Posted on 01/19/2008 7:03:47 AM PST by 1rudeboy
Networks overwhelmingly predict recession in 2008 but ignore surveys of economists showing majority do not expect recession.
Recent polls of economists by leading financial publications have predicted a less than 50-percent chance that the U.S. economy will enter a recession in 2008. But the media’s coverage of “recession” makes it seem inevitable.
“Everyone’s talking about a recession,” Amy Robach reported on the “Today” show January 12.
The broadcast media mentioned the economy or a recession in 54 stories during the first two weeks of 2008. The segments predicted a recession or reported fears of a looming recession four times as often as they reported optimism about the New Year, even though recent surveys of economists put the chance of recession at 40 percent to 42 percent.
ABC, CBS and NBC reported “more signs of a looming recession,” “deepening troubles,” “new fuel for recession fears,” “rattled consumers,” “an economy on edge” and “bracing for recession,” or some scary variation a total of 32 times. They mentioned positive predictions in only eight stories.
“And the major concern heading into 2008 is that big ‘R’ word, recession,” David Muir ominously reported on January 1. “When does the mortgage mess, the housing market, lead to that?” he asked, assuming that a mortgage “mess” inevitably leads to recession.
ABC reported “growing concerns the economy may be heading toward recession.” CBS mentioned that “when companies stop hiring, it’s often a sign we’re slipping into a recession.” NBC noticed that in a speech about the economy, President Bush “stopped short of warning that America may be sliding into a recession.”
On the “Evening News” January 9, Anthony Mason reported that Goldman Sachs became the third “major Wall Street firm in the past week to forecast a recession,” neglecting to mention a survey of economists showing most did not predict a recession.
Ignoring the Polls
A survey of 62 economists conducted by Bloomberg News and released January 9 showed those economists predicting 1.5-percent growth in the first half of 2008. While that rate of expansion would be the weakest since the last nine months of 2001, it would still be growth. The economists also put the chances of recession in 2008 at 40 percent.
A similar survey by the Wall Street Journal found comparable results. In that poll economists put the chance of recession at 42 percent and predicted growth of less than 2 percent.
Did the media focus on these polls? Not exactly.
“Right now most economists are saying you’ve got to worry about growth first and foremost,” Erin Burnett reported on the “Today” show January 10.
Maria Bartiromo’s “Nightly News” report on January 11 featured interviews with three people predicting a recession. She didn’t bother to find anyone to add optimism to the discussion.
One of her sources – Chicago-area roofing and siding shop owner Carl Maturo – said he’s had to lay off 14 employees in the past six weeks. The report didn’t say how winter weather could have affected that industry.
Just in time for the elections!
It is going to rain, too!
Like clockwork.
Wishful thinking?
Before we go into the “inevitable” recession I want my $1600 so I can buy that handgun, bullet and bottle of whiskey.
Guess that’s it then.
I have to admit, I could use the $800 . . . but fortunately I’m still of the mind that other FReepers shouldn’t just give it to me.
So does this mean the smart money is on not having a recession?? I think so.
What a surprise and right before an election too,
Oh, no!!! How will I ever provide for my furbabies!!!
We’re at the point now that even if we don’t meet the official criteria for recession, people will still think we’re in one. IOW-They just make up their own personal criteria and call it that by fiat.
Here’s a question, when has any group of economists actually predicted a recession?
None, because they all work for wall street they are paid to be cheerleaders.
Obama said he would give everyone a check for $250 now and $250 later if the economy worsens. I still cannot believe he said that. I keep thinking it has to be a dream
This confirms that there will be NO recession.
LLS
a surprise and right before an election
Didn’t they hold Mr. Clinton’s recession off till after the election?
What if mama needs a new pair of shoes?
Very good article with the cautious optimism noted at the end of it. I like the clip (brief) of Hillary and Harry POS Reid forecasting a recession. That alone should cause optimism.
With the Iraq doom & gloom card not useful anymore, it’s back to, “It’s the economy, stupid.” It worked in ‘92. Watch the economy/recession termites come out of the woodwork. Watch the politicians who amplify that message.
Thanks for posting, 1rudeboy.
I think they did.
Maybe the media are right this time. At least for themselves. I heard McDonalds is always hiring, and the media are great flippers. They should fit right in.
WE'RE DOOMED!!!
Women, Minorities and Poor Hardest Hit.
BUSH'S FAULT!
Saying a recession is inevitable does not mean it is inevitable.
But whether there is a recession or not, the Democraticans are ABSOLUTELY the worst people in the world to have in a position to “manage” the economy. If there is not already a recession, they shall for sure put us into one, and if there really is a world-class recession coming up, they have no viable means by which to combat the effects.
The “Great Depression” would not have been all that great, and would have ended in about 1935 or so, if the “New Deal” had not prolonged it another five years. This country was in a worse depression in 1938, than it was in 1932.
We ARE in a recession and have been form a while IMHO.
But its word wide.
Fuel prices have raised the cost of everything.
I’m no economist, so I don’t know if thats a real recession, all I know is my dollar don’t go as far anymore, and hasn’t for about 6-9 months.
Our dumbass polititions addressed this by passing an energy bill that will force me to use CFL light bulbs and ethanol and cars with higher cafe standards (and higher prices)
I could be full of it, but it seems to me all this is being caused by the cost of fuel, that and a raising minimum wage while most folks wages remain stagnent.
Higher labor costs and higher fuel cost = higher cost of products.
I think the answer is to start drilling, and building Nuke power plants and refinerys, and for Crying out loud...get rid of ethanol! its 3/4 of the BTU’s for the same price as gasoline AND it ties our food cost directly to energy markets
Isn't this 'talking down' the economy?
People of common sense nearly unanimous:
It is inevitable that the media will declare a recession in an election year.
Investment tips for 2008 For all of you with any money left, be aware of the next expected mergers so that you can get in on the ground floor and make some BIG bucks.
Watch for these consolidations in 2008.
1.) Hale Business Systems, Mary Kay Cosmetics, Fuller Brush, and W. R. Grace Co. Will merge and become:
Hale, Mary, Fuller, Grace.
2.) Polygram Records, Warner Bros., and Zesta Crackers join forces and become:
Poly, Warner Cracker.
3.) 3M will merge with Goodyear and become: MMMGood.
4. Zippo Manufacturing, Audi Motors, Dofasco, and Dakota Mining will merge and become: ZipAudiDoDa.
5 . FedEx is expected to join its competitor, UPS, and become: FedUP.
6. Fairchild Electronics and Honeywell Computers will become: Fairwell Honeychild.
7. Grey Poupon and Docker Pants are expected to become: Poupon Pants.
8. Knotts Berry Farm and the National Organization of Women will become: Knott NOW!
And finally .
9. Victoria ‘s Secret and Smith & Wesson will merge under the new name:
Titty Titty Bang Bang
What is most irritating is the hubris of giving Clinton credit for the e-commerce run up to a bubble but never admitting it was a bubble and calling it Clinton prosperity, as if Algore really did invent it.
L0L!
We're not, it's your money (if you pay federal taxes).
BWAAAHaaHaaa! Dammit! you owe me a new keyboard!
''Economists have predicted 17 of the last 4 recessions.''
I did not pay federal income tax last year (legally), but you are correct . . . nothing like the gubmint saying “keep the change.”
I think there's also a possibility that it will CAUSE a recession. I own a business and business is definitely down from this time last year. A lot of my customers are voicing similar concerns about the economy - it's all they hear in the news. They're uncertain about what's going to happen a year from now - because no one has any idea who's going to be running the country & a lot of us have very warranted concerns it could be Hillary Clinton.
The drive-by media is still very powerful. Most people do not get their news like we do here on Free Republic - they let Matt Lauer, Barbara Walters and Oprah tell them how it is.
At present the US economy lacks Gravitas.
And (all together now) - ONLY A DEMOCRAT CAN SAVE IT!
That’s from Wall Street Executives, they are even more willfully blind to reality than their employees.
Well except for Goldman, it’s not a mistake they are the only financial company that keeps making money.
“media nearly unanimous: recession inevitable.”
the brilliant, clairvoyant, intellectually superior, god-like, lovers of humanity in the leftist-socialist-revolutionary media have once again come to a brilliant, insightful, intellectually superior conclusion about the evil bush-inspired economy that has created so much injustice.
Translation :
“Damn! the Surge worked and we can’t deny it any longer so we’ll just ignore it and see if we can’t talk up a recession to hang round George Bush’s Neck”
GS are and have been crooks for at least a decade, and likely longer.
I saw a quote by Teddy Roosevelt on your personal page that I especially liked, and I think is applicable to this election. This one:
"It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbled, or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena; whose face is marred by the dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs and comes short again and again; who knows the great enthusiasms, the great devotions and spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best, knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who, at worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly; so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who know neither victory or defeat." (THEODORE ROOSEVELT Paris Sorbonne,1910)
Those are the strongest words I have ever seen in print, and I have them in eyeshot on my office wall.
Teddy Roosevelt is my favorite president. He wasn’t all republican, but he was all conservative
I should have that speech displayed at home as well.
Perhaps I should get a tattoo...
;0)
I own three businesses... all doing better than expected. I guess it matters where you live.
LLS
A lie told often enough is eventually perceived as the truth.
Well....If *all* the “mainstream” media are saying it... It’s sure to be a lie.
In my view, a recession is caused by the people...People quit buying because someone told them there is a Recession...And that creates the Recession...
And THAT refusal to buy puts people out of work...
Just think how rough it’s going to be on the Chinese...
I had to do a speech on an historical figure & I did mine on Teddy Roosevelt. You’re right, he’s a fascinating man.
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