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On Louisiana's Caucuses Tonight (Ambinder sees Romney Win)
The Atlantic.com ^ | 01/22/08 | Marc Ambinder

Posted on 01/22/2008 6:45:45 PM PST by Reaganesque

Louisiana was thought to be a battle between Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney.

Romney has the support of two congressmen and announced teams in every district. It is winner take all by congressional district and majority receives at-large delegates.

It's the only Southern caucus, so conservative conservatives will probablt(sic) turn out.

This is Romney's to lose...

Another gold medal... albeit in the state equivalent of Olympic curling, but still...

(Excerpt) Read more at marcambinder.theatlantic.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Louisiana
KEYWORDS: ambinder; caucuses; elections; la2008; louisiana; romney
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Hey, every win counts. Delegates are delegates. Go Mitt!

Oh, and in honor of the mention of curling, I post for your viewing pleasure: Weird Al's...Canadian Idiot

1 posted on 01/22/2008 6:45:47 PM PST by Reaganesque
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To: 1curiousmind; Abbeville Conservative; ajay_kumar; alwaysconservative; AmericanMade1776; ...
Mitt Ping!



Mitt Romney Ping List

• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List


2 posted on 01/22/2008 6:47:31 PM PST by Reaganesque (Romney ...is manifestly the best candidate. - Ann Coulter [01/17/08])
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To: Reaganesque

God bless Louisiana!!!!!!


3 posted on 01/22/2008 6:48:06 PM PST by Romneyfor President2008 (I'm a Mittman who loves the Mittens)
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To: Reaganesque

I feel a definite shift coming.


4 posted on 01/22/2008 6:49:22 PM PST by GOP_Lady (I'm a MITTen!)
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To: Romneyfor President2008

I am so proud of Mitt Romney!!! The way he holds his head high in spite of the hateful cheap shots and media jabs. He will be a great President. I can’t wait to see him debate Hillary.


5 posted on 01/22/2008 6:50:19 PM PST by Saundra Duffy (Romney Rocks!!!)
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To: Reaganesque

I would have thought that Huckabee would do well there given he’s from a neighboring state.

There are a lot of southern Baptists in the northern part of the state - fertile ground for Huckabee.


6 posted on 01/22/2008 6:51:09 PM PST by MplsSteve
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To: MplsSteve

I thinkg the media has greatly over stated the opposition coming from evangelicals. In MI, Mitt actually got more evangelical votes than Huckabee and has had significant support from them elsewhere as well. The MSM wants it to be a big problem because that’s what their vision of what a Christian Conservative is: an intolerant hater. While they do exist, they are a minority and a shrinking one at that.


7 posted on 01/22/2008 6:54:57 PM PST by Reaganesque (Romney ...is manifestly the best candidate. - Ann Coulter [01/17/08])
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To: GOP_Lady

I can see the shift coming myself. It is as if people are getting tired of the back and forth and want to unite the party behind one man....Mitt Romney!


8 posted on 01/22/2008 7:01:02 PM PST by TheLion
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To: Reaganesque

Whats this? I thought Romney could not carry a Southern State. Looks like some Freepers are wrong again.


9 posted on 01/22/2008 7:01:15 PM PST by Parley Baer
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To: Reaganesque
Okay. I'm going to bring up my prediction posted in Dec. 2005. I have held off openly backing Romney, and even considered Fred Thompson. Didn't want anyone to think I was backing Romney just because I predicted him to win. It was the "little voice" in my head that said, "There is your next president", the first time I heard him speaking on TV.

Democrats Seek Records on Romney, Others Posted by WVNan to TruthNtegrity On News/Activism 12/30/2005 2:32:54 PM EST • 18 of 24 Prediction: If Mitt Romney runs and there is no "major" scandal, he will win the presidency.

10 posted on 01/22/2008 7:01:53 PM PST by WVNan
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To: MplsSteve

Does this mean that Catholics are generally anti-Huck?


11 posted on 01/22/2008 7:03:15 PM PST by tortdog
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To: TheLion
The future...


12 posted on 01/22/2008 7:06:31 PM PST by Romneyfor President2008 (I'm a Mittman who loves the Mittens)
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To: MplsSteve
I would have thought that Huckabee would do well

I'm waiting for the guy to willow down to single digits. I cant see him drawing any new supporters, from anybody else.

13 posted on 01/22/2008 7:06:35 PM PST by Nonstatist
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To: Reaganesque

I hope that you are right.


14 posted on 01/22/2008 7:08:14 PM PST by tortdog
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To: GOP_Lady

Mitt is on the move! This race is starting to break loose.

There are a certain number of people that are negative, but the majority seem to be breaking for Romney now.


15 posted on 01/22/2008 7:13:58 PM PST by claudiustg (You know it. I know it. I'm optiMITTstic!)
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To: Romneyfor President2008

That picture says a 1000 words! The baton will be passed.


16 posted on 01/22/2008 7:16:46 PM PST by TheLion
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To: GOP_Lady

As this race shrinks down to two candidates, the contrast will be apparent and the choice clear. I believe that Mitt will continue to climb, while McCain will fade.


17 posted on 01/22/2008 7:16:51 PM PST by CASchack
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To: Parley Baer

-—Whats this? I thought Romney could not carry a Southern State. Looks like some Freepers are wrong again.-—

A good case in point would be Al Smith, a Catholic from New York, who carried the South running against Hoover in 28.


18 posted on 01/22/2008 7:19:33 PM PST by claudiustg (You know it. I know it. I'm optiMITTstic!)
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To: TheLion
Would you mind posting "the picture" for us pink MITTens?
19 posted on 01/22/2008 7:20:32 PM PST by GOP_Lady (I'm a MITTen!)
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To: Saundra Duffy

20 posted on 01/22/2008 7:20:52 PM PST by TheLion
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To: Reaganesque

I heard that Huckabee has already pulled back some in Florida. If Romney takes Louisiana tonight, it will be due to his marvelous organization, and determination to succeed. With Fred out of the race (who has my everlasting thanks for having run his dignified campaign as a conservative and adult), Mitt is going to be much stronger in FL as well.

And his statement on Fred’s withdrawal was very classy, too.


21 posted on 01/22/2008 7:22:50 PM PST by alwaysconservative (Democrat party: When you don't stand for something, you'll fall for anything!)
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To: Reaganesque

22 posted on 01/22/2008 7:25:03 PM PST by GOP_Lady (I'm a MITTen!)
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To: GOP_Lady

23 posted on 01/22/2008 7:25:03 PM PST by TheLion
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To: TheLion

:-) :-) :-)


24 posted on 01/22/2008 7:25:20 PM PST by GOP_Lady (I'm a MITTen!)
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To: Romneyfor President2008

God bless Fred Thompson. Go Mitt!


25 posted on 01/22/2008 7:27:00 PM PST by stocksthatgoup (Number1FredHeadSwitch2Mitt)
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To: MplsSteve

it’s my understanding that they only chose delegates tonight and there’s a primary on the 29th. If one candidate gets 50 percent plus one on that day, it’s winner take all. if not, the the delagates are free to vote as they want.


26 posted on 01/22/2008 7:28:13 PM PST by kcmom
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To: Reaganesque

DailyPaul is reporting that Paul is winning in the delegates.


27 posted on 01/22/2008 7:29:25 PM PST by Extremely Extreme Extremist
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist

Is there nowhere the results are being posted?


28 posted on 01/22/2008 7:32:48 PM PST by Timeout (I hate MediaCrats! ......and trial lawyers.)
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To: TheLion

Mrs romney really needs a different hairdo. THat’s circa 1984.


29 posted on 01/22/2008 7:33:39 PM PST by mamelukesabre
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To: Timeout
I called WAFB in Baton Rouge and haven't heard anything.

Nothing in Google News either.

30 posted on 01/22/2008 7:34:42 PM PST by Extremely Extreme Extremist
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To: tortdog
Does this mean that Catholics are generally anti-Huck?

I think that the loud but vocal Mormon haters have driven a lot of Catholics to Mitt because they understand these same yahoos view Catholics as second-class Christians.

They leave their warped anti-Catholic tracts all over the shopping malls in the area in which I live, predominately Catholic.

They look and read surprisingly similar to the anti-Mormon tracts I've collected in Utah or other places where Mormons are the predominant religion.

Both tracts give a Grand Rapids, Michigan address.

Fairly ironic that these yahoos might actually end up getting Romney nominated and elected, isn't it?

Remember the Democrat lawyers high-fiving each other during the Florida recount debacle in 2000 after disqualifying a large number of military votes? Remember how foolish they looked a couple weeks later when they went back wanting to count every vote of dimpled or hanging chads in selected districts?

Remember the Mormon hating bigots high fiving each other after they put Huckabee over the top in Iowa? Won't it be priceless when the Evangelical Christian Conservatives they claim to own reject Huckabee in growing numbers as the primaries move along?

God must have a sense of humor!

31 posted on 01/22/2008 7:34:43 PM PST by Vigilanteman (Are there any men left in Washington? Or are there only cowards? Ahmad Shah Massoud)
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To: GOP_Lady

32 posted on 01/22/2008 7:36:05 PM PST by TheLion
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To: Vigilanteman
Catholics (like myself) don’t wear their religion on their sleeves.
33 posted on 01/22/2008 7:36:14 PM PST by GOP_Lady (I'm a MITTen!)
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To: TheLion

:-) :-) (Notice the ranking — LOL). Thanks!


34 posted on 01/22/2008 7:36:47 PM PST by GOP_Lady (I'm a MITTen!)
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To: tortdog

I have no idea.

But I see Protestants and evangelicals as being a natural source of support (for Huckabee) in the northern part of Louisiana.

I’d be curious as to who Catholic GOP caucus-goers are supporting in louisiana.


35 posted on 01/22/2008 7:37:01 PM PST by MplsSteve
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To: kcmom

There’s three parts to the LA primaries. The first part is the caucus. The second part is the primary. Then they have a statewide convention.

At least this is how I understand it.

The one I don’t quite understand it hawaii. It’s suposed to start this friday I think. And it lasts a week, I think. I don’t know if they just keep the polling places open for a week straight to make it easier on working folks that are busy, or if they actually caucus for several days, or what the heck they are doing.


36 posted on 01/22/2008 7:37:26 PM PST by mamelukesabre
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To: Reaganesque

In 1996, it was called a caucus but it was more like a primary. However there were a limited number of polling locations — I guess maybe they were run by the party rather than the state. However there were very long lines — Gramm was thought to be the most popular, but it was the Buchanan supporters that were willing to wait 5 hours to vote. I admit I wasn’t among the willing.


37 posted on 01/22/2008 7:37:29 PM PST by scrabblehack
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To: Reaganesque
The MSM's dismissing of supposedly "uncontested" races is remarkably stupid.

Did they never pause to think why these races are uncontested? Hmmm? Could it be that no one decided to compete with Mitt in states like Louisiana, Nevada, and Wyoming because no one thought they had a chance?

The fact Mitt's opponents are choosing not to compete with him in so many states says a lot about his strength as a national candidate.

Too bad reporters are too stupid to realize this.

38 posted on 01/22/2008 7:37:40 PM PST by curiosity
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To: mamelukesabre

I guess that shows how conservative she is?


39 posted on 01/22/2008 7:41:24 PM PST by Parley Baer
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To: Reaganesque

Guys, I’m going to say this was some reservation...

Apparently the two parties that are out in full force tonight are Mitt Romney and.... Ron Paul.

Apparently 600 people showed up at a Paul gathering in Baton Rouge. Yes, a college town. But according to sources, the concensus is that Romney and Paul are the most visible.

States like this with little press coverage worry me a bit...

Perhaps too much.

But recall Paul got 2nd in Nevada....


40 posted on 01/22/2008 7:43:12 PM PST by CaspersGh0sts
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To: Vigilanteman

It is interesting, isn’t it? Mormons and Catholics get along just fine. Seems the people picking the fights aren’t us.


41 posted on 01/22/2008 7:43:42 PM PST by tantiboh
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To: MplsSteve

“There are a lot of southern Baptists in the northern part of the state - fertile ground for Huckabee.”

You would think so...

But apparently Huckabee has very little presense here and very little organization. I don’t know how things are going to stack up. The sessions are closed now.

Results should start coming in....


42 posted on 01/22/2008 7:44:39 PM PST by CaspersGh0sts
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To: Reaganesque

I’ve personally been an agnostic, then a fundie and I married a Catholic and eventually decided to join the Catholic Church. I’m not as faithful as I’d like to be or ought to be. From where I’m standing I think both flavors of Christianity view Mormonism as a cult. I don’t mean to hurt anyones feelings but that’s the way I see it.

http://www.catholic.com/library/Mormon_Stumpers.asp


43 posted on 01/22/2008 7:44:55 PM PST by ToryNotion
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To: Reaganesque; redgirlinabluestate
I've just returned from the Louisiana Caucus in Baton Rouge where I was running as a Mitt Romney delegate. Here are my first impressions.

Three campaigns had a presence. They were the Ron Paul campaign, the Mitt Romney campaign, and the John McCain campaign. In addition, a group calling itself "Pro-Life, Pro-family" was supporting a slate of delegates.

Of these groups, Ron Paul's campaign had the most visible presence. People with Ron Paul T-shirts, signs, and buttons were everywhere. Many of them were college students, but I saw a good mix of Ron Paul supporters of every age. Some dressed very casually as young people tend to do, and others looked more conventional. Ron Paul was in Louisiana on Monday, and visiting the state allowed him to mobilize his people.

John McCain's people weren't quite as visible in the crowd. The McCain stickers and buttons weren't as obvious. They seemed to be an older group of people. However, no voter could approach the building without being offered a card with the John McCain slate at least once. Many of the people coming to vote were obviously John McCain supporters. They had their card with the McCain slate, and they weren't interested in receiving a card from any other candidate. John McCain has received some high profile endorsements in the state, and those endorsements will carry some votes.

Our group was a pretty nice mixture. We had a couple of kids who walked around the parking lot with Mitt Romney signs. We had a good mix of ages in our supporters. Some people came to the caucus looking for one of us to provide the list of Romney delegate candidates, and others were less sure but at least willing to listen.

The "Pro-Life, Pro-Family" group also had a good representation. Quite a few people passing me had the pro-life list and were not really interested in looking at another list.

Some of the people on the ballot are fixtures in the Baton Rouge Republican community. One man running in my district was the GOP candidate for U.S. Senate in 1996, and he barely lost that race. Many people thought that Mary Landrieu won only through fraud. I believe he's uncommitted to any candidate at this time, but I'm certain that he'll win one of the 15 delegate positions from our district. Another man has run for several statewide offices and may have even held one of those offices recently. He was on the Mitt Romney slate as well as being on the pro-life slate. I'm certain that he'll win one of the positions. A few others seem to be big names in the local GOP community, so I'm sure they'll win as well.

Beyond those people, I couldn't tell who had the best turnout. I won't be surprised to see the Ron Paul people win most of the positions in the 6th District. Of the 15 positions in the 6th district, we may end up with three or four supporting Mitt Romney, four or five supporting John McCain, four or five supporting Ron Paul, and a few uncommitted delegates. Maybe we'll do better even better, but I can't report an easy win for us tonight. I will be very surprised if I'm one of the Mitt Romney supporters who wins.

Overall, people were nice. A few of the Ron Paul supporters were hard core and did a little shouting. Most of them were young people who were fun. As the incoming voters slowed, I spent some time talking to a few of them. I've been an official volunteer on a Ron Paul congressional campaign, so they couldn't say that I was someone who didn't understand and never listened to Dr. Paul. Overall, they were a good group. I also enjoyed talking to other Mitt Romney supporters. I've not done any live campaigning with the Romney people, and this event was fun.

Bill

44 posted on 01/22/2008 7:45:24 PM PST by WFTR (Liberty isn't for cowards)
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To: CaspersGh0sts

~”But recall Paul got 2nd in Nevada....”~

While technically true, you’d have to agree that that’s overstating the situation a bit.


45 posted on 01/22/2008 7:46:34 PM PST by tantiboh
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To: claudiustg
Rush broke for Mitt today. Said his brother endorsed Fred and Fred pulled out today. He suggested his brother endorse Mclame and huckster and hopefully get the same result as Fred.
46 posted on 01/22/2008 7:46:43 PM PST by primatreat ( Hold political and scientific idiots responsible by taking their money away!)
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To: Reaganesque

Ron Paul’s supporters seem to have organized pretty well for the ‘uncontested’ Louisiana caucuses.


47 posted on 01/22/2008 7:46:44 PM PST by ToryNotion
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To: CaspersGh0sts

~”Results should start coming in....”~

That’s all well and good... but where? I can’t find coverage of this anywhere!


48 posted on 01/22/2008 7:47:52 PM PST by tantiboh
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist
You can check my post #44 for a recap of how things were at Baton Rouge. I don't have any numbers, but your folks made a good showing tonight. Dr. Paul's trip to Louisiana is going to help him a great deal.

Bill

49 posted on 01/22/2008 7:47:59 PM PST by WFTR (Liberty isn't for cowards)
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To: tantiboh
That’s all well and good... but where? I can’t find coverage of this anywhere!

Here are the official results page:

http://www400.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcms2&rqsdta=020908

I'm honestly a bit worried about his one. Paul had the ground game in place for this one...
50 posted on 01/22/2008 7:51:22 PM PST by CaspersGh0sts
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