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POLL: ARG Florida Primary (McCain leads by 7)
Pollster.com ^ | 1/22/08 | Pollster.com

Posted on 01/22/2008 7:34:09 PM PST by Rumierules

POLL: ARG Florida Primary

A new American Research Group Florida survey (conducted 1/20 through 1/21) finds:

29 McCain 22 Romney 17 Huckabee 16 Giuliani 6 Thompson 6 Paul 1 Keyes 3 Undecided

(Excerpt) Read more at pollster.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: elections; fl2008; giuliani; mccain; poll; romney
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Ugh
1 posted on 01/22/2008 7:34:09 PM PST by Rumierules
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To: Rumierules

well, this will be the end of the road for rudy.


2 posted on 01/22/2008 7:36:27 PM PST by ari-freedom (The United States shall guarantee to every State in this Union a Republican Form of Government)
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To: Rumierules

Watch Thompson win Florida.


3 posted on 01/22/2008 7:36:50 PM PST by Perdogg (Elections have consequences)
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To: Rumierules
Who cares?
Let the jackals have the leavings of the liberal GOP.
4 posted on 01/22/2008 7:37:20 PM PST by HuntsvilleTxVeteran (Rudy,Romney,McCain, Huckabee will send a self-abused stomped elephant to the DRNC.)
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To: Rumierules

ARGH!


5 posted on 01/22/2008 7:37:32 PM PST by Paleo Conservative
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To: Rumierules

ARG has been as off and as Pro-McCain as it comes...

But what we’re seeing is Giuliani tanking...

Romney does have an advantage with Thompson bowing out. It would depend on how much of that vote goes to Huckabee...


6 posted on 01/22/2008 7:38:01 PM PST by CaspersGh0sts
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To: Rumierules
So the bumbling idiot from Arizona is ahead of the bumbling idiot from Massachusetts. Do tell!
7 posted on 01/22/2008 7:38:20 PM PST by org.whodat (What's the difference between a Democrat and a republican????)
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To: Rumierules

ARG is crap, but this poll is roughly in line with most of the others, McCain on top with Mitt perhaps moving up a bit.


8 posted on 01/22/2008 7:39:02 PM PST by LiveFree99
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To: Rumierules
The polls don't yet reflect Fred's withdrawal from the race. Romney should benefit substantially. And Huckabee is short of cash, and so has to deemphasize his campaign in Florida—which should also benefit Romney more than McCain.
9 posted on 01/22/2008 7:39:26 PM PST by sourcery (Electile Disfunction: The inability to get excited about any of the available candidates)
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To: Rumierules

McCain’s going to get even more of Giuliani’s 16 points by primary day as well, I bet.


10 posted on 01/22/2008 7:41:04 PM PST by Catphish
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To: Rumierules
"Giuliani and McCain are tied at 28% each among early voters, followed by Romney at 21% and Huckabee at 12%. McCain leads among in-person voters with 29%, followed by Romney at 22%, Huckabee at 18%, and Giuliani at 13%."

Link to ARG Poll

11 posted on 01/22/2008 7:41:22 PM PST by FocusNexus
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To: org.whodat

....and the bumbling idiot from TX and the bumbling idiot from AR and the bumbling idiot from NY and the bumbling idiot from TN...wait...he gave up and set a fine example for the rest of us. If it isn’t Mitt it isn’t going to be anybody.


12 posted on 01/22/2008 7:42:05 PM PST by killermedic ("Est Sularus uth Mithas")
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To: Perdogg

lol


13 posted on 01/22/2008 7:42:48 PM PST by Mr. Brightside
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To: sourcery

The polls don’t yet reflect Fred’s withdrawal from the race. Romney should benefit substantially. And Huckabee is short of cash, and so has to deemphasize his campaign in Florida—which should also benefit Romney more than McCain.
___________________________________________________

I think Huckabee tanking helps McCain more. Huckabee supporters aren’t conservatives, really. They are more one issue voters. Some that may have voted for Huckabee may now vote for McCain because the perceive him to be more authentic than Romney and because Huckabee obvious likes McCain much more that Romney.


14 posted on 01/22/2008 7:43:54 PM PST by Rumierules
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To: Rumierules

Aarrrggggg is right. But the poll was pre-Fred and the question is “where will that percentage go?” Doubtful it goes to McLame.


15 posted on 01/22/2008 7:45:40 PM PST by NonValueAdded (What Would Hobson Choose?)
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To: Rumierules

ARGH!!!!


16 posted on 01/22/2008 7:45:45 PM PST by Clintonfatigued (You can't be serious about national security unless you're serious about border security)
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To: Rumierules

Come on people, when will you learn that ARG is at the bottom of the reliability scale for polling?


17 posted on 01/22/2008 7:46:08 PM PST by elizabetty ("Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm." .Ralph Waldo Emerson)
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To: CaspersGh0sts

ARG had Huckabee beating McCain by 7 percent in South Carolina in their last poll...the only polling company to have Huckabee ahead. Their track record blows.


18 posted on 01/22/2008 7:47:26 PM PST by Azzurri
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Comment #19 Removed by Moderator

To: elizabetty

Right. The ARG polls are for amusement only. Totally out of lunch.


20 posted on 01/22/2008 7:48:48 PM PST by Parley Baer
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To: killermedic
I believe the words you are looking for is “none of the above”.
21 posted on 01/22/2008 7:49:03 PM PST by org.whodat (What's the difference between a Democrat and a republican????)
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To: elizabetty

Come on people, when will you learn that ARG is at the bottom of the reliability scale for polling?
______________________________________________

Does anyone have a snapshot of the various polls on the day of the respective primaries? (Iowa, NH, Michigan, South Carolina, and Nevada).


22 posted on 01/22/2008 7:49:04 PM PST by Rumierules
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To: Rumierules

Who knows, maybe Giuliani will send Pat Robertson down to FL to convince Huckabee voters to move to Rudy.


23 posted on 01/22/2008 7:50:41 PM PST by Kuksool
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To: Rumierules

Well, atleast Giuliani is tanking. That’s a silver-lining.


24 posted on 01/22/2008 7:51:23 PM PST by Tears of a Clown
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To: Rumierules

ARG was correct about Iowa and NH. ARG was wrong about MI and SC. However, ARG’s tracking polls did show Huckabee gaining ground in SC and Mitt Romney gaining ground in MI. So use ARG as a method to detect trends.


25 posted on 01/22/2008 7:53:16 PM PST by Kuksool
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To: sourcery

I don’t see any reasonably large state on Super Tuesday that is more favorable for Romney than Florida. So, Romney better win Florida. Otherwise, he will just be hoping to finish second almost everywhere and to prevent McCain from grabbing enough delegates to win it outright.


26 posted on 01/22/2008 7:59:02 PM PST by Rumierules
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To: ari-freedom

This same polling group was way off in South Carolina.


27 posted on 01/22/2008 8:01:19 PM PST by Arizona Carolyn
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To: CaspersGh0sts

Romney, He’s an Eight Year Man (‘Henry the Eighth I Am’ by Herman’s Hermits)

Rom-eny, he’s an eight year man… Eight year man says Coulter’s clan…
He’s goanna run for a second term more, Al gore’s hopin’ he’ll be gone in four...
And everyone is for Rom-eny… Never wanted Giuli or McCain…
They’re all waitin’ savior Rom-eny… Rom-eny he owns the reign!

Second verse, only gets worse!

Rom-eny, has an ‘eight year plan’… Four years more will he demand!
We’re gonna vote ‘em for a second term more, unless he gets us into war…
Then we’ll go down with ol’ Rom-eny… every GOP’r will be done…
They’ll be hatin’ us for eternity… “Rom-eny n Bush are one!”


28 posted on 01/22/2008 8:01:40 PM PST by RTO (What will you do without freedom?)
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To: JMack

McCain and Hillary are so much alike they could be running mates.


29 posted on 01/22/2008 8:03:16 PM PST by Arizona Carolyn
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To: Rumierules

Alan Keyes is still in the race?? With a percentage??


30 posted on 01/22/2008 8:03:55 PM PST by WiseGuyF686
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To: Rumierules
Free Image Hosting at allyoucanupload.com
31 posted on 01/22/2008 8:04:49 PM PST by Plutarch
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To: Rumierules
Corrected:

"POLL: AAAAAARRRRRGGGHHHH!!!!!! Florida Primary (McCain leads by 7)"

32 posted on 01/22/2008 8:06:44 PM PST by Uncle Miltie (Amnesty! Taxes! Censorship! McCain! < / sarc>)
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To: ari-freedom
well, this will be the end of the road for rudy.

One can hope.

33 posted on 01/22/2008 8:06:57 PM PST by PAR35
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To: Rumierules
Ultimate diss.

It looks like ARG has been booted from the RCP Average .

34 posted on 01/22/2008 8:07:20 PM PST by Plutarch
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To: Paleo Conservative

Well said.


35 posted on 01/22/2008 8:07:44 PM PST by NordP (Such tough choices ahead, I'm now a "middle of the road" voter--somewhere between RUSH & Savage ;-))
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To: All

A choice in the general election between McCain and Hillary is like a choice between eating dog crap and cat crap...


36 posted on 01/22/2008 8:08:39 PM PST by UCFRoadWarrior (Support the ABM Treaty...Anyone But McCain)
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Comment #37 Removed by Moderator

To: sourcery
The polls don't yet reflect Fred's withdrawal from the race.

Some folks had already voted before he pulled out.

38 posted on 01/22/2008 8:11:31 PM PST by PAR35
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To: Rumierules

I wonder if Rudi’s going to be the next to drop out. I have been very surprised by his strategy of putting all of his efforts into Florida. (But Fred was the candidate who was ‘lazy’.)

When I walked from my apt. to the park here where I live I used to see a few Rudy 2008 signs, but they’ve all been taken down.


39 posted on 01/22/2008 8:23:39 PM PST by Theresawithanh (Mitt's not IT for me...)
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To: Rumierules

The good news here is that ARG polls are notoriously crappy.

OTOH, if Rudy fades too much it will probably help McCain.


40 posted on 01/22/2008 8:23:57 PM PST by WOSG (Proamnesty-antiBushtaxcuts-proCO2caps-CFR-RINO John McCain delenda est!)
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To: CaspersGh0sts

I gues we want Huck to nosedive more than Rudy, and have those go to Romney.

I cant believe with all the economic uncertainty people are going to trust the economically suspect/illiterate McCain.


41 posted on 01/22/2008 8:25:23 PM PST by WOSG (Proamnesty-antiBushtaxcuts-proCO2caps-CFR-RINO John McCain delenda est!)
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To: Rumierules
Rasmussen Poll is more trustworthy than the lib-oriented ARG poll.

Survey of 754 Likely GOP Voters
January 20, 2008

Election 2008: Florida GOP Primary

Mitt Romney

25%

John McCain

20%

Rudy Giuliani

19%

Mike Huckabee

13%

Fred Thompson

12%

Ron Paul

5%

Not Sure

6%


RASMUSSEN POLL


42 posted on 01/22/2008 8:26:53 PM PST by henbane
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To: JMack

If you think that a President Bill…agh… I mean Hillary Clinton won’t go after our guns, and appoint judges all across the land that will up hold illegal bans on guns, your just flat fooling yourself… that’s a scary thought that people actually believe that she would be afraid of the NRA


43 posted on 01/22/2008 8:29:36 PM PST by PA_Country
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To: Rumierules

Rasmussen showed Romney up by 5, and adding in that most Fred supporters are uniting with Romney, SC damaged Huckabee, Florida is a closed primary, and that Romney is now campaiging primarily in Florida and has the money to outspend his opponents, I think we have very good momentum to win it.

I am optimistic.


44 posted on 01/22/2008 8:32:57 PM PST by Dragonspirit (We fight it out as good friends now, but in 2008 we UNITE against our enemy!)
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To: JMack
How can you say he isn't in the pocket of the Chinese or anyone? He is obsessed with global warming and all that entails, yet you never hear him say anything about the biggest polluters -- the Chinese or India.

It was McCain who was the swing vote on stopping ANWR back in 2002... we would be well on our way to increasing out domestic supply and keeping our money in our own country.. yet he moans about our dependence on the ME.....

Just read the article "Aboard the Double Talk Express"

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=285898399505289 snip....

Consider Michigan, home of the beleaguered American auto industry. McCain, together with Democrat John Kerry, were initial co-sponsors of the 35-mpg Corporate Average Fuel Economy mandate that just passed Congress. Estimates are that it will cost the domestic auto industry $85 billion over a decade and imperil thousands of jobs. McCain's campaign says he has never voted to increase taxes. Yet General Motors Vice Chairman Bob Lutz says the bill will add an average of $6,000 to the price of a new car, in effect a 21.4% tax hike on current average car prices.

45 posted on 01/22/2008 8:34:18 PM PST by Arizona Carolyn
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To: org.whodat
"So the bumbling idiot from Arizona is ahead of the bumbling idiot from Massachusetts. Do tell!"

I'd take Rudy over either. At least he has the balls to take on the press, the dims and the Jihadis.

I believe he'd cut taxes...he's smart enough to avoid the gun issue by leaving it to the courts...and will leave all the social issues on the doorsteps of the states.

I don't think we'd get that from the other candidates.

46 posted on 01/22/2008 8:37:27 PM PST by Mariner
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To: JMack

Mitt wants to ban Guns of “Unusual lethality”

Did he actually say that? If so when?

Isn’t “Unusual lethality” an oxymoron? Isn’t lethal about as bad as it gets? I actually had to Google lethality because I wasn’t even sure it was a word. The quote lethality end-quote of a particular gun isn’t measure by anything more than the man, or woman, pulling the trigger. “Unusual lethality” is code for ‘the guns that congress thinks the paltry citizenry should be allowed to own’. Which most of us that understand the congress, understand they don’t care much for the guns that shoot.


47 posted on 01/22/2008 8:37:47 PM PST by PA_Country
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To: PA_Country

NOOOOOOOOOOO

Other polls have Mitt leading by 7 pts

I don’t believe this one. Indys cannot vote in Florida.


48 posted on 01/22/2008 8:39:30 PM PST by JaneNC (I)
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To: Rumierules

Since Fred dropped out today, this poll does not reflect a possible shift from Fred to Romney. Romney should pick up many of those votes.


49 posted on 01/22/2008 8:42:27 PM PST by Marcella
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To: Marcella

I believe the bulk of those votes will go to Giulliani.


50 posted on 01/22/2008 8:51:14 PM PST by Mariner
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