mcCain will not have 50% of the delegates @ convention.
Posted on 01/22/2008 8:38:59 PM PST by neverdem
I just lost my reason for changing my registration from Conservative to the GOP in New York. My pick in that poll was none of the above. Slightly more than half on this forum prefers Romney as I write this.
I don't know why Fred didn't get more support, but when he got a little more than half of the support of Mike Huckabee in the South Carolina, that told Fred something. Huckabee was his main rival for the social conservative vote. I don't know what those folks in South Carolina were thinking when they voted for Huckabee, but a candidate who proposes to ban tobacco smoking and who criticizes the present administration for being too bellicose is not credible, IMHO, not to mention his otherwise populist politics.
When it comes to the general election, I'll most likely support the GOP's nominee, but if it is Romney, I won't be surprised if a lot of the "base" stays home. Some will stay home because of his religion. That's probably the worst reason not to vote for him, IMHO. Debra J. Saunders wrote today in the San Francisco Chronicle: "But don't tell me Romney is the true conservative in the race. His record reveals a solid conservative - when it has been in his interest to be one." Suffice it to say, the author barely starts to criticize Romney for all of the changes in his political positions over various social issues over the years. Should Romney win the nomination and in November, I expect as many disappointments as the current occupant of the White House.
I don't have to mention the other RINOs that are left in more ways than one. How did we get to this point where we are left with such a bunch of dismal RINOs? I don't know. The drive by media didn't help. But that is beside the point. The point is what do we do now. I say vote in the remaining primaries in a way so that we get a brokered convention. Considering what we are left with now, how could we do any worse?
Some might fear a brokered convention. I fear muddling along with any of these RINOs. David Freddoso wrote last month in National Review Online: "A brokered convention would allow for an airing of grievances for a party that has to decide its direction after a major loss." November 2006 was such a loss. Conservatives and small 'l' libertarians have just had another loss in this GOP primary season. A brokered convention could result in having a nominee we want to vote for, as opposed to voting against whoever the donkey is, after they have a nasty primary battle, or Bloomberg who's shaping up as the serious third party nominee. The left are eating their own. Fierce fighting over the minority vote may be the real surprise of the '08 Democratic race, with many blacks gravitating to Sen. Barack Obama and Hispanics to Sen. Hillary Clinton.
A brokered convention could take advantage of another fracture in the donkeys and appeal to a great many folks sick of endless illegal immigration while our entitlement and social programs are undermining our finances. Another third party effort from the right, e.g. Constitution Party, would be courting disaster even if Bloomberg draws votes only from the left and center, IMHO.
Well I think we need to wait and see if someone has enough delegates after all the state elections first. First one to 1078 will be the nominee. Can’t really change the rules after they are made. If a person does not have enough delegates then a convention is the way to go.
BTTT for later.
Vote in the primaries so that none of them have the required number. These guys are for the birds.
Well, if you are social conservative, why would you vote for any of the three frontrunners?
It’s like the GOP has decided they can safely diss their most motivated and cohesive voting bloc....and it’s going to come back and bite them.
Wasted rant.
There will NOT be a brokered convention. No point pining for it, as it would end up just getting Hillary elected anyway. We are better off without it.
But it won’t happen. Here’s why.
Florida is winner take all. McCain is in the lead, Romney is #2. If Romney wins, he will have a clear majority of delegates so far and will have the momentum to take many states including California, and will have the money to effectively be the only one funding a candidacy through the latter primaries. With no competition, he can easily rack up the needed wins.
If McCain wins, he wont have a majority of delegates immediately, but will sweep the board on Feb 5th and get enough to be on the way to a majority.
Either Mitt Romney or John McCain will pick up most of the delegates by March and will be the nominee.
Oh, and Huck has zero chance and Rudy has zero chance. They are fading in polls as we speak and as people recognize that this is a two man race soon to be a 1 man race.
Pick the better of those two and stand by your man. One of them will be the nominee.
End of story.
"If I am not for myself, then who will be for me?"
Thompson exuded diffidence.
Where is the updated list of delegates each candidate has so far? I can’t find the link I had for it....thanks in advance
Romney will be fine, despite the hysterics of some blinded Romney-haters on FR.
He has more conservative support in the media, on TV, talk radio, and in the Republican base than anyone else.
He is already leading the popular vote, the delegate vote, and the number of state wins.
So, he made a few dumb statements two decades ago which have been twisted and distorted by hysterical romney-haters. Big Deal.
Just think if all conservatives demanded purity from birth till today --- the conservative movement would be dead in the water because NO ONE is 100% acceptable to everyone else.
Romney will attract women, minorities, the intelligent, whites, blacks, Hispanics, and everyone else -- especially once people get a whiff of Hillary or Bomb-o Brack-a.
No need to apologize. You made good points.
However, I fear a brokered convention for one reason. A losing candidate (or their supporters) will likely go public, claiming that the nomination was finagled (sp?) away from them via unseemly methods.
The MSM will jump on that story like white on rice or stink on...well, you know what I mean. I see them trying to portray our nominee as someone who won via underhanded methods which therefore taints them from the start.
Combine that with the possibility of masses of anti-war (and anti-GOP) protestors outside possibly fighting with the police and/or engaging in civil disobedience - and it’ll be like Chicago 1968 all over again.
I have been hoping for a brokered convention for nearly a month now. Best option the GOP has right now...JFK
A brokered convention is where a small group of zealots demands Duncan Hunter be appointed the Republican nominee.
Then the party does down to devastating defeat.
/sarc
“So, he made a few dumb statements two decades ago which have been twisted and distorted by hysterical romney-haters. Big Deal.”
No, he appointed some dumb liberal judges while he was governer. His history with judicial appointments does not bode well for somebody who is supposed to pick the next SCOTUS seat to become vacant. And social conservatives are all about the judges....
well that wonderful bloc kicked themselves in the foot by not going for Fred. He wasn’t super christian enough for them so now the best they can hope for is a mormon. That’s what happens.
Huckabee will be gone after Florida. Giuliani will soon follow (thank God!). Leaves McCain and Romney. Looks like Romney will be picking up the majority of the support from the dropped out conservatives Tancredo, Hunter and Thompson, but surprisingly, McCain is hanging in there. Question will be, which way will Huckabee’s Evangelicals break?
After all of what you have said is done, I still truly don’t see how the final GOP Presidential candidate succeeds in winning on November 4.
If Thompson wanted our votes he could have at least pretended to like us. He didn’t bother to go to the value voters debate - which is what got Huckabee’s momentum going btw - he came out against the Human Life Amendment, he blew off Dr. Dobson, and he made a big deal about not going to church. So, yeah, he ran away from us as hard as he could and we figured that if he is running from us during the primary there is no way we could trust him to be a strong social conservative while in office.
Slightly more than half on this forum prefers Romney as I write this.”
Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Only 683 members voted for Romney in the Forum oll...
Thats 52% of people who voted, members and non-members...only 1,194 altogether out of 2,264 voted for Romney.....
Look at the details...
:)
I think the media has everthing to do with it. Most people just pay peripheral attention to politics (if at all). The only basis they have for a decision is how the media presents their darlin’s
It's not that hard to figure out. Huckabee IS an evangelical, rabidly is opposed to abortion and the homosexual agenda and has a great record on social issues.
Like or not, Fred came off as not being particularly interested on those issues.
Some people actually believe these values issues are more important than other issues and want someone to champion them rather than give lip service to them.
and Fred’s 100% pro-life record meant nothing. the NRLC endorsement meant nothing. Welcome back, Carter.
That's the $64,000 question. I think a lot may stay home without a genuine social conservative in the race. They'll think he's a phony or dislike his religion. I don't have problems with his religion, just him as a politician. I think I'll vote for Dr. Paul. At least I agree with his domestic proposals.
I need a brokered convention. I made a bet that neither Rudy, Mitt or McCain would get the nomination, and another bet the the GOP would win in November. None of those guys seem to believe in anything except themselves. Drat!
I am hugely disappointed now that Duncan and Fred are out.
I am a Catholic and Romney's religion is small potatoes compared to Huckabee, a Baptist that lies; Guliani, a Catholic who isn't and supports abortion and 'gay rights'; and McCain who is a democrat.
If the choice has to be made, it's Romney.
Maybe the donkeys will have a brokered convention too! Pass the popcorn, please.
This isn’t aimed at you, neverdem, but I’ve been wandering the net tonight reading comments, and I’ve learned something. I thought liberals were the biggest whiners in America, but I was wrong.
Finding a Candidate, that respects the strongest “plank points” of each major Candidate could be hard to do. Letting the delegates pick a VP to fill the weaknesses of the Top Dog, would be a show!
Finding a pair {pres & vp} might be do-able. Forcing a VP on McCain could be tough, he seems to want GORE.
As an Evangelical, let me just say that Huckabee is transparent, and easily identified as a phony and a hypocrite. I won’t be voting for the likes of him. Don’t like any of ‘em now.
That's the way I broke it down. But God help me if I have to vote for a Massachusetts Republican who started a socialist revolution in healthcare.
If I understand it correctly, the delegates are committed for the first vote and then free to vote whomever after that? We are picking a lot of delegates who support Ron Paul even though they are committed to others (Romney here in Nevada). Do I have that right?
They may get it, and it would make things much mor einteresting.
NOBODY is going to “sweep teh board” on February 5. And that’s a good thing.
mcCain will not have 50% of the delegates @ convention.
Actually, Rasmussen has Romney ahead of McQueeg by 5%, and I suspect Romney will pick up most of Thompsons voters that don't stay home and pout.
The GOP needs a “hookered” convention so that we can see if they have any balls to confront the Democrats, or whether they are now political eunuchs.
If tehy do, watch Algore make a move.
I believe so.
We are picking a lot of delegates who support Ron Paul even though they are committed to others (Romney here in Nevada). Do I have that right?
Maybe someone who knows more than me can comment on that.
The power brokers in the party horse trade {ethical and otherwise} for votes and keep voting until a compromise candidate is reached. C.Coolidge & A.Lincoln were selected this way.
‘If you are part of a society that votes, then do so. There may be no candidates and no measures you want to vote for . . but there are certain to be ones you want to vote against. In case of doubt, vote against. By this rule you will rarely go wrong.”
“If this is too blind for your taste, consult some well-meaning fool (there is always one around) and ask his advice. Then vote the other way. This enables you to be a good citizen (if such is your wish) without spending the enormous amount of time on it that truly intelligent exercise of franchise requires.”
-Robert Heinlein
The GOP has been doing this for what, 4 election cycles now? They have developed the 'well, who else are they going to vote for?' syndrome. The fact that there are still many who will hold their noses and vote for the nominee tells me that the GOP is really not wrong in their assessment. I, for one, am done following the party line just so these arrogant idiots can win an election. Let the chips fall.
Thank you for your rant!
The rest of the line up stinks.
I’m praying for a brokered convention.
I’m serious, too.
Clearly the primary process does not work well -- the impetus for moving them ever earlier was so that this or that state would be able to "have a say" in who the eventual nominee would be.
Moreover, the egregious sound-bite charades of the so-called "debates" are utterly inadequate to properly educate the public on the positions and abilities of the various candidates. The media and party leaders are complicit in this, too.
I haven't got a good alternative to offer ... but that's no bar to pointing out the problems with the current system.
It is easy but wrong to invoke "the GOP," as if it were some entity aside from the people who are voting in these caucuses and primary elections.
If you want to bitch about the GOP, that's fine -- but if "the GOP" doesn't give you the results you want, perhaps it's because "the base" is those folks who have voted as they have, rather than the ones with whom you agree.
I understand what you want, but that is just not the way it is done. We will see if someone gets the majorit of delegates first before we go down that road. I would be concerned that our convention is not until September and only have six weeks to fight those very democrats. Up until September we will have the Republicans fighting each other. I just don’t see that being a good thing.
I’m glad to see that someone else is awake at this hour.
The GOP has been a disaster when it comes to winning elections in the past few years, even local ones. What is arising are a new breed of Republican and/or conservative who is willing to fight our enemies. The GOP has not supported these people and that is where the problem lies.
Time to put the old GOP down and to build up the new guys, the fighters.
I’m an independent but I could never vote for any Democrat in the presidential elections. They have betrayed our country for too long.
However, the Republicans have got to get some brains, guts, and united unless they will be relegated to “the ash heap of history.”
“The GOP has been doing this for what, 4 election cycles now? They have developed the ‘well, who else are they going to vote for?’ syndrome. The fact that there are still many who will hold their noses and vote for the nominee tells me that the GOP is really not wrong in their assessment. I, for one, am done following the party line just so these arrogant idiots can win an election. Let the chips fall.”
Why act as if there is some conspiracy here? People are voting for their preferred candidates, just as voters have done since voting began. Like you, I don’t care for most of their choices, but they do have the right to vote for whomever they prefer, just as you and I do. There is no smoke-filled room deciding these votes. Millions of individuals are making their own decisions. I honor that process, we all place our votes, and someone wins. That’s the system, and it’s not broken just because our preferred candidates don’t win.
Thanks. I am pretty sure I’ll be writing in a candidate and if that’s not possible, voting none of the above. No more voting for the lessor of two evils or Republican just to stop the Democrat. I’m a Conservative first, Republican second.
Good post.
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