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2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
InTrade ^ | Monday, January 28, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 01/28/2008 7:00:07 AM PST by Momaw Nadon



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008election; election; electionpresident; elections; electoral; electoralvotes; intrade; presidential; projected; votes
Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 234 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 304 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 236.58 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 01/28/2008 7:00:09 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
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Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

2 posted on 01/28/2008 7:00:28 AM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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3 posted on 01/28/2008 7:00:51 AM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Aeronaut; angkor; annyokie; beckysueb; BlessedByLiberty; bluefish; Bogeygolfer; Brandon; ...


If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.


4 posted on 01/28/2008 7:01:29 AM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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Colorado is at 50.0% today.

The bid price is 35.0 and the ask price is 55.0. These average to 45.0.

Thus, the tie goes to the Democratic Presidential candidate.

5 posted on 01/28/2008 7:02:00 AM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon

Arkansas is a doubtful red. It has changed in the last decade.

A Dem governor followed Huckabee. And it has 2 Dem Senators. All but one of the Representatives are in the D column.


6 posted on 01/28/2008 7:08:46 AM PST by TomGuy
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To: TomGuy

With Romney as the Republican nominee, many of the Southern States could be in play.


7 posted on 01/28/2008 7:12:29 AM PST by colorcountry (To anger a conservative, lie to him. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

what was their prediction for 2000, 2004 elections ?


8 posted on 01/28/2008 7:12:34 AM PST by Y2000
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To: Momaw Nadon

Missouri, Colorado and Ohio become the keys, along with Florida (must hold).


9 posted on 01/28/2008 7:13:22 AM PST by steve8714 (Don't sacrifice the important for the urgent.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Need to start working on Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, and Ohio big time.


10 posted on 01/28/2008 7:14:02 AM PST by longhorn too
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To: Y2000
what was their prediction for 2000, 2004 elections?

2004 Electoral Vote Projection History Links

11 posted on 01/28/2008 7:15:38 AM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon
Well then, we had better elect a good candidate and work hard to get him elected or “she” might get elected!!!! Of course, I’m not so sure “she” will be the one running.
12 posted on 01/28/2008 7:16:00 AM PST by mtnwmn (mtnwmn)
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To: Momaw Nadon
DC has a 3.7% chance of a Republican winning? Not even if Hillary were to eat a baby on stage.

Ohio is the really ugly one. Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio look like the changes from 2004 and of those Ohio is the worst at 27.5% chance for victory.

Thanks for all your years of incompetent public service ex-Governor Taft. You may have killed the party in Ohio.

13 posted on 01/28/2008 7:16:38 AM PST by KarlInOhio (Rattenschadenfreude: joy at a Democrat's pain, especially Hillary's pain caused by Obama.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Intrade is useless as a predictive tool. It is moves in response to published polls, with the exception of the last few hours before a local election.

For instance, Romney and McCain (in Florida) have fluctuated over the last 3 days between 40 and 60. They move every time a poll is released, they’ll probably settle in around 50 / 50 until tommorrow.

IF their is some notable event that makes news, but us too late to show up in the polls - it could move intrade in the final moments, but it’s completely useless as an indicator of November elections.


14 posted on 01/28/2008 7:16:58 AM PST by crescen7 (game on)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Very interesting. Thanks for posting.


15 posted on 01/28/2008 7:17:45 AM PST by PGalt
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To: Momaw Nadon
Someone really thinks there is a 3.7% chance a Republican will win the District of Columbia??!!

Do they also think there is a 4.)% chance of snow in Hell?

16 posted on 01/28/2008 7:20:36 AM PST by chs68
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To: steve8714

“Missouri, Colorado and Ohio become the keys, along with Florida (must hold).”

Forget Ohio. Our previous Rep. govenor did so much damage, it would be hard to imagine Ohioans, especially those in northern Ohio, voting Republican in the presidential election.


17 posted on 01/28/2008 7:25:36 AM PST by brownsfan (America has "jumped the shark")
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To: Momaw Nadon

Does anyone find it ironic that Iowa (40% probability of voting Republican), New Hampshire (27.5% probability of voting Republican), Michigan (19% probability of voting Republican), and South Carolina (90% probability of voting Republican) have such dominant sway over who the Republican candidate for president is going to be this year? Add to that the fact that all of these events so far have been “open” to independents and Democrats to create havoc and confusion.

What has happened to our nominating process????? Why the h*ll should we care who the people of Iowa or NH or Michigan prefer (especially all the independents and Demos) among the GOP field? No wonder the Huckster and McNasty have done so well and have gained so much influence and momentum.

Something needs to be done about this mess.


18 posted on 01/28/2008 7:34:28 AM PST by ReleaseTheHounds ("You ask, 'What is our aim?' I can answer in one word: VICTORY - victory - at all costs...")
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To: Momaw Nadon

These numbers are wild guesses until we have a nominee.


19 posted on 01/28/2008 7:39:44 AM PST by freespirited (Still a proud member of the Stupid Party. It beats the Evil Party any day of the week.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Just last month the Intrade market predicted Obama in South Carolina with a 20% chance of winning. Obama won with 55% of the vote. Intrade seems like an unreliable predictor. Maybe some politicians and their allies look at this as another media battle ground. Buy a victory prediction and hope for a self fulfilling prophesy.

20 posted on 01/28/2008 8:10:06 AM PST by ricks_place
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To: colorcountry

If Mccain is the nominee, every red state is in play. He would likely be stronger in OH among independents than, perhaps, Bush . . . but I still think he would lose due to increased Dem turnout and depressed conservative turnout.


21 posted on 01/28/2008 8:10:14 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
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To: steve8714
We're in bad shape here in OH. The economy is still bad, and Dem Gov. Strickand has been very clever in not doing anything to make it worse. In fact, he has completely stayed out of trouble---bad for us.

Right now, I don't see any Republican winning OH.

22 posted on 01/28/2008 8:11:22 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
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To: ReleaseTheHounds
It's useless to blame the "system." Look what happens when you try to move things around---people still vote in "meaningless" primaries which still get coverage. When the Dems tried to undercut the power of the masses and make sure they protected the interest groups with "superdelegates," it has turned out to be largely ineffective.

I think if our first four primaries were AZ, WI, TX, and say, WA, you'd still have pretty much the same candidates, if a different order of victories.

23 posted on 01/28/2008 8:14:07 AM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Seems pretty accurate to me. Only about five states could be said to be in play.


24 posted on 01/28/2008 8:16:20 AM PST by RichardW
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To: Momaw Nadon

Thanks for the link.


25 posted on 01/28/2008 8:31:04 AM PST by Y2000
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To: crescen7

Polls aren’t as accurate as prediction markets.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts

The funny thing I see, over and over and over is that some freeper points out that “on some particular incident X, the Prediction Markets got it wrong” as if that somehow negates the overall effectiveness of Prediction Markets versus Poll Results.

But in this election cycle, the process was taken one step further. Poll results are generated by the MSM, and the MSM demonstrates a huge liberal bias and they obviously tilted the polls to show anticonservative results. Those polls were used to exclude the most conservative candidate from the debates in the EARLIEST PRIMARIES. So, we had biased media conducting biased polls and using that biased data to exclude the candidate they didn’t like, even though he had won a delegate and some of those jerks who had higher poll results hadn’t a single delegate to their name.

On Poll Results and the End of Conservatism
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1951282/posts


26 posted on 01/28/2008 10:56:14 AM PST by Kevmo (We need to get rid of the Kennedy Wing of the Republican Party. ~Duncan Hunter)
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To: ReleaseTheHounds

Bump that. Several times I’ve suggested that there should be a rotating primary schedule so that each state gets a chance to affect the cycle early in the process at some point.


27 posted on 01/28/2008 10:58:22 AM PST by Kevmo (We need to get rid of the Kennedy Wing of the Republican Party. ~Duncan Hunter)
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To: ricks_place

This post should have been directed to you as well.


28 posted on 01/28/2008 11:00:23 AM PST by Kevmo (We need to get rid of the Kennedy Wing of the Republican Party. ~Duncan Hunter)
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To: Momaw Nadon

They always bet on the dems and it is always very close but leaning Republican in the end.


29 posted on 01/28/2008 2:15:30 PM PST by beckysueb (Pray for our troops , America, and President Bush)
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To: freespirited

Yep and with the choice being either a woman or a guy named Hussein in the opposition, I think the Republicans have a better than average chance this time.


30 posted on 01/28/2008 2:18:40 PM PST by beckysueb (Pray for our troops , America, and President Bush)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Having Huckabee on the ticket would greatly improve the chances of turning these now blue states, red:

Iowa (7), Missouri (11), Ohio (20), Penn (21)

Rep = 293
Dems = 245


31 posted on 01/28/2008 2:29:05 PM PST by FreedomProtector
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To: Momaw Nadon

Romney would make solidly red Southern states potentially blue and pink ones blue.


32 posted on 01/28/2008 2:31:29 PM PST by FreedomProtector
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To: FreedomProtector

What battleground states do you think Huckabee would be weak in?


33 posted on 01/28/2008 4:34:19 PM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: LS

But we are not giving up here in Ohio!!!! We are going to campaign - you all just have to give us a strong candidate who can beat the Dem - Hey Florida - Get out there and vote for Romney.


34 posted on 01/28/2008 4:34:26 PM PST by Martins kid
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To: FreedomProtector
Romney would make solidly red Southern states potentially blue and pink ones blue.

That may happen, although, of the remaining GOP contenders, Romney will have the most money left over for the General Election .

On the other hand, I believe McCain would put states into play that the Dems would not normally worry about.

I wish we had a more conservative GOP nominee still in the race, but alas, Duncan Hunter and Fred Thompson have dropped out.

IMHO, at this point, the main question is which RINO has a better chance of defeating the Hildabeast or Osamabama.

35 posted on 01/28/2008 4:48:58 PM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Martins kid

Oh, I’ll work for Mitt here. He can’t do any worse than Ken Blackwell, who was as good a candidate as I ever saw.


36 posted on 01/28/2008 5:58:42 PM PST by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of News)
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