Skip to comments.2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
Posted on 01/28/2008 7:00:07 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 234 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 304 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 236.58 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
The bid price is 35.0 and the ask price is 55.0. These average to 45.0.
Thus, the tie goes to the Democratic Presidential candidate.
Arkansas is a doubtful red. It has changed in the last decade.
A Dem governor followed Huckabee. And it has 2 Dem Senators. All but one of the Representatives are in the D column.
With Romney as the Republican nominee, many of the Southern States could be in play.
what was their prediction for 2000, 2004 elections ?
Missouri, Colorado and Ohio become the keys, along with Florida (must hold).
Need to start working on Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, and Ohio big time.
Ohio is the really ugly one. Colorado, Missouri, Iowa, New Mexico and Ohio look like the changes from 2004 and of those Ohio is the worst at 27.5% chance for victory.
Thanks for all your years of incompetent public service ex-Governor Taft. You may have killed the party in Ohio.
Intrade is useless as a predictive tool. It is moves in response to published polls, with the exception of the last few hours before a local election.
For instance, Romney and McCain (in Florida) have fluctuated over the last 3 days between 40 and 60. They move every time a poll is released, they’ll probably settle in around 50 / 50 until tommorrow.
IF their is some notable event that makes news, but us too late to show up in the polls - it could move intrade in the final moments, but it’s completely useless as an indicator of November elections.
Very interesting. Thanks for posting.
Do they also think there is a 4.)% chance of snow in Hell?
“Missouri, Colorado and Ohio become the keys, along with Florida (must hold).”
Forget Ohio. Our previous Rep. govenor did so much damage, it would be hard to imagine Ohioans, especially those in northern Ohio, voting Republican in the presidential election.
Does anyone find it ironic that Iowa (40% probability of voting Republican), New Hampshire (27.5% probability of voting Republican), Michigan (19% probability of voting Republican), and South Carolina (90% probability of voting Republican) have such dominant sway over who the Republican candidate for president is going to be this year? Add to that the fact that all of these events so far have been “open” to independents and Democrats to create havoc and confusion.
What has happened to our nominating process????? Why the h*ll should we care who the people of Iowa or NH or Michigan prefer (especially all the independents and Demos) among the GOP field? No wonder the Huckster and McNasty have done so well and have gained so much influence and momentum.
Something needs to be done about this mess.
These numbers are wild guesses until we have a nominee.
If Mccain is the nominee, every red state is in play. He would likely be stronger in OH among independents than, perhaps, Bush . . . but I still think he would lose due to increased Dem turnout and depressed conservative turnout.
Right now, I don't see any Republican winning OH.
I think if our first four primaries were AZ, WI, TX, and say, WA, you'd still have pretty much the same candidates, if a different order of victories.
Seems pretty accurate to me. Only about five states could be said to be in play.
Thanks for the link.
Polls arent as accurate as prediction markets.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
The funny thing I see, over and over and over is that some freeper points out that on some particular incident X, the Prediction Markets got it wrong as if that somehow negates the overall effectiveness of Prediction Markets versus Poll Results.
But in this election cycle, the process was taken one step further. Poll results are generated by the MSM, and the MSM demonstrates a huge liberal bias and they obviously tilted the polls to show anticonservative results. Those polls were used to exclude the most conservative candidate from the debates in the EARLIEST PRIMARIES. So, we had biased media conducting biased polls and using that biased data to exclude the candidate they didnt like, even though he had won a delegate and some of those jerks who had higher poll results hadnt a single delegate to their name.
On Poll Results and the End of Conservatism
Bump that. Several times I’ve suggested that there should be a rotating primary schedule so that each state gets a chance to affect the cycle early in the process at some point.
This post should have been directed to you as well.
They always bet on the dems and it is always very close but leaning Republican in the end.
Yep and with the choice being either a woman or a guy named Hussein in the opposition, I think the Republicans have a better than average chance this time.
Having Huckabee on the ticket would greatly improve the chances of turning these now blue states, red:
Iowa (7), Missouri (11), Ohio (20), Penn (21)
Rep = 293
Dems = 245
Romney would make solidly red Southern states potentially blue and pink ones blue.
What battleground states do you think Huckabee would be weak in?
But we are not giving up here in Ohio!!!! We are going to campaign - you all just have to give us a strong candidate who can beat the Dem - Hey Florida - Get out there and vote for Romney.
That may happen, although, of the remaining GOP contenders, Romney will have the most money left over for the General Election .
On the other hand, I believe McCain would put states into play that the Dems would not normally worry about.
I wish we had a more conservative GOP nominee still in the race, but alas, Duncan Hunter and Fred Thompson have dropped out.
IMHO, at this point, the main question is which RINO has a better chance of defeating the Hildabeast or Osamabama.
Oh, I’ll work for Mitt here. He can’t do any worse than Ken Blackwell, who was as good a candidate as I ever saw.