Posted on 01/29/2008 11:00:31 AM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - Florida's presidential primary is the first test of how Republicans John McCain and Mitt Romney might fare in a large and hugely diverse battleground state.
The outcome sets the stage for the Feb. 5 Super Tuesday primaries, a nationwide contest just one week away in which more than 20 states hold elections. The Republican race so far has been a muddle, with McCain winning New Hampshire and South Carolina, Romney winning his home state of Michigan and Mike Huckabee winning Iowa.
Florida will do one of two things — thrust McCain into position as the front-runner, or allow Romney to keep running a two-man race. And Florida likely will bury the presidential aspirations of Rudy Giuliani, once the leader of the GOP field, and deal another blow to Huckabee.
"A win in Florida for McCain certainly gives him a leg up, because as you look to next week, he already has a lead in a number of major states, and so that will only help increase his trajectory," said Republican consultant Tony Fabrizio.
"If Romney wins, assuming it's not a blowout, what it does is force McCain to fight foxhole to foxhole, state to state, and draws him into a more extended war of attrition with Romney, which McCain does not necessarily have the money for," Fabrizio said.
McCain, the Arizona senator whose campaign has slowly climbed back after plummeting last summer, managed to stay in the game in large part because he is well-known to Republican voters. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, on the other hand, is known among Republicans because he has spent millions of dollars on television commercials.
A Romney victory would resurrect the old criticism that McCain, long mistrusted by many in the GOP conservative base, can't win a Republican-only primary like Florida's. Independents gave McCain an edge in the open primaries of New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Florida likely will end the aspirations of Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor who dominated Republican polls throughout 2007 but saw his lead evaporate once the voting began last month.
Giuliani initially tried to compete in early states — he spent more than $3 million on TV ads in New Hampshire and ran radio ads and sent mail to voters there and in Iowa — then decamped to Florida last month, where he waited out the early contests and tried, unsuccessfully, to hold onto his lead.
Florida is also a blow to Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor who won the Iowa caucuses. The underfunded Huckabee has been unable to break out beyond his base of born-again Christian voters and finished second behind McCain in South Carolina and third in New Hampshire and Michigan.
While Florida is the fourth-largest state and its Republican electorate is highly diverse — young, old, whites, Hispanics, moderates, conservatives — a primary victory does not ensure a general election win. Primary turnout is a small fraction of turnout in the general election.
What it insures is momentum, and for now, momentum is the name of the game.
The winner of the Republican primary walks away with all 57 of Florida's delegates to the Republican National Convention. It's a small number, considering it takes 1,191 to win the nomination, but it is the biggest number of delegates awarded so far.
Everyone needs to get this straight right now.
Explain this to every Republican you know.
McCain hates the GOP.
Once he gets the nomination, he will be cut loose. He won’t have to tow the party line on anything, and he won’t.
He will run his campaign AGAINST the GOP.
This is why he is a “maverick.”
Mitt Romney is at least a team player.
He wants to be liked by conservative Republicans.
He will do everything he can to please the GOP base.
McCain will do everything he can to screw them.
McCain will talk about Republicans the way Bill Clinton did.
No, these aren’t “Christians”.
These are HUMANISTS that favor SOCIALSIM.
Mike just whips out Scripture now and then, out of context to string them along.
Votting for Mitt, the “Mormon”.
Team Player means he has no convictions and will do what he’s told. A model Republican. Where’s a 3rd party when you need one.
McCain is a team player too.
He’s just playing for the other team.
Florida Recount II, here we come!
I cast my vote for the Stormin’ Mormon, Mitt Romney!
A “third party” in the form of H Ross Perot, is what gave us the Bill Clinton presidency... sad but true.
Was for Fred - ready to go with Mitt. I can support him over McCain any day.
We can’t let the Democrats sail into office just because our apathy said “stay home”. You may not like everything about the nominated candidate, but you have to admit, the alternative is SO MUCH WORSE! I think our very loud, collective voices will sway a President who wants our approval and wants to be a team player (Mitt Romney). John McCain will sell the GOP out to the highest bidder.
Your probably right. :)
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