Posted on 01/30/2008 4:03:15 PM PST by Checkers
CNN puts McCain with 97 delegates and Romney at 74.
Let's look at the worst case for Romney on Super Tuesday.
Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18) for a total of 312 delegates. (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.)
Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 51 delegates.
Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain's got 409 delegates and Romney's got 126.
Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.
States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:
California 173
Georgia 72
Illinois 70
Tennessee 55
Alabama 48
Colorado 46
Massachusetts 41
Minnesota 40
Oklahoma 41
West Virginia 30
Alaska 29
North Dakota 26
Total 671
If these divide 40-40-20, McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133. But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain, 201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck.
Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:
McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.
It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday.
Start looking hard at the numbers and put yourself in the discussions with Team Romney. It isn't pretty, but it is far, far from over.
And if the Huckabee voters look at the reality and see they are voting for McCain when they vote for Huck, anything can happen.
(Excerpt) Read more at hughhewitt.townhall.com ...
ping
“And if the Huckabee voters look at the reality and see they are voting for McCain when they vote for Huck, anything can happen.”
This point must be made every chance Romney gets...
Hugh perverted himself early on like a pimp for a drug induced pig. His influence is measurably laughable. He ain’t a conservative by any sense of the measure.
Admitteldy, with Rudy's endorsement and with Huckabee's actions basically spoiling for McCain, it is going to be a very, very difficult road to hoe. Almost insurmountable it seems, but still worth the effort IMHO, even if Romney is my 3rd choice. Still a better choice, IMHO, than McCain.
The Huck voters are largely politically tone deaf, they will not see their vote as helping McCain.
Here is my problem with Hugh’s otherwise “fair enough” reasoning:
Historically, the perceived “winner” of most early delegates (and McCain has a plurality, if not “most”) IMPROVES HIS STANDING in the remaining states. For some reason, people want to vote for a winner ... which is silly, perhaps ...
Point is, if history is a guide, McCain is likely to improve his “numbers,” absent some new, hard-hitting attacks on him by opponents or the media — or a gaffe/ scandal not previously known.
I wish it were otherwise, Hugh, but ...
The Huckabee voters wouldn't know reality if it hit them in the face.
I only did this math weeks ago, but thanks for catching up Hugh.
If prayer works, someone can try that. I'm not a prayer.
Well that's a bit strong. Hewitt is truly a conservative.
OTOH you are correct, I believe, about his influence. Hewitt tends to be overly optimistic about the chances of the candidates (and the party) he supports and this leads me to discount anything he says including this article.
I used to listen to Hewitt and Medved in the afternoons out here on the Left Coast. No longer. Medved is pimp for McPain, Hewitt is not to be believed and they both run so many commercials and breaks for the weather and traffic that there just isn't any continuity to their shows any longer.
For me it is Rush and FR.
I wonder how fresh these polls are. Super Tuesday ought to be a chaotic day. If Romney has any money left in his coffers, he’d better start spending it now. He also had better hit a grand friggin’ slam tonight if he wants to stop the McCain juggernaut.
Hugh went hard for Mitt early on knowing the strategy of the Republican establishment was for McCain. Mitt was hardly a conservative and the split with the social conservatives lent an opening for McCain to walk through. Conservatives were already apprehensive about Mitt.
Thanks for the numbers. I was just going to look for them. This race is far from over.
The truth about Mr. Amnesty needs to get out to the voters that vote but haven’t paid attention the past year to what McCain has done!
It’s over.
I was wondering whether Romney should step it up a notch and fork out the big bucks to air an ad during the Superbowl.
Given his adament refusal to speak ill of McCain, I’m convinced Huck fancies himself a potential VP...I’m also convince McCain will crush his dreams like the quarterback ditches the ugly girl with a crush.
That’d be a bold move, though I think it would backfire. Americans like to compartmentalize, and most don’t like mixing sports and politics.
“Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.”
Hewitt’s first wrong answer. Conservatives in Arkansas see The Huckster for what he really is: Bubba Lite. He couldn’t get elected dog catcher down here.
Outside of St Louis, mcCain has little to no support in the rest of Missouri.
Divide the rest between huck and rom.
It’s the Twilight zone!
“Start looking hard at the numbers and put yourself in the discussions with Team Romney.”
Go for brokered!
Ron Paul is not yet mathematically eliminated.
Sincerely,
A Cubs fan.
I can’t tell you all how depressing this is. I vote republican because they are te most conservative party, but this is a kick right in the balls if McCain is going to be the nominee.
We need a conservative party.
Nonsense. He might want to but there’s no political adviser in the world is going to stand by and watch him run a “Grumpy Old Men” ticket - especially against Obama.
There is NO CHANCE Thompson will be on McCain’s ticket. Though I do think he’ll be offered a prominent cabinet post.
McCain’s VP will be a guy purposely chose to offset the angry old guy image he projects.
I hear you. I was going to drop out of the Republican Party today, but I decided to stay in at least until McCain really is a done deal.
Do people realize we have probably an indefinite future of the open border and a Latin American cultural future staring us in the face, based on the decisions we make in the next few days?
We must fight! Romney is the only one standing in the way of a disaster we can hardly yet imagine.
They can be as calculating as they want to be. As myopic as they want to be. They had no problem spouting that a vote for Thompson in South Carolina was a vote for McCain. In fact, that was the biggest message Huckabee put out in the final week (at least officially). So, in the end, it's ok to do whatever as long as "God's guy" gets in.
Thanks.
So you assume there are no young conservatives? And he has no friends among them?
Heck, if he names J.C. Watts I’LL vote for him.
Thompson WON’T be on the ticket and it constantly surprises me that in such a usually politically savvy place as FR so many continue to assume he will.
The bizarre scenarios facing the voters of both parties are perhaps a reflection of our shattered culture.
On the Democrat side (largely unnoticed by the ordinary Republican voters), the voters are splitting between Clinton loyalists and anti-Clinton voters. Obama just happens to be the leading alternative to the Clinton machine. Although I don't care much for Obama's message (whatever it is), the willingness of large blocs of Democrat voters to revolt against a Clinton dynasty is encouraging news for the nation. At this point, Obama is a suspected bad character; the Clintons are known poison.
On the Republican side, most of us who have supported Hunter, then Thompson, and now Romney, see McCain for his notable willingness to betray his party and his legal constituents on the most critical issues, and therefore as an entity to be defeated, preferably in the primary.
Maybe the "good of the nation" has no viable candidates this cycle. Maybe the best that can come of this election is the cleansing of both these corrupt parties, maybe even the prospect of new parties with acceptable candidates.
I will vote for Romney, if he's still an option in May. Romney would probably manage the business of the country satisfactorily, if he wins. If the choices in the general election are Romney vs. Obama, I see sufficient reason to go vote for Romney, even if just for his better economic and business perspective.
Concerning Huckabee, I'm not sure which one to believe -- the Huckabee from last July, or the one from August, or the one from September, or the one from last week. This guy is just unbelievably flexible on who he really is.
If the choice is McCain vs. Obama, my choice will be "NOT McCain". I won't vote for Obama, but I also won't vote for McCain. I just don't see that Obama could possibly betray the citizens of the U.S. any worse than McCain already has. And I don't discount the possibility that Obama is a "sleeper" agent for a violent Muslim takeover plot. If so, they'll slaughter the self-anointed elites first. Too bad.
If the choice is McCain vs. Hillary, I see no reason to vote for either. Neither will be good for the country, and both have amply demonstrated their antipathy for U.S. citizens. There is no "lesser" of these two evils, IMHO. That the voters would have to choose between them is a fraud itself.
I wish people would wake up and realize McLame is pro-Amnesty, anti-First Amendment, and voted against the tax cuts that saved our economy.
And by the way, McLame still thinks he is right on those issues. Romney admits he was wrong on a social issue like abortion, and can't be forgiven by some on this board.
McLame REFUSES to admit he was wrong on the above issues, and there is no reason to think he'll reverse them if he ever gets into the Oval Office. IN fact, he'll probably strengthen those anti-conservative initiatives.
Romney can take the fight all the way to the convention if he can prevent McCain from getting the needed 50%.
McCain can never admit he’s wrong about anything, as illustrated last night in the debate, he’s still insisting Romney advocated for a “Timetable for withdrawal”, and I haven’t seen a single person, pundit, talk show host , reporter, etc, that has agreed with his interpretation of what Romney said, but it doesn’t matter to McCain.
I think he is going to ask his Lindsey so he can “think” he will get the southern vote. Lindsey was so ridiculous during the South Carolina primary. It was almost like he was as excited as a young bride on her wedding night...kinda sick.
And then there is the unsettling question about his ties/support/affinity to radical Islam...and not just his father and step-father, but more importantly his 2006 support of candidates in Kenya and his admitted mentor's (his preacher's) affinity towards Louis Farrakhan. In such a time, when we are at war with radical Islam who regularly states their desire and intent to destroy us...fair or not...IMHO we simply cannot risk such ties in any elected official, particularly not the POTUS.
Sadly, I think the Huckadoodles are too anti Morman to see the big picture of allowing John McCain in.
Here in Pennsylvania, we have Arlen Specter who runs as a conservative moderate every 6 years for re-election and then turns hard left once in office.
McCain, if elected, would absolutely turn left without shame.....especially if he only wants 1 term.
He really deserves a smackdown, perhaps he'll get one when I vote for President Hillary.
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