From the Housing Market to the Maternity Ward

New York Times ^ | February 1, 2008 | John Leland

[reaganaut1]

What is the relationship between fertility and real estate?

...

Is real estate destiny?

“It’s something a bunch of us have been thinking about,” said Morris A. Davis, an assistant professor of real estate and urban land economics []. “If you reduce down-payment constraints, more people can buy homes, or buy bigger homes. Does that encourage them to have more kids? I would say nobody knows.”

Social scientists have long traced a connection between housing and fertility. When homes are scarce or beyond the means of young couples, as in the 1930s, couples delay marriage or have fewer children. This tendency helps account for the relatively dismal birth rates of many developed nations, said Robert Engelman, vice president for programs at the Worldwatch Institute, an environmental research organization, and author of the forthcoming “More: Population, Nature, and What Women Want.”

“One reason there are so few children in Italy is that housing is so hard to come by,” Mr. Engelman said. “Houses are bigger in the U.S. and generally more available. That may help explain why Americans have more babies.”

...

“Those ARM-financed McMansions are in the middle of nowhere, where land is cheap,” he said, using the acronym for adjustable-rate mortgage. “That increases the time it takes to get to work, meaning it raises the cost for women to go to work. That should increase fertility.”

...

General birth rates were highest in Republican strongholds like Utah (94.1 births per 1,000 women), Arizona (81.6), Idaho (80.9) and Texas (78.8). They were lowest in states won by John Kerry in 2004, including Vermont (52.2), New Hampshire (53.4), Maine (54.5), Rhode Island (54.6) and Massachusetts (57). The rate in New York was 61.1, well below the national average of 68.5. The rate in New Jersey was 64.4; in Connecticut, 58.8.

[reaganaut1]

The Republican base is normal families -- a husband and wife raising their children -- and it's not surprising that states where a normal way of life is more affordable tend to be more Republican. When politicians talk about "open space" and "suburban sprawl", middle-class families get priced out of the housing market.

Steve Sailer has written about "Affordable Family Formation" as a key to the GOP future.

[Hoodlum91]

Uh oh....my husband and I are meeting with a realtor tonight.

[2banana]

“Houses are bigger in the U.S. and generally more available. That may help explain why Americans have more babies.”

Has this person ever been to the third world? Families with 6 kids living in one room huts...

[RockinRight]

The stat is accurate for developed nations...in the third world they don’t have birth control...

[sportutegrl]

We moved into a brand new development 7 years ago. Babies immediately started popping up all over the place. At one time all three of us in the cul-de-sac were pregnant at the same time. Now we have 6 year olds and some new babies playing together.

I also notice a new phenomenon: whenever a couple moves into our development, they have babies soon after. A single guy moved in and soon got married and is now expecting. The school bus fills up with one stop.

BTW, at the time we bought our first home, I was working with no intention of quitting my job and having a baby. Something about a home of your own, I guess.

[waverna]

More rooms to do it in and no neighbors in ajoining apartments!

[stefanbatory]

A single guy moved in and soon got married and is now expecting.

Speaking as a single guy, I think I’ll stay away from your development...I’d rather my future wife be the one who is expecting...;)