LIVE THREAD Super Tuesday 2008

5 February 2008

[SE Mom]

Here we go...

The Democrat nominee needs 2,025 to win.

The Republican nominee needs 1,191 to win.

[SE Mom]

Fasten your seatbelts!

[SE Mom]

Ping for lists!

[petercooper]

Defeat McCain.

[rightwingintelligentsia]

Here's hoping we won't need these come November.

[SE Mom]

Useful links:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18970417/

http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/

[Brett66]

Just voted for Mitt in Oklahoma.

[conservativeinferno]

MITT, MITT, MITT!!!

[mykdsmom]

It really ticks me off that here in NC our primary isn't until May 6th. By then it will be over and my vote against McCain will be useless.

I think the powers that be, need to come up with a rotating primary schedule so that the states that have late primary dates have a chance to cast their votes too. It's not fair IMO.

I hope all of you that get to vote and have your votes actually mean something appreciate that chance, because millions of us don't get that opportunity.

[Brett66]

Fred Thompson was still on the ballot here in Okla. sorely tempted to vote for him, but McCain must be stopped.

[SE Mom]

:) Were there lines? What does turnout look like in Oklahoma for today?

[Tijeras_Slim]

Dim caucus in NM only. Republican primary in June (fat lot of good that will do)

I get the feeling that this year will be one long political colonoscopy.

[redtetrahedron]

(Got this in email from NumbersUSA)

IF YOU WANT TO VOTE TO KEEP McCAIN FROM GETTING DELEGATES IN YOUR STATE ...

It would seem to be a significant victory if McCain can be stopped from getting any more than 700 of the more than 1,000 delegates at stake today. That (combined with the nearly 100 he already has) would leave him at least 400 short of the 1,191 needed to secure the GOP nomination.

A major victory would be to keep him below 600. That would give anti-amnesty forces some time in the remaining Primary states to better educate Republican voters about Sen. McCain’s stated commitment to giving amnesty to at least 10 million illegal aliens and to dramatically increasing the importation of foreign workers to compete with American workers.

Keeping McCain’s wins under 600 — or even under 700 — is going to be tough because polls show McCain with overwhelming leads in winner-take-all states of New York (101 delegates), New Jersey (52) and Connecticut (30).

This next section is highly controversial because every Republican and Democratic candidate has support among a segment of you getting this email. Please understand that I am making no endorsements here.

But what I am doing is showing you what you would do if your top priority today is to keep pro-amnesty McCain from getting delegates.

Paul, Huckabee and Romney have all made explicit promises to oppose legalization (amnesty) of illegal aliens and to use an Attrition Through Enforcement policy that drives illegal aliens back to their home countries.

(Nearly all of the surveys listed below were taken over the weekend.)

If you are willing to switch your vote from your favorite candidate to a candidate best able to defeat McCain today, you might:

VOTE FOR RON PAUL in ....

* ALASKA: The Wall Street Journal suggests Paul might be poised to win this state.

VOTE FOR MITT ROMNEY in ...

* ARIZONA: Deep resentments among Republicans about their long-time home-state Senator McCain has left him with a bit of vulnerability and perhaps the opportunity for a Super Bowl type upset. The latest Rasmussen polls show McCain at 43%, followed by Romney at 34% (and Huckabee at 9% and Paul at 7%). A truly serious get-out-the-vote drive provides the slightest possibility of the embarrassing upset for McCain.

* CALIFORNIA: The latest SurveyUSA shows McCain at 39% and Romney at 36%. But Rasmussen’s poll of the last two days shows Romney ahead with 40% over McCain’s 32% (and 12% for Huckabee and 5% for Paul). A McCain loss in California would give a lot of people hope in the remaining Primary states. Anti-amnesty votes should coalesce around Romney for a big news media victory and lots of delegates.

* COLORADO: Romney should take this from McCain if the anti-amnesty voters stick with him.

* GEORGIA: According to the latest Insider Advantage poll, McCain at 32% is in a dead heat with Romney at 31% (followed by Huckabee at 26% and Paul at 3%). Georgia is one of the three most aggressive states in trying to drive illegal aliens away. Unless some of Huckabee’s and Paul’s supporters switch to Romney, the state may send pro-amnesty McCain delegates to the convention.

* ILLINOIS: The latest SurveyUSA shows McCain at 38% and Romney at 23% (with Huckabee at 25% and Paul at 7%). This is a real long-shot that will require incredible turnout by anti-amnesty voters.

* MASSACHUSETTS: Make sure Romney takes the delegates of his home state.

* MONTANA: The winner takes all 25 delegates.

* NORTH DAKOTA: Romney should be the frontrunner for the anti-amnesty vote here.

* UTAH: Romney appears poised to take all these delegates.

VOTE FOR MIKE HUCKABEE in ...

* ALABAMA: Latest SurveyUSA poll shows McCain at 37% and Huckabee at 35% (with Romney at 19% and Paul at 6%). Romney and Paul voters could easily push Huckabee vote total to defeat McCain. Huckabee over the weekend signed the long and detailed immigration pledge of Sen. Sessions, Alabama’s wildly popular champion opponent of illegal immigration. Alabamans despise amnesty. How could this state go for McCain? The only way is for the anti-amnesty vote to be divided.

* ARKANSAS: Huckabee should win in his home state. Make sure McCain doesn’t pull an upset.

* MISSOURI: This is a winner-take-all state. According to the latest SurveyUSA, McCain at 33% will take all of Missouri’s 58 delegates unless anti-amnesty forces coalesce behind one candidate. Although Romney is close at 28% (and Paul at 4%), the best chance for defeating McCain appears to be switching votes to Huckabee who at 31% is virtually tied with McCain.

* OKLAHOMA: Latest SurveyUSA shows McCain at 37% and Huckabee at 32% (with Romney at 23% and Paul at 3%). That is striking distance in a state that is one of the most anti-illegal-immigration in the nation. Why would Oklahomans give their delegates to Amnesty King McCain? Because the anti-amnesty vote is split.

* TENNESSEE: Latest Insider Advantage poll shows McCain with 32% just barely ahead of Huckabee at 30% (with Romney at 22% and Paul at 6%). This is another strongly anti-amnesty state that should easily help Huckabee take these delegates away from McCain.

[tndarlin]

Fred Thompson was still on the ballot here in Okla. sorely tempted to vote for him, but McCain must be stopped.

Same in TN, but I voted for Romney.

[Mama25]

Here in Missouri, too. I actually hesitated for a moment. Damn near teared up, as I really wanted Fred.

I voted for Mitt. McCain MUST be stopped.

[Brett66]

There were more democrats in line than Republicans, looks like a lot of interest on the dem side.

[GOPRaleigh]

amen - I’m frustrated by this as well!

[conservativeinferno]

Thanks! Politico.com also has great county-by-county maps for every state updated in real time.

[Mama25]

Well, damn. I wish I’d seen this yesterday. I was at the polls by 7 AM so I could vote before work and before the weather hits later today. The weather could play havoc with the Missouri results.

[deport]

The Scoreboard via The Green Papers

Current standings and delegates to be won......

---

 

		Republican Pledged and Unpledged Delegate Summary Alphabetically by State   2,516 total delegates - 560 base at-large / 1,305 re: 435 congressional districts / 168 party / 483 bonus Pledged/Unpledged delegates: 1,804 pledged, 576 unpledged. Need to nominate: 1,191.
Rank	(sort) State	(available) (2,159)		McCain, J (102)		Romney, M (69)		Huckabee, M (27)		Hunter, D (1)		Paul, R (11)		Thompson, F (11)		Allocation
		(sort) Pl (1,681)	(sort) Unpl (478)	(sort) Pl (89)	(sort) Unpl (13)	(sort) Pl (24)	(sort) Unpl (45)	(sort) Pl (10)	(sort) Unpl (17)	Pl (0)	(sort) Unpl (1)	Pl (0)	(sort) Unpl (11)	Pl (0)	(sort) Unpl (11)	(sort) Pl	(sort) Unpl	(sort) Total
1	Alabama	45	3													45	3	48
2	Alaska	0	29														29	29
3	American Samoa	6	3													6	3	9
4	Arizona	50	3													50	3	53
5	Arkansas	34	0													34		34
6	California	170	3													170	3	173
7	Colorado	0	46														46	46
8	Connecticut	27	3													27	3	30
9	Delaware	18	0													18		18
10	District of Columbia	16	3													16	3	19
11	Florida			57												57		57
12	Georgia	72	0													72		72
13	Guam	6	3													6	3	9
14	Hawaii	20	0													20		20
15	Idaho	26	6													26	6	32
16	Illinois	57	13													57	13	70
17	Indiana	27	30													27	30	57
18	Iowa		3		5		10		13				4		5		40	40
19	Kansas	36	3													36	3	39
20	Kentucky	45	0													45		45
21	Louisiana	20	27													20	27	47
22	Maine	0	3		4		10		1				3				21	21
23	Maryland	34	3													34	3	37
24	Massachusetts	40	3													40	3	43
25	Michigan		0	7		20		3								30		30
26	Minnesota	0	41														41	41
27	Mississippi	36	3													36	3	39
28	Missouri	58	0													58		58
29	Montana	25	0													25		25
30	Nebraska	30	3													30	3	33
31	Nevada		3		4		17		3				4		3		34	34
32	New Hampshire		0	7		4		1								12		12
33	New Jersey	52	0													52		52
34	New Mexico	29	3													29	3	32
35	New York	87	14													87	14	101
36	North Carolina	69	0													69		69
37	North Dakota	26	0													26		26
38	Northern Marianas	0	9														9	9
39	Ohio	0	88														88	88
40	Oklahoma	38	3													38	3	41
41	Oregon	27	3													27	3	30
42	Pennsylvania	0	74														74	74
43	Puerto Rico	20	3													20	3	23
44	Rhode Island	17	3													17	3	20
45	South Carolina		0	18				6								24		24
46	South Dakota	24	3													24	3	27
47	Tennessee	52	3													52	3	55
48	Texas	137	3													137	3	140
49	Utah	36	0													36		36
50	Vermont	17	0													17		17
51	Virgin Islands	6	3													6	3	9
52	Virginia	63	0													63		63
53	Washington	19	21													19	21	40
54	West Virginia	27	3													27	3	30
55	Wisconsin	37	3													37	3	40
56	Wyoming	0	2				8				1				3		14	14
Convention		1,681	478	89	13	24	45	10	17	0	1	0	11	0	11	1,804	576	2,380

 

Pl: Pledged or Bound Delegates.
Unpl: Unpledged or Not Bound Delegates

 

---

[Hoodlum91]

Mitt picked up 2 votes in MA from my parents.

Hoping we still have a choice in the Mid-Atlantic states next week.

[sportutegrl]

Whose idea was it to schedule Super Tuesday on Mardi Gras?

[SkyPilot]

I voted for Fred Thompson today at 6:22 am in New Jersey.

And it felt great.

I was so happy he was on the ballot.

Threw my vote away? Fine. Argue against me all you wish. I won't sell out to Flip Romney, McInsane, or the Huckster.

The GOP can go destroy itself now.

[ExSoldier]

I've always wondered what the delegate count is based upon? Is it the same as the alloted numbers of Senators and representatives combined by state? If so, why the disparity between the parties? Hey, my students asked and I didn't know.

[AliVeritas]

[Mercat]

thanks

[SE Mom]

Weather may affect the Ohio, Mississippi and Tennessee valley(s)... outbreak of severe storms expected...

VOTE EARLY!!!

[rightwingintelligentsia]

This is good info. We should e-mail it now to any friends who are in the above states.

[tapatio]

Bump!

[bluebeak]

Only SUCKERS vote for Romney.

He is more liberal than McCain.

If you want to protest vote ... people should vote for Huckabee, Paul, or Apple Sauce.

Romney has supported everything (illegal immigration, campaign finance reform, against bush tax cuts, etc.) that everyone complains about here! Also, he even criticized McCain just in Florida for McCain voting against Medicare Rx (a vote McCain got right).

Don’t let Romney take conservative voters as FOOLS

[varina davis]

Consider these scenarios:

Mitt and Ann Romney at the podium on inaugural day in Washington, D.C. or John and Cindy McCain?

Barack and Michelle Obama or Hillary and Bill Clinton?

As I envision this, there is no question for me who the first couple should be.

I’ll take the values couple.

[greyfoxx39]

PING for the live thread. Thanks for starting this thread, Mom.

[Digital Sniper]

Here...I found this on the floor. I think it must be yours.

You really oughta lay off that stuff. It's bad for you.

[sweet_diane]

Barring something bordering on miraculous, I’ll still need the clothespin to vote come Nov.

[CedarDave]

Caught the six a.m. (8 a.m. eastern) segment of F&F. Discussing Dole’s letter to Limbaugh and how McCain was SOOO conservative compared to Jesse Helms votes back when Dole was in the Senate. Now Dole hasn’t been a senator since 1996 and in the intervening twelve years, McCain has gone sharply to the left. But not a mention of that by the esteemed F&F staff. I was seething and out of courtesy to the dog, didn’t yell or scream or hit the TV with my glass of OJ.

[CitizenM]

Did anyone see what the FOX news network just aired?

First they showed Hillary as she, Bill, and Chelsea left the polls and what she said to reporters. THEN, not as a paid ad...but as part of the on-the-spot interview just aired ..they ran the clip of her tearful, comment along the campaign trail in the restaurant where she said how she worried about America and didn't want to see it go down the drain. You remember: That "softer" side of Hillary she was told to project - so she teared up. I guess they figure she needed a boost with that image, it worked before. They could have run any clip, (or better yet, none) but they ran the one that brought out the sympathetic vote for her. Just the ticket Hillary wanted from FOX today!

Now don't tell me that FOX is not supporting Hillary, Murdoch's girl, and is "Fair and Balanced." FOX wants a Hillary-McCain race and they have employed every covert trick to achieve that.

[Digital Sniper]

Fred Thompson was still on the ballot here in Okla. sorely tempted to vote for him, but McCain must be stopped.

Same in TN, but I voted for Romney.

Dittos in Arizona. Go Romney!

[SE Mom]

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/

Reading tea leaves in Delaware, Montana, and West Virginia

A Campaign Spot reader calls my attention to a couple of numbers for the GOP race in those lesser-watched states, with fewer delegates.

1) ARG did a poll in Delaware that put McCain up 41 to 35 over Romney. Huckabee 7, Paul 5.

Back in October of last year, Fairleigh Dickinson University did a poll, that had Giuliani 37, McCain 14, “Thomson” [sic] 13, Romney 10.

2) The reader notes,

Montana is holding what’s essentially a party leader caucus tomorrow. Rank-and-file Republicans can’t vote. Any poll of the state wouldn’t necessarily tell us much. But Mason-Dixon did poll the state back in December. It had a very small sample, but showed Huckabee leading by 1 - Huckabee 16 percent, Giuliani 15 percent, Romney 13 percent, Thompson 12 percent, McCain 5 percent, Paul 4 percent.

3) “West Virginia selects 18 delegates at their convention, not 9. And they all go to the majority winner statewide, not by CD. (The other 9 delegates are selected in a May primary, 3 each to the winner of WV’s 3 CDs).”

West Virginia will have the first results today - perhaps as early as 12:30 p.m. The AP notes:

Romney and Huckabee each plan to appeal personally for the 18 national delegates up for grabs at the convention, their campaigns said Monday.

Ron Paul announced earlier that he would also attend the Charleston convention. Front-runner John McCain is sending former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer to speak on his behalf.

02/05 09:11 AM

[Minn. 4 Bush]

“... people should vote for Huckabee, Paul, or Apple Sauce.”

NEVER!!!!!

[SkyPilot]

[SE Mom]

http://dyn.politico.com/playbook/

By Mike Allen on February 5, 2008 @ 7:55 AM

BOSTON — Good Super, Monster, Tsunami, Super-Duper, Fat Tuesday. And happy Mardi Gras.

Chelsea Clinton kicked off the family get-out-the-vote effort at 5:45 a.m. by delivering coffee and donut holes to poll workers and voters at the New Haven (Conn.) fire department. Attention ABC and NBC producers: Your Hartford/New Haven affiliates have b-roll.

Asked about her husband on “Letterman” last night, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton said: “Look, in my White House, we will know who wears the pants suits.”

Dave complimented her on being “dressed in red-state red.”

Clinton is hoarse from marathon campaigning, but invoked the Giants’ upset as she quipped: “Every New Yorker has a sore throat after last night.”

TODAY’S TALKER: Clearly hoping the radio host will lay off Sen .John McCain, Bob Dole wrote Rush Limbaugh yesterday to say: “Whoever wins the Republican nomination will need your enthusiastic support. Two terms for the Clintons are enough.”

The banner headline in the Denver Post: “Races in states of frenzy: From coast to coast, in person and on TV, candidates dash for today’s votes in 24 states”: “Colorado, along with 23 other states, is a player in ‘Super Tuesday,’ the closest thing to a national primary the country has ever seen.”

Tonight, Sen. Clinton is in New York City, Sen. Barack Obama is in Chicago, Sen. McCain is in Phoenix, Gov. Mitt Romney is in Boston and Gov. Mike Huckabee is in Little Rock.

ABC will be on the air through all of prime time with “Showdown: Coast to Coast” - continuing on “Nightline” turf for five straight hours, all together.

CBS’s Katie Couric, who had one-on-one’s last night with ALL five major candidates, will anchor coverage from 9 to 11 p.m. Eastern, complete with a cool election-night-style set. (”SportsCenter” meets “Evening News.”)

CBSNews.com posted transcripts of the interviews.

NBC is offering an hour-long edition of “Nightly,” and a Brian Williams “Super Tuesday Special” at 10.

BOB WOODWARD can be seen on washingtonpost.com tonight.

This is cool: C-SPAN 2 will simulcast live election from CBS News Radio, accompanied live results graphics.

The POTUS ‘08 channel on XM satellite radio has an hour-long “High Definition Politics with TAMMY HADDAD” at 6 p.m. Eastern. The gang’s all here: Jessica Yellin, Todd Harris, Bob Shrum, Alexandra Stoddard, even Mikey Allen. Election anchor and program director is Joe Mathieu.

ZEITGEIST 1: USA Today’s cover story is, “Economy’s slide has voters on edge: Americans’ rising anxiety ‘a clear plus for the Democrats.’ “ (So says Greg Valliere, chief political strategist for the Stanford Financial Group.) The jump hed: “Despite most pessimistic outlook since ‘92, many Americans see hope.”

ZEITGEIST 2: Gerald F. Seib’s “Capital Journal” column on the front of today’s Wall Street Journal calls this a character election: “As voting unfolds today on this Super Tuesday, the two hottest candidates at the moment — Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama — are most striking for their ability to appeal to independent voters in the middle of the ideological spectrum, and for their willingness to compromise to get there. In other words, the election of 2008, thus far, is less about ideology and ideas and more about governing style and leadership ability — intangible qualities on which voters are placing a higher priority than on issues.”

ZEITGEIST 3, from L.A. Times A1: College students are glum. “But in a paradox that intrigues analysts — and could well shape the election — they still feel inspired to vote.”

Page 12 of the print edition of today’s Politico sports a nifty “SUPER TUESDAY SCORECARD” showing poll closing times for each of today’s states, along with delegate info and the results of the 2000 nominating contests for Rs and the 2004 races for Ds.

Please e-mail playbook(at)politico.com if you’d like a PDF. Please write “Scorecard” in the subject line.

Also check out our two-page spread, “2008 Super Tuesday Preview.” (Thank you, Paige Connor!)

THE BIG QUESTIONS: Can Gov. Romney, whose staff is trying to show poise and endurance, stun Senator McCain, who’s running away nationally but faces some tightening polls in California? Or has the Straight Talk Express, once up on blocks, now found an express lane to the convention at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul?

Politico’s bicoastal Jonathan Martin: “If Mitt can win the caucus and convention states and pick up a good share of delegates in California, he’s got a rationale to go on. But without a solid showing in the Golden State it’s a lot tougher.”

Can Senator Clinton fulfill the convention wisdom of just a few weeks ago, that she would win more delegates today although Senator Obama is likely to win more states? Or is the fact that Obama raised more than twice as much money in January an indicator of new fundamentals in the race?

Obama had announced his $1M-a-day month — $32M for January. A little bird pointed out to Politico’s Ben Smith that Tim Russert teased a January figure of $13.5 million out Clinton Campaign Chairman Terry McAuliffe on MSNBC yesterday. Ben: “A lot of money by most measures, but less than half of what Obama’s claiming for the month.”

Politico’s Jeanne Cummings: “With the Republican presidential nomination within reach, John McCain is reshaping his campaign to press on without public financing that could limit his spring spending, senior advisers say. The Arizona senator’s rejection of the presidential public financing program he once defended is just the latest evidence of how ineffective the post-Watergate reform has become in an era of multimillion-dollar candidacies.”

[Proud2BeRight]

Question about the Illinois primary:

As I understand it from listening to WLS today, the vote for the GOP presidential candidate means NOTHING. It is the votes for their corresponding delegate that counts. True?

If so, I will vote for Fred (a feel good vote) but select the Romney delegates.

[CindyDawg]

Who ever yall vote for...vote your conscious and DON’T TALK TO THE EXIT POLLERS.

[CindyDawg]

Praying for America.

[austinaero]

I’m looking at the Weather Channel right now and it seems OK may be getting some serious weather. Hopefully there will be enough of a break for people to get out and exercise their Constitutional rights!

[Digital Sniper]

Oooooo! COLD! I got frostbite off that one!! YEE-OUCH!

Thanks! :-)

[modest proposal]

I did my duty this morning and voted for romney cause i want to keep obama and hillary out.

a group of people at the front tried to give me an obama door hanger and i said ‘i’m sorry i don’t support obama’.

>:<

[modest proposal]

I did my duty this morning and voted for romney cause i want to keep obama and hillary out.

a group of people at the front tried to give me an obama door hanger and i said ‘i’m sorry i don’t support obama’.

>:<

[omega4179]

You did the right thing. 20 years od settling for lesser evils has left us with a rigged election and 3 trillion budget.

[SE Mom]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/il/illinois_republican_primary-352.html

I don’t know about the Illinois Republican delegate count- but some states do it the way you outlined.

[retrokitten]

2 votes for Romney in IL district 13!

(me and my husband! We don’t live in Cook County :-))