Posted on 02/11/2008 9:38:57 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 234 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 304 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 237.25 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
If the Dems don’t win this time they need to start a new leftist party.
With McCain at the top of the ticket the GOP will be lucky to carry a dozen states.
The bid price is 35.0 and the ask price is 55.0. These average to 45.0.
Thus, the tie goes to the Democratic Presidential candidate.
Nevada is at 50.0% today.
The bid price is 50.0 and the ask price is 60.0. These average to 55.0.
Thus, the tie goes to the Republican Presidential candidate.
This is vritually the same as posted as last time. Let’s wait till the playoffs are over before we worry about the Super Bowl.
Unfortunately these calculations will mean nothing to those who “intend to pull the lever for Obama”.
Say hello to “president obama”.
I dunno..I say Maine, Michigan, Colorado, and Penn go Republican with Independent McCain on the ticket.
Even if Pubs take Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, and Ohio out of the Dem column there, they just squeek by in the 280 range . . .
My FRiends, demographics after the 1964 alteration of immigration rules and the 1980’s amnesty have run strongly against us. Fight soon or wait for a multi-racial libertarian revolution . . . 50 or 100 years from now . . .
You are drinking cool aid.
What you are saying would be true of Romney.
If you are objective and not using your heart(what you want, not factual).. you would admit McCain has an excellent change to win in November. If Hillary, > 50%. If Obama.. 50/50. If a big foreign policy issue comes up later this year.. it goes to 55/45 McCain.
These haven’t changed in the past month.
Take the ones that are over 80 and put them in the R column. Take the ones under 20 and put them in the D column. The rest are up for grabs at this point.
McCain could completely come unraveled.
The Democrats could have some serious infighting in their convention.
Barack Obama could say something really stupid -- although he's already said he'd invade Pakistan and meet the leaders of North Korea and Iran, so this may not hurt him that much.
So this is highly speculative at this point...
We’re about to elect George McGovern president, with a left wing Congress. Meanwhile I am watching some conservative commentators spend all their time defending themselves, as in Hannity’s asking every guest how anyone can dare to question his purer than the driven snow role in all this.
If this is to be believed, we need to flip Ohio plus 2 of 3 of the following, CO, IA, and MO.
Certainly one reason I hate to put the most liberal senator of 2007 into office with probably the most liberal Congress ever.
Granted, this is an early analysis, but we have 8-1/2 months to go. That is an eternity in politics. IOW, people need to understand, anything can happen between now and election day. Btw, wasn’t Romney leading the pack just a short while back on these Intrade.com futures?
Fight against whom? Both "sides" are against us. 20 million new Democrat voters no matter who is elected. Talking about the Republican Party's "future" is futile.
Looks about right. Ohio is probably a lost cause for the GOP no matter who’s in the final contest, so it’s a Rat in the White House next year.
McCain will be lucky to win anything but Arizona.
If the Dems run an Obama/Clinton ticket he may not even win that.
Dem voters are turning out at twice the rate of republicans in the primaries.
In the general election when the only republican choice is McCain the disparity will get worse.
Dems are collecting contributions at almost twice the rate of republicans.
Why would that get any better when McCain is nominated?
One third or more of the party can’t stand him - they sure aren’t going to give him their money.
November will be the biggest republican bloodbath since 1936.
Gee, same as last week’s. And the week’s before that. And the week’s before that. And the week’s before that. And the week’s before that.
>> Opinions and commentary are welcome. <<
Please, please, please go away... at least until there’s something new to report.
Exactly. And although I've never been a huge fan of Hannity, he's gotten especially insufferable lately. His constant whining and belly-button-gazing is getting quite old.
1) It's not being held today.
2) A lot can happen between now and then.
3) That comment means nothing until November 4th.
Yes. Giuliani was leading, then Romney, now McCain. Things do change.
By November, we will have a data set for 2008, like we did in 2004.
That’s because Hannity and others are thinking about their ratings, book sales, and have lost perspective.
McCain’s a non-starter. Here in Michigan the economy is so fouled up that any Democrat will win. My brother lives in Ohio and says the same.
McCain has a good chance to carry Montana, Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska,...and....and....and....?
This is gonna be a wipeout. Biggest debacle since 1964.
Don’t waste your vote on McCain, vote third party and send the liberals in the GOP a message.
I know this has proven to be a reliable indicator but not this far out. McCain will win NH and NM easily. (That they have JOHN McCAIN at 20 some percent chance in NH is SILLY.) He’ll win IA versus Hillary. Likely win MO versus both. Hillary will NOT win Colorado (her negatives there are bad). OH is more tossup but still favors McCain (especially against Obama). McCain will win Oregon and Pennsylvania versus Hillary.
Even so, with McCain on the ticket I believe Florida, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Virginia at a minimum go the other way.
McCain has dropped 17 points vs. Huckabee and into a tie with Hillary in recent polls. I don’t think this is over yet.
In almost every poll McCain has been blowing out the competition in Virginia. None of those states will go the other way except MAYBE Arkansas.
The impression before Sat. was that McCain was well ahead in Washington and Louisiana and competitive in Kasas. I believe Virginia will be closer than you think. We’ll see tomorrow.
“Certainly one reason I hate to put the most liberal senator of 2007 into office with probably the most liberal Congress ever.”
I would definitely say it is the most liberal Congress, no doubt, most un-American too.
Very scary with Obama or Hillary in there. One positive thing about McCain is he doesn’t like to be challenged. He might get pissed if Hillary or Obama start attacking him in the general, and get pissed off at all Democrats regardless, and he could decide to go nuclear on them.
That being said, Go Huckabee!
These numbers are silly until we know who the RAT nominee will be.
McCain will carry New Mexico. He is probably more popular there than he is in his home state.
You forgot about the “greening” of much of the white population. Even if every immigrant were deported tomorrow, NJ, NY, and MA would still be Dem hellholes.
List of Republican Presidents elected without carrying Ohio:
(there are none)
Not NY. Upstate is a pretty reasonable group of people. It’s the city, which is heavily immigrant, that makes NY so liberal.
Not really. The suburbs of New York are majority Dem (ranging from overwhelmingly so in Westchester, to slightly so in Suffolk), to say nothing of the economic backwaters of Buffalo, Syracuse, and Rochester. Dairy cows can’t vote and all of upstate is bleeding population.
Dairy cows can’t vote and all of upstate is bleeding population.
_________________
Maybe I’ll retire there if that’s true, unless the southern and midwestern states have seceded by then. Upstate NY is gorgeous in the summer.
Aside from Ithaca, the Finger Lakes region would be best. Great Riesling as well (best outside of Europe).
“Btw, wasn’t Romney leading the pack just a short while back on these Intrade.com futures?”
;-)
It predicted Hillary would beat Rudy.
Te race will be McCain v Obama.
(And if Hillary tries to use superdelegates to breat obama, all hell will break loose.)
I think despite conservative caterwauling, this is a lot like the 1976 choice between Ford and Carter - except Obama is even more liberal than Carter, with zero credentials as a real Christian and not a southerner.
If you are objective and not using your heart(what you want, not factual).. you would admit McCain has an excellent change to win in November.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I like facts, let’s look at some, more than half of Republicans despise McCain, as soon as he is nominated the media will turn on him and rip him apart, Hillary has copies of 900 FBI files and a nationwide voting fraud machine, she has a mountain of stuff to dump on McCain, either as “October surprise” material or earlier. McCain has almost no chance of beating Hillary, he might have a chance of beating Obama but only if Hillary goes into a rage and does everything possible to defeat Obama. McCain is the worst possible candidate to run against Hillary and that is exactly the reason the media have been telling you for months that McCain is the only Republican who can beat her. Do you think they would ever say it if they believed it?
If the Dems run an Obama/Clinton ticket he may not even win that.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Surely even Obama cannot be idiot enough to run with Clinton in the VP slot!
It won't be If . . . it will be when she tries to use superdelegates.
She will do anything to get the nomination.
Hhmmm...Any idea of why this is?
Any idea of who we should hold responsible?
Hey, imagine that. Most of the states McCain won during the primary don’t have a prayer of going Republican anyhow.
Why on Earth does the Republican party allow blue states to choose our nominee?
[Why on Earth does the Republican party allow blue states to choose our nominee?}
Blame it on Rudy Giuliani. His campaign pushed for giving New York and New jersey a giver bigger voice in selecting the GOP nominee.
We ought to have partial primaries like the Democrats in every state...where the delegates are apportioned according to the number of votes that they’ve won in each state.
The current system allows NY, NJ, SC, and FL to choose the nominee.
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