Posted on 02/11/2008 2:05:16 PM PST by PlainOleAmerican
Written by JB Williams ©2008 USA
Whether the RNC is trying to destroy the GOP or not, it’s clear that they couldn’t do a better job of destroying it, no matter how hard they try. Making John McCain the RNC nominee is the most certain way to lose the 2008 election. But even if McCain could actually win in November, almost a numerical impossibility by the way, many conservatives have already predicted that even a McCain victory would be the end of the GOP as we know it. What’s the RNC thinking?
Can McCain Win?
While MSM polling data aims to make McCain look like the best the RNC can do, the real numbers say something quite different.
As of this writing, the RNC has completed 30 state primaries. Our “leader” John McCain, has lost 19 of the 30. A little over 16.5 million votes have been cast in Republican primaries so far, only 4.9 million of those for McCain, 30.9%. - with 69.1% of all Republican voters having voted against McCain.
Obama carried his home state of Illinois with 65% of the vote. Clinton carried her adopted home state of New York with 57% of the vote. McCain won his home state too, but with only 47% of the vote, less than half of his constituents. The only states McCain broke above 50% in are liberal stronghold states, Connecticut, New Jersey and New York and in all three cases, both Clinton and Obama defeat him in these states by more than a 2 to 1 margin…
28 states have completed both RNC and DNC primaries thus far. By popular vote, Obama won 14, Clinton 10 and McCain only 4. McCain lost the RNC primary in 3 of those 4 states, averaging only 14% support from Republican primary voters in each. He is at best secure in only 2 of the 4 states, Alaska and Iowa. In the general election, he can indeed lose both Arizona and Nevada.
This is the “winner” RNC heads think they can defeat Democrats with in the fall? How???
The National Popular Vote
All Republicans combined have garnered 16.5 million primary votes in 30 primaries. Democrats Clinton and Obama alone have garnered 17.6 million primary votes in only 28 primaries, 1.1 million more than all Republicans combined. If McCain could unite 100% of Republican voters behind his campaign, and Clinton – Obama only keep their 78% of the Democrat votes, McCain still loses by over 1 million votes… and he can’t unite 100% of Republican voters, no way – no how!
Of more than 22.5 million primary votes cast and counted to date, Clinton has 40% of those votes while Obama has 38% and McCain has but 22%. McCain is not even in striking distance of either Clinton or Obama. Who can McCain invite to share his ticket that will unite GOP voters and deliver the kind of excitement currently found across the political aisle? Only Jesus Christ has such powers… I can think of no other.
If this is the RNC’s idea of choosing a winning candidate, I’d like to see their idea of a losing candidate? Even Bob Dole was a better bet in 1996.
Where can McCain win?
At the moment, it appears that McCain can’t win anywhere but Alaska and Iowa, both of which he lost miserably in the RNC primary, but both of which are SO Republican that even a Republican loser can defeat a Democrat there. He’s not close to winning anywhere else at the moment and unless he finds a way to unite and ignite GOP voters, that’s not likely to change.
How do you elect any candidate with 22% of the popular vote and 30.9% support in his own party? The math simply won’t work.
Clinton – Obama to unite for Proletariat Party Unity
For almost two years now, I have been warning of this eventuality and until Super Tuesday, everyone said I was nuts. Now most political strategists are saying the same thing and here’s why.
Clinton and Obama are in a dead heat right now. Clinton and Obama share 78% of the DNC primary voters, leaving only 22% on the table, most of whom will happily unite behind either candidate by convention time. Clinton currently has 40% of those voters while Obama has 38%.
The two “I’m more socialist than you” candidates are also in a dead heat in the delegate race, Clinton with 1148 and Obama with 1121, both of them flying to North Carolina to negotiate with John Edwards for his 26 delegates. We’re talking a photo finish here for these two.
Obama has won 14 states to Hillary’s 10, but Hillary’s are bigger. If Obama is going to sneak ahead of Clinton to become the DNC nominee, he’s got to do it soon or it will become a numerical impossibility.
A few facts make an Obama nomination plausible, even if unlikely.
• He has no resume, so no BIG negatives like Hillary • He has charisma and momentum – she’s a negative nagging bitch • He has the youth vote for change – she’s crusty old bad news • He’s raising money and she’s out of money
Still, due to a massive well trained Clinton war machine, Hillary remains out front and the woman to beat in this race. Assuming she hangs on until the photo finish and the numbers simply won’t work for Obama to become the clear front-runner, both have a problem that can only be solved by uniting on a single ticket in the general election.
Remember that liberals are nothing if not symbolism over substance. Neither of these two candidates is in any way qualified to become Commander-in-Chief. But that has not had any impact on their voters thus far and it won’t.
That’s because liberals smell an opportunity to make history by putting the first female and first black in the White House in one shot. If you’re a liberal, no matter what this means for the demise of your country, this is a symbolic opportunity you just can’t pass up…
And, if you’re Hillary looking for a sure win in November, you don’t take any chances. You unite 78+% the party in one move by bringing Obama onto your side in the general. Liberals get exactly what they want, two socialists for the price of one and a whole chapter in history that can be written no other way. Republicans are facing the perfect political storm…
If you’re Obama and the numbers just aren’t there, you take a 2nd place finish and run as an incumbent Vice President in four or eight years. He’s young. The ink on his driver’s license isn’t even dry yet… The first black Vice President is HUGE! It makes for great symbolism, even if disastrous for our national future at the same time.
How can McCain compete with that?
Two words – he can’t! If you think he can, check these numbers…
McCain is the worst possible Republican candidate to compete in this election with such historical implications in play. He represents the past, not the future. He’s unpopular with both Democrats and Republicans. There aren’t enough Independents in the world to carry this “Maverick” to victory.
This was either the greatest strategic blunder in the worldwide history of politics, or it was an intentional deathblow to the GOP, delivered at the hands of RNC powerbrokers hell-bent on destroying the conservative party for good. You decide…
Conservatives Golden Parachute
Conservatives have only two bailout options left on the table. Mike Huckabee and the U.S. Senate.
Huckabee is highly unlikely to defeat the MSM golden boy McCain and even if he did, there is little reason to think he would be any better than McCain in the general election or the Oval Office.
So, the Senate is where conservatives must now turn their attention in a BIG way!
Taking back control of the Senate, which must confirm all Supreme Court nominees and pass all legislation, must now become job #1 for all conservatives. The House is not realistically in play, but the closely divided Senate is…
Use the energy and money you were prepared to put into Thompson, Huckabee, Paul, Hunter, Tancredo, Romney, Giuliani or any other Republican, to make certain that a conservative is sitting in your Senate seat after November.
If you can’t put a conservative in your Senate seat this year, take a look at other Senate races where you can help other states pick up a conservative seat in the Senate and put your resources to work there. We’re talking saving a nation here…
Whether Clinton, Obama or McCain sit in the Oval Office for the next four years, who controls the U.S. Senate will be vital to protecting and preserving conservative values and principles for the next ten or twenty years. If conservatives can’t unite around this one, they deserve what they get!
* Real McCain support numbers - http://jb-williams.com/mccain-2008.htm
Well, the article is wrong about IA. It is no Republican stronghold at all. Ask Tom Harkin?
I’ll read it later....but right off the top of my head I’d say
No. But, the RNC is only concerned about keeping politicians in the Swamp. Any politician is okay, ones with R’s next to them give the RNC money.
Well, the article is wrong about IA. It is no Republican stronghold at all. Ask Tom Harkin?
I stopped at the beginning. The premise that the RNC is “making John McCain the nominee” is preposterous. I’m sorry, but in light of a year long campaign, constant changes in front runners, continuing caucuses and primaries across the nation, and the failure of other candidates - this myth of an RNC conspiracy or even ability to pick the nominee approaches the level of a 9/11 denial. Folks, we have watched this process and it wasn’t engineered by any RNC.
The RNC didn’t make McCain the leading nominee, the voters did.
I think many of us have suspected this since before the 2006 mid term elections, when Ken Mehlman was in charge.
The media is to blame for McCain. They have managed to keep the sheeple ignorant, fat and happy.
They pick the schmucks & we've always voted for them because they have an R after their names.
I think they are running into a brick wall this time!!
We're just not playing that game anymore.
Every time I get donation requests from the RNC, I send them a well written short note. Nothing profane, just to the point. They still don’t get it. My guess is since there’s no check in the envelope, they don’t even read the letter. I got another one the other day. I’m sending them a “McCain buck”.
Now I just have to find a picture of one to print out.
I agree with what this person wrote, even to supporting Republican Senators that would be running. Don’t lose sight of that when I tell you that the idea the United States Senate is going to save the conservative’s bacon, goes to show just out screwed we are right now.
The United States Senate is one of the most screwed up bodies in the world as it relates to conservatism. Even when we have majorities there, we get nowhere.
I’ll support the idea, but I do have to view the effort in light of what the Senate always seems to have always been and seems like it will always be.
Then explain how Democrats got little if any support in their primary there?
Excuse me, the party of Whiners is across the street, in the sewer, called DU or something like that. I try not to go there because of the filth.
What is it with all these crybabies? On what planet do they write? It can’t be Earth or the US, it must be some fantasy world where a secret cabal of people determine who is presidential candidate. Because it certainly ignores nine million people who cast their vote and actually /did/ make the selection, as horrid as it be.
But, hey, what am I saying? This is the world of blame. We must blame someone, so we blame the RNC while our neighbors vote for the likes of John McCain.
Word to the author: Get off your rump and go recruit some conservatives to run for office, and some conservatives to help support them into office, and participate.
The GOP is done, and they did it to themselves. If the media helped, the GOP handed them the sword.
The RNC didn’t make McCain the leading nominee, the voters did.
This writer summed it up exactly...McCain is gonna get clobbered
McCain YOUR “front-runner” has LOST 19 of 30 primaries, has only 30.9% “Republican” support in those primaries and only 22% of the national primary votes thus far....
So, HOW did he become the “front-runner” if he wasn’t positioned by the RNC (who is behind him against all conservatives) and the MSM (who is actually for Democrats and have chosen who they will run against by shaping the headlines)?
You can’t be serious! LOL
That's sure true:
the RNC couldn't find their butts with both hands!
What voters? Conervatives? Life-long Republicans? Or RINOs, Democrats who register Republican for primaries but vote Democrat in the generals, or Independent voters?
What voters?
Since 2000 when Bush knocked McCain out in SC...
My guess is since there’s no check in the envelope, they don’t even read the letter
You have guessed correctly.
Having worked at such, I assure you the letters are shredded without a glance.
If you want them to read your letter, include a buck - real money.
It will cost them about that much to file and account for it, as well.
And what has the RNC done to stop them? Or, have they joined them in that effort, GO McCain! Martinez???
Let’s see, Mel F-ing Martinez is the leader there and they are trying to appeal to moderates and liberals in lieu of conservatives so yes I’d say the RNC is trying to destroy the GOP.
I will not vote for a RINO p.o.s.
You hit it right on the head. McCain was anointed well before barely half of the States had even voted or caucused and his coronation is based on an average of between 30-40% of the voters in his OWN PARTY. Not exactly a ringing endorsement and most certainly a harbinger of a complete rout in November.
All true...
Word to you.... Google this author... He did that and much more.... and is still trying to tell “conservatives” how to save what they can and all you can do is attack the writer???
Who’s being a fool? Go read this author, then make assertions on some valid foundation.
Certainly the media did a lot to keep Fred out. And many stupid conservative pundits helped, especially National Review and Hugh Hewitt.
But this article is right on the money. The RNC set this up and really blindsided the base. I confess I had NO IDEA that the nomination process had gotten so screwed up, frontloaded with liberal states and crossover states. We were all played for suckers, and the truth didn’t emerge until the deal was done and McCain had it.
The RNC and the pros had two favored candidates: Giuliani and McCain. when Giuliani faded, McCain was the winner. Sure the media helped McCain a lot, but they couldn’t have done it without the RNC setting it up.
Isn't it nice of the RNC to send us those prepaid envelopes to send our opinions.
“This writer summed it up exactly...McCain is gonna get clobbered. . .”
The clobbering began in 2006 when the news media convinced all the “righteous” to stay home.
So, HOW did he become the “front-runner” if he wasn’t positioned by the RNC (who is behind him against all conservatives) and the MSM (who is actually for Democrats and have chosen who they will run against by shaping the headlines)?
I yield to no one in my disdain for John McCain, but your premise is idiotic and absurd. McCain is in the lead because he's won the most delegates, fair and square. It sucks, but it's true.
ALL conservative candidates were run out of the race before Super Tuesday.... Yet some think they actually had a fair shot.... LOL
Ignorance is ramped in the RNC now. That’s evident even here.
ABSOLUTELY!
A person would have to be brain dead to think that the RNC has EVER been truly conservative in nature. It has always promoted, first and foremost, its own existence and power.
If it is in its perceived best interest to sound conservative, it will sound conservative. If it is in its perceived best interest to sound moderate, it will sound moderate.
The RNC is only what the latest poll tells it to be. That’s party politics.
True conservative candidates have never started-out being RNC supported candidates. Only when the conservative candidate received the support of the majority of voters did the RNC embrace them.
The truth is that the RNC is RINO. Only when the Republican grass-roots majority takes a conservative stand does the RNC truly become faithful to the true Republican creed.
Bush and McStain caused “conservatives” to stay home in 2006 and 2008 is going to make 2006 look like a Republican victory!
All accept the “fair and square” part of course... idiot!
I thought you conspiracy theorists told us that the MSM/FoxNews/Trilateral Commission/the Jews/the RNC were pushing Giuliani? Get your story straight!
Scapegoating the decisions of the primary and caucus voter on to the RNC is foolish. Even intelligent people fall into this trap. Blaming states for frontloading the primary process would be far more accurate. Blaming the RNC for permitting that to happen would be more accurate. But the only ones voting for John McCain are the ones in the ballot booth and the caucus room, not the RNC.
“Is the RNC Trying to Destroy the GOP?”
To those who say “NO” to this question, how would their behavior and treatment of the base be different if they WERE?
Giuliani or McCain... Don’t you read well?
They pimped for both for years now... Can’t you keep up?
McCain was mostly supported by Independants and Democrats who voted for him in Republican primaries. Sometimes legally, sometimes not. Dems don’t really make a distinction there.
McCain supporters are like abused spouses who keep taking the abuser back. If your spouse cheated on you as many times as the GOP has cheated on Conservatives, would you still be with them? Not if you have any self respect.
Wrong- less than four percent of the voting base eliminated Thompson, Brownback, Hunter, Tancredo and maybe Keyes. A very large percentage of the voting base has yet to vote, and now we're down to a "winner". You can't blame this on voters who haven't yet voted.
“The clobbering began in 2006 when the news media convinced all the “righteous” to stay home.”
That wasn’t “the media” it was the Republican Party. Stop making excuses and enabling them or they will never change.
It’s the same on the Left, the people who whine the loudest are the ones who don’t vote.
Clearly, you are in way over your head here...
Who decided to hold early RNC primaries in liberal stronghold states and allow liberals to vote for the Republican nominee so that no conservative was left standing before 99% of Republican got a chance to vote in the primaries?
That would be the RNC Bob....
Obama carried his home state of Illinois with 65% of the vote. Clinton carried her adopted home state of New York with 57% of the vote. McCain won his home state too, but with only 47% of the vote, less than half of his constituents. The only states McCain broke above 50% in are liberal stronghold states, Connecticut, New Jersey and New York and in all three cases, both Clinton and Obama defeat him in these states by more than a 2 to 1 margin. . .
28 states have completed both RNC and DNC primaries thus far. By popular vote, Obama won 14, Clinton 10 and McCain only 4. McCain lost the RNC primary in 3 of those 4 states, averaging only 14% support from Republican primary voters in each. He is at best secure in only 2 of the 4 states, Alaska and Iowa. In the general election, he can indeed lose both Arizona and Nevada.
The stark truth. The only question is whether the history books will declare the RNC Strategery or Rudy Giuliani's non-traditional campaign the stupidest Republican moves of 2008.
Are you really as ignorant as you appear???
99% of Republican voters had NO CHANCE to vote before liberals in New Hampshire and Michigan, along with evangelicals in Iowa, eliminated all conservatives from the race. Then the evangelicals eliminated Thompson in SC and McCain had clear sailing before 99% of Republcans ever had a chance to vote on or after Super Tuesday...
Do you really not know this? By the time Republicans could vote, there was nobody left to vote for...
Who do you hold responsible for that?
Ummm... the RNC?
Aren't those the same folks that gave us McCain, Schwarzenegger, and Giuliani as headliners at the 2004 Convention to help build their legacy and popularity as good "Republicans"?
Excellent, calcowgirl!
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