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ANALYSIS: What Hezbollah could lose in avenging Mughniyah
Haaretz ^ | 2/17/8 | Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel

Posted on 02/16/2008 4:02:48 PM PST by SmithL

The German weekly Der Spiegel reported Saturday that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert plans to declare the two soldiers kidnapped by Hezbollah, Eldad Regev and Udi Goldwasser, dead. Olmert was in Germany last week, and the Germans are the chief mediators between Israel and Hezbollah on this issue. The likelihood that they are dead increases with every day that goes by with no sign of life from them. Israeli security sources confirmed last night that the intelligence community is reassessing the kidnapped soldiers' situation and is likely to make "difficult decisions" on the matter in the coming weeks.

But Israel is not the only one facing "difficult decisions." Exactly 16 years ago today, Israel's assassination of then-Hezbollah secretary-general Abbas Mussawi led to the surprise appointment of Hassan Nasrallah, then only 32, as his successor. This week, Nasrallah must decide how to respond to another assassination of a senior Hezbollah official for which he blames Israel: that of Imad Mughniyah.

For years, Nasrallah has been working on two parallel tracks: consolidating Hezbollah's position as a legitimate Lebanese political party and the leader of the country's Shi'ites, and conducting a violent "resistance" against Israel. For the sake of the former, Nasrallah has abjured certain terrorist tactics used by his predecessor, such as kidnapping Westerners.

Hezbollah also has not committed an attack overseas since 1994.

However, in his speech Thursday, Nasrallah promised to avenge Mughniyah's death and hinted that his reprisal might occur overseas. If it does, this might cost him assets that he has spent years acquiring.

Senior Israel Defense Forces officers said they have "no doubt" that Hezbollah will carry out a "harsh and painful" reprisal, but admitted that they have no clue where it might take place.

(Excerpt) Read more at haaretz.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Israel; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: avenged; hezbollah; hezbullies; hizballah; hizbollah; hizbullah; islam; israel; lebanon; mughniyeh; mugniyah; mugniyeh; nasrallah; rop; ropma; trop; wot

1 posted on 02/16/2008 4:02:53 PM PST by SmithL
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To: SmithL

Everything.


2 posted on 02/16/2008 4:09:04 PM PST by LibWhacker ("I don't like prison. They have the wrong types of bars in there." Charles Bukowski)
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To: All; Jim Robinson; Jet Jaguar; Marine Inspector; Border Enforcer; Squantos; RDTF; Godzilla; ...

ARTICLE SNIPPET: “However, in his speech Thursday, Nasrallah promised to avenge Mughniyah’s death and hinted that his reprisal might occur overseas.”

Question for Nasrallah: In other words, you’re signing your own death warrant?


3 posted on 02/16/2008 4:09:39 PM PST by Cindy
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To: SmithL
Nasrallah seeks preemptive strike.
4 posted on 02/16/2008 4:17:44 PM PST by ricks_place
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To: SmithL
I believe this is the picture of his funeral. It came from an article about him and Syria.

My question is, what did they do, use a wet vac to gather him up?

Photobucket

5 posted on 02/16/2008 4:42:13 PM PST by processing please hold ( "It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong.")
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To: SmithL

I think people are trying too hard on this one. Mugniyah was brought in by the Khomeiniacs after Nasrallah botched the Lebanon war. Think of Nasrallah as Hillary and Mugniyah as Obama pulling away. Unlike the West, in the muslim world the Hillary types get to act out their fantasies.


6 posted on 02/16/2008 4:57:24 PM PST by trek
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To: processing please hold

ROTFL!!!!!! Thanks, I needed that. ;-)


7 posted on 02/16/2008 5:07:15 PM PST by doc1019
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To: doc1019

You’re welcome. ;)


8 posted on 02/16/2008 5:12:02 PM PST by processing please hold ( "It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong.")
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To: SmithL

Latest Haaretz News Flash:

“03:09 Report: Syria, Iran anticipating large armed clash with Israel (Haaretz)”

No details yet. This is getting serious.


9 posted on 02/16/2008 5:17:29 PM PST by waimea.man
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To: waimea.man
This is getting serious.

God bless and protect Israel.

All I can add is, cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war.

10 posted on 02/16/2008 5:32:38 PM PST by processing please hold ( "It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong.")
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To: processing please hold

Maybe they swept up a small pile of dog droppings in the street and figured that it must have been his brain...


11 posted on 02/16/2008 5:42:05 PM PST by The Electrician ("Government is the only enterprise in the world which expands in size when its failures increase.")
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To: The Electrician
Maybe they swept up a small pile of dog droppings in the street and figured that it must have been his brain...

Hahahahaha. Looks like he's in a regular sized box, from pictures of the explosion they wouldn't even need a childs sized shoe box to put his excrement body in.

12 posted on 02/16/2008 6:06:24 PM PST by processing please hold ( "It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong.")
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To: waimea.man
Remember that on January 30th the French arrested 5 cell members plotting an attack on PARIS and The Vatican. Three of them had diplomatic passports from Syria and Lebanon. (see http://fallbackbelmont.blogspot.com/2008/02/daily-roundup-feb-15-2008.html about the Jerusalem Post article)

France may already be fighting as of Jan 30th, in World War IV, cause this implicates several nation-states and France is just hateful when they get pissed.

They could have taken the fact that the plans were for a simultaneous attack on Rome, Paris, London,- that is, European Capital Cities - as an explicit act of war and also Declaration of War in some traditions. Using multiple diplomatic passports and diplomatic immunity - this is beyond a simple screw up.
I don't think this can be stopped from going extremely hot in a very short time because both Hamas and Hezbollah have been caught prepping for some sort of attack.

13 posted on 02/16/2008 6:06:55 PM PST by Republicanus_Tyrannus
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To: Republicanus_Tyrannus

Don’t the realize they’re gonna get their a$$es handed to them?


14 posted on 02/16/2008 6:11:54 PM PST by txhurl
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To: txflake

As my dad would sometimes say, “Sometimes people are just walking sacks of dumb.”

Sorry if it’s a bit explicit if you take what I mean.


15 posted on 02/16/2008 6:22:16 PM PST by Republicanus_Tyrannus
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See, they’re very likely to think with their balls here. They’re a very face-oriented culture. These two recent deaths of major terrorists are pushing the nationstates out into the open.


16 posted on 02/16/2008 6:25:11 PM PST by Republicanus_Tyrannus
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To: SmithL

I wish Israel would indeed declare them dead, along with Shalit, and stop ever negotiating for the lives of prisoners by released hundreds of their own prisoners.


17 posted on 02/16/2008 6:38:42 PM PST by montag813
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To: trek
Nasrallah is not creative enough to attempt something like this.

Plus, he doesn't have the cajones to do anything this bold without the pre-approval of the IRI, which would never be given.

Notwithstanding all of the adulatory coverage from the MSM, the guy is basically a fat dimwit who works as the cat's paw of the mullahs in Tehran and the Ba'athists in Damascus.

18 posted on 02/16/2008 8:19:26 PM PST by Reaganite1984
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To: processing please hold
Mugniyah..bah black sheep, love it when the religion of pieces falls apart.

If there's war I'm sure the SD, and all the rest of the world will consider Israel and the "settlers" as the aggressors....then there will be a time line...then the UN and America will force Israel to give up more land for peace ...and the cycle of hypocisy will continue until the G!d of the Bible tells the angel to sound the trump...there's only so much we can take and it's getting later everyday:

Of course the UN will issue a statement about what an angel Mugniyah is

19 posted on 02/16/2008 10:17:01 PM PST by Karliner ("Things are more like they are now than they ever were before. DDE)
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
If you'd like to be on this middle east/political ping list, please FR mail me.

High Volume. Articles on Israel can also be found by clicking on the Topic or Keyword Israel. or WOT [War on Terror]

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20 posted on 02/17/2008 5:51:46 AM PST by SJackson (If 45 million children had lived, they'd be defending America, filling jobs, paying SS-Z. Miller)
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