Posted on 02/18/2008 7:13:12 PM PST by Extremely Extreme Extremist
Recent polls show that John McCain is in for a struggle in the Republican primary contest in Texas. Despite a recent endorsement from former candidate Mitt Romney and a declaration by much of the American press that McCain is the Republican Nominee, McCain has been forced to stay on the campaign trail and fight for the final delegates needed to win the nomination.
If we have learned anything from this election cycle it is that the polls are not to be trusted. So a 4 point lead in Texas is negligible at this point for McCain. McCain could be further ahead or it could mean a virtual dead heat. A loss or even a close call in Texas would expose McCain as extremely vulnerable in the general election and would not encourage Republicans to consolidate behind a candidate who is not able to carry Bush’s home state even with the President’s stamp of approval.
McCain not being able to crack 50% in his own party after Mitt Romney and the Republican establishment is beginning to line up behind him spells big trouble in November for the GOP.
McCain’s two remaining competitors, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, are showing no signs of dropping out and in Ron Paul’s case; he has stated that he will remain in the race at least until the Republican convention.
How did it get to this point? Well the Christian right refused to put Romney over the top or give Ron Paul, who reflects their values, a closer look. Instead they tried to push Huckabee from the back of the pack to the frontrunner with their support alone, and it just wasn’t going to happen.
It is increasingly looking as if many Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul supporters will never fall in line with McCain. Those that don’t write in or go third party will likely sit this election out, making a Republican win in November highly unlikely. This exposes the fatal flaw of the two party system; it ostracizes well meaning citizens from being able to participate in the process with out holding their nose or feeling their vote is being wasted.
Looking ahead, this year’s election cycle could very well have an effect on the Republican Party for years to come. Romney’s early exit tells us that he hopes to have a future in the Republican Party, possibly to run for President again in the near future.
If McCain goes on to lose in the general election and Romney runs again in four years, it could very well mean the permanent fracturing of the Republican Party, with the Christian Right only supporting the mainstream candidate when he is one of their own. Romney was flatly denied the nomination by the Christian Right and by not taking no for an answer and receiving similar percentages in four years, he would be paving the way again for a centrist Republican candidate who is able to do well in the delegate rich states as McCain has done, but would likely lose to a Democratic incumbent.
imho McCain will get a lot of crossover democrats. maybe enough to make up for his losses among conservatives.
I think, but don't know, that these guys are lifting bits and pieces from the Opinion Strategies and Hamilton Campaigns survey commissioned by the Texas Credit Union League. Rather an interesting survey of likely voters. Has a margin error of 4.9%
I know that I'm supposed to invoke Italy as a cautionary tale any time that someone lambastes the two party system.
But if there were a Conservative party that had about 25% support among the populous and got 25% of the seats in congress, then we could form real coalitions with the RINOs, but ONLY if they gave us some of the things we wanted.
This is the way that the religious parties get anything at all in Israel. If there were a two party system in Israel, there might not be an Israel. The RINO or DINO equivalents would have ceded over most of the country to the Palestinians by now.
I think I'm going to vote for Romney.
For the first time in my life I'll probably not have a yard sign and will not be working FOR the GOP candidate. My first was Goldwater.
Like algore, I don't think he can carry it this fall either
McCain will go down in history as a GOP version of: Dukakis /McGovern /Kerry /Mondale.
Crossover votes from Socialists will serve the GOP well
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and endear them to Conservatives in the future.
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The only way I see McCain will win is if Hitlery wins, Obsama splits the demonrat party and goes independent
Gosh, I love Texans!!!
A lie! A disgusting lie! I know many Evangelical Christians voted for Romney. The reasons I heard were because he had experience as a governor, he had corporate experience, he was a successful businessman. He was a moral family man with no closet skeletons. Also mentioned, and something that cost Huckabee votes, was the lingering odor of the Hope Arkansas Clintons. I personally know of not ONE Evangelical Christian that voted against Romney because of his faith. It needs to be understood that a vote for Huckabee was not necessarily a vote against Romney but that is what the MSM would have everyone believe.
I’ll be staying home in the general unless Mitt Romney is McCain’s VP pick.
“if there were a Conservative party that had about 25% support among the populous and got 25% of the seats in congress, then we could form real coalitions with the RINOs, but ONLY if they gave us some of the things we wanted.”
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There are far more than two parties - Libertarian, Constitutional and Green quickly come to mind. You don’t think of them because they have little power; they have little power due to the dynamics of politics where people want their votes to count.
For example, if the election were to be between a Democrat, a Republican and a ‘Conservative’, and the polls showed 40% for both Democrat and Republican and only 20% for ‘Conservative’, when it came time to vote, many ‘Conservative’ voters will vote for the candidate that has the best chance of defeating the candidate they want the least. The third party thereby keeps getting weaker and weaker.
There are intrinsic reasons we have only two ‘major’ political parties. Review what happened to the Whig party.
Dc 68percent
Md 55 percent
Va 50 percent
New York 51 %
New Jersey 57 %
Mccains 50 %
From what I've been reading on FR and elsewhere, the GOP seems more interested in expanding leftward, to the exclusion of shoring up their right. With both parties moving left, it leaves a big hole that could eventually be filled with a new party, if more Conservatives would stick to their core beliefs instead of the party that has abandoned them.
Bill Clinton was elected POTUS twice without ever getting 50% of the vote.
If you prefer not to vote for a presidential candidate, please consider going to the polls and voting for local, state, and other national candidates of your choice.
This is what would have to change if we wanted a multi-party system.
I am on the fence as to whether we should have a multi-party system, but I am certain that the only way to achieve it is to adopt some election process like what they have in countries with multi-party systems.
A Democratic split could occur without a third party.
But I agree with you. McCain isn't going to be voted in on a groundswell of Republican enthusiasm. If he wins at all, the democrats are going to have to help him.
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