Skip to comments.McCain Has Yet to Exceed 50% in Texas Polls
Posted on 02/18/2008 7:13:12 PM PST by Extremely Extreme Extremist
Recent polls show that John McCain is in for a struggle in the Republican primary contest in Texas. Despite a recent endorsement from former candidate Mitt Romney and a declaration by much of the American press that McCain is the Republican Nominee, McCain has been forced to stay on the campaign trail and fight for the final delegates needed to win the nomination.
If we have learned anything from this election cycle it is that the polls are not to be trusted. So a 4 point lead in Texas is negligible at this point for McCain. McCain could be further ahead or it could mean a virtual dead heat. A loss or even a close call in Texas would expose McCain as extremely vulnerable in the general election and would not encourage Republicans to consolidate behind a candidate who is not able to carry Bushs home state even with the Presidents stamp of approval.
McCain not being able to crack 50% in his own party after Mitt Romney and the Republican establishment is beginning to line up behind him spells big trouble in November for the GOP.
McCains two remaining competitors, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, are showing no signs of dropping out and in Ron Pauls case; he has stated that he will remain in the race at least until the Republican convention.
How did it get to this point? Well the Christian right refused to put Romney over the top or give Ron Paul, who reflects their values, a closer look. Instead they tried to push Huckabee from the back of the pack to the frontrunner with their support alone, and it just wasnt going to happen.
It is increasingly looking as if many Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul supporters will never fall in line with McCain. Those that dont write in or go third party will likely sit this election out, making a Republican win in November highly unlikely. This exposes the fatal flaw of the two party system; it ostracizes well meaning citizens from being able to participate in the process with out holding their nose or feeling their vote is being wasted.
Looking ahead, this years election cycle could very well have an effect on the Republican Party for years to come. Romneys early exit tells us that he hopes to have a future in the Republican Party, possibly to run for President again in the near future.
If McCain goes on to lose in the general election and Romney runs again in four years, it could very well mean the permanent fracturing of the Republican Party, with the Christian Right only supporting the mainstream candidate when he is one of their own. Romney was flatly denied the nomination by the Christian Right and by not taking no for an answer and receiving similar percentages in four years, he would be paving the way again for a centrist Republican candidate who is able to do well in the delegate rich states as McCain has done, but would likely lose to a Democratic incumbent.
Just standing around outside Home Depot making the vulgar catcalls at our women that Americans won’t make and urinating on the landscaping that Americans won’t urinate on.
I think there will be a significant amount of crossover vote in the TX primary.
But even given the considerable crossover vote, I wonder why does McVain think he *deserves* an easy outing in the Lone Star State?
Bush elder headed up the cia. the cia is a liberal agency that follows the money. big money wants the worlds countries united under one big UN umbrella. They cant do it directly so theyll do it by grouping states together. In the new world it will be the NAU and some latin american federation. But that will be followed by a new world superstate.
by this time no one will give a rats ass about any of these superstate things and theyll just be able to merge the new world superstates into oceana europe and asian states. all under the UN.
The criticism of mccain is perfectly appropriate and fair. McCain buys into the whole stupid mess. The way it will be implemented is that the illegals will be legalized.
This is just about the last election where the english speaking America has control over the issue.
The democrats are also sold out to the same thing. Theyll do it faster.
Thats the difference between McCain & the dems. Hell do it slower and more deliberately. the dems will do it faster and with less deliberation.
” . . . Ron Paul, who reflects their values . . .”
I am a member of the Christian right, thank you, and Ron Paul does not reflect either my values or my political leanings.
I consider him an amusing nutcase and resent the erroneous assumption.
He might break 50% of Republicans by next November but I would not be surprised at all if it doesn’t happen even once during the primaries.
McCain will go down in history as a GOP version of: Dukakis /McGovern /Kerry /Mondale.
I’m trying to recall if McCain exceeded 50% of the vote anywhere yet. Do you recall?
I think he’s Captain 35%!
I guess the good news is that anyone who’s endorsed him will either lose a future job in government (dole) or will be flushed by the history books.
I don’t understand all the opposition for someone the media, GOP elite and McCain himself repeatedly tell us he is a Conservative? ;O)
Romney still leads Huckabee by 1.4 million votes two weeks after he has dropped out. The Huckster's main function then was to saddle us with John McCain by shooting at the guy in second place. His main function now is to feed his ego.
Romney, the Mormon, the candidate of the Christian Right?
In my case I don't much identify with the so called "Christian Right", but Romney was only my third choice, at best.
He didn't even crack 50% in his home state of Arizona!
He didn't even crack 50% in his home state of Arizona!
So, what you’re saying is you don’t recall LAST Tuesday? McCain got 50 % in Virginia, 55% in Maryland, and 63% in DC. This isn’t a Congressional committee, it’s OK to remember things.
Dr. Paul and I do indeed agree in matters of basic religious faith. No problem there.
But the article said that he shares my values, and “values” is a much broader term. To say that he reflects the values of the Christian right is a stretch.
The article is flawed in several respects, especially the fact that the latest CNN poll from 2/15 - 2/17 shows McCain w/ 55%; Huckabee is at 32%. That’s a sizable lead (and 55% is greater than 50%).
Not EXACTLY 4, it’s five actually, including the very Republican state of Virginia.
With bare majorities in many district races, the Democrats took control of Congress simply by winning close elections.
"Recent polls show . . ."
Nothing, unless you apply some parameters and even then, the meaning is a guess based upon a snapshot.
I pay attention to polls. They're very useful. Can be very important. But I sure wouldn't bet on or against a horse based solely on one.
imho McCain will get a lot of crossover democrats. maybe enough to make up for his losses among conservatives.
I think, but don't know, that these guys are lifting bits and pieces from the Opinion Strategies and Hamilton Campaigns survey commissioned by the Texas Credit Union League. Rather an interesting survey of likely voters. Has a margin error of 4.9%
I know that I'm supposed to invoke Italy as a cautionary tale any time that someone lambastes the two party system.
But if there were a Conservative party that had about 25% support among the populous and got 25% of the seats in congress, then we could form real coalitions with the RINOs, but ONLY if they gave us some of the things we wanted.
This is the way that the religious parties get anything at all in Israel. If there were a two party system in Israel, there might not be an Israel. The RINO or DINO equivalents would have ceded over most of the country to the Palestinians by now.
I think I'm going to vote for Romney.
For the first time in my life I'll probably not have a yard sign and will not be working FOR the GOP candidate. My first was Goldwater.
Like algore, I don't think he can carry it this fall either
McCain will go down in history as a GOP version of: Dukakis /McGovern /Kerry /Mondale.
Crossover votes from Socialists will serve the GOP well
and endear them to Conservatives in the future.
The only way I see McCain will win is if Hitlery wins, Obsama splits the demonrat party and goes independent
Gosh, I love Texans!!!
A lie! A disgusting lie! I know many Evangelical Christians voted for Romney. The reasons I heard were because he had experience as a governor, he had corporate experience, he was a successful businessman. He was a moral family man with no closet skeletons. Also mentioned, and something that cost Huckabee votes, was the lingering odor of the Hope Arkansas Clintons. I personally know of not ONE Evangelical Christian that voted against Romney because of his faith. It needs to be understood that a vote for Huckabee was not necessarily a vote against Romney but that is what the MSM would have everyone believe.
I’ll be staying home in the general unless Mitt Romney is McCain’s VP pick.
“if there were a Conservative party that had about 25% support among the populous and got 25% of the seats in congress, then we could form real coalitions with the RINOs, but ONLY if they gave us some of the things we wanted.”
There are far more than two parties - Libertarian, Constitutional and Green quickly come to mind. You don’t think of them because they have little power; they have little power due to the dynamics of politics where people want their votes to count.
For example, if the election were to be between a Democrat, a Republican and a ‘Conservative’, and the polls showed 40% for both Democrat and Republican and only 20% for ‘Conservative’, when it came time to vote, many ‘Conservative’ voters will vote for the candidate that has the best chance of defeating the candidate they want the least. The third party thereby keeps getting weaker and weaker.
There are intrinsic reasons we have only two ‘major’ political parties. Review what happened to the Whig party.
Md 55 percent
Va 50 percent
New York 51 %
New Jersey 57 %
Mccains 50 %
From what I've been reading on FR and elsewhere, the GOP seems more interested in expanding leftward, to the exclusion of shoring up their right. With both parties moving left, it leaves a big hole that could eventually be filled with a new party, if more Conservatives would stick to their core beliefs instead of the party that has abandoned them.
Bill Clinton was elected POTUS twice without ever getting 50% of the vote.
If you prefer not to vote for a presidential candidate, please consider going to the polls and voting for local, state, and other national candidates of your choice.
This is what would have to change if we wanted a multi-party system.
I am on the fence as to whether we should have a multi-party system, but I am certain that the only way to achieve it is to adopt some election process like what they have in countries with multi-party systems.
A Democratic split could occur without a third party.
But I agree with you. McCain isn't going to be voted in on a groundswell of Republican enthusiasm. If he wins at all, the democrats are going to have to help him.
Many of the talk show hosts want all Republicans to get behind McCain now and get a lead on democrats. But I think McCain should bear the brunt of conservative displeasure for a while longer.
He needs to know where he's transgressed.
I'm not an evangelical, I'm an agnostic. I also know Mike Huckabee personally, which you obviously do not. And he not only "got out of the gate," he was leading in the polls until a lot of bought-and-paid-for hit pieces started sliming him (OMG, he actually used taxes to pay for desperately needed roads and schools instead of heaping the cost onto the deficit. SOCIALIST!!!) I have supported him from the beginning, through all the ridiculous slander and twisting of his record by his political opponents, the media and the litmus-test loudmouths who flitted from one fantasy "perfect conservative" to another (Paul to Hunter to Thompson to Romney) like Paris Hilton flitting from bar to bar. And I fully intend to vote for him in the Texas primary, the party mouthpieces be damned.
In case nobody's noticed, we now have four candidates still standing (five, if you count Paul) for the most difficult executive job in the world, and only one of them, Huckabee, has any executive experience whatsoever. Granted, since the MSM refers to him only as "former Baptist minister," most casual observers might not even realize he was a lt. governor, a very successful governor for 10-1/2 years, chairman of both the National and Southern Governors' Associations and one of Time Magazine's 5 Best Governors in America for 2005. If I'm stuck with McCain in November, I'll hold my nose and vote for him. But I'm not flushing my choice away, just because the GOP was stupid enough to frontload their selection process with liberal states with open primaries. I will use my vote to make a political statement, while that much, at least, is still legal.
Obama gets the nomination and whites cross over in protest.
The Dems know this too. Thats why they will not allow obsama on the ticket.
Expect more Larry Sinclair types coming out from Obsama’s past.
Lost in the great hoopla of Super Tuesday was the shocking fact that, among white Republicans, McCain only beat Romney 44%-42% in McCain’s home state of Arizona. I’m not surprised that Texas could be a serious embarrassment for McCain.
The only states McCain got more than 50% are New York, New Jersey, Conn., Maryland, and Wash. D.C. These are rock solid blue states that McCain has no chance of carrying in November.
Seemed to work before, but then they were called Reagan Democrats, rather than McCain Democrats...
Of course, he’s beat pretty much everyone else... With more than a two man race it would be rare for ANYONE get more than 50%; it’s really who gets the most and so far that’s been McCain.
Well our consciences will not be keeping us awake
Worry and fear for the future of our Republic probably will. Not to mention the projectile vomiting.