Posted on 02/19/2008 9:15:18 PM PST by Feldkurat_Katz
Kosovo Was Then, This Is Now... [Victor Davis Hanson]
Quite apart from the undeniable merits of independence, in political terms Kosovo 2008 is not quite Kosovo of 1998. Let us count the post-9/11 ways:
1. The rise of radical Islam, especially in Europe, has made Western publics edgy about Muslim-identified states, especially inside Europe.
2. Russia is no longer a basket case, but rearming, aggressive, overflowing with petro-dollars, and eager to use oil — and more — as a weapon.
3. Milosevic is long dead.
4. For six years there has been a steady anti-American drumbeat in Europe and caricatures of the use of “preemption” and “unilateralism”; Euros have so turned off Americans that there is no support for reintervention to solve a “European” problem that should of course, if it worsens, be adjudicated at the Hague and other European Utopian agencies.
5. This was a Clinton thing, and predated George W. Bush. The current tension reminds us of our forgotten American Balkan presence, that seems to have been necessary for the past decade — and without a treaty no less! And did we ever ask Congress to bomb over there, or did we go to the sacrosanct U.N.? Suddenly there are few liberal Harry Reid/Nancy Pelosi talking points to be heard on Kosovo.
6. After Afghanistan and Iraq, there is no likelihood that Americans want a third war, especially for Kosovo. Can you imagine the EU begging the Texan, twangy Halliburtonite, bible-thumping George Bush to please do something now!? I imagine right now President Bush is getting a different sort of phone call from his European friends, “Yo George?”
7. Yet given NATO’s dismal performance in Afghanistan, it has little fides in the Balkans, and the American attitude might be ‘you didn’t want to fight much for Afghanistan, so why should we for Kosovo?’
8. There is some EU support, especially in Eastern Europe and among Orthodox and Greek-speaking communities, for Serbia. Perhaps unfaddish and most un-European, but support nonetheless.
Where does all this leave us? It might be a fine and noble thing for the Kosovars to have their own state like the rest of the regions of the former Yugoslavia. But let us pray that neither Serbia nor Russia calls the Western bluff about guaranteeing Kosovar autonomy, because in the present climate it really would be, well, a big fat bluff.
Victor Davis Hanson is right, the West is not picking fights wisely!
Isn’t Kosovo’s declaration a violation of a UN resolution and a few treaties? I would think that the lefties who adore the UN would condemn Kosovo’s actions.
bttt
Clinton picked that fight. He chose to fight for Muslims against Serbia, a staunch WWII ally.
Why Bush adopted the Clinton position in Kosovo, praticularlly after 9/11, has to be pure Political Correctness...attempted appeasment to the Muslim world.
VDH is too kind in saying "not picking fights wisely". Going with the treasonous State Department flow on a path to disaster is more like it.
Why pray for that? The result will be another jihadist state in Europe. Pray they call the bluff the EU and the nitwits in Foggy Bottom, Condi included, are attempting.
By pinning the U.S. commitment in Kosovo to Europe's commitment in Afghanistan, Gates wants to signal that Europe will be left alone to deal with a still unsteady situation in its own backyard if it does not help the United States in Afghanistan, said officials familiar with the discussions.
Those are VDH's words. If this bluff were called, United States would actually benefit, though not the corrupt elites in Washington D.C.
Yes, it is. The UN declaration 1244 states that Kosovo is a part of Serbia. The mandate for the UN troops in Kosovo is UN resolution 1244 (!!!). Feeling like Alice in Wonderland yet? Here is more.
Here are some quotes from a "non-paper" issued by the Swedish foreign office which lays out the EU policy on Kosovo:
[My underlining]
With UNSCR1244 continuing to be in force, and used to authorize the continued international presence, a full recognition of an independent state of Kosovo hardly seems possible. With the status quo clearly unsustainable, we must seek to develop a European Union policy that can satisfy basic demands for independence and sovereignity while keeping a semblance of respect for international law.
......................
Special attention must be given to northern Kosovo. In all probability, it will declare its de facto independence from the Kosovo authorities and reinforce the present de facto integration of the area in Serbia. It is likely to seek to close the dividing line along the Ibar river.
Such a situation might well lead to armed confrontations, primarily as a result of armed Albanian groups trying to attack the area. Such attacks might in its turn cause more or less massive refugee flows both from enclaves in the rest of Kosovo and from northern Kosovo to Serbia itself.
Thus, we should as a matter of priority explore arrangements for northern Kosovo that might lessen the risk of such confrontations.
In the absence of a mutual agreement, a possibility would be to declare that full UNMIK authority under 1244 remains in northern Kosovo. Thus, the area would not be under Prishtina, although the declared aim of UN authority in the area must be to facilitate the integration of the area with the rest of Kosovo.
With what ease our statesmen (and Condi Rice) are preparing for yet another conflict.
See my post #6. Aren’t we in for some really good times?
How ever did we (and I mean mainly the European countries, although the US has its fair share as well) get saddled with such stupid politicians?
I will not be surprised if the Serb sectors of northern Kosovo do break-off and fuse with Serbia.
Sorry, should be #8.
The US State Department has long had special skills when it comes to doing something friggin’ stupid.
The whole agency needs a house cleaning from top to bottom. There are some good and bright people there, but they are in the minority and are outnumbered by butt-kissing nitwits.
“I will not be surprised if the Serb sectors of northern Kosovo do break-off and fuse with Serbia.”
I hope they do! I also hope that the Serbs in Republika Srpska do so too. It would only be fair and no one can do anything to stop them.
Bump!
True. Kosovo’s action opened the door for the Serb sections to break away and join Serbia. At least, that is the way it seems to me.
Republika Srpska? That is a new one to me. Gads, how many countries occupy the boundaries of the former Yugoslavia? I just performed a Google search for Republika Srpska. Honestly, I never heard of this before today.
Well Bosnia is a “federation” built on the Croat-Muslim political entity and the Serbian entity. The Serbian section does not want to be a part of the rest of Bosnia but is forced into it by the Dayton Accord. The developement in Kosovo has set the precedent that should make their seperation from Bosnia smooth sailing.
You can read up about Republika Srpska here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republika_Srpska
Wouldn’t such an action result in a significant increase in the size of Serbia? I imagine that would be a good thing for Serbia. It would seem that Kosovo’s actions establish a precendent for such a division in Republika Srpska. How is “Srpska” pronounced?
btt
The JNA no longer has the capacity to do what you suggest.
Is it just me, or did we recognize Kosovo pretty darn fast?
Most people apparently don't realize that many of the so-called "neo-conservatives" who have been influential in the Bush administration were clamoring for U.S. intervention in the Balkans back in the late 1990s. Bush never "adopted the Clinton position on Kosovo" at all . . . he was 100% on board with it from Day One.
Read through the names at the bottom of this open letter to Bill Clinton posted here. A couple of these morons ended up working in the Bush administration.
It's important to remember that this letter was written to a disgraced, deviant sexual predator who was about to be impeached for Federal crimes. These people are all full of sh!t.
While fully admitting my limited understanding of the whole thing, I would be surprised if that *didn’t* happen.
It isn’t just you. It was us, France, and the Turks.
What is the JNA? I have lost track of who is who over the last few years.
The chain of screw-ups goes back to Bush I, who dithered and dallied but then recognized the breakaway republics of Yugoslavia and took a pro-Bosnian stand against the Serbs.
He tried to get away with doing nothing, but when Clinton jumped in he thought he could pick up some military glory on the cheap by backing Bosnia and the Albanians and punishing Serbia.
However, had Bush I stayed out of the argument, Clinton would not have had much excuse to intervene.
JNA = Yugoslavian National Army (translated from Jugoslovenska Nacionalna Armija) if I remember correctly.
No. The Bosnians, because they perceive with good reason that we are on their side, will fiercely resist this loss of territory ... even though they don't much control it. This will mean war again between the Bosnians, and the Bosnian Serbs of the Republika Skrpska. They of course they will be helped in some way by the Serbs who naturally want to annex the territory to Serbia, and the Russians. Exactly how the Serbs and Russkis help, i.e., officially, or under the table, remains to be seen.
The Bosnians consider themselves supported by the US, as do the Kosovar Albanians. Naturally, the "independent" Kosovar Albanians don't want to lose Serbian controlled territory either, so they will also resist the Serbs. Suddenly it's 1913 all over again.
Bosnia and the Kosovar Albanians will call upon their Muslim allies, Albania, and us... the question is how do we answer the call? My answer? Call-forward to Moscow and Belgrade. This is an excellent opportunity to get out of the Balkans and let the Czar handle it.
wow, didn’t realize John Bolton signed that letter
Republika Srpska is part of the rump state of Bosnia created by Dayton. It is a monstrosity of a confederation composed of Serb, Croatian, and Muslim republics respectively, who meet in a shame parliament and accomplish absolutley nothing, while each group ethnically cleanses the other from its territory. Only a politically correct EU and U.S. State Dept. advocating such bankrupt policies would hail such a situation as a success.
The intervention was the help the KLA terrorists who were being shut down and controlled by the Serbian police. The U.S. had plans to take away Kosovo from Serbia for a long time before that - politicians like the late Tom Lantos and Bob Dole were stirring up the Albanians and telling them that the U.S. was on their side in the later 1980’s and early ‘90s.
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Since they're our friends now, I wonder if there's a Major League Baseball team in Kosovo's future?
Terrorist states should get into sports, it would be a healthy outlet for them.
He had me at #1
“The rise of radical Islam”
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