Posted on 02/19/2008 11:09:16 PM PST by Checkers
John McCain's victory in the Washington State Presidential Primary tonight should surprise no one. His thrashing of Mike Huckabee, however, and the latter's poor overall showing, is a fascinating storyline.
McCain's win in another non-Southern state tonight was likewise anti-climatic, though thanks to the meaningful and competitive Democratic primary in Wisconsin there was actually an exit poll conducted for the dissection of political junkies. It showed Mike Huckabee getting pounded among non-Evangelicals, losing to McCain 67% - 24%. Those voters comprised 62% of Wisconsin voters casting GOP ballots. That's a pathetic showing in a two-man race.
Alas, there is no exit poll in Washington, but we can be assured based on the results thus far that Huckabee is getting shelled. As of 9:20 tonight, when most counties had reported their one tally for the evening and after initial tallies from King and Pierce (with more poll votes coming), Huckabee was barely beating Mitt Romney in the statewide vote count, 21.15% to 20.48%, with over 363,000 votes counted. Furthermore, Huckabee was actually running 3rd behind McCain and Romney in fourteen counties.
That's amazing. Romney dropped out of the race twelve days ago and Huckabee is still losing to him in that many locales, including larger counties such as Benton, King, and Spokane. Moreover, Huckabee leads Romney by only small margins in a couple significant suburban counties, Clark (1.55%) and Kitsap (1.25%). Given all that, early absentees alone can't account for Romney's totals. And even considering the fact those margins will probably move in Huckabee's favor with later absentee/mail-in votes it's still a serious embarrassment.
(Excerpt) Read more at soundpolitics.com ...
It's simply more proof Huckabee doesn't sell well outside the Evangelical community, especially when contests move beyond the South. It's been a two-man race for two weeks and this is apparently the best Huckabee can muster outside of that core constituency.
Maybe comparing the Washington State GOP to the Soviet Union in the days after the caucuses wasn't the best move after all?
Would you be so kind as to ping your ping list?
Thank you in advance.
I think you find this post interesting.
mccain already has the nomination once you add romney’s votes
Seems to me the bigger story is that over 20% of Republicans would rather throw away their vote on a candidate who’s no longer in the race, and who has even urged them to vote for McCain, than vote for McCain. That does not bode well for the GOP in November.
Huckabee only has the support of the gullible Church ladies. Him and Rudy were at the bottom of my list.
Useful interactive map found here:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/WA.html
“Seems to me the bigger story is that over 20% of Republicans would rather throw away their vote on a candidate who’s no longer in the race, and who has even urged them to vote for McCain, than vote for McCain. That does not bode well for the GOP in November.”
Not to put too fine a point on it, but Huckabee is not cutting it as the anti-McCain alternative.
“Huckabee only has the support of the gullible Church ladies. Him and Rudy were at the bottom of my list.:
Huckabee, McCain and Ron Paul were at the bottom of my list.
~sigh~
BTW: I hope Dick left you some property in his will, a la Leona.
That went right over my head.
Oh, right, my name.
I’m tired.
In that you noticed their actions, I submit, they did not throw their votes away at all.
Their votes spoke, loud and clear.
The analysis of Washington state’s GOP vote is not correct. We have a “vote by mail” option in Washington. In King County (Seattle) about 75% vote by mail. I voted for Romney and mailed my ballot two days before he dropped out. Had I known he would quit, I would have voted for Huck as a protest vote, although I could I never support Huck in the November election.
I hope you know that there are evangelicals all over the country who think of him as The Huckster.
Me, being one...
Please stop labeling people.
Many folks bought into the Fair Tax issue.
Perhaps reality will sink in when it’s finally down to the two main candidates and which one will be better for the troops and judicial nominations.
The strange thing is that Huckabee is the 2nd best speaker in the race this year, behind Obama, however, unlike Obama, he has been unable to turn that good speaking into votes. My own bias says that Republicans are not so easily swayed by a slick speaker as Democrats are.
Hey, there he is, the anti-conservative himself! Where’ve you been hidin’, ari-the-RINO? Or, is it ari-the-Demorat? Ahhhh!! ari-the-Libertarian!
Keep dreamin’, ari guy! Romney’s votes aren’t going to McCain. They’re going third party, write-in and no vote. Either way, that hurts your man McAmnesty. I haven’t decided yet whether to REALLY stick it to McLame (by taking Ann Coulter’s suggestion) or to write in. I’ve given up on The CP. And what’s more, Huckabee’s votes aren’t necessarily going to McQueeg, either. A lot of conservatives have real problems with McNasty...
SO TRUE, papa!
McCain’s people have to bring the wisdom of the conservative grassroots to him. They are not doing that and McCain has been too long inside Washington to understand the little people. I think of him as a Bill O’Reilly sort. Generally decent views, but out-of-touch and not particularly savvy. What worries me is that he will not make the attempt to become savvy.
zeestephen
Well, be that as it may with you, the vast majority of Romneyites (I was one) will not vote for McAmnesty. What isn’t being reported or even discussed here at FR is what Suckabee’s faithful will do. I believe the majority of them will do as I believe Romneyites will do—vote third party, write in or no vote for President.
Keep dreamin’, skr! McNasty is going down, unless he picks Romney as his running mate. At this point, that looks doubtful.
Huckabee made a mistake by just trying to be the “evangelical candidate”.
faith is very very important. dont get me wrong. But the John F. Kennedy campaign style approach to religion and faith is much more humble and proper !
let faith be the ground where ideas grow. not the umbrella over top of you.
Romney as his running mate. At this point, that looks doubtful
Thank God
I'm fighting the temptation to do the same thing here in Texas on 4 March, except I'd vote for Hillary.
But, I'd have to stand in line with all those Democrats and keep quiet while they talk about "change they can believe in."
Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!
lev - I have not made a decision about my vote in November, but since 1972 I have always broken down and voted for the GOP nominee. If Huck got the nomination, I would vote for him, but that event seems very unlikely at the moment.
“It showed Mike Huckabee getting pounded....”
Having read thoses words, I will sleep well. ;>)
You're welcome. Last time until Friday though, as I'll be traveling until then.
Thanks to truth49 for the ping.
Say WA? Evergreen State ping
FReepmail sionnsar if you want on or off this ping list.
Ping sionnsar if you see a Washington state related thread.
I can’t remember the exact date Romney did drop out, was it about the 7th of February (?) but my county, Benton County, here in WA sent the vote-by-mail ballot to me about 3 weeks ago. It may have been that Romney was still in the race if other counties did the same. Here, we are all mail-in ballots except for one county, I believe.
Romney wasnt my first choice but he is looking better every day compared to McCain or the huckster.
The rest of us, who'd like to live to fight another day - EVERY f'n day, are going to fight the mediocrity and duke it out with whatever asshole from whichever party is screwing up our lives, and let them know that issue by issue, we're going to fight them until they succumb.
Try it sometime - it beats the hell out've pissing in your own shoe, which seems to be all you got right now.
IOW, there may not be much difference between the stain and the Rats on social issues, but have you ever bothered to call your Rat a few dozen times on an issue that really means something to you?
I have, and I will, because I have a need for things to go my way, the balls to make an ass out of myself getting it done, and NO patience for losers who are going to counter my vote by sitting on their f'n hands!
I've been in the process of moving and remodeling, and trying to keep track of a few subjects dear to me.
I have had little time to look up and see what the heck has been going down in the belly of WA??? so greatly appreciate your diligence.
FRegards.....
That's amazing. Romney dropped out of the race twelve days ago and Huckabee is still losing to him in that many locales, including larger counties such as Benton, King, and Spokane. Moreover, Huckabee leads Romney by only small margins in a couple significant suburban counties, Clark (1.55%) and Kitsap (1.25%).
thanks for the ping
I agree with you. In the general election, McCain is a one issue candidate, the war on terror. I believe the economy will be very much on peoples minds come November and no other potential vp candidate brings economic muscle to the table like Mitt Romney. He would also do a lot to shore up conservatives in the base.
Huckabee is becoming a non-story. What political capital he had been acquiring is now slipping away.
There is not a “large Mormon” population in Washington. In fact, other than Utah and one other state, there is not a “large Mormon” population anywhere, unless you define less than 10% of the population as “large”.
Romney got votes because of the large advance mail-in. My guess is a lot of people did vote-by-mail at around the time of the caucus, when the candidates were making their big push in the state. Of course, Romney dropped out right before that, but he hadn’t formally endorsed McCain yet.
One thing that last night shows is that Huckabee was not the right “last man standing” against McCain. Romney would have done better. He might not have won, but he had a chance.
If I was Hillary that’s the message I’d be getting out every day between now and Texas — that the Republicans are deciding the democratic primary. It’s clear there is a large crossover, and it’s clear they are voting against Hillary because they hate her.
She needs to get democrats upset about Republicans “picking their nominee”, so she can stir up fear that we are doing so because we know we can beat Obama (whether that is true or not is secondary to her). She needs to get her prominent friends at the NYTimes to join her to give her credibility in the claim.
I think she whould be easier to beat in November, and also would be a better President than Obama, so I wish she would win the nomination, but poorly, and in a way that ticks off Obama’s supporters.
But I understand a lot of people fear the Clintons so much they want her out now, even if it means 4 years of socialist Barack Obama.
Now that it is clear he can’t win, I kind of hope he stays in, and keeps losing, so that McCain still has speeches to make on election night. It helps that he gets the stage with Barack and Hillary.
What was great last night is that at least on the stations I watched Huckabee didn’t get his shot because he happened to start speaking when the democrats were starting. But McCain went right at about 9pm, when people just started tuning in, so he got first shot.
Without any drama, they won’t cover him, and the democrats will get free publicity.
In Washington Romney beat Huckabee in 13 of the 39 counties and for a while Romney was ahead and then neck and neck the reat of the night.
Yes, oh so large. 2-3% of the population is LDS...
Please give the Mormon jibes a rest.
Are you going to let actual facts get in the way of a good anti-McCain rant?
Oh let Huckabee stay in, it gives McCain a free victory speech from now until the Convention.
I’m glad McInsane got the support that he did. It means that they won’t miss my vote at all...
I think you’re right. Huckabee is helping McCain get coverage. I had sworn off voting for McCain, but I don’t think I can stomach Barack ‘Partial birth abortion’ Obama as President. It will be Jimmy Carter all over again. I know we got Reagan after Carter, but the late 70s were dark times.
“I suspect that a lot of Republicans are voting for Obama just out of hatred for Hillary. I have no data to back this notion up. Just a suspicion”
I heard that 10% of the GOP vote in Wisconsin was Republicans and they went 2 to 1 for Obama.
It will be important to bring them home in November or hte most liberal Senator in the US Senate loses.
“This guy [Obama] is very scary. Not only as a candidate as McCain will have a nearly an impossible time beating him, but also as, God forbid, President. THE MOST LIBERAL MEMBER OF THE U.S. SENATE. Good grief that is bad news. Couple that with his being incredible inexperienced and flat our naive/ignorant/wrong on foreign policy and we are in for a world of hurt. The words “abject disaster” come to mind. The incredibly scary thing is how many republican friends I have who buy into his vapid speeches. It is truly frightening.” - Wyatt’s Torch
A likely cause of the strong vote for Romney is the fact that the election was primarily contested through mail in "absentee" ballots. Many of the ballots could have been sent in weeks ago. IIRC correctly, I sent out my ballot shortly after the new year.
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