I think you are being overly optimistic. It is going to look more like this on election night:
Posted on 02/20/2008 5:21:59 AM PST by PRePublic
How Republicans Can Win
Monday, January 7, 2008 9:29 AM
By: John L. Perry Article Font Size
Two possibilities for saving the Republican Party loom large in 2008: Pick a candidate who can realign both parties. Do it in a brokered convention.
Sounds impossible? Not at all. In fact, there is a better likelihood of both things happening this year than in any presidential-election year since 1980, when Ronald Reagan sculpted his revolutionary coalition of social, economic, and national-security conservatives.
He did it by showing enough independents and “Reagan Democrats” that their best interests lay in a political party led by someone with unwavering fidelity to those blessed ties that bound them together.
That sounds like so much mush and wistful thinking in this current circus into which the national media have corrupted an already goofus political sack race of early primaries.
It was an anthropologist’s delight to witness their coverage of the Iowa cluster-copulation. Broadcast networks, blog-cloggers, and incessant-cable chatterers worked themselves into an unseemly frenzy, leading up to and during the frozen caucuses. It was simply embarrassing to watch adults engaging in such puerile exhibitionism.
To listen to them carrying on so, worshipping at the shrine of each newly minted opinion poll and falling all over themselves when real life failed to support the revelations from their owls’ entrails, one would think something actually important was taking place — indeed, nothing short of a new age dawning.
Tear yourself away from the tube long enough for some common-sense conversation with family, friends, and the local barber. It’s like walking out of a psychedelic fog bank into fresh air and sunlight.
In the Republican lists especially, trying to gauge which candidate is ahead of whom day by day during one primary and then on into the fast-revolving door of each successive primary is like handicapping a horse race frame-by-frame with a high-speed camera over a year-long track. It’s reminiscent of a troop of Boy Scouts on their first 12-mile hike, consulting a compass and Texaco map every three minutes and saying, “Here we are, but where are we?”
Because of that head-swimming tsunami of irrelevant information spewing from every masscomm orifice, this is going to sound far fetched. Indeed, it is fetched far from what appears at the moment to be reality. It takes a patient climb to a higher elevation to see how the land really lies, what the realities clearly are:
Clear reality No. 1: The nomination is not destined to be decided in the so-called Super-Duper Tuesday, Feb. 5, GOP primaries (19 of them on that one day).
Clear reality No. 2: Who’s in, who’s out on any given day of any given week along the route to the Sept. 1-4 Republican National Convention in Minneapolis will not determine the nominee.
Clear reality No. 3: Between now and Sept. 1 will be some of the nastier blood-lettings, cock fights and pit-bull battles ever seen in American politics. Tons of money will be raised, spent and squandered. Masscomm ringmasters will stir the caldron like crazy for their gratification. The dumber the candidates, the more they will oblige, offering themselves as human sacrifices to appease and supplicate the insatiable media gods.
Clear reality No. 4: Even if one candidate manages to assemble enough delegates to command dominance at the onset of the convention, it won’t be enough. It might be numerically, but not real-politically. The more-bloodied candidates will have to stand back — and give way to one who is not shell-shocked and disgustingly savaged.
Clear reality No. 5: There will still be rational men and women of ultimate influence within the GOP convention. They will have the presence of mind to survey the carnage. What they will see is an American populace absolutely fed up with politics of the outrageous.
Because they have to, they will agree among themselves the party simply cannot send out one of its tarred-and-feathered combatants to face the American people in broad daylight. They will look for, and settle upon, a candidate who can save their bacon for them.
Clear reality No. 6: What will be their criteria? It will be someone who realizes, as they do, no Republican is going to be elected president in 2008 by Republican voters alone. They will comprehend that this country is not further left from center than it is right of center. Conservative verities will still be those of a majority of the electorate.
A Republican nominee can still sell those common-sense verities to enough independents and conservative Democrats to carry the day. In short, there will be a belated resurrection of the victorious Reagan coalition.
Clear reality No. 7: It will take a Republican who is a clean-hands conservative, who has not waffled or come up 25 percent short on principles to be able to make that sale to the electorate.
Clear reality No. 8: Any candidate who succumbs during the primary gingham-dog-and-calico-cat fights out of fear of dropping off the media radar will have self-ejected. Standing consistently on principle, a common-sense conservative candidate can survive the primary season, even though losing more times than winning.
Clear reality No. 9: Is such a candidate now in the Republican ranks? There is. Even at this early date it should be obvious to anyone with an ear tuned to Reagan-tested conservative principles.
A candidate exists who understands these principles reach across party lines, and can be articulated in a way that illuminates without adulterating or betraying them. Every voter should start looking at candidates with those criteria foremost in mind. That’s the litmus test.
Clear reality No. 10: If this scenario plays out — and it assuredly can — the Republican National Convention has a truly historic opportunity Sept. 1-4. It can realign, and thereby revitalize, the GOP. That can also be the catalytic agent triggering a reformation of the Democratic Party, compelling it to banish the leftist radicals who have seized its throat. That would be nothing short of a rescue of the two-party system, without which the United States cannot long endure.
And it wouldn’t be the first time the Grand Old Party was in position to save the nation.
John L. Perry, a prize-winning newspaper editor and writer who served on White House staffs of two presidents, is a regular columnist for Newsmax.com.
McCain has it sown up, period.
If H KKKlintler pulls the thing out with super-delegates and by gaming the system as is likely, the door will be open to a very real third party shot which, should it win, would spell the final end of the dem party.
...or we’ll just vote for Ron Paul and downsize our government back to managable levels so we don’t have to worry about the Feds ruling our lives...
He will get a RINO/independent landslide, so the MSM predicts
I agree. He’ll have the votes necessary on the first round. End of story.
Many of us wish it weren’t so, but it is.
Has John L. Perry ever informed himself of the traitorus acts of either Houses of our government?
And if he has, just how in the hell does he think we can "reach across party lines", never mind the idiotic thought that the Democrats will purge their leftist moonbats.
Exactly what hallucinogens does this guy take, and can I get some?
The real problem with this editorial is that it was written a few days after the Iowa caucus, but before the New Hampshire primary — it’s no longer relevant.
Read the date the editorial was published, January 7th, it made sense then, it doesn’t now.
Dan Quayle perhaps. Newt, never.
That article never made sense.
Damn, my hopes were up until I saw the date of the article...must resume drinking.
lol, good one.
About the only way Republicans can win is to ditch McQueeg. Barring a miracle on the order of the ‘69 Mets, that’ll never happen, and the old fart will go down in flames come November.
I’m predicting a 30+ state victory for the democrats.
Why?
In part because the majority of Americans aren’t pure partisans but mostly because people will vote for democrats in far greater numbers. The fact that McCain is winning with far fewer votes than Hillary is losing with is a pretty good indicator of where things are going.
Better to accept reality now and stand ready to fight than spend 6 months in shock as the democrats push every liberal policy they wish without opposition.
Ayup...
Assuming Obama is nominated, McCain should also win Utah and Mississippi. He will probably squeak by in a couple of other states. But Obama will win well over 40 states.
If it’s against Hillary, the map will probably look similar to 1992 or 1996, but the states that McCain manages to win will be by very narrow margins.
How the Republicans can win:
Let the democrats pick inexperienced candidates who are incompetant in a debate situation. These democrat candidates should be chosen for their physical characteristics rather than anything of substance.
Then let these candidates divide their electorate by not winning a majority of the delegates. Then the issue of gender and race will rear its ugly head when the candidate is chosen by a bunch of superdelegates who are mostly middle-aged white males.
...
Oh wait...
McCain is a dead man walking.
I wouldn’t count on AZ. McCain only won his home state in the primaries with 47%, the lowest of any top tier candidate in his/her home state.
Hey, look, the right color for the GOP for a change.
I’d hate to see him on a 40 inch HDTV.
The author notes that the way Republicans can win is with a candidate that can cross the boundary and pick up independents and democrats.
Like it or not, we have that candidate. McCain can get independents (he has Joe Leiberman endorsing him). He can can get Democrats (large numbers of white male older democrats who don’t buy “hope”).
In fact, the only group he has trouble getting is the conservatives.
But that’s us, and we can handle that for him, if we decide that the important thing is to save our country from Barack Obama, rather than gaining back power for republicans in 2012.
I understood the angst last year when our nominee looked like Rudy Giuliani. McCain is no Rudy. We have serious problems with McCain, but they are policy issues and we have much more serious policy issues with Obama and Hillary.
In the primary, it made sense to be scared of what McCain MIGHT do as President, like whether he would really appoint good judges, whether he would push amnesty.
But since he is our candidate, the “fears” need to be replaced with the reality. We KNOW what the democrats will do to us. We THINK McCain won’t be nearly so bad. He SAYS he will do some good things, and since now he’s the nominee, better to pick a guy who says he will do what you want, and hope he keeps his word, than allow the election of a person who says he will do exactly OPPOSITE of what you want, in the vain hope that you can stop him somehow.
Remember this as well. McCain in the Senate with Obama as President is much more dangerous for those causes than McCain as President and Obama in the Senate.
Obama will not win the south. His appeal in the south is to the same constituents who always show up in droves to vote for whoever the democrat is in November.
Obama does not bring new voters into the process. He might drive up the black turnout, but not more than enough to overcome the natural bigotry of the white democrats in the south who will SAY they will vote for him, but then vote for McCain.
The question is whether McCain wins the battleground states. And frankly, at this point (and it’s very early), he polls better even against Obama than Bush did in 2004 against Kerry, in some of those states.
I happen to think McCain is probably our BEST candidate to hold Virginia, for example, certainly against Hillary, but even against Obama. We have a large military contingent.
A simple way to win: make a sharp turn to the right. Then go full speed ahead.
Virginia was the first state in the “solid south” to abandon the Democrats and the only Republican to lose Virginia since 1952 was Goldwater. In 1976 Virginia was the only southern state carried by Ford. There are a lot of liberals moving to Northern Virginia, but the state is still pretty conservative. So, the reality is that if we reach a point where Virginia is “in play” it really doesn’t matter anymore because we have a disaster on our hands.
Whatever it takes to convince yourself I guess.
However, the South is changing. Black Southerners are solidly Democrat, and their numbers are increasing due to in-migration of African Americans from the Northen "Rust Belt". Immigration from Latin America and higher Hispanic birth rates are adding liberal voters in the mix, as does the migration of Northeasterners, not only in Florida, but in all the South Atlantic states. Furthermore, many young people in the South, old stock Anglo-Protestant Southerners included, have been negatively affected by the degeneracy in the overall culture and the defective public school system and increasingly support leftist causes.
With the enthusiasm for Obama and lackluster support for McCain, the GOP may not be able to count upon a Solid South as its electoral base in November.
The white democrats who won’t vote for Obama in the south are the same white democrats who won’t vote for him in the north.
It’s just that in New YOrk, it’s unlikely to be close enough that the few percent that don’t show up for Obama would be enough to change the outcome.
I see no reason why the south should suddenly decide to vote for the most liberal democrat who has run in the last 20 years, a man with no experience, simply because he is black.
My statement suggested more than I meant. I think the white democrats in the north are just as bigoted as the white democrats of the south.
If I’m wrong, what have I lost? If you are wrong, you have discouraged people from voting, and helped bring on the disaster you expect.
There are enough people in the country who could vote for McCain that he could win. This isn’t like a sporting contest where there is some skill level that makes it nigh impossible for another to come out ahead.
We all knew McCain couldn’t win the republican nomination, and yet he did it. And if you listen to his speech last night, he is clearly the more qualified of the candidates who are still in the running.
But if people don’t think he can win, he won’t.
If Hillary gets the nomination by (perceived or actual) dirty dealings, McCain will win; too many Obama supporters will stay home.
That’s true. I think that McCain might have a chance against Hillary. I cannot envision a scenario where he can beat Obama.
When you have been winning elections by a comfortable 300 thousand vote margin, and then over a 10 year period 500,000 liberal government employees move into your state, that 300,000 vote cushion isn’t looking so hot.
Webb won election last year because he was the military guym and Allen was not. If you had given Allen a military background, he would have won the election, even with everything else the same.
The bottom line is that the "yellow dog" Democrat is no longer much of a factor in the South.
If George Allen had not said the word “Macaca” he would probably be the GOP nominee right now.
I respectfully disagree about Obama’s chances in the south. The Dixiecrat mentality is fading more and more each year due to demographic changes caused by migration and the old guard dying off.
If McCain errupts in anger even once during the campaign, or if a conservative third party is on the ballot, I fear a 50 state sweep for Obama is not an impossibility, with the coattails creating a Democrat mega majority in Congress.
Obama is an empty suit, void of experience and ideas, but
he offers the sheeple a reason to vote for him, he makes them feel good via charisma. God help our nation !
Since in this case outcome is driven by expectations, I don’t see this as being dishonest to build up those expectations, given that if I am successful, I will also be correct.
McCain has already proven he can win when we all thought he couldn’t.
Leiberman is with him. I know that sounds random, but there’s a good chance McCain can take Connecticut just on the strength of Leiberman’s endorsement.
I think McCain can win Virginia because of his military background. Some democratic bloggers who are pretty smart about this also think he saves at least one of our vulnerable house seats.
The thing that makes him unappealing to conservatives makes him appealing to independents, who did brave the weather and the time and effort to come join our primaries to vote for him.
People like the center, and if we can successfully put Obama where is really is on the far left, the middle will flock to the guy who epitomizes the mushy middle, and that’s McCain.
Look, if we had a solid conservative, we’d spend the next 4 months figuring out how we could convince independents to support our conservative. Since we are conservatives, we’d be appealing to people we don’t understand.
But now, hate is as we do, we have a candidate who aleady has the independents taken care of. What he needs is conservatives. Guess what — we are conservatives, we understand conservatives.
The outcome of the election is in our hands. If we conservatives decide we’d rather have Obama, we can stay home and Obama wins.
If we decide that we’d rather have a country and be safe from terrorism and not lose the middle east, we give the message to our other conservatives, we turn out, we elect conservative republicans, and in the process we get John McCain as President.
Those who would rather have Obama than McCain are a lost cause to me.
Those who simply think we can’t win the election, I can work on.
According to McQueeg, it's called "pandering" only when applied to conservatives. McC has no problem pandering to illegals
McCain chose a dual-loyalty traitor to be his "Hispanic Outreach Director." Talk about pandering-----McCain said he chose Hernandez because he agrees with his positions.
Juan Hernandez was born in Dallas and decided as an adult to become a dual-national Mexican citizen. His last verifiable job was serving in Mexican President Vicente Fox's cabinet as Fox's "American Reconquista Director."
Hernandez then worked for Bush hater George Soros' international foundations---(one such foundation published Hernendez's book that taunts Americans).
Hernandez believes all illegal Mexicans and Mexican-Americans in the USA should become dual citizens and consider themselves Mexicans first, "to the 8th generation."
The "New American Pioneers" proclaimed in his book are the illegal alien invaders he urges to become settlers in the USA for "Reconquista"---the plan to take back the SW.
===================================
Another group now backing McCain is Billy Kristol (Fox pundit) his daddy, and their crowd---who are cheerleaders for the current admin's most destructive polices---including the twice-failed illegals amnesty plan.
The Kristols are also the architects of Giuliani's failed strategy to religiously cleanse the Repub party and kick conservatievs to the curb. They switched to McCain when their boy Giuliani tanked like a deadweight going down a 300 ft cistern.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.