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September 2008 - Phase of collapse of US real economy
Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin ^ | 2008.02.16 | GEAB

Posted on 02/20/2008 7:43:04 PM PST by B-Chan

According to LEAP/E2020, the end of the third quarter of 2008 will be marked by a new tipping point in the unfolding of the global systemic crisis. At that time indeed, the cumulated impact of the various sequences of the crisis... will reach its maximum strength and affect decisively the very heart of the systems concerned, on the frontline of which the United States, epicentre of the current crisis. In the United States, this new tipping point will translate into a collapse of the real economy, final socio-economic stage of the serial bursting of the housing and financial bubbles and of the pursuance of the US dollar fall. The collapse of US real economy means the virtual freeze of the American economic machinery: private and public bankruptcies in large numbers, companies and public services closing down massively...

A revealing harbinger: from March 2008 onward, the US government will stop a service publishing its economic indicators due to budget restrictions . Those who read the GEAB N°2 (02/2006) and included Alert certainly keep in mind our anticipation which connected the upcoming fall of the US dollar with the US Fed's decision to cease publishing the M3 indicator. This new decision is another clear sign that US leaders are now anticipating a very bleak economic outlook for their country.

[...]

In this 22nd issue of the GEAB, LEAP/E2020's experts try in particular to anticipate very specifically what will come out of the collapse of the US real economy for the United States themselves and for the other regions of the world. Meanwhile our team presents five sets of strategic and operational recommendations helping to protect oneself from the upcoming deterioration of the global systemic crisis... LEAP/E2020 wishes to remind that we are now resolutely stepping into an era with no historical precedent. Our researchers insisted on that many times in the last two years: any comparison with the previous crises of our modern economy would be fallacious. It is neither a “remake” of the 1929 crisis nor a repetition of the 1970s oil crises or 1987 stock market crisis. It is truly a global systemic crisis, that is to say a crisis affecting the entire planet and questioning the very foundations of the international system upon which the world was organised in the last decades.

According to LEAP/E2020, it is also instructive to observe that, two years after the release of this « Alert » which at the time generated both the interest of millions of readers worldwide and the condescending irony of most « experts » and « managers » of the economic and financial spheres, everyone is now convinced that a crisis is truly happening, that it is really global, and for most people already that it could indeed be systemic. However, it is always a repeated astonishment for our team to see the degree of incapacity of these same experts and managers in understanding the specific nature of the phenomenon currently unfolding. According to them, this crisis would only be a usual crisis but bigger. As a matter of fact that's how the financial media reflect the dominant interpretations of the ongoing crisis. According to our team, this approach is not only intellectually lazy, it is also morally guilty, because it has for a main consequence to prevent their readers (whether they are simple citizens, private investors or public or private organisation managers) from preparing for the upcoming shocks...

For this reason, in opposition to all what can be read in the mainstream media always eager to conceal the truth and serve the interests of those who rule them, LEAP/E2020 wishes to remind that it is first and foremost in the United States that the systemic crisis is taking an unprecedented shape (the « Very Great US Depression » as our team decided to call it in January 2007) because it is around this country, and this country alone, that the world got progressively organised after the second World War. The various issues of the GEAB extensively described this situation. In short, it appears to be useful to make clear that neither Europe nor Asia have a negative saving rate, a full-scale housing crisis throwing millions of citizens out of their homes, a free-falling currency, abysmal public and trade deficits, an economic recession and, on top of all this, a number of costly wars to finance.

Neither Asia nor Europe (or more precisely ‘nor the Eurozone') will suffer the roughest, the most sustainable and the most negative impact of the ongoing crisis; but the United States will, as well as all the countries/economies strongly linked to the US (what our experts have decided to call “the American risk”). A “decoupling” is indeed taking place between the US economy and the other large regions of the world. But “decoupling” does not mean “independence” and it is clear that, as anticipated by LEAP/E2020 for many months, Asia and Europe will be affected by the crisis. But « decoupling » entails that the evolution of the US economy and of the other large regions of the world are no longer synchronised, that Asia and Europe are now moving along courses no longer determined by the US economy.

The global systemic crisis is in fact the beginning of an economic « decoupling » between the US and the rest of the world, knowing that the non « decoupled » economies will be dragged down the US negative spiral...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Germany; Government
KEYWORDS: crisis; economy; europe; future
Posted because I love attempts to predict the future.

I make no claim as to the accuracy of this outfit's prognostications. They may possibly be selling something. Still, it's thought-provoking...

More bad news (clunkily translated from the German) at the Quelle.

1 posted on 02/20/2008 7:43:06 PM PST by B-Chan
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To: B-Chan

It sounds like listening to Edgar Cayce on speed.


2 posted on 02/20/2008 7:45:26 PM PST by sinanju
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To: B-Chan

Or Jeanne Dixon after a knock on the head.


3 posted on 02/20/2008 7:46:09 PM PST by sinanju
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To: B-Chan

So now these here folks are saying the world’s coming to an end in SEPT 08 - just in time!


4 posted on 02/20/2008 7:48:01 PM PST by Ken522
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To: B-Chan

Is this LEAP/E2020 gizmo like one of those magic 8-balls that you shake real hard and...


5 posted on 02/20/2008 7:48:04 PM PST by sinanju
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To: B-Chan

The translation ended before we could get to the part about a volcano erupting under Manhattan, California sliding into the sea and Atlantis rising again.


6 posted on 02/20/2008 7:50:47 PM PST by sinanju
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To: B-Chan
Fascinating and scary article. Who knew? Doom and gloom - probably written by an Obamaniac.

My guess is that this will come true only if something catastrophic happened - for instance, an EMI event over New York City that takes down our financial networks, or China flooding the market with their T-bills ... but why would they do that?

7 posted on 02/20/2008 7:50:57 PM PST by RandyRep (Winning is the ONLY responsible option in Iraq.)
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To: B-Chan

Should I start smoking again? Maybe it’s not worth quiting now.


8 posted on 02/20/2008 7:53:10 PM PST by RC2
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To: B-Chan

. . . And please buy gold


9 posted on 02/20/2008 7:55:02 PM PST by lonestar67 (Its time to withdraw from the War on Bush-- your side is hopelessly lost in a quagmire.)
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To: B-Chan
They may possibly be selling something.

Yes. The fragment available is the teaser. To find out what steps to take to avoid financial armageddeon you need to buy the various reports.

Subscribe Remember Ravi Batra, the Indian economist who managed to peddle a series of books "Survive the Coming Crash" "The Depression of 1980", etc. Always a good business selling doom and gloom.

Personally my portfolio is doing very nicely this year.

10 posted on 02/20/2008 7:55:22 PM PST by Jack Black
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To: B-Chan

Well, the Government is shutting down the website that reports this things due to “budget constraints”. I assume the data will still be available. This does strike me as very strange, however, given the importance of these numbers.


11 posted on 02/20/2008 7:55:47 PM PST by rbg81 (DRAIN THE SWAMP!!)
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To: B-Chan
Europeans wishing and hoping for the collapse of the United States of America.

So, what else is new?

12 posted on 02/20/2008 7:55:54 PM PST by Thumper1960 (Unleash the Dogs of War as a Minority, or perish as a party.)
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To: B-Chan

Nothing personal, but, PUKE!

I don’t believe we are done.

There’s going to be many more depressed fools in the world when we continue on.


13 posted on 02/20/2008 7:57:12 PM PST by DB
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To: Thumper1960

The thing is that Europe will also suffer massive economic difficulties should the US experience a major downturn.


14 posted on 02/20/2008 8:05:31 PM PST by Thunder90
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To: B-Chan

Do they archive this $hit so we can see how bad it is?


15 posted on 02/20/2008 8:21:59 PM PST by Wally_Kalbacken (Seldom right but never in doubt)
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To: B-Chan
Ahh. Here they are:

Well that one never happened! Wasn't that the start of the biggest stock boom in history that lasted a decade? Good we followed his advice!! Of course a decade later there was a new generation of suckers to sell it to:

Book is from 2002. Predicted a big stock market crash in 2003. He says "deflation". Ravi says "inflation". Whatever!

He too is serial doom-and-gloom author having been spectacularly wrong in the early 1990s with his previous book, also suggesting imminent stock crash


16 posted on 02/20/2008 8:22:38 PM PST by Jack Black
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To: Thunder90

Europeans haven’t been very good on choosing the correct paths to follow over the past few hundred years.


17 posted on 02/20/2008 8:25:43 PM PST by Thumper1960 (Unleash the Dogs of War as a Minority, or perish as a party.)
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To: RC2

Image ©Bruce Lewis/Flickr

18 posted on 02/20/2008 8:26:59 PM PST by B-Chan (Catholic. Monarchist. Texan. Any questions?)
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To: B-Chan
In short, it appears to be useful to make clear that neither Europe nor Asia have a negative saving rate, a full-scale housing crisis throwing millions of citizens out of their homes, a free-falling currency, abysmal public and trade deficits, an economic recession and, on top of all this, a number of costly wars to finance.

Disgusting, lying, arrogant, un-appreciative bastards.
19 posted on 02/20/2008 8:34:41 PM PST by papasmurf (I'm not worried anymore. I read Obama's "Blueprint for Change".)
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To: B-Chan

September ‘08, eh? But there’ll be one last chance to fix it in Novernmer ‘08 if we’re “smart” enough to elect Obama the “12th Imam”. I just betcha! Now. I didn’t intentionally link that to your post encouraging people to “Have A Fag”, but maybe it’s just synchronicity.


20 posted on 02/20/2008 8:36:23 PM PST by Emmett McCarthy
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To: B-Chan

Is the guy on the bottom right young Ron Paul?


21 posted on 02/20/2008 8:39:11 PM PST by GlennBeck08
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To: GlennBeck08

No. Ron Paul would never appear in print near the word “fag”.


22 posted on 02/20/2008 8:40:53 PM PST by B-Chan (Catholic. Monarchist. Texan. Any questions?)
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To: sinanju
[ It sounds like listening to Edgar Cayce on speed.
Or Jeanne Dixon after a knock on the head. ]

LoL............

23 posted on 02/20/2008 8:42:52 PM PST by hosepipe (CAUTION: This propaganda is laced with hyperbole....)
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To: B-Chan

Isn’t that what Larry Sinclair said to Obama in the back seat of a limo with a bunch of Cocaine?


24 posted on 02/20/2008 8:45:36 PM PST by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: B-Chan

“the end of the third quarter of 2008 will be marked by a new tipping point in the unfolding of the global systemic crisis”

Well duh! That will be right before the election. I predict doom and gloom economic news from the media too.


25 posted on 02/20/2008 8:46:23 PM PST by faq (I, for one, welcome our new socialist overlords.)
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To: lonestar67

It took ten posts to get to ‘’gold’’?

We are not trying hard enough here people......


26 posted on 02/20/2008 8:52:40 PM PST by ASOC (Tagline free for months and still going (Oh, wait........))
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To: B-Chan

The Fed cut its growth forecast for this year by half a percent to a new range of between 1.3% and 2%.

The US central bank also said the jobless rate could be as high as 5.3% by the end of the year.

The gloomy outlook was blamed on falling house prices, reduced bank lending, turmoil in the financial markets and higher oil prices.

just read that @ http://www.1stheadlines.com/index.htm

What timing.


27 posted on 02/20/2008 8:55:57 PM PST by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: TomasUSMC

px or gtfo!11!1!1!


28 posted on 02/20/2008 8:56:11 PM PST by B-Chan (Catholic. Monarchist. Texan. Any questions?)
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To: B-Chan

px or gtfo!11!1!1!

?


29 posted on 02/20/2008 9:09:50 PM PST by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: rbg81

The maintenance cost of such a website is minimal.


30 posted on 02/20/2008 9:10:53 PM PST by chopperman
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To: TomasUSMC

It’s a joke. It’s what the kids say on the Internet when they don’t believe you. “Px or gtfo” means “post photographic proof, or get the ____ off (the message board, etc.)”.


31 posted on 02/20/2008 9:18:21 PM PST by B-Chan (Catholic. Monarchist. Texan. Any questions?)
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To: B-Chan

It’s garbage. A person could learn much more by attending Economics 101 and learn about the iron law of supply and demand. Buy tinfoil futures though, just in case.


32 posted on 02/20/2008 9:32:21 PM PST by RichardW
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To: RichardW

“Buy tinfoil... “

My wife just bought a case last weekend at Sam’s so we are okay for a while.


33 posted on 02/20/2008 10:26:57 PM PST by JSteff ( This election is about the 4 or 5 Supreme Court Justices who will retire . Vote Accordingly!)
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To: Ken522

I was hoping September 2009, because I’d like to make it to 50 before the end comes.


34 posted on 02/20/2008 11:09:57 PM PST by CharlesWayneCT
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To: B-Chan

Sounds like Art Bell wrote this story.


35 posted on 02/20/2008 11:47:04 PM PST by Azzurri
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To: Jack Black

It seems to me that Robert Prechter was screaming the doom-and-gloom scenario when the DOW was at 1000 around 1983 or ‘84. He advocated selling the common stock and I believe he recommended gold.

If you listened to his financial advice you were financially ruined. We know the DOW crossed the 10,000 mark some eleven or twelve years later, and the value of gold collapsed.


36 posted on 02/21/2008 3:33:23 AM PST by AdvisorB (Baraq is the Arabic name for the winged horse that took mohammed to paradise from the DomeoftheRock)
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To: B-Chan

This is true... even if he were collecting a bundle of sticks.


37 posted on 02/21/2008 4:26:31 AM PST by GlennBeck08
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To: GlennBeck08

bookmark


38 posted on 02/21/2008 4:31:43 AM PST by REDWOOD99
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To: B-Chan

Looks bad. After the market falls to $1, my house is assessed at 25¢ and gold is selling at 5¢ per barrel, we’ll all be digging for grubs with a stick on October 1.


39 posted on 02/21/2008 5:56:35 AM PST by sergeantdave (Governments hate armed citizens more than armed criminals)
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To: Ken522
So now these here folks are saying the world’s coming to an end in SEPT 08 - just in time!

Good timing as it would spare us an Obama administration.

Of course I can see the headlines now from the NY Times "9/2008 World Ends, Bush's Fault"

40 posted on 02/21/2008 6:06:05 AM PST by NeoCaveman (El Conservo Tribe, tribal name "Avoids Fort Marcy Park")
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To: B-Chan

Oh my god not the DREADED GLOBAL ECONOMIC SPIRAL!!!!!! We’re DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!!! (agh,gack, splutter) Hand me the razor blades please, because it’s obviously hopeless. And I just put some money into Chia Pet futures. Darn the bad luck.


41 posted on 02/21/2008 6:31:01 AM PST by driftless2
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To: B-Chan

I’m learning lol.


42 posted on 02/21/2008 10:58:57 AM PST by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: B-Chan

Stock up on food and buy some ammo—it’s Y2K all over again.


43 posted on 02/21/2008 11:43:21 PM PST by beaversmom
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To: beaversmom

Ping,

I thought I’d ping this up. They had to get it right on one of their guesses. Seems accurate from a Feb date. What do you think?


44 posted on 09/29/2008 1:16:59 PM PDT by GodBlesBush
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To: B-Chan

bump..........


45 posted on 10/03/2008 9:28:14 PM PDT by marshmallow
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