How did they know who would win?
Since they knew there were only 4 nominees for short documentary, they knew the chances were 50-50 it would be the same-sex film that won or Sari's Mother, a film about an Iraqi kid suffering from AIDS who can't get treatment because the American soldiers destroyed the healthcare system.
Or as the Oscar's website summarizes it: "On a farm in central Iraq, a mother struggles to care for her ten-year-old son, Sari, who is dying of AIDS. As the boy's condition worsens, his mother must deal with a health care system that has fallen into chaos under the American occupation."
The pigs of Hollywood know exactly what they are doing: Don't be a sap.