Posted on 02/25/2008 1:44:53 PM PST by K-oneTexas
McCain's Fate Rests Upon A New Gang of 14 by Martha Zoller
With Senator John McCain becoming apparent winner of the Republican nomination for President, we should begin looking at the electoral map shaping up for the November general election.
Remember McCain's "Gang of 14," that loose group of 14 "swing" Senators of varying political stripes put together by McCain to break the deadlock on President Bush's judicial nominees? The Gang enabled Justices Alito and Roberts to be confirmed to the Supreme Court, but also abandoned of many other good conservatives for other appointments.
Now McCain faces a new “Gang of 14": 14 swing states that will determine our next President. Bush carried 286 electoral votes in 2004, with 270 needed to win. If the Democrats pick up Ohio's 20 Electoral Votes (EVs), Colorado's 9, and Iowa's 7, it results in a GOP net loss of 36 votes, (which is quite possible), with on 250 of the needed 270 going Republican. To reach 271, McCain must offset with 20 "pick-up" Electoral Votes. Wisconsin (10) and Minnesota (10), Oregon (7) and Washington (11) offer the best possibilities.
The states making up the Gang of 14 fall into one of four categories:
GOP STATES NOW TRENDING DEMOCRAT, BUT MCCAIN HOLDS: ARIZONA, formerly Republican, has quickly became more Democrat because of massive immigration. McCain will carry Arizona, his home state.
FLORIDA, America's best-known "target" state now likely stays Republican because of McCain's support for the war in Iraq and his support for Israel. Jewish voters, a large Democrat voting group in Florida, ultimately won't support Barack Obama since he calls for "negotiating" (which is Democrat-ese for "surrender") with an Iranian regime bent on the destruction of Israel.
SIX PREVIOUSLY REPUBLICAN STATES AT RISK TO DEMOCRAT WIN: OHIO is trending Democrat after big-government Republicans lost power. Bush carried it with only 51%. Ohio, which is 12% black, will be the top target for the Democrats this fall.
MISSOURI is consistently one of the closest states. Bush did carry it with 53%.
NEVADA was a reliable GOP state, but trending Democrat. From neighboring Arizona, McCain is in a better position to win here than other Republicans.
COLORADO became a majority Democrat state in 2004 for the first time in 44 years, however it's only 4% black. Bush carried it with 52%.
ARKANSAS has a substantial black population (16%), which might be a real asset to Obama.
VIRGINIA is 20% black and the Dems took over both houses of the legislature and a US Senate in 2006, as well as Governor in 2005.
FOUR PREVIOUS DEMOCRATIC STATES AT RISK TO A GOP WIN:
MINNESOTA has a GOP governor and 2 Republican US Senators, but Democrats control the legislature. The state barely went Democrat for President in 2000 and 2004, when Bush took nearly 48% of the vote.
WASHINGTON STATE, with an economy heavily supported by international trade, could go for McCain on the basis of the protectionist wave sweeping the Democrat national party. The state is only 4% black and has become a new refuge for professionals leaving California. Bush lost here in 2004 with 46%.
OREGON for similar reasons to Washington State, Oregon is a top potential pick-up state for Republicans. This is one to watch. Bush carried 48% here in 2004, and the state is only 2% black. Oregon has become a refuge for many professionals leaving California in droves.
WISCONSIN this state has been trending Republican, and has razor-thin margins of victory. Kerry won 49.9% to Bush's 49.4% (11,000 votes). The Governor is a Republican, and the state is only 6% black. While Obama's state of Illinois does border Wisconsin, McCain has an odd political card to play because of his high profile success with McCain-Feingold (Feingold is from Wisconsin).
THREE SWING STATES:
NEW HAMPSHIRE is trending Democrat as Massachusetts residents flee. NH went for Bush in 2000, but Kerry in 2004 (it borders MASS). GOP US Senator John Sununu is currently behind in re-election polls.
IOWA gave Obama's campaign life. The state has substantial union activity, though is only 2.5% black. Gore won in 2000, but Bush won in 2004 with 50.1%.
NEW MEXICO borders Arizona. With heavy growth of Hispanic voters, but only 2.5% black, NM went for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004. Leans McCain.
It’s all about demographics in absence of a movement and getting to the magic number of 271 Electoral Votes.
Ms. Zoller is a political analyst and conservative talk show host for WDUN AM 550 in Gainesville, Georgia. She is one of the Talkers Magazine “Heavy Hundred” Talk Shows in America. She can be heard on Rightalk Radio and seen regularly on cable news. She is the author of “Indivisible: Uniting Values for a Divided America.” You may contact her through www.marthazoller.com.
Amy Klobuchar is a Republican?
Juan McCain is a Republican? This article is a joke.
the governor of WI is very much not a R also...
I’m 99% sure the ‘Rats will win OH in November. Too many jobs lost from companies going to Mexico and China. McCain is an unabashed “free” trader. Right or wrong, that is a losing message here. We paid the price for it in ‘06 and will again in ‘08.
I don’t know that the percent of the electorate that is black is important. 90% of blacks vote Democrat in elections anyway and the Democrats have had good get out the vote operations in black communities for many years. There is not much room for growth in that group...and it is probably more than offset by the number of Democrat voters who will not vote for a black man.
Quite the opposite.
Who can tell these days?
McCain will likely win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Arkansas will not be in play with Obama. Ohio and Missouri lean McCain. McCain polls very well against Obama in Massachusetts as well, so that state is in play on his side. Connecticut may be in play with Lieberman making a big puch there.
There are other complications in some of the traditionally red states, along with some questions in the Hillary blue states. This could be a very non-typical election. That's good for everyone in the long run, though the next 4 years is a disaster in the short run no matter who wins.
It doesn’t really matter what the polls look like today. There is plenty of time for a lot of shifting.
Fortunately for us, Obama is not well known yet. He will be.
Yes he will. The clintoon machine will see to it. The 'toons are in this thing to win no matter the cost. obamassiah is a light weight against the clintoons.
The real mud will fly starting in a few days. Bet on it.
You’re dreaming on Washington and Oregon, Obama, all the way. This area is so heavily Obama that the Democrats held their caucus in two different middle schools that are only a few blocks apart, while the Republicans met in a small nondenominational church and supported Huckabee and Ron Paul about equally.
You really do not need to add the author’s name in the title by JRochelle
McCain’s VP choice will be very important for electability.
If he goes with Huckabee, he will probably lock out the threat in Arkansas which would be important against either Obama or Clinton but I think that’s about as far as that goes.
If he goes with Romney, he will solidify all the midwestern states like Nevada and Colorado. Probably also help his chances in New Hampshire due to the migrated Massachusetts voters.
He could choose a popular woman or black to bring “diversity” to the ticket, but that will probably be seen as pandering and I doubt it would acquire him much more than empty praise from the media.
On the off chance he chooses someone like Crist, well, that’s not good because that would mean he’s desperate to hold Florida and if he’s in that scenario he’s probably losing the election anyhow.
True. With Crist or Sanford or Pawlenty I don’t believe he could get the help he would need. All three are very regional and really don’t have a national following.
Romney adds nothing McCain needs.
Can this author get ANYTHING right? Dems took over the State Senate in '07. The GOP still controls the House. And Dems won the Gov. seat in 2001 and elected another Dem in 2005.
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