Posted on 02/25/2008 3:06:36 PM PST by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, the Republican Presidential candidate would receive 218 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 320 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of the Republican Presidential candidate winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then the Republican Presidential candidate should get 233.56 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
I can’t see any way that McCain can win.
The bid price is 50.0 and the ask price is 50.5. These average to 50.25.
Thus, the tie goes to the Republican Presidential candidate.
The Democrats don’t even have a prayer in Florida. McCain has a god shot at taking OH, MO, WI, OR, PA, NM, MA.
He can win. It’s not difficult to see how.
Depends on who he faces. If it’s Obama, he loses unless there is a miracle. But if it’s Hillary, that map gets a lot more red.
The traders are assuming an Obama win. (plus, their track record this election isn’t exactly perfect)
For example, in this scenario:
1) McCain will win FL easily.
2) A simple defection of the Catholic vote in two states (WI, PA) gives McCain a 276 EV victory. (Think: Obama’s Born Alive filibuster and opposition to Roberts/Alito.)
It’s quite easy to see really.
“I can’t see any way that McCain can win.”
I can’t see any way that Obama can win.
In that scenario I laid out he could even lose Nevada and still have 271 EVs.
So, as in past election, all the Left has to do is win the states Algore won in 2000, plus FL, and the election is theirs.
Just about right.
The States that they have shown as flipped from RED to BLUE are (on top my head):
FLORIDA
COLORADO
NEX MEXICO
IOWA
OHIO
New Mexico, Iowa and Ohio were “IFFY” anyway, EVEN on a good year.
Florida was comfortable win in last election cycle but 536 vote win before that.
Colorado is bit odd.....they must have increased Mexican presence or gone further left in Denver.
I think unless some drastic changes happen, this would infact be BEST CASE scenario for Republicans.
It could get worse if Hillary wins nomination, as she would flip Arkansas and some other Souther States like Virginia and Arizona.
Nevada could also flip.
I mostly agree, although MA is a bit of a stretch.
McCain is very big on re-training programs. He would emphasize that and also point out that Obama’s spending regime would be reckless for our economy.
I don’t see how Arkansas shows up red.
Yes, it went for GW, but things have changed.
It has a Dem Governor, two Dem US Senators (1 who will probably be re-elected in 08), and 3 of the 4 US Representatives are Dems.
Massachusetts? Are you high? McCain has about as good a chance of winning Massachusetts as Obama has of winning Utah, which is about the same chance I, a conservative Jew, have of becoming Sultan of Arabia.
Are you basing that remark on the Intrade statistics at just less than 9 months before the election?
I don’t know if McCain will beat Obama, but there sure is a lot of time for a lot of things to happen.
Why don’t you just give up now then?
Come on, snap out of it!
Why would the Catholics vote for McCain? They voted for Clinton over Dole. In fact, they were a large part of the difference in that election.
By the time the election rolls around, most of them will believe that neither candidate is pro-life. It worked in TN for Clinton over Dole with no basis in fact.
1) Catholics favor Clinton over Obama.
2) Barack Hussein Obama OR John Sidney McCain
3) Filibustered Born Alive Infant Protection bill
4) Sex-ed for kindergarteners
5) Flip flop on marijuana legalization
6) Roberts/Alito
Post 23 please.
He will beat Obama. I think ppl are buying into the hype...
The guy is going to make more and more gaffs.
McCain will be our next President regardless
I realize that “odds” reflect more information than the polls. BUT ... there’s a lot of subjectivity in odds, and right as of now the Democrats are a bit over-enthusiastic. Come election day, it’s back to one man one vote. Even a vote cast relunctantly for the lesser of two evils counts just as much as a vote cast by Obama-maniacs weeping, feinting and orgasming in the voting booth as they pull down the lever of their heart-throb.
Looking at the polls:
Two just released nationwide polls (Gallup and Rasmussen) show McCain beating both Obama and Clinton.
I will now look at all the state just released state polls of states indicated to be leaning Democrat (other than Ohio, which is in the middle of a hot primary):
A Rasmussen NM poll shows McCain tied with Obama and beating Clinton.
A Morning Call PA poll shows McCain beating both.
A SurveyUSA OR poll shows McCain losing to Obama and beating Clinton.
A Selzer poll IA poll shows McCain losing to Obama and beating Clinton.
The nationwide polls and the majority of the state polls show McCain winning nationwide and in a lot of states that are supposed to be leaning Democrat.
Remember: Odinga of Kenya, Ortega of Nicaragua, Chavez of Venezuela and Minister Farrakhan all endorse Obama. What does this tell you?
McCain voted for NAFTA. He’s voted for all the free trade bills, every one. I don’t necessarily have a problem with that, but Ohioans will.
As for McCain pounding Obama on spending, Obama will respond that the Iraq war has cost almost 500 billion so far, and a Nobel Prize winning economist has come out with a study that says the war will ultimately cost about $2 trillion dollars, when long term medical costs for injured vets are factored in. And that’s if we have the bulk of the troops out by 2010. Since almost 60% of Americans currently favor a timetable for withdrawal of troops from Iraq and an equal number believe the war was a mistake in the first place (Gallup this month) that will resonate, especially among the independent voters who are going to decide this race.
Plenty of Freepers thought Bush would blowout John Kerry in 2004 because he was a liberal, haughty, unaccomplished, weak on national defense, a rich woman’s boy toy and a do-nothing Senator. Yet Kerry came within 60,000 votes in Ohio of beating an incumbent President in the middle of a hot war.
My scenario has McCain taking Florida, Wisc., and Pennsylvania (even if he loses NV) to win the election. All about the Catholic vote which Obama can’t even win against Hillary.
Also see post 28.
OH, NO!! President Nader? ;-)
Hillary pulling off the nomination through dirty trickery (leaving the Obama people p!$$ed off and unwilling to show up for her in the general) is pretty much the only shot McCain has.
Give victory a chance. We can win and the scenario I have outlined now three times on this thread provides for McCain winning the election without Ohio. Nevertheless I believe he will likely win Ohio.
BTW Bush would’ve had a blowout if the perception wasn’t that Iraq was already a mixed bag at that point.
Obama and his far left position are NOT well known. They WILL be by November. We can and will win. Stick around.
Your scenarios are wishful thinking on steroids. Plenty of Catholics, especially in blue states, consider the war a more important moral issue than abortion. From the Catholic News Service article, “End of the Catholic Vote” about the 2004 election:
“Some preliminary data of a poll done by Zogby International for Pax Christi USA asked people which moral issue most influenced their vote. Nationally, the largest number said the war in Iraq, at 42 percent of respondents overall and 41percent of Catholic respondents. “Other” was the next most-chosen category nationally, followed by abortion, named by 12.8 percent overall and 17.2 percent of Catholics.”
PA has been getting Bluer and Bluer.....just like NJ. It used to be Republican, but now NJ has stated to act like Massachusettes.
Still, in heart of its heart PA is Conservative. Therein lies the problem - CONSERVATIVE.
With McCain, you have to worry even about the Deep South.....much less carrying PA.
However, you are correct. IF Catholic Vote really become an issue, then if Mac can HOLD Florida and Flip Pennsylvania, then Ohio, Iowa and New Mexico become expendable.
However, Nevada, Virginia, Tenessee, Arkansas, Colorado MUST HOLD too.
McCain’s personal history is not well known. It will be known by November. He also has a 25 year voting record for the MSM to selectively dissect. I’m sure there’s something in there for EVERYBODY to hate.
Catholics will not vote for Barack Obama over McCain. Even with all his furor he can’t whip them up against Hillary. They will go for McCain.
The cable networks have been speculating that Obama will pick General Zinni for Veep in a play to take Virginia. I personally think it will either be Evan Bayh in a play for Indiana, or Bill Richardson to win over hispanics.
Two consecutive polls now show McCain ahead of Obama in PA.
And no you don’t have to worry about the deep South. They are not idiots. In Alabama for example McCain has a 24 point lead over Obama.
Virginia, Tennessee, and Arkansas will go GOP. If McCain flips Wisconsin and PA, he can lose Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.
McCain will easily carry Florida.
1) Won’t drive them to vote for McCain over Obama.
2) By the time the MSM is done the latter name will be more reviled than the former.
3) Voted for stem cell research. Formed the Gangrene of 14 that stimied the attempt to put pro-life friendly judges in place. Took on a large pro-life group over McCain-Feingold.
4) You might have him on that one.
5) Flip-flops on border, Bush tax cuts, many, many more.
6) Dissed Alito as too extreme and only voted for him out of fear of what it would do to his impending campaign.
Barack Obama / Evan Bayh
Weirdness. It won’t play. Don’t underestimate the simple value of sound.
Richardson won’t play either. That’s two minorities on a ticket.
I think you overestimate the voting public. His biggest threat may well be his wife. I’ve read her thesis. She ain’t that bright.
I base my remark by going state by state and trying to figure out how McCain wins it. Use the last two elections. Florida is now more Democratic than it was in 2000 and Ohio is more Democratic than it was in 2004. Red states are now outnumbered in Electoral votes by the blue states.
General Zinni was attacked as anti-semite so Obama (who in my view would NOT get the nomination) if he does get to pick, will stay far away from hot potato like that.
I think for Dems the choice is SIMPLE and they should have absolutely NO trouble picking Evan Bayh.
America has come far, but not ready for Black Mexican Ticket. Latinos like any other Minority are going to go heavily Democratic anyway.
Evan Bayh in my view is no brainer because he has relatively clean slate, he would look good to White Women, he doesn’t come across as an a$$ and has some descency and humility about him, but MOST IMPORTANTLY Indiana has SOFT SPOT for Bayh family. So much so that when Even Bayh annouced he was going to run, the LONG TIME Republican, simply chose to retire.
Flipping Indiana would be HUGE for Dems. Essentially with Bayh on Ticket, at worst if they JUST HOLD the Blue States from last Election (don’t think Pubs are in any position to flip any of them anyway), they can flip Indiana and be home-free.
JMO.
I never said every Democrat that voted for Hillary over Obama will go to McCain. But SOME will.
Did Obama support pro-life judges? Did Obama vote for Alito?
What you call a flip flop on the border McCain would say no, it’s that we are securing the border first and seperately. On the tax cuts he would say he did oppose them but doesn’t also support a tax increase. Alito? Nonsense, he voted for him and at CPAC said he supports judges like Roberts and Alito.
Your list sounds like more reasons why you won’t vote for McCain than the typical Catholic.
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