Posted on 02/25/2008 3:49:50 PM PST by blam
Has An Ocean Circulation Collapse Been Triggered?
Geoscientists warn that there can be a considerable delay between the triggering of a collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the actual collapse. (Credit: iStockphoto/Emmanuelle Combaud)
ScienceDaily (Feb. 25, 2008) — Predictions that the 21st century is safe from major circulation changes in the North Atlantic Ocean may not be as comforting as they seem, according to a Penn State researcher.
"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is very unlikely that the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) will collapse in the 21st century. They predict a probability of less then 10 percent," says Klaus Keller, assistant professor of geosciences. "However, this should not be interpreted as an all clear signal. There can be a considerable delay between the triggering of an MOC collapse and the actual collapse. In a similar way, a person that has just jumped from a cliff may take comfort that pain in the next few seconds is very unlikely, but the outlook over the long term is less rosy."
Keller and his colleagues analyzed a possible threshold response for the MOC. A threshold response occurs when a system reacts in a highly nonlinear and potentially abrupt way. For example, a paddler can tip a canoe quite a bit without getting wet. However, pushing that canoe just a bit further can result in a wet paddler. The impacts of pushing the canoe to the side are negligible until the very last small push triggers the overturning of the canoe in a threshold response.
The MOC may also respond to human-made greenhouse gas emissions in a threshold response. The research projects sizeable impacts on patterns of surface air temperatures and precipitation, fisheries and terrestrial ecosystems if a slowdown or complete collapse of the MOC occurs.
"Currently, MOC projections are deeply uncertain. This uncertainty puts a large value on observation systems that could deliver an actionable early warning of an MOC collapse," Keller said February 17 at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Boston. "The problem is that information that arrives after the threshold response has been triggered is only of very limited use. For example, warning a person in a canoe about an approaching waterfall can be useful before the waterfall, but is not really useful after the canoe went over the waterfall.
"The problem with the potential MOC collapse is that the signs of an approaching threshold response are very subtle to detect. The noise is large and picking out the signal from the noise is non trivial," he adds.
"There is tantalizing evidence for a recent MOC slow down. However, this is not an open-and-shut case," Keller continues.
The researchers analyzed how they could improve MOC observation systems to result in more skillful MOC projections. For example, optimizing the locations of the observation system can considerably improve the projections.
Improved MOC projections can enable improved climate policies and can have economic value. Keller and colleagues show that investments into an MOC observation system that would provide an early warning of an approaching MOC collapse would likely pass a cost benefit test.
The National Science Foundation and the U.S. EPA supported this work.
Adapted from materials provided by Penn State.
Sort of a long winded way to say "lag."
So far, so good...
So far, so good...
So far, so good...
So far, so good...
So far, so good...
So far, so good...
So far, SPLAT!!
Stopped the suspension of disbelief at this point.
That would be pretty bad. Especially as more people are moving to coastal urban areas.
According to Robert Toggweiler of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at Princeton University and Joellen Russell, assistant professor of biogeochemical dynamics at the University of Arizona -- two prominent climate modellers -- the computer models that show polar ice-melt cooling the oceans, stopping the circulation of warm equatorial water to northern latitudes and triggering another Ice Age (a la the movie The Day After Tomorrow) are all wrong.
"We missed what was right in front of our eyes," says Prof. Russell. It's not ice melt but rather wind circulation that drives ocean currents northward from the tropics. Climate models until now have not properly accounted for the wind's effects on ocean circulation, so researchers have compensated by over-emphasizing the role of manmade warming on polar ice melt.
But when Profs. Toggweiler and Russell rejigged their model to include the 40-year cycle of winds away from the equator (then back towards it again), the role of ocean currents bringing warm southern waters to the north was obvious in the current Arctic warming.
---------------------------- This implies that the world needs a climate policy. Why hadn't I seen that before? To steal the civil and economic liberties of Asians and Europeans is a trifle---the Great Game is to lull, cajole, and finally stampede us in the USA into submitting to total govt control of the economy.
in other words, there’s no danger of anything happening, but they need power to change our way of living anyway.
They are still trying for one-in-a-row.
‘Threshhold response,’ i.e. the Algore/James Hansen ‘tipping point,’ a piece of buzzword propaganda designed to create in the minds of the masses the idea that global warming might lead to sudden rapid changes, so as to justify the governments of the world making sudden and rapid moves to grab and control everything in a socialist takeover.
It’s nothing but a pretense to allow them to do what they’ve wanted to do for decades.
And that is the money quote. Give us the money taxpayers....
Good observation. I think you're correct.
I stopped reading right there.
This has undoubtedly been released as a prelude to pooh-poohing the recent news that winds are likely to have more influence than CO2 gasses on Arctic ice formation and melt cycles.
By suggesting that there is a precarious tipping point and that the warning signs are hidden in the noise, the next step is to declare that those who consider wind to be the stronger are but looking at the noise.
Should be out on the press as soon as the first iceberg is seen in the spring.
Another example (based on almost 30 years professional experience dealing with numerous 'environmentalists' who predicted various calamities, some of which were quite literally impossible):
A so-called 'environmental activist' can stretch the truth quite a bit without being called a liar. However, stretching the truth just a bit further can result in the activist "jumping the shark."
These boys have 'cried wolf' way too many times...
I'm guessing this will require more gubmint funds?
Don’t mock the MOC.
The ocean is falling!
-- Chicken Little of the Sea
Been waiting for this “news.” Such a collapse would lead to massive cooling ala a mini ice age. AGW nuts have been claiming that AGW could cause such an inversion in the future, leading to a cold shift. Hence their new term “climate change.” Now that it is clear the solar cycles are going to cause cooling, they will try to shift the time frame to protect their AGW cult (and funding)...
“However, pushing that canoe just a bit further can result in a wet paddler.”
And for a fee, the government will assure you the canoe won’t be tipped ‘enough’ to get you wet.
In the event the canoe tips, the government will certify that the water isn’t really wet.
Blah blah blah blah, blah greenhouse blah blah blah blah warming blah blah blah blah blah climate change blah blah blah blah blah.
Someday scientists will look back at this period in history and the constant shrill of "global warming" and wonder how we ever functioned in life. That we were just one step above leeches and bloodletting.
“Since it is now cooling, not getting warmer, we have to find a new crisis.”
And someday the earth’s polarity is going to swap again. It’s done it several times before. When it does all hell will break loose for a while. Face it. We’re doomed. I think I’ll go get a beer.
Isn’t this somewhat related to the scenario painted in the movie “The Day After Tomorrow”?
You know, Jedi, I think you're on to something here. The left is hysterical about global warming because America's two Left Coasts would be inundated, leaving the country overwhelmingly conservative as leftists are washed out to sea by the millions while the right stays high and dry in flyover country.
November 20, 2006
False Alarm
Filed under: Climate Changes, Gulf Stream —
“False Alarm: Atlantic Conveyor Belt Hasn’t Slowed Down After All” is the title of a “News of the Week” piece in this week’s (November 17, 2006) Science magazine by science writer Richard Kerr (for those with a subscription, you can view the whole story, here).
Kerr’s piece starts off with the line “A closer look at the Atlantic Ocean’s currents has confirmed what many oceanographers suspected all along: There’s no sign that the ocean’s heat-laden ‘conveyor’ is slowing.”
The rest of the story here
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2006/11/20/false-alarm/#more-193
the concern for such a change began with a change thought to be triggered by this change - the gulf stream would no longer warm the north atlantic
which, was believed to be why western parts of northern europe, like england, have balmy winters
that is now known to be a myth
england has balmy winters for the same reason washington and oregon have balmy winters
mid-continental mountain ranges west of the pacific - urals, and west of the atlantic - rockies - alter the air flows, west to east, causing the delivery of warmer air from more southerly regions to the western u.s. and european shores in the winter - not the gulf stream
I swear I have NEVER driven my carbon belching SUV in the ocean, not even once!! Ergo, it must be Bush’s fault.
When we observe that the horizontal pressure gradient force is zero or near zero maybe. But then there are the wind driven currents.
To paraphrase the great Professor Henry Stommel, “ When the disparity between supposed future conditions and observed present conditions become as great as envisaged in certain theories and computer models, the unhappy physical oceanographer can make no constructive comment.”
Excuse me while I ROTFL!
Thank you very much for that. I look forward to reading that as soon as I have dispatched an errand.
Oh mother of mercy we’re all gonna die.
Aside from making some Boy Scout compasses useless it won't do much at all.
It kind of gets your attention when his data show that CO2 at 400 ppm is child’s play and how we need to drive it up to 1,000 ppm ASAP to feed ourselves but will not be able to get there.
So sad that idiots ran the science for so long...
I am not a scientist or the smartest guy in the trailer park, but wouldnt the solar radiation affect us? I dont believe the polarity swap will happen overnight and all will be fine afterwards.
Did I forget the sarcasm tag?
Your tax dollars at work.
Global Warming Theory: If global temperatures rise 5 degrees, the effect of all the melting Arctic ice could cause a “catastrophic collapse” of ocean currents, resulting in the temperature of Europe plunging... 5 degrees.
All that info and no indication of what the consequences would be.
Do you have any info on the consequences, cogitator?
Critic cites stats -- Earth cooling down, not warming up
Global warming on Free Republic
There’s also density differences due to temperature and salinity. Those help drive the currents, also. It may slow down sometimes, but it isn’t going to stop.
This is the way these people actually think. BBBWWAHAHAHHAAH!!!
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