Posted on 03/02/2008 3:47:26 AM PST by Las Vegas Dave
Washington, D.C. (February 29, 2008) -- Sony, the leading supporter of Blu-ray, has said the new high-def disc will replace the standard-def DVD in the next several years.
Is that possible? After all, standard-def DVD players are in nearly every American home and many people have built up impressive collections of DVD film libraries.
However, now that Toshiba has pulled the plug on HD DVD, it's my view that Blu-ray has an opportunity to become the leading home video format.
So, how can Blu-ray replace the DVD? Here are five steps:
1. Lower Player Prices to Under $200 Blu-ray players now start at $399, which is $300 more than many standard-def DVD players. That's way too high. By the 2008 holiday season, Blu-ray players have to be under $200, preferably around $149. That might require the Blu-ray manufacturers to shave some profits, but it's necessary to attract the masses.
2. Release Some Movies In Blu-ray Only At some point, the studios will have to start releasing some titles only in Blu-ray. This will encourage people to buy Blu-ray players to see their favorite new releases. Sony, which has its own studio, would be the logical one to begin, perhaps releasing a few movies this holiday season in Blu-only. Then, in 2009, a few other studios could join in.
We're not talking about a bunch of titles going Blu-only in the next year; perhaps 5-10 at the most. But the studios need to start sending a message to consumers that they will eventually need to upgrade to the new format.
3. Target the HD DVD Owners In a commentary posted here yesterday, I stressed how important it is that Sony reach out to the nearly one million people who have HD DVD players by offering discounts on Blu-ray players. With Toshiba exiting the HD DVD business, this audience is up for grabs. It could become disillusioned with the high-def disc and fall back to standard-def DVDs (and maybe digital downloads.) Or it could decide to embrace Blu and start buying new players and discs. If they choose the latter, it would lead to more positive word of mouth about the high-def disc, which would help attract more customers. The HD DVD audience is an important one because it has already purchased a high-def player; Blu supporters should not alienate them.
4. Bundle Blu-ray Players With HDTVs Sony and Sharp have already done this with some sets, but there needs to be an accelerated bundling program from the manufactures and retailers. Every time someone shops for a high-def set, he/she should be encouraged (and given an incentive) to buy a Blu-ray player. This is the ideal time to persuade high-def enthusiasts to switch to Blu-ray.
5. Promote the 'Best' Picture Blu-ray companies have heavily promoted the format's exceptional picture quality. However, they need to start saying that the picture is better than anything else on the market -- better than cable, satellite, telcos, you name it. (And it is) It's not enough to just say it has a great picture; consumers need to hear that it's the best picture. People are more likely to buy a product if it's regarded as the best available. (Just look at the boom in 1080p set sales.)
Conclusion The transition from DVD to Blu won't be easy and it will require even more financial sacrifice from Blu supporters such as Sony which are still reeling from money spent in the format war against HD DVD. But I believe that they will be willing to make that investment, having come all this way after the HD DVD battle.
The pinged subjects will be those of HDTV technology, satellite/cable HD, OTA (over the air with various roof top and indoor antennas) HD reception. Broadcast specials, Blu-ray/HD-DVD, and any and all subjects relating to HD.
Las Vegas Dave
Sony & Toshiba Should Aid HD DVD Owners
HD DVD’s exit will leave a bad taste in the mouths of millions.
By Swanni
Washington, D.C. (February 28, 2008) — Toshiba has a moral responsibility to provide either a discount or refund for the nearly one million people who now own HD DVD players (standalone and XBox players.)
Toshiba, the leading company behind the HD DVD format, announced last week that it would exit the high-def disc business by the end of March, ceding victory to rival Blu-ray.
The decision means that current HD DVD players will soon be nearly obsolete; yes, they will still ‘upconvert’ standard-def DVDs, but the studios will stop releasing titles in the HD DVD format in the coming weeks.
Asked at a press conference last week about the current HD DVD audience, Toshiba officials basically shrugged their shoulders and said buyers knew what they were getting into — a high-def format war that would likely produce a loser.
However, that is unacceptable. HD DVD owners committed their hard earned dollars on a brand new technology, giving Toshiba an opportunity to succeed in the war. But Toshiba seems too broken up with its own misfortune to consider the plight of their customers.
At the least, Toshiba should offer HD DVD owners discounts on related Toshiba products, such as high-def sets.
Likewise, Sony, the company behind Blu-ray, has a responsibility here as well because its participation prolonged the format war, leading to more people buying HD DVD players.
In my view, Sony should offer HD DVD owners a discount on Blu-ray players. This would not only be the right thing to do — but it would keep a sizable number of high-def disc enthusiasts happy.
It would also send a signal to consumers that investing in a unproven technology is a shared risk, that people will not be left holding the bag.
If Toshiba and Sony fail to act, consumers may think twice — or three times — the next time they’re asked to buy a new electronics product.
Well, I have an HD-DVD. I did get it cheap (98 bucks at Wal-Mart). It up-verts nicely and I have about dozen HD-DVD movies.
It would be nice for Toshiba to allow a trade in, but I don’t expect it.
What a bunch of whiny sniveling.
Toshiba offers a product. The product fails. Yet, somehow, Toshiba is “morally responsible” to reimburse everyone who bought into the failed format. Yeah, right.
And I want $6.99 for every phonograph album I ever bought, too.
There's been a rumor for the past week that they'll drop it down to the price of regular DVDs.
Unlikely because it's too simple and probably cheaper than the $400 million Sony paid Warner Bros. to go Blu.
Well I won't be buying Blu Rays till I can get used ones at the prices I buy Used DVDs now, further I've started to put some of our fav Movies on HD so we can just select and watch like we do our Music.
I hope the Blu Ray makers can come up with an acceptable way to place them on HDs (and still maintain their Digital Rights) Cause I can see now its the way to go being Hard Drives are getting so cheap.
The article fails to mention DRM. For BD to replace DVD, all of the controlling groups need to mitigate the requirements for DRM considerably.
There are still some BluRay players that will not allow play back of BD-R discs, so if you author and burn your own home movie to a BD-R, you won’t be abel to play it back on your player. If the studios had their way, I suspect NO players would allow playback without AACS copy protection (DRM, in this case).
And if you are a small video production company or a corporation with an in-house video department, the cost of the AACS licensing and key in order to have your BluRay title replicated, can be nearly $5,000 just for one title, and is required even if you do not need or want AACS protection on your disc. That’s because a couple of the larger studios demanded that requirement before they would go BluRay exclusively.
Serious investment on the part of consumers as well. as Blu-Ray HD boxes are about $600 vs $150 to $200 for HD-DVD.
Persobally, I can live without HD. DirecTV, wants to charge some $230 for you to *lease* one of their HD recievers, as well as a monthly fee.
It al,l just comes across as one huge rip-off.
“Likewise, Sony, the company behind Blu-ray, has a responsibility here as well because its participation prolonged the format war, leading to more people buying HD DVD players.”
I have two Toshiba HD-A2’s and the Xbox HD DVD player. It would be nice if Toshiba would at least offer some discount on future players (assuming they ever make a blu-ray player), but I certainly don’t feel they owe it to me. And the quoted statement above is possibly the dumbest thing ever said. A competitor being held to blame for the failure of HD DVD? Spare me!
Isn’t there a rumor about Blu Ray being replaced with a computer file format?
Why can’t these movies be high quality like my computer plays but on my plasma?
No, not really. I’m finding $400 and $300 blu-ray boxes. Found a $190 blu-ray computer drive.
Exactly. I want a refund for my old slide rules that are gathering dust. A free new fuel injected motorcycle for each of the ones I have with carburetors would be good too.
“I can live without HD”
Who needs HD or Blu pictures if you don’t have HD eyes anymore?
I totally agree.
Yawn. My son bought a big HDTV. It’s pretty nice and all, but not that much nicer that I’m going to throw away my perfectly good TV. Blu-ray is nicer too, but not nice enough to spend hundreds on new equipment and I’m definitely not paying more than $10-12 for a movie. Ferget it.
I’ll bet the attempt to get consumers to change will be about as effective as the attempt to get them to change to HDTV broadcasts. As I recall the Fed said that we were all supposed to be changed over several years ago. LOL!
Bottom line: I don’t need any reason to spend more time sitting in front of a TV set. Weather’s getting better so soon it’ll be gathering dust anyhow.
“And I want $6.99 for every phonograph album I ever bought, too.”
Yeah, and I want to be paid for all the old 33’s(?) and 45’s I have, as well as the Beta Max, VHS, 8track and cassette players and tapes. That ought to cover the price of the Blu-Ray.
I still have my Sony Betamax 600 from the early 80s. Works great with the 50 tapes I packed away, before they became obsolete. And the Sony VHS still works, too. I’m all set for the next 15-20yrs!
The author simply doesn’t understand the whole concept of “Economy of Scale.”
#1 and #3 aren’t necessary: They’ll occur in their own time, though maybe not as quickly as he whines.
The first, reducing the price, will happen, and in fact, already has happened. Dramatically. And the price will continue to come down. Anybody remember how expensive VCRs were when they came out? Anybody remember how expensive cell phones were when they came out? Calculators? Computers? How about DVD players? As more and more generations of electronic devices are designed and shipped, each generation becomes less and less expensive.
And this is the reason that # 3 simply isn’t necessary. Though it might be a nice promo.
Mark
You’re right. I wouldn’t even bother with a new Blu Ray or any other DVD as it is inevitable that they will all be replaced by either a solid state disc player or just a humongous hard drive that you download and save movies to. (ref. ipod)
Apple TV now offers HD movie rentals (provided you have a high-speed internet connection) and plays back, via HDMI, on a LCD or plasma TV.
High definition content on DVD is still very limited.
You can’t even get Lord of the Rings on either format... One that should absolutely be available in HD.
So if they want me to buy more HD discs (Blue Ray/HD-DVD) there’s going to have to get substantially more content to choose from.
I really loved how Terminator 1 and 2 were only on Blue Ray and Terminator 3 only on HD-DVD...
What a mess...
Must of been a crappy “big HDTV” or a crappy video source...
With a good source and a good display HD is dramatically better than regular TV. No going back for me.
I’m not buying anything that records accept an new computer, mines comming up on 8 years old and then what ever massive hard drives needed to store movies, I figure I’ll download what I need like mp3’s.
There’s no end to that line of reasoning. If you wait until things stop changing you will wait forever..
No, the change over is and has always been scheduled for 2009-2010. If you don’t by an adapter box for your old set by then, you will be watching snow.
Do you think they can force me to spend the money? They have to release something I want to see, first.
Normally I would agree with you but in this case I think we are talking about a matter of months not years. I haven't rented a disc in over a year because I have on-demand and it isn't much more of a leap to just save that on a hard drive (in fact I have a DVR too, it just needs to be a lot bigger to store a movie library.
If Microsoft had any brains they would jump on this and beat Apple / Sony to the punch instead of coming out with me-too Zunes etc...
You can already get laptops with solid state hard drives since they save on battery power, so to answer your question, yes I probably won't buy a new computer until it comes with a solid state drive.
Actually, the original law had the change-over happening in 2001. The transmitters and HDTVs were too expensive, though, and nearly all stations and consumers just ignored it, so the drop-dead date has been changed several times.
The same thing happened when Clowngress mandated that Interstate speed limit signs were to change to kph, instead of mph. Everyone simply ignored that law, as well.
“I’ll bet the attempt to get consumers to change will be about as effective as the attempt to get them to change to HDTV broadcasts. As I recall the Fed said that we were all supposed to be changed over several years ago. LOL!”
I hope you are willing to pay for cable because anolog TV is being shut down in less than one year. Your perfectly good TV will no longer work with an antenna next year.
I had an old RCA Victrola, with a hand-crank turntable, that played the old platters that were about a quarter inch thick. I bet I could have traded that for a new Blu-Ray Player ... if only I'd kept it.
How much will a Blu-Ray disc burner cost for our computers, because that is the road we are now forced down.
Why it won’t happen:
To begin with, for most people the difference between HD and DVD is marginal, for a combination of reasons. First is the quality of the movie itself, that with few exceptions, doesn’t “deserve” HD quality. Second is that a lot of people don’t set their HD TVs up properly, or their HD TV isn’t very good quality, so they see HD movies about the same quality as DVD.
Third is that HD disks are inherently expensive, and may soon be replaced with flash chips. They hold about 58Gb of data, and the newest chips out there, though still expensive, hold 64Gb. Within five years, the chips will probably cost less than the disks.
Now let’s examine the author’s reasons:
1. Lower Player Prices to Under $200
I don’t know where the author buys his DVD players at $100, but I have purchased several for $30. They are cheap enough to be expendable, and are almost all backwards compatible to VCD/SVCD/and even DivX .avi files.
2. Release Some Movies In Blu-ray Only
Blu-ray has already been compromised by pirates. This means their HD movies are reduced to DVD sizes and quality. If they try Blu-ray only releases, it will be as futile as the record industry refusing to release songs in the .mp3 format.
3. Target the HD DVD Owners
Which is like the owner of a bowling alley pinboy training school trying to pitch to buggy whip manufacturers.
4. Bundle Blu-ray Players With HDTVs
Which will raise the price in a very competitive market. That isn’t going to happen.
5. Promote the ‘Best’ Picture.
Even with a properly tuned HD TV, half of people’s visual acuity is, by definition, below average. This is similar to why only a few people prefer vinyl records over digital music—most people can’t tell the difference because their hearing isn’t that acute.
Most adults today grew up with TVs that were 525-line NTSC quality, and VHS tape quality content. The jump from that to DVD quality digital is enormous. But from DVD to HD is just not enough for most people.
And that is the great secret: They are buying enormous HD TVs, NOT for the HD, but because they are big screen. Because big screen TVs used to be poor quality, seeing them even at DVD quality, and a reasonable price, is enough for people to want to make the switch.
HD? Meh. Whatever. Give me a screen that is measured in feet, not inches, and reasonably good quality, and you have made the sale.
The concept that everyone should be indemnified against every bad decision they have ever made or ever possibly could make has really taken hold in our culture. It's why the Democrats are getting stronger among formerly independent voters.
LLS
LLS
MS has offered HD movie rentals since before the Apple TV was born.
First it was VHS vs BETA...now this??
Ha! I have basic cable, but with an old format TV. It’ll stay that way until the TV dies or the new ones get cheap enough.
Maybe the Feds could just ban old format TVs.
If you like HDDVD, UK, French, and soon German import versions of Terminator 2 are available from various vendors. The German one is said to be the ultimate. And of course, HDDVDs are region-free, so they will play just fine on your HDDVD player!
I for one, submitted the online request for the digital TV converter coupons from the FCC. It’s been 8 weeks now and nothing has come in the mail.
Has anyone else received the $40 coupon?
Or is this just example number 7325 of our government time wasters?
I for one, submitted the online request for the digital TV converter coupons from the FCC. It’s been 8 weeks now and nothing has come in the mail.
Has anyone else received the $40 coupon?
Or is this just example number 7325 of our government time wasters?
In the United States, all full-power [21] television broadcasts will be exclusively digital as of February 17, 2009, by order of the Federal Communications Commission. This deadline was signed into law in early 2006.[22] Furthermore, as of March 1, 2007, all new television sets that can receive signals over-the-air, including pocket-sized portable televisions, must include digital tuners.[23] Currently, most U.S. broadcasters are transmitting their signals in both analog and digital formats; a few are digital-only.
Citing the bandwidth efficiency of digital TV, after the analog switch-off, the FCC will auction off channels 52-69 (the lower half of the 700 MHz band) for other communications traffic,[24] completing the reallocation of broadcast channels 52-69 that began in the late 1990s.
To assist consumers through the conversion, the U.S. government will take requests from households for up to two $40 coupons for digital-to-analog converter boxes[25] beginning January 1, 2008 via a toll free number or a website.[26][27] However, these government coupons are limited to an initial sum of $890 million (22,250,000 coupons) with the option to grow to $1.34 billion (33,500,000 coupons) [28], which is far short of the estimated 112 million households in the United States. [29], although reports indicate 1 in 2 households already has a digital TV.[30]
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