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Time for a new Russia strategy
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/03/03/opinion/edgvosdev.php ^ | March 3, 2008 | Nikolas Gvosdev Published: March 3, 2008

Posted on 03/04/2008 6:49:38 AM PST by RusIvan

The election of Dmitry Medvedev as Vladimir Putin's handpicked successor to be president of Russia provides an opportune moment to initiate a long-overdue review of America's strategy toward Russia.

It should now be clear that there is broad-based support in Russia for the direction in which Putin has taken his country; popular discontent with issues such as corruption has not translated into a desire to overturn the system he has created. Despite the excessive degree to which the Kremlin controlled the election process, there is nothing to suggest that Sunday's results invalidate the popular acquiescence with what Putin has wrought in Russia.

At the same time, Russia has undergone a genuine - if limited - recovery from the collapse of the 1990s. The economy experienced over 8 percent growth in 2007, and the country's gross domestic product - less than $200 billion in 1999 - has surged to reach $1. 3 trillion today. High energy prices have helped, but now oil and gas presently contribute only about 20 percent of Russian's GDP.

What this means is that the United States - itself seeing its own global economic influence wane in recent years - now lacks sufficient leverage to compel Russian acquiescence to its policy preferences, as was most recently witnessed in major differences on the future status of Kosovo. At the same time, a newly self-confident Russia is no longer seeking to join the Euro-Atlantic community at any cost, and thus is no longer willing to adjust its foreign policy priorities accordingly.

(Excerpt) Read more at iht.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; Russia
KEYWORDS: medvedev; putin; russia
If the fundamental assumption in Washington remains that the test of good relations between the United States and Russia is Russian compliance with every U.S. interest, then there can be no effective diplomacy. Very true. I told here same many time.
1 posted on 03/04/2008 6:49:38 AM PST by RusIvan
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To: Tailgunner Joe; NoLibZone; Cicero; TigerLikesRooster; Just mythoughts; Red Badger; Lurker; tlb; ...

ping


2 posted on 03/04/2008 6:53:13 AM PST by RusIvan (ABM can be used to fend off the weakered by first strike reciprocal answer.)
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To: RusIvan

Russia will do whatever is best for Russia. We should do the same............


3 posted on 03/04/2008 6:56:21 AM PST by Red Badger ( We don't have science, but we do have consensus.......)
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To: RusIvan

The Russian Bear is waking after a long winter snooze. It has money, resources, and rekindled ambition. Quidado!


4 posted on 03/04/2008 6:58:54 AM PST by Don Corleone (Leave the gun..take the cannoli)
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To: RusIvan
Russia is a major power. Not a superpower but a major power with its own interests, dictated by the circumstances of its history and its being a multinational state with roots in both Europe and Asia.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

5 posted on 03/04/2008 7:10:05 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: RusIvan
If the fundamental assumption in Washington remains that the test of good relations between the United States and Russia is Russian compliance with every U.S. interest, then there can be no effective diplomacy.

Very true. I told here same many time.

Look around this globe and take note who Putin has bonded and built relationships. How about Putin's plantings with the dictator Chavez... you know our liberals favorite oil guy. Amazing now isn't it that our very own liberals root and toot for a really really rich oil dictator, while they pronounce every point source of oil/energy in this nation as a high altar of worship.

Time will tell just what Putin and his HAND picked successor have in mind for US. Given where we have come in the past few years I am not anticipating Putin has in mind to play nice. I can't help but wonder if this new Russian leader knows he is a tool for the almighty Putin.

6 posted on 03/04/2008 7:28:39 AM PST by Just mythoughts (Isa.3:4 And I will give children to be their princes, and babes shall rule over them.)
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To: RusIvan

Russia has some very fundamental problems. But they have great oil and mineral wealth, and they will make good use of that to forward Putin’s plans.

Of course, Russia should work in its national interests, and so should we. But both of us are a bit confused as to what our national interests are.

The national interest of Russia is to recover their civilization, start building up their population, and stabilize their economy and develop it in directions beyond oil and minerals, while building a defense against the two threats of Islam and China. But Putin prefers to keep the wealth among his KGB supporters and allies, seems unaware of the dangers of the demographic implosion, and wants to spread his Russians too thin as he strives to regain the lost colonies of the Soviet Union.

Similarly, the US doesn’t always seem to understand its own self interests, certainly not in Kosovo to take the example mentioned in this article. And if and when any of the three candidates for president wins the election next November, we are pretty sure to go further in wrong and self-damaging directions. Clinton got us into Kosovo, and hillary, Barrack, or McCain will predictably do even worse as the Islamic threat regroups with our oil dollars, China arms with our trade dollars, and the world economy breaks down.


7 posted on 03/04/2008 7:35:36 AM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Just mythoughts

I tried to argue with my liberal son-in-law last night that if the Dems succeed in destroying Exxon they will be very sorry, because it’s better that Exxon should make profits and build jobs here than that Putin and Chavez should control the oil market, as they are already proceeding to do anyway. Exxon is no longer even one of the bigger players.

But all the liberals can see is the “obscene profits” of Exxon.


8 posted on 03/04/2008 7:37:52 AM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Cicero
I tried to argue with my liberal son-in-law last night that if the Dems succeed in destroying Exxon they will be very sorry, because it’s better that Exxon should make profits and build jobs here than that Putin and Chavez should control the oil market, as they are already proceeding to do anyway. Exxon is no longer even one of the bigger players. But all the liberals can see is the “obscene profits” of Exxon.

I would love to see somebody run an ad about who it is that actually makes the most profit off a gallon of gas. Government, local to the feds are the ones who collect the first and most profit.

9 posted on 03/04/2008 7:46:45 AM PST by Just mythoughts (Isa.3:4 And I will give children to be their princes, and babes shall rule over them.)
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To: Cicero

And if and when any of the three candidates for president wins the election next November, we are pretty sure to go further in wrong and self-damaging directions. Clinton got us into Kosovo, and hillary, Barrack, or McCain will predictably do even worse as the Islamic threat regroups with our oil dollars, China arms with our trade dollars, and the world economy breaks down.==

You sounds very pessimistic. America will doom by your own hands?

Can you remember WHO ever brought you to such mess? Neocons with thier stupid war in Iraq.
Iraq was the pride of neo-cons and when Russia left you. Remember Russia was with America on Afganistan and same Putin whose you dislike very much now helped Bush until the arrogance of neocons on Iraq and Kosovo ruined everything.

I’d concluded that Bush and his former defense secretary accually are fools.


10 posted on 03/04/2008 8:25:26 AM PST by RusIvan (ABM can be used to fend off the weakered by first strike reciprocal answer.)
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To: RusIvan
You sounds very pessimistic. America will doom by your own hands? Can you remember WHO ever brought you to such mess? Neocons with thier stupid war in Iraq. Iraq was the pride of neo-cons and when Russia left you. Remember Russia was with America on Afganistan and same Putin whose you dislike very much now helped Bush until the arrogance of neocons on Iraq and Kosovo ruined everything. I’d concluded that Bush and his former defense secretary accually are fools.

A little 'sun light' in your foolish words. First offfffff old Saddam signed an agreement way back in 1991, and the free world left his behind in tact. How many UN resolutions later and that literal scam of Oil for rotten Food program, in which Russia hope to take charge of old Saddam's oil, did the US get FORCED to require old Saddam to live up to his previous agreements.

Now old Saddam pick his route to that pit, because of nations like Russia and France and Germany among others promised him a way out. NOW if the Heavenly Father above had intentions to SAVE old Saddam not even the all powerful neocons would have touched him.

11 posted on 03/04/2008 8:31:53 AM PST by Just mythoughts (Isa.3:4 And I will give children to be their princes, and babes shall rule over them.)
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To: Just mythoughts

NOW if the Heavenly Father above had intentions to SAVE old Saddam not even the all powerful neocons would have touched him.
==

Russian proverb says: “In God trust but be smart”. Means the ways of God isn’t known by us mortals so we shouldn’t rely only on Providence in our life decisions but rely also on our own brains in the first place.


12 posted on 03/04/2008 8:53:30 AM PST by RusIvan (ABM can be used to fend off the weakered by first strike reciprocal answer.)
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To: RusIvan

Frankly, I think the article meant that Russia will do what it wants and that it was its strategy all along. As a result, as far as “relationships” go, Russia does not intend to have those in its way of achieving its goals, whereas it feels freeer and freeer to actual impose such as a way to be in the way of others.


13 posted on 03/04/2008 8:59:47 AM PST by JudgemAll (control freaks, their world & their problem with my gun and my protecting my private party)
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To: Just mythoughts

I do not defend Saddam at any ways. I meant Bush should listen not only arrogant neocons but also the world opinion including Russia and act through UN. But America did unilaterately and spoil any relations with Russia. What you profited form that? Nothing only losses around. Including into your purse. $800 blns of tax payers money was squandered. What economy can withstand this? I presume that America’ knees got bent now. No wonder after such economy bleeding.


14 posted on 03/04/2008 9:00:24 AM PST by RusIvan (ABM can be used to fend off the weakered by first strike reciprocal answer.)
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To: RusIvan

Well, I don’t agree. The only dog Russia had in Iraq was its oil for food deal with Saddam, the same deal that kept the French on Saddam’s side.

Russia and the US still have two major interests in common: keeping some sort of leash on China and fighting the Islamic expansionists. Regretably, Putin has been helping the Muslim terrorists, except where they threaten Russia directly. The US is not being totally sensible either, helping Kosovo.

And as Lenin might have said, by putting itself in a position where we it has to buy billions in oil from the Saudis and billions in cheap toys from China, the US is selling our enemies rope to hang us with.

So the fault is on both sides, but I’d say that Putin is the one who is doing it deliberately, whereas the US is just being stupid and conflicted between its two major parties.


15 posted on 03/04/2008 9:07:09 AM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Cicero

And as Lenin might have said, by putting itself in a position where we it has to buy billions in oil from the Saudis and billions in cheap toys from China, the US is selling our enemies rope to hang us with.==

Accually it was said not by Lenin but Karl Marx in his “Capital” book:). But it is not important:).
Important is that he was right.

So the fault is on both sides, but I’d say that Putin is the one who is doing it deliberately, whereas the US is just being stupid and conflicted between its two major parties.==

Putin beleives that the state capitalism is better then liberal one like in America. Compare today Russia and Japan you probably won’t find much difference. I think Russia follows Japan example not China.
“Being wrong” isn’t sin. After all no one can predict future. Wrong is to stick with your mistakes.
Remeber what market traders say; “Cut losses short”. America should depart from Iraq after 2004 and leave them alone since she “cann’t forbid people to be *sshole”. It is one smart american said.


16 posted on 03/04/2008 9:23:06 AM PST by RusIvan (ABM can be used to fend off the weakered by first strike reciprocal answer.)
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To: RusIvan

The vice versa is also true Ivan. The USA will not comply with Moscow’s demands. We will continue our ABM program and we will put missiles in Poland. We will not pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan. We will continue NATO expansion. If you don’t like it, tough.


17 posted on 03/04/2008 9:27:47 AM PST by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Tailgunner Joe

We will continue our ABM program and we will put missiles in Poland. We will not pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan. We will continue NATO expansion. ==

Accually I do not care:). It is just more cash cows from american tax payers. You shoot your own leg Joe:). Look into your wallet see $20000 annually which went right into toilet. More you “stay on a course” more your “hard earned” money you squander:).


18 posted on 03/04/2008 9:33:11 AM PST by RusIvan (ABM can be used to fend off the weakered by first strike reciprocal answer.)
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To: RusIvan

We’ve got plenty. Don’t believe too much of what you hear in the media about the USA’s “bleeding economy.” They are just trying to get democrats elected. We can afford to dominate the world and keep taking over Russia’s former sphere of influence for quite some time. Neither of us will live long enough to see the day when the US pulls out of Iraq.


19 posted on 03/04/2008 10:01:13 AM PST by Tailgunner Joe
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To: Tailgunner Joe

Actually there are economic problems, but it has little or nothing to do with Iraq. And the problems are worldwide. Russia may suffer less, because they are rich in natural resources, but Europe will probably suffer more than the US, and I think China will take a major hit.

I suspect that a lot of the supposed costs of Iraq are simply the costs of re-equipping the military after clinton ran everything down and left office with the supply chain almost empty. He used up all the cruise missiles, spare parts, and so forth and left his successor to pay the bills.

Why Bush has never pointed this out, I don’t know.


20 posted on 03/04/2008 10:26:33 AM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Tailgunner Joe

We can afford to dominate the world and keep taking over Russia’s former sphere of influence for quite some time. ==

Bhahaha:))) You make me laugh:)

Joe look on latin America they hate you guts right. then on our so called “sphere of influence”. What is common? They all are losers accually.which cann’t take responsibility for themseleves. And blame other like you or Russia.
You take them and they will hate you after 5+ years beacuse all tehy want is free lunch but you will not provide them.
So you what more Latin America hating on you? Then be my guest:). But we will be ther and near and they will turn to us eventually.

You reject the independent and strong country (Russia) which can be not your client thirsting for your free lunches from you but real friend maybe sometime do not agree or stubborn. But you pick up the bunch of losers who will drain your money. So stupid indeed. Do it it will burden you but Russia will rise even quicker.


21 posted on 03/04/2008 10:44:06 AM PST by RusIvan (ABM can be used to fend off the weakered by first strike reciprocal answer.)
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To: RusIvan

They will never hate us as much as they hate you Ivan.


22 posted on 03/04/2008 10:48:56 AM PST by Tailgunner Joe
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To: RusIvan
I do not defend Saddam at any ways. I meant Bush should listen not only arrogant neocons but also the world opinion including Russia and act through UN. But America did unilaterately and spoil any relations with Russia. What you profited form that? Nothing only losses around. Including into your purse. $800 blns of tax payers money was squandered. What economy can withstand this? I presume that America’ knees got bent now. No wonder after such economy bleeding.

The US went to the UN for crying out loud, now who sits upon that security counsel who should have rescued themselves for standing in the way of uprooting an evil dictator? Your words have been the liberals crying lies about the world standing against US and now pray tell was Russia so adamant in protection of a Saddam racket... illegal oil deals, billions of them. Oh yes I do expect pound for pound Russia's revenge, but time will tell how much flesh they will exact.

23 posted on 03/04/2008 10:49:27 AM PST by Just mythoughts (Isa.3:4 And I will give children to be their princes, and babes shall rule over them.)
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To: Just mythoughts

Bingo, both you and Cicero are correct. Americans as a whole will wind up literally bankrupt between inflation, massive housing correction and little to no availability to credit. Then Americans will do what is right to elect leadership that can change things. If this doesn’t change, I would not be a bit surprised to see the French Revolution Part Duex to occur in the next few short years.


24 posted on 03/04/2008 12:03:41 PM PST by quant5
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To: RusIvan

“You sounds very pessimistic. America will doom by your own hands?

Can you remember WHO ever brought you to such mess? Neocons with thier stupid war in Iraq.”

More or less yes, but 911 changed the strategic thought process and not all for the better. I don’t believe it was simply the war itself that raised frictions but certainly the post-war mismanagement further strained relations and caused our own economic pain.

Vladimir Putin changed his stance and reciprocated for his dissaproval of the attack of a a long-term, profitable ally which Russia surrounds itself with and many of these men are truly evil, but counter-balance is the way of the world, sometimes right, sometimes wrong.

I saw the biggest friction erupt when the U.S. became involved in the Orange Revolution. Yes, it may have been a reciprocal act from Russia’s targeted killings but it was also an attempted display of who was still in charge. Howevere, I believe our interference in Ukraine was outright dangerous. Ukraine would have made their own decisions over time and from what I have read, dislike Russia as a whole.

“Iraq was the pride of neo-cons and when Russia left you. Remember Russia was with America on Afganistan and same Putin whose you dislike very much now helped Bush until the arrogance of neocons on Iraq and Kosovo ruined everything.”

Yeah, have to say Kosovo was another big blunder. It would have been much better for us to have sat down with Putin over Kosovo and figured out a fair trade of cooperation, say discontinuation of Iran’s nuke program in exchange for no missle shield in Poland/Czech and rejection of the Kosovo State. Now Iran and Russia have a defense pact rather then a business relationship (if such can be called with the deranged mullahs of Iran).

“I’d concluded that Bush and his former defense secretary accually are fools”

I would have to say you are correct but what is worse is our State Department who declares it’s war one day and then the next day declares tea time. This makes other nations nervous as the U.S. is acting unpredictable. The President was betrayed by his own and suffered Lime disease. I am not letting him off the hook but it does explain some of the behavior.

So while I may have provided a statistical analysis of the probably coming events (and they are ugly) I would much prefer to see both great nations cooperate for the benefit of man. Perhaps such a dream is not possible until so much as been lost and people realize we are one species with entire universes/dimensions of creations to explore together. I myself was a little hard on you the other day RusIvan in my analytics. Perhaps we are as frustrated with our own leadership as you are. The biggest question you seem to pose is WHY?!?! The simple reason is because. Because we are human at the end of the day and prone to arrogance and depravity once a good semblence of security and prosperity are established.


25 posted on 03/04/2008 12:30:31 PM PST by quant5
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To: Just mythoughts

“Time will tell just what Putin and his HAND picked successor have in mind for US. Given where we have come in the past few years I am not anticipating Putin has in mind to play nice. I can’t help but wonder if this new Russian leader knows he is a tool for the almighty Putin”

They must have learned from the Iranians. Works well to have a private Spiritual Guide and calling the shots while a deranged puppet President spews the propoganda.


26 posted on 03/04/2008 12:33:03 PM PST by quant5
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To: Cicero

That’s true but like in almost all wars, nations are always overly optimistic about the duration of a conflict and the costs. The post-invasion mismanagement is what truly cost American tax-payer lives and treasure. Why the President didn’t just confiscate the oil fields is beyond me. If you’re going to piss the world off, at least get something out of it. The nations buying this oil on the free market would have gotten over it right quick :)


27 posted on 03/04/2008 12:38:29 PM PST by quant5
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To: quant5

Yes, I always thought that although the leftists would have screamed their heads off, Bush should have taken enough oil from Iraq to pay the costs.

Sure as hell the Russians or the French would have.


28 posted on 03/04/2008 1:02:59 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: Tailgunner Joe

They will never hate us as much as they hate you Ivan.==

Will you bet on it?:) My point is that after some times thier disappointment of you will reach enough level that then will stop hating us and will switch on you as “liers”. Thier kind like to blame others except them on thier hardship. I know it for sure because I know them:).
BTW does it ring the bell on you? Can you recall the entire race in US who does same?


29 posted on 03/05/2008 1:06:45 AM PST by RusIvan (ABM can be used to fend off the weakered by first strike reciprocal answer.)
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To: quant5

The biggest question you seem to pose is WHY?!?! The simple reason is because. Because we are human at the end of the day and prone to arrogance and depravity once a good semblence of security and prosperity are established.==

Good question and good answer. So applies to Puttin and russia. They also humans “prone to arrogance”. So do not judge Russia too strictly. Remember your own:).


30 posted on 03/05/2008 1:12:54 AM PST by RusIvan (ABM can be used to fend off the weakered by first strike reciprocal answer.)
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To: RusIvan

“Good question and good answer. So applies to Puttin and russia. They also humans “prone to arrogance”. So do not judge Russia too strictly. Remember your own:).”

Indeed :)


31 posted on 03/06/2008 8:40:55 AM PST by quant5
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