Posted on 03/06/2008 11:32:13 AM PST by OnRiver
SurveyUSA has a new set of polls out, testing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in all 50 states. The bottom line: Both candidates would narrowly win the Electoral College, but in very different ways.
Obama vs. McCain:
Hillary vs. McCain:
So which Democrat is the more electable option?
After crunching the numbers from these quite dissimilar maps, one finds that Obama would beat McCain 278-260, while Hillary would win by a nearly identical 276-262.
Those numbers sound like a qone state swing could decide things. I personally believe Mc Cain would beat Obama in a landslide. Much tougher with Clinton. Why do I believe this? Sorry to say it, but it is a race issue.
I’m not sure it will even be that close.
It depends on who McCain choses for his VP. If the goes moderate, unknown, left-of-center, he’s toast.
They have Florida for Clinton and Virginia for Obama....neither of these will hold. Virginia will support a conservative democrate but not a liberal one. Florida conservative democrates who make up the panhandle won’t support Hillary period. But this is a good look at the battleground..
Agreed. Interesting but delusional. For example: Obama winning Virginia, Hillary winning Florida, McCain winning New Jersey.
This analysis is meaningless until the Dems pick a nominee. A lot or respondents who looove Obama probably say they’d vote for McCain in a Hillary matchup and vice versa, but when it comes down to it, they’ll vote Dem. For example, the Hillary map gives Washington state to McCain. Are you kidding?
not really in my humble opinion...if he were conservative I would vote for him. Actually I think a majority of the people here would love to vote for a true conservative afroamerican. I’m sure you would.The fact that he is so liberal and will take affirmative action to higher levels is a issue he can be beat on even in Michigan where blue color guys hate AF. I think MCCAIN will take Pennsylvania and a few midwest states PLUS Oregon.
I hope its the guy from Minnesota as it would put Minnesota in play.
very good you know your states well...
Don’t be so sure.
If McCain goes with Gov. Pawlenty. I like his chances of picking up Minnesota, and neighboring Iowa and Wisconsin.
Great minds...
Looks like McCain needs to win Ohio in either scenario.
If Obama is their candidate, I think you are right about PA. They say PA is Pittsburg in the West and Philadelphia in the East. In between, it is Alabama. I think Mc Cain will carry Ohio also. Look at the analysis of the Ohio vote. Obama only carried 5 urban counties where he had a large black vote. Hillary carried 83 rural counties which were largely white. Nobody can tell me that with the Republican votes and those white Dems. and Independents that Obama could carry OH. Nobody wants to talk about “Race” as an issue, because it is politically incorrect. Nobody will admit to pollsters or anyone else that it will influence their vote, but it is there. Mc Cain will trounce Obama, and the analysis of the vote will reveal a huge white versus black divide, but nobody will use the “R” word.
me too! thats two votes for Paw....
Obama wins North Dakota? Riiight. Also given that both NJ and MD have passed laws that will give their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote, there is no way one could go blue and the other red as seen in this survey.
I agree about the race issue. I believe Hillary has only a small chance of winning because of her high negatives. If McCain runs a good campaign, there is a good chance he will be our next president.
yes without a doubt....Obama will loose but Hillary could be a problem there. Hillary would do better in Fla. but would still loose. Obama has no chance in the south.
If all the blacks and half the whites in ND vote for Obama, he’ll win by three votes.
is that state popular vote to national vote...as it as always been who ever wins the popular vote in the state goes the electoral votes. Only Hawaii and Maine and another state split it up.
Oh of course! We don’t have a chance. America will not be able to resist the either the most hated person ever to run for president on a major ticket, or the most liberal senator in America who just happens to have a Muslim name. That will be because he will get all the way to Election Day without having to answer a single question. And that will be because America is so willing to elect a Black man or a woman. Yes all of this is VERY easy to accept, of course. Puleeeeeeeeeeeeze I don’t like Mccain anymore than anyone else but I don’t let my feelings toward him blind me to the truth. Pew says 20% of White Democrats ADMIT they won’t vote for Obama, 43% of the general population say NO way ( Rasmussen) and 52% have said NO way to the beast.
McCain wins rather easily. The bradley factor will make polling impossible and a blinded camapign is a losing campaign. People hate the beast, and White men have not voted Democrat since 1964. Does anyone really believe either of these two jerks will even do as well with White men as algore or frenchie?
In the Keystone State, Clinton is viewed favorably by 77% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Obama is viewed favorably by 71% overall.
Nope...
If McCain can flip Ohio, he beats both according to the map.
I agree completely. Virginians will take one look at Obama's plans for the military and his chance of turning the state blue will be history.
I think McCain has an excellent chance of taking Florida over Hillary.
‘Taking’ Florida? Given that FL was solidly in the Bush column in 2004, that really isn’t saying much.
neither the Virginia nor the Florida numbers are very off. Virginia is no longer solid red. It is a swing state now.
Florida is THE swing state, and I predict that Hillary’s support among the elderly, women, Jews and hispanics will enable her to win that state.
either way, some of these swing states will be very close, although new Mexico could easily go McCain.
McCain’s perception as more middle of the road will help him here. Obama isn’t winning the South, period. I think McCain actually wins handily in Florida AND Ohio vs HRC or BHO.
Maybe I could see some spin for Virginia or Missouri to flip to McCain, but as others have said, he is far to liberal for either state IMO.
I think McCain has a better chance in PA, Wisc and MN than Obama does in Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
thats the way I see it too.
You know, I really love how the rats whined and complained about abolishing the electoral college when it didn’t suit their needs, and now have no complaints about the delegates and especially the “super” delegates in their screwed up party. Hypocracy — thy name is democrat.
SurveyUSA has a new set of polls out, testing Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in all 50 states. The bottom line: Both candidates would narrowly win the Electoral College, but in very different ways.
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