Posted on 03/07/2008 4:34:02 AM PST by SJackson
| McCain Turns Purple States Red? |
Much of the current analysis of the presidential campaign battle is missing the point. All of the media attention is focused on the Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama heavyweight fight as if it will decide the election. But it seems observers in Washington, D.C. haven’t yet sensed the undercurrent running in the country, which for the first time in four years has turned and is running the Republican’s direction. The election map is changing. And with the changes, it will offer a totally new red/blue-state picture when the dust clears next November.
A brand new poll commissioned by the National Campaign Fund shows that McCain can win California. The findings show, if Barack Obama is the nominee, he is in trouble on two issues in California. For Hillary Clinton, one issue in particular poses a problem for her in that state. First, the poll, which was written by Adam Geller of the respected National Research Inc., shows that both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are stuck under the magic 50% mark against John McCain in California.
The poll concludes: “when voters learn of Obama’s support of licenses to illegal aliens, they become far less likely to support him. They are also far less likely to support Obama when they learn of his support for more spending, to be funded by higher taxes.” McCain puts California in play for Republicans for the first time since 1988, or 20 years.
Hillary, likewise, has a big problem in California. As a state with a large retired population, “when voters learn the details of Clinton’s failed health care proposal -- which she has tried to resurrect -- they become far less likely to support her. These messages are especially effective among swing voters,” Gellar’s poll says.
The incessant fighting amongst Democrats is beginning to take its toll: “Democrats are showing the signs of split due to the contentious primary between Clinton and Obama. McCain is benefiting, receiving a decent number of votes from Obama favorables versus Hillary, and from Hillary favorables versus Obama,” the Gellar poll shows.
Hillary won the Democratic primary in California and in Texas relying heavily on Hispanic voters. These voters are much friendlier to McCain than Obama. McCain has traditionally done well with Hispanic voters in Arizona, his home state. Hillary Clinton’s Texas victory has even been called by one political pundit the “triumph of the red necks and Hispanics over the inner city blacks that have come to dominate Democratic primaries.”
In addition to California, New Jersey, Oregon, Washington and Connecticut look like blue states that could easily shift to the maverick westerner McCain.
Another undercurrent that is running against any Democratic candidate is the electorate’s perception of Iraq. According to a survey by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center: “Public views of the military effort in Iraq have become more positive. The results suggest that, barring another reversal, Democrats' ability to use the war as a political weapon could be somewhat curtailed, particularly when the general election campaign begins.”
McCain is unique in that he criticized President Bush’s strategy when it wasn’t working, and he advocated the surge in troops. When President Bush adopted the McCain strategy of a surge, Iraq news turned more positive. These opinions track more closely with the views of a majority of Americans, and the Democrat contenders’ position of immediate withdrawal is only popular with the hard left in their party.
Finally, Hillary Clinton’s attacks on Obama’s experience and foreign policy expertise are starting to take a toll. Even if Obama wins the nomination as his delegate lead suggests, Hillary Clinton’s attacks will damage Obama for the general election and telegraph a similar strategy that will be adopted by McCain in the fall.
The longer this bloodletting continues in the Democratic Party, the less likely either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will go onto the White House as president.
I am here in California, and illegal aliens are a HUGE issue here. plus, many Hispanics will not vote for a black for President.
McShamnesty is more blue than purple, imo.
He is more red than Hillobama though. That’s all that counts.
What really counts is we have three bozos running for the presidency. Two military hating socialists and one liberal RINOthat follows the liberal line much to often.
How can a Reagan conservative support whole heartedly any of these three?
No one is asking you to support anyone “whole hardedly”. Just go out on election day and vote for McCain. If you can’t do that then stay home and endure the consequences for the next four (probably eight)years. Pretty simple, really.
As more Americans face the reality of pulling out of a war we are winning, Iraq will become a huge negative for Obama.
Hello Joe! As a “Reagan Conservative”, you can start by doing what Reagan did. He made his case for his positions and if he didn’t win, he supported the one closest to him, i.e., the GOP candidate. Reagan WAS a pragmatist. He was not a whiner who ran away crying when he didn’t get everything he wanted.
Obama is limited by the finite number of nuts he can draw to his cult. Plus he has to somehow convince the democrat racists to vote for him. And hillary is by far the most disliked woman in America. She is incapable of fixing that.
If we had a bona-fide conservative running with a positive message, the election results would rival or surpass Reagan’s win in 1984.
McCain is stealing a page from Rove’s playbook. Convince Dems that blue states are ‘in play’. It got Bush elected in ‘04. Bush’s camp was able to convince the media that New Jersey was in play and Cheney flew to Hawaii to throw off Kerry. Very fun and tricky.
Headline: McCain turns Red States Black and Blue
I am never impressed with Democrat infighting.
Look, I’ll probably in the end hold my nose and pull the lever for McLame. I can bitch obout the lousy selection though.
Correct, except that the consequences will last more than 8 years, thanks to things like Supreme Court appointments and degradation of our military. There's really no choice but to vote for McCain.
“How can a Reagan conservative support whole heartedly any of these three?”
I know I can’t. That’s why I think Republicans and not Democrats should draft Al Gore. He’s more conservative than all three.
All this means is that, no matter who wins, we’ll have Democrat in the Whitehouse.
I think Republicans and not Democrats should draft Al Gore. He’s more conservative than all three.
I’m sure you would still think that way when he doubled your taxes to pay for a cure for global warming.
That would be okay with me. I buy and sell carbon credits.
This decision came as an extensive campaign of lies about Prop 187 was in full stride. Prop 187 hurt the Party the lie fest declared. Heavy weights (Kemp, Bill Bennett, Jeb Bush among them) swore it was true, and at conservatives.
Candidates for statewide office avoided talk radio (at least they refused to go on KSFO until just a few years ago).
I did not verify this but I believe that Republicans have won just four statewide offices -- including Schwarzenkennedy winning governor twice -- in ten years.
Thus Democrat moles run the California Republican Party, IMO.
With the other two, I'm afraid I'll wake up in the USSR someday soon. Homeschooling will be a distant memory, universal health-care will be taking 40% of our income, my guns will be confiscated...
Yeah, McCain isn't great, but he's not Satan.
Why Republicans are called 'red' is a pure propaganda from the left. They were sick of being called red.
Most poignant post I've seen in a lonnngggg time...
LOL. What utter nonsense.
“I don’t give a damn what ANY so called “EXPERT” says, NOBODY can give up 20% of his base and win.”
Hey, if Juan don’t care about the Republican base, why should the dhimmis care about theirs?
Marie, 1st let me thank your family for loaning your husband to all of us to help keep us safe.
He is a hero and we all can’t thank him enough.
In the end I’ll hold my nose and pull the lever for McCain.
I don’t like him but he is the better of the three.
You already know the long list of negatives following McCain and I’m sure you don’t need me to copy them. Comparatively he is by far better for America.
I still don’t like the guy and his amnesty nor his McCain Feingold bill to limit my free speech.
GOD Bless.
That is what happened here in Texas...Mexicans flat out did not support Obama...
That's true, he is to the right of Bush, and Bush won twice.
Why do Hispanics not like blacks?
Another weird thing. Many Hispanics are very hostile to Jews, for some reason. And, there are a TON of LW Jews in the Democrat Party, and that turns Hispanics off big-time. Food for thought.
Let's vote in JM for the POTUS then put some *real* conservatives in congress and use this "balance of power" thing to our advantage.
I was in the military during the Viet Nam war. Not too many folks believed the military was working for our well being and we were treated as such.
Today when I go to a large airport and see folks stopping to applaud our military I am so grateful that they are treated thusly.
Your husband is one fine person and I am so sorry but grateful you are without him at times.
Thanks to you, your family and him.
I only pray your neighbors and community and schools treat you and your family well.
Again GOD Bless.
Each evening when my family sit together for dinner we thank the lord for our family, health His Holy Son and to please bring each of our heros home safely to their families..
What is Jim Lacy smoking? His push poll is NOT representative of the California I live in.
Vote McCain! He's not Satan.
Great slogan. ;-)
Activists yes, decades long ties between Mecha and the PLO, they provide a model, and it's fashionable for the hard left in general, but Hispanics in general, don't know that I'd agree.
My real question, what are LW Jews? Never heard that.
He is tempermentally unsound-- The RNC disenfranchised me, but they can't make me support their old, sick, mean and crazy candidate.
I've seen a lot of conflicting arguments ranging from both Hillary and Obama being very beatable to a Hillary/Obama (or maybe Obama/Hillary) ticket being extremely formidable. I don't know which is the case, and of course that's what elections are for.
But let's not forget that there is a third possibility: The convention might deadlock, or the two candidates could so bloody each other as to raise doubts about both of them even in the minds of Democrats. In that case, Al Gore comes riding to the rescue as the consensus savior of the Democratic Party.
Al Gore would be much more formidable than either Hillary or Obama. He has the experience which both of them lack. He has the signature issue of Global Warming which the Mainstream Media has turned into conventional wisdom. He has his Nobel Peace Prize and Academy Award and a personal fortune of $100 million. He has not been beat up by a year and a half of campaigning for the nomination. The Mainstream Media would go crazy over him, and Democrats would unite in their passion to rectify the "stolen" 2000 election.
I give it about a 20% chance of happening, with the probability increasing the longer that the Democrats fail to anoint either Hillary or Obama as the winner.
What nonsense.
Above all else, Reagan was a partisan, not an ideologue.
Reagan's threshold was 75%. Less and her walked away.
The 11th Commandment, adopted by Reagan, defended a conservative ideologue against the country club liberals within the Republican party. Never did Reagan actively support a liberal Republican.
Reagan was far from perfect. He was the progenitor of illegal Mexican immigration in the 20th century.
Colorado will easily be in the McCain column.
This is a partisan problem, not an ideologue problem. If a Democrat is elected in November, the Republican Party is to blame for allowing the nomination of a Republican candidate who literally despises both the traditional GOP platform and the party's base philosophy.
On the other hand, if McCain succeeds in November, with the support of independent liberals and soft Democrats, the Republican Party is also to blame. They GOP may not be able to recover from the damage McCain has demonstrated he will do to the part's base and the US Constitution.
Who is clearly not to blame. The conservative ideologue in the GOP base who has the courage to vote his convictions in the face of the cancer metastasizing within the GOP.
Boy are you making this up as you go!
Reagan's threshold was 75%. Less and her walked away.
First let me tell you that Reagan was a man. Secondly, stop spewing out nonsense. Party unity was very, very important to Reagan and your self madeup-dribble has no basis in fact.
This article is so far off, that it’s a joke. The only possible reason that McCain could get any of those states is if McCain comes up with the winning strategy for dealing with Chavez, and I don’t mean winning as in victory, I mean winning as in popularity.
If the Democrat Presidential meltdown continues apace, McCain might win the election by courting disaffected Democrats. Unfortunately, those people would cause the GOP to be slaughtered in Congress. If McCain gets enough votes from Democrats to win, that will not be a good thing.
Bring facts , not feelings to this forum.
Party unity was very, very important to Reagan
Best guess, the account was one of the many Republican partisans who migrated to the forum after the 2000 election cycle thinking it was partisan.
If AU absolutely, positively has to express Republican partisan mantra, try posting on FreeRepublican.com
But, John McCain leans toward an Amnesty-friendly position. So, how can he carry California if that’s the big issue?
LEFT WING Jews.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.