Posted on 03/07/2008 6:30:50 AM PST by Perdogg
The Labor Department says employers slashed jobs by 63,000 in February, the most since March 2003. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.8 percent as people leave the labor force. Confidence in the economy dropped to a new low as worries about a possible recession, persistent problems in the housing and credit markets and lofty energy prices put people in a more gloomy mind-set.
4.8 is pretty much “full employment”.
Ouch...
Media setting up a bad economy for a democrat candidate.
Women and minorities hardest hit.
I remember when 4.8% unemployment would have cause politicians to have simultaneous orgasms of happiness. Today, it’s just more depressing news fodder spun for political benefit.
Possibly what’s happening is that the illegals are going home in larger numbers, reducing the unemployment rate, but also putting downward pressure on the economy.
Any text book that touches the subject declares 5% unemployment as “full employment”.
Unemployment during the Clinton years was ~5.4% and that was touted as boom times.
By August or so the news will be much better.
There is one thing that eases my concerns: the balance sheets of most of our corporations have never been healthier, except for the banks. I see the Fed keeping the funds flowing to offset the lack of lending by banks.
I think that will be sufficient to stave off a recession. Slow growth, yes...recession, no.
If I'm right, the popping of that bubble alone will take care of a lot of the rest.
Bump
Yeah, they’ve been working on that for sometime.
This is pretty much going to keep on happening for 15-20 years.
The boomers are retiring.
About a year ago I voluntarily left the work force — retirement. I am one of the oldest boomers.
This is a triumph of free enterprise. People have actually been able to accumulate enough capital to quit working.
In all fairness, it was considered boom times because the unemployment rate fell steadily from a high of 7.8% in June 1992 to a low of 3.8% in April 2000.
The rate also fell from a high of 6.3% in June 2003, early in the Bush administration, to a low of 4.4% a recently as March 2007, also a strong time.
The problem now has been the trend. 4.8% isn’t a problem, the concern is that the trend for employment has been negative.
The payrolls and th unemployment rate are calculated based on two different surveys, which is why they sometimes move in different directions. And they are just that, surveys. Not actually a full counting, so take it for what you will. There are margins of error involved.
Given the Fed’s rate cuts and the stimulus packaged (whatever your opinion of it), you may be right.
“package” not “packaged”
Dammit, man! That preview button is there for a reason!
Almost forgot about that! Retail should soar in April.
I wonder if any of these "statistics" give any consideration to the large number of people who have never put themselves in "the labor force." As long as some people can get income, groceries, drugs (legal and illegal) and some place to live they don't bother to look for employment much less anything resembling labor.
You might be right. With the large numbers of people staying indoors through this rough winter, I would bet April will be a very good retail month. People want to get out of their houses.
*snort* I was left scratching my head at that combination, as well.
“Timing for Dems is not good. The bad economic news is peaking too early.
By August or so the news will be much better.”
But Public opinion of the economy always lags behind reports of good news. And we know how the MSM is gong to play this.
Lets hope gas is not in the $4 a gallon range in late summer.
gong=going :(
How does one leave the labor force? Move into parent's basement?
The bad economic news has peaked too early. There fixed it... Companies like NSM show the bottom in January, and rising orders now. This will be known as the Great January Recession of 2008....no quarters down, no recession! Of course, some banks, home builders, and hedge funds will continue their recession ways 'til summer! To see where some homes are being sold see the Association of Foreign Investors in Real Estate. Our new neighbors have lotsa cheap US Dollars to spend!
Maybe more than 63,000 illegals went back to Mexico...
Depends on what it measures.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.