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New 'super-spike' might mean $200 a barrel oil(so says Goldman Sachs)
Market Watch ^ | 03/07/08 | Steve Gelsi

Posted on 03/07/2008 7:24:17 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster

New 'super-spike' might mean $200 a barrel oil

Goldman's projections foretell persistent turbulence in energy prices

By Steve Gelsi, MarketWatch

Last update: 1:42 p.m. EST March 7, 2008

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- With $100-a-barrel here for now, Goldman Sachs says $200 a barrel could be a reality in the not-too-distant future in the case of a "major disruption." Goldman on Friday also boosted by $10 the low end of its 2008-2012 projected range for crude to $60 a barrel -- significantly lower than current prices, to be sure, but a possible mark for oil if "normalized" trends return to the marketplace.

With the dollar's fall continuing and financial markets roiled by the credit crunch, commodities like oil have been drawing the fancy of increasing numbers of investors. Accordingly, Wall Street firms have been eager to adjust forecasts to incorporate fresh data on the global economy and energy supplies.

Goldman analysts Arjun Murti, Kevin Koh and Michele della Vigna said prices have advanced more quickly than Goldman had forecast back in 2005, when it predicted a range of $50 to $105 a barrel as part of its "super-spike" oil theory.

"We characterized the upper end of the band as more likely to be driven by geopolitical turmoil and that recession was a key risk to our view," the analysts said. "In fact, oil prices have reached $100 a barrel without extraordinary turmoil, and the U.S. currently appears to be in recession."

(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: alternativefuels; biofuels; ethanol; goldmansachs; oil; superspike
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Hmm.. I am sure that Goldman Sachs has already positioned itself to benefit from super-hike. It would help if Abby Joseph Cohen does cheerleading for high oil price. She is good at talking things up.:-)
1 posted on 03/07/2008 7:24:20 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
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To: TigerLikesRooster; Uncle Ike; RSmithOpt; jiggyboy; 2banana; Travis McGee; OwenKellogg

Ping!


2 posted on 03/07/2008 7:25:00 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster (kim jong-il, chia head, ppogri, In Grim Reaper we trust)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Too bad the Libs weren’t right...if Iraq were a war for oil stories like this wouldn’t be published.


3 posted on 03/07/2008 7:26:09 PM PST by tj21807
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Spinning for profits.


4 posted on 03/07/2008 7:26:33 PM PST by Mad_Tom_Rackham ("The land of the Free...Because of the Brave")
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To: TigerLikesRooster

She’s a stock analyst, not a commodities analyst. You should learn what you are talking about before you start talking smack.


5 posted on 03/07/2008 7:27:33 PM PST by FightThePower! (Fight the powers that be!)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

“I am sure that Goldman Sachs has already positioned itself to benefit from super-hike.”

Exactly.


6 posted on 03/07/2008 7:28:02 PM PST by Shermy
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To: TigerLikesRooster
I am sure that Goldman Sachs has already positioned itself to benefit from super-hike.

That's their job. But it doesn't necessarily mean that this forecast is bogus.

7 posted on 03/07/2008 7:31:01 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

$200 oil right before the election might be the best thing in the long run.


8 posted on 03/07/2008 7:32:53 PM PST by Balding_Eagle (If America falls, darkness will cover the face of the earth for a thousand years.)
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To: FightThePower!
I know. I was joking. However, I know Goldman Sachs would do anything to make the oil bubble sky-high.
9 posted on 03/07/2008 7:35:08 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster (kim jong-il, chia head, ppogri, In Grim Reaper we trust)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Thank you Dims for keeping this country dependent on foreign oil.
10 posted on 03/07/2008 7:38:11 PM PST by skateman (Always vote Republican)
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To: Cicero
It will go up, but I doubt it will go up that high.
11 posted on 03/07/2008 7:38:17 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster (kim jong-il, chia head, ppogri, In Grim Reaper we trust)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
This is a certain sign the GS is short on oil...over the long term.

They'll do what they can to pump oil up in the short term...increase their short position as a hedge...and then wait for the this, the "next bubble" to crash.

12 posted on 03/07/2008 7:38:38 PM PST by Mariner
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To: TigerLikesRooster

There is a point (we obviously haven’t reached it yet) where the price of oil becomes so prohibitive, threatening the economic well being of any importer of petroleum, that the industrial nations which depend on oil will collectively say ‘enough is enough’ and their military forces will descend upon the Middle East like a pack of ravenous wolves, and we WILL see the so-called ‘War for Oil’ that leftists and liberals of all stripes claim we are already engaged in.

Those nations without an effective fighting force will align themselves with those who do, for a price, and ‘OPEC’ will stand for ‘Occupied Petroleum Exporting Colonies’.

I would suspect that we will see unified military action taken long before oil even gets close to $200 a barrel. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the navies sailing and the bombers flying at $130.


13 posted on 03/07/2008 7:38:51 PM PST by mkjessup (Famous 'Rat Initials: FDR, HST, JFK, LBJ .... to be followed by *B.O.* ?!? - I don't think so!! LOL)
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To: mkjessup
If it goes up too fast and too high, that is a possibility.
14 posted on 03/07/2008 7:41:43 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster (kim jong-il, chia head, ppogri, In Grim Reaper we trust)
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To: mkjessup

“I would suspect that we will see unified military action taken long before oil even gets close to $200 a barrel. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the navies sailing and the bombers flying at $130.”

So we should steal what we can’t buy? Isn’t that why Japan bombed Pearl Harbor?


15 posted on 03/07/2008 7:44:07 PM PST by FightThePower! (Fight the powers that be!)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
It's amazing that they would want oil to go to $200. It will cause a severe recession or depression.
16 posted on 03/07/2008 7:45:32 PM PST by mysterio
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To: FightThePower!
So we should steal what we can’t buy? Isn’t that why Japan bombed Pearl Harbor?

1.) Absolutely.

2.) We're not Japan and OPEC is a pack of thieves anyway.
17 posted on 03/07/2008 7:47:56 PM PST by mkjessup (Famous 'Rat Initials: FDR, HST, JFK, LBJ .... to be followed by *B.O.* ?!? - I don't think so!! LOL)
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To: skateman
“Thank you Dims for keeping this country dependent on foreign oil.”

Bush could sign an executive order tomorrow that would require federal employees who's jobs don't require it to telecommute 2 days a week. In addition to that, he could ask congress to pass a law that would require companies to allow employees who are in a position to do so to do the same. That would reduce demand and lower the price long enough for us to DRILL for domestic oil.

18 posted on 03/07/2008 7:50:23 PM PST by FightThePower! (Fight the powers that be!)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
If it goes up too fast and too high, that is a possibility.

What the weak sisters don't understand is that as the price of oil heads higher and higher, it places more and more hard currency into the hands of Islamofascist regimes which makes it ever easier for them to underwrite terrorist organizations (either through a desire to support them, or as means of buying 'protection' as the Saudis have done in the past), in addition the increased revenue can be poured into nuclear weapon programs and that alone ought to be plenty of reason to send in the Marines and seize control of each and every petroleum asset in that region.
19 posted on 03/07/2008 7:51:54 PM PST by mkjessup (Famous 'Rat Initials: FDR, HST, JFK, LBJ .... to be followed by *B.O.* ?!? - I don't think so!! LOL)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Isn't McCain against drilling in ANWR?

Can you imagine if there was a Republican running for President? He could say that he will push for drilling in ANWR and Idaho oil shale, and pump it out as fast as he can til gas is back to $1.50 a gallon. I wonder if people would respond to that?

But I understand, it is more important that your friends in the New York Times applaud your decisions--and your "maverick" status.

20 posted on 03/07/2008 7:53:48 PM PST by Defiant (Para votar Obama, se necessita una cabeza de nada...un cabeza de nada, para mi para ti, ay arriba..)
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To: mkjessup
“So we should steal what we can’t buy? Isn’t that why Japan bombed Pearl Harbor?

1.) Absolutely.”

Right, the whole world lives for the good of the USA. And if we can't we should start killing people who don't give us what we are not willing to pay for. That is immoral, and I would say that makes you immoral.

If we do that, the whole world will line up against us.

21 posted on 03/07/2008 7:54:34 PM PST by FightThePower! (Fight the powers that be!)
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To: FightThePower!
Isn’t that why Japan bombed Pearl Harbor?

I thought that was the Germans?

22 posted on 03/07/2008 7:55:18 PM PST by ARE SOLE (Agents Ramos and Campean are in prison at this very moment.. (A "Concerned Citizen".)
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To: ARE SOLE

“Isn’t that why Japan bombed Pearl Harbor?
I thought that was the Germans?”

Germans? Forget it he’s rolling.


23 posted on 03/07/2008 7:57:27 PM PST by FightThePower! (Fight the powers that be!)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Goldman is giving the rest of us 15 minutes notice.


24 posted on 03/07/2008 8:00:57 PM PST by Eric in the Ozarks (ENERGY CRISIS made in Washington D. C.)
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To: FightThePower!
If we do that, the whole world will line up against us.

I think the point is, if oil skyrocketed enough, a significant portion of the world would line up alongside us.

But I'd bet against $200 oil anytime soon, whatever GS says.

25 posted on 03/07/2008 8:01:06 PM PST by squidly
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To: FightThePower!
We should get a few nuclear reactors up and running *soon*. Save the oil for cars and plastic.

And stop burning our *food* for energy!!

26 posted on 03/07/2008 8:04:40 PM PST by Marie (Why is it that some people believe everything that happens is the will of G-d - except Israel?)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

It might also be a matter of a shrinking dollar. They seem to be saying that it might “spike” to $200. That suggests a hyperbolic upmove and a quick drop, the way gold behaved in 1980.


27 posted on 03/07/2008 8:05:43 PM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: squidly
“But I'd bet against $200 oil anytime soon, whatever GS says.”

Well, Bernacki is increasing the amount of money in circulation by 25% a year so I'd say we will be there in a minimum of 4 years.

28 posted on 03/07/2008 8:12:03 PM PST by FightThePower! (Fight the powers that be!)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

More like they have positioned themselves to benefit from a market jump caused by causing more uncertainty in the oil market.


29 posted on 03/07/2008 8:18:22 PM PST by SlapHappyPappy
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To: FightThePower!
So we should steal what we can’t buy?

It was ours to begin with. Who do you think explored, drilled and produced oil out of the Middle East? It certainly wasn't those Muslim simpletons.

If not for our efforts 80 years ago, those camel-jocks would still be wandering the sands.

We should take it back.

30 posted on 03/07/2008 8:36:53 PM PST by buccaneer81 (Bob Taft has soiled the family name for the next century.)
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To: FightThePower!
Right, the whole world lives for the good of the USA. And if we can't we should start killing people who don't give us what we are not willing to pay for. That is immoral, and I would say that makes you immoral.

Thanks for weighing in , Senator Obama.

31 posted on 03/07/2008 8:39:18 PM PST by buccaneer81 (Bob Taft has soiled the family name for the next century.)
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To: mkjessup
‘OPEC’ will stand for ‘Occupied Petroleum Exporting Colonies’.

Now THAT has a nice ring to it. A REALLY nice ring.

32 posted on 03/07/2008 8:47:28 PM PST by TLI ( ITINERIS IMPENDEO VALHALLA)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

We are a paper tiger to take this, we have leverage in many ways, just exercise them.


33 posted on 03/07/2008 8:57:12 PM PST by boomop1
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To: Balding_Eagle
"$200 oil right before the election might be the best thing in the long run."

But Bush won't be able to help his "oil buddies make obscene profits" after 2009. What will liberals blame high prices on?

34 posted on 03/07/2008 9:06:40 PM PST by boop (Democracy is the theory that the people get the government they deserve, good and hard.)
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To: FightThePower!

Indeed - Greater East-Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere

But it did not work

Maybe this time ???


35 posted on 03/07/2008 9:28:59 PM PST by Seajay (Ordem e Progresso)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

If the price goes high enough, not only will we be drilling in ANWAR, but also off the coast of Florida and California.


36 posted on 03/07/2008 10:17:25 PM PST by FFranco
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To: FightThePower!
Right, the whole world lives for the good of the USA. And if we can't we should start killing people who don't give us what we are not willing to pay for. That is immoral, and I would say that makes you immoral. If we do that, the whole world will line up against us.

If the government would do what they actually CAN do, like imposing sanctions that really have an impact on them as much as the out of control oil price has on us, we would be laughing at them now.

37 posted on 03/07/2008 10:24:23 PM PST by X-FID
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To: FFranco

It could be, partly, because indications are that a terrorist attack is imminent.


38 posted on 03/07/2008 10:27:27 PM PST by silentknight
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To: TigerLikesRooster
Hmm.. I am sure that Goldman Sachs has already positioned itself to benefit from super-hike. It would help if Abby Joseph Cohen does cheerleading for high oil price. She is good at talking things up.:-)

I have read / heard that the high oil prices are all due to speculation.
It's actually the cost of "oil futures" that is going up, as the prices we are seeing is what the stock market is actually paying for oil that isn't even out of the ground yet.

I notice some posters conjecturing that the problem may be solved by military action.
Only a political neophyte would make a move like that.
More likely, the FTC will ban all trading in oil futures, and end all speculation on the market.
Goldman Sachs and others could find themselves eating big losses if the FTC gets involved.

39 posted on 03/07/2008 10:42:59 PM PST by Drammach (Freedom - It's not just a job, It's an Adventure)
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To: Drammach

So it seems who will be whacked all depends on who has the bigger lobbying power, OPEC or Wall St.:-)


40 posted on 03/07/2008 10:51:11 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster (kim jong-il, chia head, ppogri, In Grim Reaper we trust)
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To: TigerLikesRooster; All

Interesting - they’re a big Obama contributor.

http://opensecrets.org/pres08/contrib.asp?id=N00009638&cycle=2008


41 posted on 03/07/2008 11:57:05 PM PST by JavaJumpy
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To: Drammach

Does the FTC even regulate financial instruments? I can’t imagine they have the power to actually ban futures, and even if they did it would never stop them from being traded—all trading would just move overseas.


42 posted on 03/07/2008 11:59:45 PM PST by Young Scholar
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To: mkjessup; TigerLikesRooster; FightThePower!
I would suspect that we will see unified military action taken long before oil even gets close to $200 a barrel. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the navies sailing and the bombers flying at $130.

How about we just get pissed off enough to tell the greenies enough is enough and drill for our own oil and take advantage of nuke power and also do what we can with oil shale. Seems like a better alternative than fighting some other country for what we already have right here if we would just hunt for it and ultilize it, instead of letting eviros call the every turn..

43 posted on 03/08/2008 2:44:02 AM PST by calex59
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To: calex59
Will take several years or a decade to start production even if we start to act now.
44 posted on 03/08/2008 3:02:33 AM PST by TigerLikesRooster (kim jong-il, chia head, ppogri, In Grim Reaper we trust)
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To: FightThePower!
Right, the whole world lives for the good of the USA. And if we can't we should start killing people who don't give us what we are not willing to pay for. That is immoral, and I would say that makes you immoral. If we do that, the whole world will line up against us.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
45 posted on 03/08/2008 3:43:54 AM PST by mkjessup (Famous 'Rat Initials: FDR, HST, JFK, LBJ .... to be followed by *B.O.* ?!? - I don't think so!! LOL)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

” I am sure that Goldman Sachs has already positioned itself to benefit from super-hike.”

I’m sure GS will be on both sides of the play.


46 posted on 03/08/2008 3:46:33 AM PST by OpusatFR
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To: TLI
OPEC’ will stand for ‘Occupied Petroleum Exporting Colonies’.
Now THAT has a nice ring to it. A REALLY nice ring.


Can't do it. Somebody in this thread is already whining about it being *IMMORAL* so we can't even discuss it, let alone think about it.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled kumbaya program.
47 posted on 03/08/2008 3:46:49 AM PST by mkjessup (Famous 'Rat Initials: FDR, HST, JFK, LBJ .... to be followed by *B.O.* ?!? - I don't think so!! LOL)
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To: calex59
How about we just get pissed off enough to tell the greenies enough is enough and drill for our own oil and take advantage of nuke power and also do what we can with oil shale. Seems like a better alternative than fighting some other country for what we already have right here if we would just hunt for it and utilize it, instead of letting enviros call the every turn.

That's not a bad concept although there are definite strategic advantages to using up Middle Eastern oil reserves before turning to our own. In addition, seizing those reserves means that the Islamofascists are denied the benefits of all that petro-revenue.

Contrary to what one poster suggested, this isn't really about 'stealing' anything, it is about positive, preemptive action in taking control of a strategic asset that needs to be in U.S. hands, as opposed to potential enemy hands. Nobody is suggesting that appropriate compensation would not be made to the *people* of those regions who would rightly expect a fair (not a wildly inflated) price for their oil. If (hypothetically) we were talking about vast underground reserves of weapons grade plutonium, we would have already seized that material decades ago rather than allow potential enemies to acquire it.

Vastly inflated prices for oil provide enhanced funding for terrorism. There is no difference, the principle is the same.
48 posted on 03/08/2008 3:55:09 AM PST by mkjessup (Famous 'Rat Initials: FDR, HST, JFK, LBJ .... to be followed by *B.O.* ?!? - I don't think so!! LOL)
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To: buccaneer81; FightThePower!
So we should steal what we can’t buy?
It was ours to begin with. Who do you think explored, drilled and produced oil out of the Middle East? It certainly wasn't those Muslim simpletons. If not for our efforts 80 years ago, those camel-jocks would still be wandering the sands. We should take it back.


Ohhhh but that would be *IMMORAL* and the rest of the world wouldn't like us anymore!

/sarc off
49 posted on 03/08/2008 4:01:27 AM PST by mkjessup (Famous 'Rat Initials: FDR, HST, JFK, LBJ .... to be followed by *B.O.* ?!? - I don't think so!! LOL)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

Sudden 200 dollar oil coming from, say, the closure of the Hormuz Straits to tanker traffic, would not help GS or anyone else. It would blow up world markets.


50 posted on 03/08/2008 4:49:09 AM PST by Travis McGee (---www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com---)
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