At best Obama only picks up 2 delegates in a caucus state. But, if he can follow through with a 60% - 40% win in the primary in Missisippi it will help him to pull away from her in delegates and it will add to his popular vote advantage.
I’m still not convinced that Hillary’s momentum is broken. She’s got 5 weeks to tear down his image of invincibility before the Pennsylvania primary. Unless she can win by 30% there, then its all over and there will be no civil war at the convention. If however, she can get that big win in PA then there will be do-overs in MI and FL.
you can bet that fast eddie rendell is already hard at “work” in pa.
The big news is that the super delegates are inching their way up for Obama every day. I think he picked up close to 50 in the past week or so.
pssst...it ain't gonna happen, she's waiting for either the top spot or the vp spot...BELIEVE me it will happen, it's in the cards!
She's not going to win by 30 points. Despite Fast Eddie's special sauce, Phila. and Pitts. will come out big for Obama. Unions used to hold sway in PA, but no more. There isn't a large Hispanic population in PA, so Hillary can't count on that.
Don't discount a big GOP crossover to vote Obama. I'm considering it myself, but want to wait another week or so and see how the polls shake out. If it stays in single digits for Hillary, I won't bother.
It is over. Hillary can't catch him in pledged delegates.
After the WY and Mississippi primaries are finished by Tuesday, adding to Obama's lead and reducing the number of delegates in play to 567, Hillary will need even bigger victory margins than 63% to 37%. And then there is NC with 115 delgates at play with Obama clearly favored given the makeup of the Dem party in the state.
The math is clearly against Hillary. To deny it is just plain fantasy. How many states so far has Clinton won by margins of 63% or more? Answer: One [Arkansas]. How many states has Clinton won by margins of 56% or more? Answer: Four.
Basically, the said Obama will win either in states that blacks are a majority of Democrat voters or in states where blacks are such a small minority that racial tensions are non-existent.
Hillary will win in states where blacks are not a large enough part of the Democrat voters to change the outcome but are large enough to cause racial tensions with lunchpail democrats.
It is not a nice theory, but it has so far proven accurate.