Posted on 03/09/2008 8:50:51 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
And you thought that I had a gloomy outlook on the economy. Now the bad news pops up everywhere.
Harry Koza in the Globe and Mail quotes Bernard Connelly, the global strategist at Banque AIG in London, who claims that the likelihood of a Great Depression is growing by the day.
Martin Wolf, celebrated columnist of the U.K.-based Financial Times, cites Dr. Nouriel Roubini of the New York University's Stern School of Business, who, in 12 steps, outlines how the losses of the American financial system will grow to more than $1 trillion - that's one million times $1 million. That amount is equal to all the assets of all American banks.
Every day now, thousands of people all over the U.S. and Great Britain are walking away from their homes - simply mailing their house keys to the banks - as housing bailout plans fail.
With unemployment growing, the next phase will hit commercial real estate making the financial institutions the unwilling owners not only of quickly depreciating houses, but also of empty strip malls and even larger shopping centres.
The next domino to fall will be credit card defaults, and after that... who knows? There are so many exotic funds out there, with trillions of dollars in paper - or rather computer-screen money - all carrying assorted acronyms, and all about to disintegrate into nothingness. Over the next couple of years, scores of banks that have thrived on these devices, based on quickly disappearing equities, will fail.
The most frightening forecast so far comes from the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB), available for 200 euros - about $300 - for 16 issues annually. Its prediction is quite specific.
Where my warnings never spelled out an exact date, this think tank has it pegged precisely.
(Excerpt) Read more at intelligencer.ca ...
How can our economy be weak?
Let’s send more jobs to other countries. Quick!
I don’t agree with this editorial, but if no one gets a handle on the debt crisis soon, what this editorial predicts is quite feasible.
of course it will collapse. how do you expect them to introduct the amero currency?
We’re probably at the peak of the doom and gloom cycle in the media. People are starting to predict a new great depression when we aren’t even in a recession yet. I remember these Chicken Little types from the “Asian economic crisis” back in the late 90s.
What exactly, in your opinion, will turn things around?
Our trade deficit?
Our balance of payments deficit?
Deindustrialization?
Devaluing the dollar?
What??
got a link for that?
good to know...I know there will be a hard time for us.
Does anyone else find it strange that so many people seem to want the US economy to collapse? Perhaps they don’t realize how much damage it will do to other countries, but maybe I’m being naive.
The federal gubmint confiscates and spends over $3 trillion every year. That's three times one million times $1 million.
There is no good way to put it.
The United States is the largest consumer of foreign-made products, especially China and Japan. If the U.S. collapses, they lose their biggest market, threatening their own economies. So out of self-interest, they will help prop us up. Meanwhile, the government and business community here hopefully starts to put its fiscal house in order.
It would sure be nice, if it weren’t just Democrats talking about tackling these issues.
The GOP is locked in a zombie like “free-trade” trance.
“Free trade...”
“Free trade...”
“Free trade...”
As we send more jobs, more money and more talent, to our enemies. Every day.
“Free trade...”
“Free trade...”
Global Dramaism
If we collapse then the rest of the world is royally screwed. China has no one to export their crap to and when you look at their overheated economy that sucker will crash hard, demand for oil screws the middle east and will likely case a government or two to go under, Europe will experience extreme pain, Russia will see it’s cash flow massively crimped which means real problems for them....
“The United States is the largest consumer of foreign-made products, especially China and Japan. If the U.S. collapses, they lose their biggest market, threatening their own economies. So out of self-interest, they will help prop us up.”
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That’s exactly what people thought about Japan, in the late 1930’s.
(exactly)
The Canadians have actually been hurt by the falling U.S. dollar. We sneeze and they catch a cold.
Some people will lose their homes, some banks will go bust, some investors will lose money. Life goes on.
The US is exporting more and more stuff so you can save the Buchanenomics. I have never seen economic protectionism solve anything. I guess when we shut off our markets no one else will follow suit.
The rats of course! They have some marvelous plans:
- Staggering tax increases for the rich
- Entitlements everywhere
- Acceleration of no-energy policy
- Unions for all
- Health care for none
- Fewer commuting miles for all
- Trial lawyers unlimited
- Open borders with no more illegal immigration
Do you think these policies can trigger a depression?
No use fretting, as soon as a Dim is elected, it will rain puppies! Everyday. For the next 8 years.
“Let’s send more jobs to other countries. Quick!”
That will continue to happen in spite of the outlook on our economy. Industrial CEOs have no loyalty and responsibility toward their country but only their stockholders. They pay his salary and the man has got to eat, doesn’t he?
That is unless it was their interest all along in seeing us go down...
I predict the best economy in decades by the end of this year... Why?
The same reason I predicted this would be the coldest year... liberals are always wrong.
What Modican said.
They are called “gold cockroaches”
US importers are complaining through their media sponsorships that the Canadian currency increase has hurt them. So they’ve essentially pegged it by hook, by crook, and by scaring investors away. Most US importers of Canadian products have nowhere else to get them (freight fuel costs and other costs).
The increase in exports is a positive, but only a mild one. We still run up a huge trade deficit. But that could be a plus if the nations who depend on American consumption decide to bail out our market.
It’s pretty sad when that is what we’ve been reduced to.
The GEAB is from europe2020.org
http://www.europe2020.org/?lang=en
Here is the article
Global systemic crisis / September 2008 - Phase of collapse of US real economy
Public announcement GEAB N°22 (February 16, 2008)
16/02/2008
http://www.europe2020.org/spip.php?article527⟨=en
Reading through their literature at a glance suggests that they are on the straight and level but from a European perspective, but not particularly anti-Atlantic alliance.
Here is their take on the future of study abroad University degrees, which is very interesting itself. Probably worth a posting on FR as a separate thread.
http://www.europe2020.org/spip.php?article524⟨=en
Dear America,
Please choose a Democrat in the Fall elections so we don’t have to keep trying to sabotage you economy.
Your friends,
European elite
The amount of government spending the past 6 years hasn’t hurt the economy.
Misleading alarmism on several points: 1) the default rate of mortgages is still not unduly high; 2) banks only hold a fraction of the sub-prime instruments that are in trouble (they are widely held); 3) we are still quite below the level of losses reached during the Savings and Loan debacle of some years ago.
In the Great Depression, the rate of unemployment reached around 20% and the rate of home foreclosure reached around 50%.
Late last week, Bill Gross of Pimco was interviewed on CNBC. His firm is buying packages of CDOs to include in their bond mutual funds. That would not happen if our economy was headed the wrong way.
In my local area, one of the title companies had their first profitable January in many years. It was due to a wave of re-fis. This runs highly contrary to the Doom Narrative.
>> No use fretting, as soon as a Dim is elected, it will rain puppies!
Dealers of Socialism.
This editorial is from a foreign business publication, not a domestic one which seeks to aid Democrats.
>> Deindustrialization?
Big issue right there.
Be sure to thank a Democrat when it happens.
The costs of Liberalism have been put off on to later generations for 50+ years. And WE are that later generation.
The bill is now payable in full, while the sheeple are convinced to demand even MORE socialism...
Like where we stop certain turban-wearing countries from sucking up all the worlds’ wealth through highway-robbery petro prices?
It is NOT the “Free Trade”.
It’s the inability to compete that is being driven by the Democrat’s Socialistic policies.
Over-Taxation, Over-Unionization, Over-Regulation, Inane Enviro rules, and UNLIMITED CIVIL LIABILITY have out-forced much of our economy, for good.
30% of the worlds consumption and 1/2 the worlds capital is right here in the good 'ol USA.
And, Globull warming will cause all cities on both coasts to be wiped out as the polar ice melts and the oceans rise by 20 feet.
Calling OwlGore: you have competition for the all-time "Chicken Little Award."
Yikes!
Huh?
The world thought that Japan was the world’s largest consumer of foreign goods in the 1930’s?
Really?
If we really needed to save our *sses, even Dems and Republicans could agree to do something like this.
I agree that liberals have made it far more difficult for America to compete.
However, conservatives have at the same time meekly permitted a potential enemy to present itself as a “path of least resistance” in the face of those difficulties, and shipped our once-mighty American industrial base to a communist nation.
Since when, did taking the easy way out, become a conservative quality?
And when, did the solution, become blaming liberals?
Obama. Obama will turn it around. After all, he promises HOPE!
“Huh?
The world thought that Japan was the world’s largest consumer of foreign goods in the 1930’s?”
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Sorry I was not clear.
Many Americans in the late 1930’s, watching Japan become more militant, concluded (correctly) it would be against Japan’s economic interests to attack America.
Therefore, went that logic, Japan would not.
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