Posted on 03/10/2008 8:53:06 AM PDT by AllseeingEye33
McCain Can Carry the South by Martha Zoller (more by this author) Posted 03/10/2008 ET Updated 03/10/2008 ET
“Daddy was a veteran, a southern democrat. They oughta get a rich man to vote like that.” -- Song of the South, Performed by Alabama
Ever since The Great Depression, the South has been trying to gain respect from the rest of the country. In every presidential elections since 1968, the winning candidate carried the Old South, and in 2008, John McCain must do so if he is going to win the White House. McCain came south last week to begin to shore up his support in the most conservative part of the country.
The need for McCain to be successful in the South doesn’t have anything to do with perceptions of Southern politics. Former UN Ambassador and Civil Rights leader Andrew Young said it was “desegregation and air conditioning” that brought back the South. He was right. For the last 40 years on average for every person that moves out of the South, 6 people move in. The Old South is more cosmopolitan and diverse than it has ever been and it shows in the politics. Our part of the country has been the place you have to win to win the presidency.
In Atlanta last week, McCain was able to rally the list of prominent Georgia Republicans to his cause. Governor Sonny Perdue endorsed him. Both Perdue and Lt. Governor Casey Cagle headlined a fundraiser with Senator McCain. (Georgia has just been ranked 7th in the nation in efficiency of government and Governor Perdue is being whispered as a possible running mate for Senator McCain.)
Georgia is arguably the most conservative state in the country by virtue of being the only state in the “slaughter of 2006” to add to its Republican majority. If McCain can win over Georgians, then he’ll do fine in the rest of the South.
Ultimately, McCain will likely win the South. We are pro-military and have many military bases throughout the region. All that plays in McCain’s favor. The economy will not be as big a factor in this region because since it has low union membership, there are actually new plants being built and new jobs being created. We just won’t be hit as hard as the major metropolitan areas if the economy heads into a recession.
McCain acknowledges that the economy is the big issue right now. “I think it’s pretty obvious the economy is on most people’s minds now and is clearly the greatest challenge we face; a subset of that is health care,” McCain said in Friday in Atlanta. Another subset of the problems in the economy is energy policy and the cost of it.
John McCain is the only person still in the race who is talking seriously about energy policy. However, in the drumbeat of the mainstream media, it gets no coverage. This week he addressed this issue by saying, “My friends, 400 billion dollars a year, now, we are sending to oil-producing countries, many of them don’t like us very much. Some of that money ends up in the hands of terrorist organizations….Nuclear power works. The United States Navy has sailed ships around the world for 60 years with nuclear power, and we’ve never had an accident….I’d love to tell you that the price of oil’s going to go down someday. The only way the price of oil is going to come down is it we become oil independent,” said John McCain in Texas last week.
If you are keeping score, McCain wins the national security voters and the economy voters in the South and that leaves one key group, the values voters. Can John McCain, a clearly faithful but reserved man, reach the values voters in the South as Mike Huckabee did?
This part of Senator McCain’s record is “iffy.” McCain has a mixed record on values issues. He’s clearly pro-life but he opposes right-to-life groups and their right to speech (under McCain-Feingold) such as the Wisconsin Right to Life. My guess is he’s a social conservative personally but when it comes to legislation on these issues, he’s not committed. It will be Governor Huckabee’s role in this time between achieving the necessary number of delegates and McCain’s coronation as the nominee to deliver the Values Voters and to school Senator McCain in the more comfortable discussion of these issues.
On the biggest domestic issue of our time, illegal immigration, he’s now singing the song of the Secure the Borders First crowd -- about 80% of the American people -- but he doesn’t seem to embrace it. Last week, 10 of his colleagues in the Senate introduced new legislation to define this position and to give McCain a place to go legislatively between the June 2007 defeat of McCain-Kennedy Immigration Bill and the November 2008 election. We shall see where he leads on this in the next few months. No one believes these bills will get to a debate, much less a vote but it will allow McCain to work on the right side of the issue for the American people.
The final score for McCain at this point in the South, he wins it. Ultimately, for most Southerners -- where even most of the Democrats have voted for Republican presidents -- he’s better than the alternative and if he makes his major issues fighting terrorism, freeing the economy from taxes and over regulation, smaller government, energy independence and life -- he wins the South and that is a big step to winning The White House.
McCain can win this thing. I have serious doubts that Obama-rama ding dong or that man in the pants suit can carry any red states, and McCain can compete for the blue ones too.
Dixie ping
We’ll see.
the south should be iron clad for McCain. It is OH, VA, IA, NM, CO that I worry about. If the south is in play late in the race, he is serious trouble.
I find a bit of confusion in your post. The South cannot be iron clad for McCain if Virginia is something you worry about. Virginia is most definitely, South.
Dixie Ping - thanks Kalee.
The South wont be in play. Mc Cain will carry every southern state. As far as the states you worry about, if Obama is the Dem. candidate, Mc Cain wins every one of those. Hillary would make a better contest for them.
That’s my opinion of McQueeg winning at all.
Here in South Carolina, it is possible that Lindsey “Light in the Loafers” Graham will be an albatross around McStain’s neck.
Hope so, anyway.
And what exactly does that mean? Drill here? I don't think so. Switch to grain based fuel? And make grain based food products unaffordable. I mean unless there is a practical alternative for heating and powering the internal combustion engine , this is nothing but empty rhetoric.
I trust south’ners to smell a RAT when they see one; and to do the moral thing and vote 3rd party or write-in.
We’re not known for rewarding turncoats...
Most FREEPERS I talk to around here do not find this to be a good thing. lol. (I am from Pennsylvania, but just read so many saying those dang northerners are ruining the South. lol).
For all those voting for this back-stabbing POS on the “most important” issue of the war, I give you his OWN WORDS;
“McCain acknowledges that the economy is the big issue right now. “I think it’s pretty obvious the economy is on most people’s minds now and is clearly the greatest challenge we face; a subset of that is health care,” McCain said in Friday in Atlanta. Another subset of the problems in the economy is energy policy and the cost of it.”
Not even you “hero” thinks that the war is the most important issue.
I look around at my choices and ask “is this it? Is this what America has come to. You read about it in other countries but...
If the economy is the main issue, McCain should pick Romney as his VP.
Oh yea. That would cinch a no vote for me for sure.
I despise McBoob and Mitts’ conversion to conservatism came a little late for my tastes but if Mitt were the VP....I would actually think about considering to try to maybe vote for the ticket.
If he picked my first choice as a running mate I would have to think long and hard before voting no.
McCain can win the South.
Grass is trending green.
Any pub who cannot win the South is gone in 60 seconds flat.
Come on, tell me news I can use.
The entire NE with the exception of two or three electoral votes is solid blue, as is California, Oregon, and Washington.
What swing states that have been trending blue can McCain win?
Lets see what he is going to do in the MidWest and SW states, along with Ohio.
Unfortunately, that seems to be the case. It seems it’ll take a RAT to wake up the conservatives and start pushing back against the RINO’s of the RNC
If Hillary is nominated, she gets all of the aforementioned states outside the south, along with Colorado.
When faced with the prospect of Hitlery or Obama being president, the southern republican voters will come out, and they will come out very strong. So will the swing voters in the republican favor as well.
I’ve already accepted the fact that McCain is the republican nominee, and while he wasn’t my choice, I now look forward to his VP and cabninet choices to get a better picture of what the full package will be.
And for the coming weeks, we get to see Hitlery and Obama tearing each other apart. You can’t buy that type of comedy.
Right or wrong my concerns are more with Mitt’s base (not you CC). That said, McCain’s VP will make a difference. If he was smart, if the Republican Party was smart...they would put every one of the one’s that ran against McCain on his ticket. An administration with all of them including Ron Paul would unite and build a strong leadership. Unfortunately the weakest link would be at the top but it’s usually a strong team that makes a good leader anyway.
If winning the south is a concern, why would McCain add the one major candidate who did worse in the south than he did? As President, McCain would have a whole team of economic advisors, why does he need to add Romney as a de facto economic advisor in the VP slot? Other than his checkbook, Mitt Romney adds nothing to the Republican ticket headed by McCain.
I don’t have a problem voting 3rd party but for who? No one has stepped up. We need someone that can win.
Well heck. If it’s already been decided, why vote?
These are mere predictions. My record, however, is far superior to that of Dick Morris.
Dick Morris is usually someone that is very accurate:’)
Then I guess I am responsible for 24 people moving southward. 5 years ago our family (of 4) moved from Baton Rouge, LA to Pennsylvania. They practically paid us to rent the U-haul.
I’ve been looking at McCain’s options.
I believe it will come down to Romney or the gov from South Carolina.
“I believe it will come down to Romney or the gov from South Carolina.”
I think given that McBoob’s knowledge of the economy can be carried around in a thimble, he will pick Mitt.
Dicky predicted the GOP winning the Senate overwhelmingly in 2000, winning the house and Senate in 2006. Hillary losing in 2000. Giuliani vs. Hillary in 2008, etc.
Exactly. You just need to know how to read him. He’s saying Hillary is toast now. Watch out.
Virginia has been damaged by Northerners reoccupying the NE counties.
Rick Perry will be so disappointed.
McCain will carry Dixie. Most of us know we have no choice even if we’re mad about it. His family has strong Mississippi historical connections but his anti-South spewtalk sure doesn’t endear him to Southern conservatives.
Damn shame that is.
No WarDsddy. I do have a choice. I do not have to vote for him. It’s sad that he only has around 10% likeability score on the FR poll. If that other 70% would stand up and say no we are not going to do this, things would change. Until then , being scared will keep out all the Duncan Hunters and leave us with what we have now.IMO
I understand but I am not willing to fall on my sword with Obama the radical or Hillary the angry as alternatives.
Evan Bayh or some lightweight lefty maybe but these two are serious trouble.
McCain sucks, we lost for a variety of reasons....mainly due to the machinations of GOP elders...many of whom now surround McCain’s campaign.
I fear Cindy that we no longer have the numbers as serious conservatives to muster what we would like baring an exceptional candidate in a limited field.
Who McCain picks as VP is paramount.
That has very little to do with why GOP wins in the Deep South. They win there(here) because of how whites overwhelmingly vote. Whites vote that way because of shared traditional values and fears.
It always amuses me how little the media or Hollywood understands Southerners.
I agree about the VP. I won’t fall on my sword though. If I fall, it will be while fighting.
Virginia is heavy military...McCain will win. New Mexico and Colorado are taylor made McCain states as well.
Iowa, Ohio and West Virginia will be realy problems. Florida could be iffy, although it does seem to be getting redder.
No, he can’t.
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