Perhaps The Climate Change Models Are Wrong

National Post ^ | 2008-03-24 | Lorne Gunter

[Omedalus]

I showed this to a warmist. He said that the reason for the cooling was all the glacial melt runoff due to warming. He cited his glass of tea after the ice melts.

Yes, there are common warmist memes, made famous by the movie Day After Tomorrow, that enable them to use cooling temperatures as evidence of global warming.

The problem with this particular idea is that it still implies a net increase in temperature. Glacial runoff will buffer a trend of warmer oceans, but it won't stop it or reverse it.

The problem with the tea analogy is that the cup of hot tea and the cube of cold ice have never been in a steady-state equilibrium with one another. In other words, nobody plopped a cold ice-sheet onto an otherwise hot ocean one day - rather, the ice sheet and the ocean have coexisted for millions of years. Their temperature difference is perpetually driven by solar input. The cup of tea has no energy being input into it. By contrast, the ocean is perpetually being kept from freezing thanks to the warming effects of the Sun; if it wasn't for the Sun, the whole planet would be a block of 10-kelvin ice. It's only near the poles that this warming effect is insufficient to keep the water liquid.

So, you can explain to your warmist friend that the ice-cube-in-the-cup-of-tea analogy is weak. A more apropos analogy would be putting the cup of tea in a freezer, near the little lamp that lights the freezer up so you can see which flavor of ice cream you're about to eat. In this analogy, the warmth of the lamp keeps the little cup of tea from completely freezing, so the tea stays liquid; take the lamp away and the tea will quickly turn to ice in the cold darkness of freezer-space. With the lamp there, the tea stays mostly liquid, but perhaps a thin layer of frost forms along the rim of the teacup.

Now, if you increase the brightness of the lamp, some of that frost will melt, yes... but the reason it melts is because the temperature of the cup has shifted upwards. The frost melts now in places where it was cold enough to stay solid before; the reason it starts to melt is that the cup is now warmer as a whole.

So the point is, if your tea is getting colder, it ain't because your tea is getting warmer.

[burster]

except that is a cycle 23 spot. Still no real cycle 24 spots.

[denydenydeny]

So why are some scientists now beginning to question the buoys' findings?

Because the buoys disgree with their computer models.

The obvious metaphor is the 2004 election, when the real election had to be wrong because the results conflicted with "respected firms'" exit polling data.

[Myrddin]

except that is a cycle 23 spot. Still no real cycle 24 spots.

Thanks. I just took note of the number of spots, but didn't see a reference on the magnetic polarity.

[qam1]

I think the AGW alarmists will very quickly fix this problem. Mann and his cohorts will either just reprogram the buggers to get the result they want, or they will ‘adjust’ the raw data to ‘smooth’ the numbers. These people have no shame, it seems the more the evidnece disproves their goofy theories, the louder they become

I'm afraid so, they just fudged the numbers on the Sea Surface temps from last month.

Here are the NOAA's Ocean Temperature Anomaly for the months of January & Febuary 2008

Jan.  2008--> 0.2480
Feb. 2008--> 0.2927

They claim that the ocean temperature anomaly increased in Febuary 2008

However here are snapshots from their own SST daily tracking website from the beginning, middle and end of Febuary 2008.

Watch the Indian Ocean and to a lesser extent the southern Atlantic and southern Pacific

As you can see the Indian Ocean massively cooled and the southern Atlantic and Pacific also showed some cooling. There was no significant warming anywhere. Yet at the end of the month they still claimed the temperature increased.

Looks like the data has been "Hansenized"

Apparently no matter how cold it gets, we can expect the data to be altered to show global warming is still going on. Even though we will grow colder they will continually say higher and higher records are being set.

[steelyourfaith]

 

Compuer climate models are a classic case of garbage in/garbage out.

 

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[The Great RJ]

Let them run their models with historic climate data and see how well they work in comparison to what actually was recorded. I’m am certain their predictions will in no way resemble actual observed conditions.

[GOPJ]

You’re probably right - I suspect that’s a variation of what they’ve been doing all along...

[Catholic Canadian]

I showed this to a warmist. He said that the reason for the cooling was all the glacial melt runoff due to warming. He cited his glass of tea after the ice melts.

Well, I'm glad your warmist friend was there to set you straight.

[Ditto]

"Looks like the data has been "Hansenized"

Looking at those maps, I am curious to the procedure they use to take a potential infinite number of temperature samples over all of the Earth's oceans and somehow conjure up one "Global" ocean temperature.

Admittedly, I don't know the details of how they would accomplish such a thing. But to my intuitive way of thinking, the idea of developing a single measure of a heterogeneous and highly dynamic target such as the Earth will result in a rather meaningless statistic.

[zot]

If the data doesn’t support your theory, ignore the data :)

Kill the messengers. But in this case, you gotta wait for them to surface.

[zot]

All boats and ships, from the smallest dingy to the largest supertanker be docked and dismantled. This will lead to the dropping of the level of the oceans and thus keep the world from flooding.

Makes a more sense than most of the proposed solutions to global warming.

[r-q-tek86]

ping

[Straight Vermonter]

It is a cycle 23 sunspot. We are still waiting for 24 to begin.

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/03/23/new-sunspot-but-still-a-solar-cycle-23-spot/

[AFPhys]

The new sunspots are cycle 23 ... near the equator of the sun, not high latitude.

[PeterFinn]

Who wants to bet that Dr. Josh Willis from JPL will be looking for a new job before the end of the month?

[blue7053]

I seem to remember something like this happened in the past.
We are all aware that JPL sent a mission to Mars with the landing instruction in feet and meters? Remember the bounce? There was also a group of buoys that recorded their data in a series beginning with 1 rather than the more common computer first digit; 0. So, all the temperature recordings began with the ‘second’ series's 1000 feet deep (something like that) rather than the surface temperature which was not recorded.

2. Where precisely are the recordings? The 2007 arctic melt (14,000,000 sq. km of ice melted to 4,000,000 sq km) was accompanied by an exceptional Westerly wind which drove much of the floating ice into the North Atlantic.

3. Given an inordinate amount of fresh, cold, surface water, the question suggests; what precisely is the form of the temperatures?

4. Considering the reverse side of the process: abnormal warming produces diminished ground water and runoff, accompanied by drought, accompanied by increased water impoundment for cities drinking water, 6(?) of the 10(?) largest rivers no longer reach the sea: could these combined produce lesser warm water runoff to the sea and thereby produce colder water by virtue of less warm water?