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Clinton's convention strategy in doubt
Politico-Yahoo ^ | March 31st, 2008 | David Paul Kuhn

Posted on 03/31/2008 8:44:47 PM PDT by The_Republican

Her only hope of getting the key committee to vote out a “majority report” supporting her position rests on her ability to persuade an as-yet-undetermined number of the 25 members appointed to the committee by party Chairman Howard Dean to cast votes for her position.

The DNC’s Credentials Committee consists of 144 pledged members (Florida and Michigan are not included) plus the 25 party leaders and elected officials appointed by Dean. The 25 Dean appointees include a mix of Dean loyalists, Obama supporters and at least several individuals who have endorsed Clinton.

"If the formal process of seating a delegation cannot be resolved," a Clinton senior adviser said, "those 25 will be important."

The analysis was conducted by Matt Seyfang, an attorney and a former delegate counter for past Democratic presidential candidates including Bill Clinton in 1992 to Bill Bradley in 2000. According to his projections and a calculation of the number of committee seats that each candidate is entitled to based on their proportion to the statewide vote or the relevant caucus rules, Obama holds roughly 65 seats and Clinton 56. There are slightly more than 23 seats still to be decided in the remaining contests.

Seyfang’s findings reveal that Clinton faces an uphill battle if, as she signaled on Saturday, her campaign decides to take her fight to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations to the Credentials Committee.

“I have no intention of stopping until we finish what we started and until we see what happens in the next 10 contests and until we resolve Florida and Michigan,” she told the Washington Post. “And if we don't resolve it, we'll resolve it at the convention — that's what credentials committees are for.”

While it is mathematically impossible for Clinton to win a majority without winning over a number of Dean’s appointees, it is also highly unlikely that Barack Obama will have enough votes to capture a majority without doing the same. He would need to sweep the remaining contests by runaway margins to win the roughly 20 seats necessary to gain a majority.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: clinton; convention; delegate; strategy
Dean appointees would probably lean against Klinton....!
1 posted on 03/31/2008 8:44:49 PM PDT by The_Republican
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To: The_Republican

YoBama will give the beast the VP


2 posted on 03/31/2008 8:47:54 PM PDT by lookout88 (Combat search and rescue officer's dad.)
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To: The_Republican

You know, it would really be nice if these “analysts” actually read the DNC bylaws.

It takes only 20% of the members of credentials committee to submit a minority report.

Hillary clearly has 20% of the committee members.

So unless she withdraws early, there will be two reports forwarded to the floor by the credentials committee.

And it’s a majority vote on the floor that determines which will be accepted.


3 posted on 03/31/2008 9:02:47 PM PDT by jdege
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To: lookout88

I think that bridge has been burned......around 3:00am in one cold Texas night.......


4 posted on 03/31/2008 9:03:23 PM PDT by The_Republican (Ovaries of the World Unite! Rush, Laura, Ann, Greta - Time for the Ovulation!)
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To: The_Republican
Clinton's convention strategy in doubt

I have little doubt that blackmail will be an important part of it. In addition, no doubt some delegates who are pet owners will find that they unexpectedly have something in common with Kathleen Willey (what happened to that cat, anyway?)...

5 posted on 03/31/2008 9:07:55 PM PDT by Zeppo (Every mighty mild... seventies child... Beats me (Metric - Combat Baby))
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To: The_Republican

C***!


6 posted on 03/31/2008 9:16:05 PM PDT by Wally_Kalbacken (Seldom right but never in doubt)
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To: The_Republican

A bridge means nothing to the marxists.


7 posted on 03/31/2008 9:21:13 PM PDT by lookout88 (Combat search and rescue officer's dad.)
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To: The_Republican
My take on her convention strategy.
8 posted on 03/31/2008 9:23:20 PM PDT by TexasNative2000 (Is this tagline governed by McCain-Feingold?)
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To: The_Republican

Easy strategy.

All the way until convention:

1. Dig up as much dirt on Obama and Michelle, and don’t let prior dirt stories die.

2. If outrageous claims are made, state your people never said the outrageous claim, but continue to repeat what the outrageous claim was.

3. Dig up as much dirt on superdelegates as possible. Make it clear to them you ‘need their support’ if they want Clinton’s ‘support’.

4. Continue to paint Barack as he truly is, hateful of his country, hateful of his white heritage, hateful of white America, can’t even respect the pledge.

During Convention:

1. Continue having staff/third party people discuss Barack’s negatives in every media encounter. Issue any mistakes by small press releases only. Never mention them except to say that they did correct themselves and appropriate action was taken so it won’t happen again.

2. Arm twist superdelegates with continued veiled blackmail.

3. Always talk as if she is clearly in front and winning, regardless of what really is going on.


9 posted on 03/31/2008 9:29:28 PM PDT by Secret Agent Man (I'd like to tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.)
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To: jdege
You know, it would really be nice if these “analysts” actually read the DNC bylaws.

Why should they do something the DNC hasn't done?

Seriously, that's an excellent post. I think the only way she withdraws early is if she runs out of money. If she makes it to the convention, she'll create exactly what the Dems fear.

There are two other things scaring the Dems now. The first is that they ARE the party of identity politics, and they have two protected classes going at each other. The second thing that's hurting them is that they always want to change the rules until they win. Their refusal to adhere to one set of agreed upon rules ensures that one of their protected classes will be alienated.

Dean is making it worse by insisting that they settle on a candidate early, d#mn the primaries that are still out there.

As much as I hate to admit it, Pelosi has shown more intelligence than any of the others. She keeps saying "Let it play out, and unite behind the winner."

10 posted on 03/31/2008 9:42:31 PM PDT by Richard Kimball (We're all criminals. They just haven't figured out what some of us have done yet.)
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To: Richard Kimball
As much as I hate to admit it, Pelosi has shown more intelligence than any of the others. She keeps saying "Let it play out, and unite behind the winner."

Hmmmmmm...
Except I recently heard Pelosi say there will be only 1 Dem winner, the presidential nominee, way before the DNC convention.

11 posted on 03/31/2008 9:59:15 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel

Yeah, I don't know why, but there's something about her that creeps me out.

12 posted on 03/31/2008 10:10:32 PM PDT by Richard Kimball (We're all criminals. They just haven't figured out what some of us have done yet.)
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To: Richard Kimball

I just spit beer all over my screen. Thanks a lot.


13 posted on 03/31/2008 10:11:25 PM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: Billthedrill; Flora McDonald

Flora, ping to 13. Bill, you know the scary thing is I DIDN’T touch her eyebrows.


14 posted on 03/31/2008 10:18:19 PM PDT by Richard Kimball (We're all criminals. They just haven't figured out what some of us have done yet.)
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To: Billthedrill
Photobucket
15 posted on 03/31/2008 10:26:29 PM PDT by Cobra64 (www.BulletBras.net)
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To: Richard Kimball

16 posted on 03/31/2008 10:27:48 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Cobra64
Holy crap - "Phone home" or else...
17 posted on 03/31/2008 10:28:03 PM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: Richard Kimball

I would hit it.


18 posted on 04/01/2008 12:22:10 AM PDT by The_Republican (Ovaries of the World Unite! Rush, Laura, Ann, Greta - Time for the Ovulation!)
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To: Red Steel

Hey Red,

Great pic. It reminded me of something from my distant past:
Follow this link (I’m not good enough with HTML to post it). ;)

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0708458/

LOL!


19 posted on 04/01/2008 1:00:02 PM PDT by mywholebodyisaweapon
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