Posted on 04/05/2008 3:17:30 AM PDT by Clive
What the hell is going on in Basra? According to the major media outlets in New York and London, the answer is: a major defeat for U.S. and British policy in Iraq. This is how the well-regarded Michael Gordon of The New York Times reported the story:
"…Mr. Maliki overestimated his military's abilities and underestimated the scale of the resistance. The Iraqi prime minister also displayed an impulsive leadership style that did not give his forces or that of his most powerful allies, the American and British military, time to prepare.
" 'He went in with a stick and he poked a hornet's nest, and the resistance he got was a little bit more than he bargained for,' said one official in the multinational force in Baghdad who requested anonymity. 'They went in with 70% of a plan. Sometimes that's enough. This time it wasn't.' "
And here is the British journalist Robert Fox, whose reporting often reflects the thinking of the United Kingdom's defence establishment.
"[Moqtada al-] Sadr didn't start the latest round of fighting in Basra. The ill-advised and strategically challenged prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, did.
"He gambled that he had enough muscle in the Iraqi army to drive Sadr's militia from running Basra. So far, he has gambled and lost; and now there must be serious doubts about whether he can continue in office and pretend to be the prime minister of all Iraq and all Iraqis for much longer."
These grim assessments are backed by some objective facts.
On Thursday, the Iraqi Defence Ministry acknowledged that more than 1,000 government soldiers --including dozens of officers, two of them of senior field grade-- had deserted during the Basra fight.
As I write, the fighting in Basra has been suspended by a truce that some claim was brokered by Iran. Hundreds of Iraqis have been killed. The Sadrist militias continue to function. So: a disaster?
Those negative judgments are not however shared by writers closer to the action. One of the outstanding native Iraqi observers of events in-country is Nibras Kazimi, a young democracy activist without sectarian bias. Here is what he had to say in his important blog, Talismangate.blogspot.com about the character of the Sadr militias in Basra.
"The Mahdi Army in Basra is only an army in the sense that 'soldiers' and 'capos' are rankings in the Cosa Nostra. These organized crime cartels serve many purposes, chief among which is getting rich quick. There's ample opportunity for mischief in Basra and plenty to pilfer and smuggle: oil, arms, drugs and whatever happens to fall off a truck leaving the port, after the truck itself had been 're-routed.' "
As the Sadrists have evolved into a crime syndicate, their leaders have lost much of their former command of their supporters. Moqtada al-Sadr himself lives in Iran -- a strange exile for a cleric who used to rail against the Persian origins of his more religiously prestigious rival, the Ayatollah Sistani. As for Sadr's followers, Kazimi reports, "affluence has made them slothful and soft. Sadrist leaders today are bejeweled with agate rings, Rolexes and precious worry beads, and sport Turkish-tailored suits. They ride around in the latest-model armoured SUVs and have taken their second (and third and fourth and … ) wives -- in some cases the ultimate Iraqi Shia male status symbol, a Lebanese Shia trophy wife. …These were the same angry, dejected men that one would meet in 2003 wearing polyester dishdashas with sweat-stained towels around their necks."
And in the battle for Basra, these gangsters seem to have got the worst of it. It was the Mahdi Army that asked for a truce from the government. The Mahdi Army seems to have hoped that government action in Basra would trigger uprisings elsewhere in Iraq: those did not occur.
The big news from Basra seems to be this: Just as the Maliki government secured peace in western Iraq by striking deals with the local Sunni tribes, so it now seems to have bought itself a constituency in the South -- enough of a constituency anyway that it could stage and wage major combat operations without much assistance from the United States.
That's more evidence that the central government is gaining strength. Yet more evidence comes from what is reported as the major piece of bad news from Basra, the role of the Iranians. Rather than sustain Sadrist resistance to the central government, the Iranians seem to have decided to back the same horse previously backed by the Americans.
The Iranian decision not to sustain the Sadrists is even more arresting because it follows on the heels of last month's Iraqi very public rebuff of an offer of economic aid and cooperation from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
As always, Iraq is full of mysteries. But here's the best key I have seen to understand this latest puzzle, offered by a reader of Jules Crittenden's blog who identifies himself only as "Major John":
"The fight up North is the fight to run al-Qaeda out of Iraq. The fight down South is the fight to see which way Iraq will go once al-Qaeda is beaten."
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blog:
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/04/a_look_at_operation_1.php
“A look at Operation Knights’ Assault”
By BILL ROGGIO
April 4, 2008 4:09 PM
#
Previously...
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2008/04/iraqi_military_conti.php
“Iraqi military continues operations in Basrah”
By BILL ROGGIO
April 2, 2008 1:00 PM
Ping.
" 'He went in with a stick and he poked a hornet's nest, and the resistance he got was a little bit more than he bargained for,' said one official in the multinational force in Baghdad who requested anonymity. 'They went in with 70% of a plan. Sometimes that's enough. This time it wasn't.' "
So this is why Mookie wanted a cease-fire? "Hi, your army is loosing so lets broker peace? The only people that beg for a cease fire are either: A) getting their asses kick on the field, or B) getting their political asses kicked at home! Mookie fights for 3 days, looses 2-3% of his fighters, is declared the winner and demands a cease fire when he could supposedly defeat the Iraqi government!
What crack-pipe are reporters huffin on?
http://www.truthusa.com/IRAN.html
#
and now back to Al Sadr...
blog:
http://www.thememriblog.org/iran/blog_personal/en/6541.htm
(”Source: Tabnak, Iran, March 30, 2008”)
“Tension Between Muqtada Al-Sadr, Iranians”
Posted at: 2008-03-31
What appears to be happening is a major effort by a number of mainstream outfits with left wing bloglings in tow to completely discredit the Maliki regime. McClatchy has been particularly egregious, with lead articles that could have been written by the Iranian press office.
Not to be lost in all this is the fact that the Iraqi government is sending its forces in to kill Shia militia, something many of the crtitics (including legitimate ones) have questioned whether Maliki had to the stones to do. How can this be anything but progress, regardless of flaws in the execution of the operation? And at least according to Roggio, the militia were taking substantial casualties.
Basra has largely been under control of the competing militias since it was turned over by the Brits in December. Yet two days into the operation, McClatchy et al. were declaring it a massive defeat based on reports that the government “only” controlled a quarter of Basra. How can retaking a quarter of a major metro area in a few days be considered a failure?
It may take several weeks to get sorted out exactly what the impact of all this is. But the offensive here in America is obviously a major push to sell it all as a defeat in time for the returning Congress to once again try to force an American surrender in Iraq.
I strongly agree with recommendations for the Long War Journal and Talisman. Also helpful on this particular issue is http://tank.nationalreview.com/
She wants him to report the lefty kook version of events?
What else did anyone expect from the NYTs and the Socialist British “press” but LIES?
Iraq could be lost the same way that Viet Nam was lost, not in theatre but rather in the western media and the US Congress.
Basra is a quagmire I tell ya. /sarcasm
We all can be grateful that the NYTimes, McClatchley, BBC and the London Times etc do not control quite ALL news outlets in 2008. They are trying to give us a 40th anniversary replay of the reporting of the Tet Offensive in Vietnam - US military success reported as defeat.
Good News ping
“What crack-pipe are reporters huffin on?”
The same one they always smoke from... packed with ANTI-AMERICAN herbs.
LLS
The blatancy of the lies told by the media regarding this particular battle has exceeded the BS they've been passing off all throughout the war.
I am so tired of the daily crap we hear from her, and her counterpart in the senate, being dutifully reported by the MSM. I know opposition in the hallmark of politics, but there simply has to be a limit to how personal the opposition can be allowed to become.
She and her ilk on the Left are not qualified to even sit in the same room as a man like Patreus, let alone act like they have superiority over him in some manner.
I know I would get a reprimand from my preschool or kindergarten teacher for saying so, but I think they are stupid and I hate them and what they stand for and try to do to our country's interests!
Or would there have been an outcry against prior restraint and an attempt to bias the testimony of a witness?
The US Congress is a quagmire /not sarcasm
The DemComs have one playbook: Vietnam. This is the Tet Offensive move, where, if everyone plays along and nobody snitches by telling the truth, victory can be perceived as defeat. The question now, as then, is, "Will everyone play along as instructed, or will one of you spoil the game?"
The main lesson here seems to be that British strategy in Basra, from the start, was slow surrender, which left a power vacuum for a Shiite mafia to fill. Now it has to be smashed at some expense for Iraq to develop its oil market. But I'm quite optimistic, because Petraeus's playbook works.
The Dems have been apoplectic at the success of the surge, so they're grasping at Basra-Tet as their last hope. If the war is humming along, continuing to make good progress by November, the Dems really are toast. It won't be an issue, and that means the only issue will be their Marxism.
Bush is weak.
“Rather than sustain Sadrist resistance to the central government, the Iranians seem to have decided to back the same horse previously backed by the Americans.”
Not sure what he’s getting at there, but the Iranians will back the horse that furthers their own ends - and a peaceful, successful, democratic Iraq is not in the plans.
This traitorous witch can be reached at 202-225-4965. I think comments about her despicable anti-military BS are warranted.
Thoughts?
There fixed the first paragraph.
RATS have one playbook: Vietnam. This is the Tet Offensive move, where, if everyone plays along and nobody snitches by telling the truth, victory can be perceived as defeat. The question now, as then, is, "Will everyone play along as instructed, or will one of you spoil the game?"
As usual, by the way, people like this blogger and Michael Yon do a far better job of reporting actual events than the idiots who purport to be "newsmen."
Well Put!
The filthy anti-American fifth-column media and propagandists are swarming and swirling inside the ever-widening information vacuum created by the President and his incredibly moronic and detached advisers.
We are so screwed....even if things are going good.
Leni
It's been 14 years now of nothing but lies from the Left and the MSM, all the while accusing George Bush of being the one that lies! The Democrats open their mouth and spew forth anything they think will back their cause or further their goals, regardless of the truth. And the MSM dutifully plays them day and night to the reading, listening and viewing public.
I remember being driven absolutely crazy by the fact that Newt and them weren't going on the offensive to stop the lying before it became so unchallenged that it was accepted by the publicly educated voter that it was truth. And W has been no better at all. He has simply failed to talk to the American people and explain what's going on. A single line is a speech 7 years ago about how long the WOT would go on and then all we hear from the MSM and Left is how we've failed.
I am beginning to think conservatives are unable to multi-task! We can do one, two if we really try, things at a time and that's it. When we are attacked on a dozen or more fronts at the same time we just pull the old possum trick and play dead. When that happens we end up like the only possums most people ever see, road kill along the highway.
Much of it I fear has to do with true conservatives being too gently to start and finish a fight. Oh we bluster some times, but like the lion in the Wizard of Oz as soon as someone speaks up we fall over our tales trying to get away.
Now that I think of it, Newt and the powers that be NEVER came up with a creditable plan to handle the constant sewer of leftist propaganda that's been pouring over us for almost 15 years now. Thanks for pointing that out!
Bump & Bump
You know the history well. The only thing I take issue with you is that it has been since the 60s so...much more than 15 years. It is easy to beat these people. Sun-Su had a good premise..."Be Strong where your enemy is weak"...we should use their arrogance and contempt for America against them. Use their class warfare tactics to our advantage. We should go on the offense. Attack and vilify their ideals. Stand up for minorities by attacking their enslavement by the Dims. Attack their clueless talking heads. When they are on their heels hit em again! Relentlessly attack their patriotism. And don't back down. When they whine...Are you attacking my patriotism?...try this as a response...Yes you d@mn weasel! Aiding our enemies is not patriotic!!. Hurting our people is not patriotic!! How about hitting them for their duplicity in the oil price spikes? They are responsible for the high oil prices AND THE REDUCTION in your family's standard of living. Ahh...it would be so easy. Where is Lee Atwater when you need him? But you got to stand for something and be willing to be hated. If you just don't know how, hire Ann Coulter to teach you. And NEVER, NEVER let them talk over you or shout you down. Add ridicule and innuendo to your arsenal and don't be afraid to use them. I am looking forward to forming up a conservative party or enhancing and developing the one that already exists. Sorry to rant. I am so frustrated by our leadership. We can win this easily but we have to fight and conservatives have to work together.
The press love to point out that Iraq is not as stable as, let’s say, Switzerland. Iraq, at peace or in war, remains a third world craphole. The Brits and Americans can do nothing to change that. Only the Iraqis can pull themsleves out of their mess, and over several decades, just like other select countries have slowly done.
It's no wonder they are such slaves to the education and teacher unions. If kids came out of high school with a decent education and understanding of how our government really works they would never be elected to another office.
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