Skip to comments.Talk About Bad Forecasts!
Posted on 04/07/2008 11:15:48 AM PDT by holymoly
Joe DAleo posted this chart on icecap.us a while back and I wanted to make sure you see it. Click on the chart for full size.
This is the latest decadal plot from February 1998 to February 2008 of global temperatures from Satellite (UAH MSU lower troposphere) (blue) and land and ocean variance adjusted surface (Hadley CRU T3v) (rose) plotted with Scripps monthly CO2 from Mauna Loa (green).
You can easily see the downward trend in temperatures over the past decade and the increase in CO2 over the same time period of about 6%. A decade definitely is not a long enough period to determine a climate trend but it is clear that the correlation between CO2 and temperature over the past 10 years is nearly zero. Not one computer model has forecast this temperature trend correctly.
It seems likely from the graph on this page that La Nina may actually continue into next winter. Also, look at the colder than normal temperatures (blue areas) now being forecast over North and South America from the same model for the remainder of this year. I guess there is no guarantee the model will be correct this time when it has been wrong before but I am glad I did not make the statement contained in this article. Why doesnt anyone ever hold these people accountable?
Also, did you see the comments made by Ted Turner recently? Id be happy to make a bet with him that temperatures will not be 8 degrees warmer in 30 to 40 years but it is not likely hell still be around make good on that bet.
Ted thinks we're all going to turn into Morlocks.
This is all a bunch of scientific MUMBO JUMBO intended on keeping our eyes away from the Divinity of the Religion of Global Warming, taxation be upon us!
The source is WOOD TV? Sounds like a porno station.
It’s not MUMBO JUMBO!!! It’s Garbage in, GOSPEL OUT!!!
Turner could place the funds in escrow right now, and you could write him out a promissory note.
LOL,now that right there is funny!
What do you think of my tagline?
Eight degrees hotter?
That means instead of -12 some mornings last winter, it would only have been -4.
Yeah, I could see how that would cause food to not grow and turn us into cannibals.
Well, this seems encouraging on the face of it. Just remember though, minorities and children are still warming.
It’s people! Soylent Green is people!
Oh gee wiz!
How am I supposed to ping you (er race steely and xcamel) to a perfectly good global warming thread when ya already started it???????
Yah tryin’ to confuse me now? Right? Come on.
Pretty good,but I liked the one about the wombat better (I read that story when it was posted, it was a classic).
Let me get this right.......
We are basing Global CO2 on measurements taken DOWNWIND of one of the most active volcanos on earth?
Kileaua blows 8500 TONS of CO2 per day into the atmosphere!!
I left a bucket under a dripping faucet one day and through the night; by morning the level in the bucket had stabilized.
[Truthfully, for the past year and one half I’ve have put off replacing the packing in the gland of the stop gate valve for my water heater because I have no way to shut off the main to allow me to disassemble the brass valve; about every 3 weeks I have to empty a 39 ounce (3lb) coffee can that sets on the heater.]
It has become a round-to-it.
[I know how many ounces are in 3 pound cans)
You may have a point; from a .gov website:
[A major challenge in mapping a volcano is to reconstruct reliably what happened in the past. Geologists employ a variety of different techniques to determine the ages of past volcanic events.
The most familiar method is radiocarbon dating, also known as Carbon-14. Charcoal is produced when plant material is buried by lava flows. Living plants and animals take in carbon from the air, most of which is the stable isotope C-12 and a tiny amount of the unstable isotope C-14.
The amount of C-14 relative to C-12 is nearly constant in the atmosphere. When a plant dies, the intake of carbon stops. The amount of stable C-12 stays the same in the charcoal, but the amount of unstable C-14 decreases with time. The amount of C-14 that remains relative to the amount of C-12 is a measure of when the plant died, indicating the age of the lava flow that burned it.
Another method, called exposure-age dating, also uses the ratio of specific isotopes to measure the age of the ground’s surface. A simple way to think of exposure-age dating is to look at the color of lava flows in your neighborhood. We all recognize that young lava flows are black in color. But exposure to the sun eventually causes weathering and a color change. An analogy is that when we go down to the beach and lay out in the sun, the amount of change in skin color correlates to the amount of time we are exposed to the sun.
Similarly, the surface of a lava flow changes in color from black to gray, to brown, and tan, then orange, and finally red. This color progression can be used as a general guide to the age of the lava. Therefore, if you see a dark brown flow next to a tan colored one you can be reasonably sure that the dark brown flow is younger and has weathered less than the tan one.
Scientists have discovered ways to use exposure to cosmic rays in a more quantitative way. We use different ratios of several elements to more accurately calculate the age of a surface where we are not able to find charcoal. There are several different environments where finding charcoal is very difficult. This would include the summit of Mauna Loa or, in a desert region like Miloli’i, due to a lack of vegetation.
It is in environments like these that the quantitative exposure-age technique works best. This technique is most useful if the rocks are always exposed to the cosmic rays and has the right mineralogic composition. If obstacles interfere with the cosmic rays, such as soil cover, thick vegetation or shielding created by adjacent rocks, the consequence is an imprecise or inaccurate result.
How does this technique work? Cosmic rays are constantly bombarding rocks on the Earth’s surface. This barrage produces special isotopes, which act as clocks that measure the length of time since they were created. As a result, the number of special isotopes in a rock correlates to the length of time the surface of the rock was exposed to the sun-hence, exposure-age dating. Under favorable conditions this technique can be used to measure the length of time volcanic ejecta was deposited on a surface.
Recently, we used this technique to date explosive ejecta around the summit of Mauna Loa. The ejecta sit on top of lava flows at the summit. Age determinations, based on exposure-age dating techniques, range from 500 to 900 years before present for large blocks on the surface. These ages are consistent with radiocarbon ages obtained from summit lava that flowed down slope into vegetated areas, where the ages of the flows obtained from Carbon-14 range from 1,000 to 1,500 years before present.
The key to the future is to know the past. We are employing a number of techniques to unlock secrets of volcanism in Hawaii. Many people come to Hawaii to get a tan. Who would have thought that “tanning” of flows could be used to determine lava flow ages?
Eruptive activity at Pu`u `O`o continues. On clear nights, glow is visible from several vents within the crater. Lava is fed through the PKK lava tube from its source on the southwest flank of Pu`u `O`o to the ocean. About 1 kilometer south of Pu`u `O`o, the Campout flow branches off from the PKK tube. The PKK and Campout tubes feed two widely separated ocean entries, at East Lae`apuki and East Ka`ili`ili, respectively. Both entries are located inside Hawaii Volcanoes National Park.
In the last week, intermittent breakouts from the Campout tube have occurred on the slope of Pulama pali and on the coastal plain.
Access to the sea cliff near the ocean entries is closed, due to significant hazards. The surrounding area, however, is open. If you visit the eruption site, check with the rangers for current updates, and remember to carry lots of water when venturing out onto the flow field.
There were six earthquakes beneath Hawai`i Island reported felt within the past week. Three are aftershocks of the October 15 magnitude-6.7 earthquake. A magnitude-4.6 aftershock occurred at 2:22 a.m. H.s.t. on Sunday, December 3, and was located 20 km (13 miles) west of Waikoloa Village at a depth of 14.1 km (8.8 miles). A magnitude-2.7 earthquake at 2:41 p.m. was located 34 km (21 miles) west-northwest of Waikoloa Village and a magnitude-2.5 earthquake at 4:14 p.m. was located 19 km (12 miles) southwest of Waikoloa Village. Elsewhere, a magnitude-3.0 earthquake occurred at 11:42 p.m. on Friday, December 1, and was located 12 km (7 miles) east-southeast of Honoka`a at a depth of 12 km (7 miles). The smallest event reported felt was a magnitude-1.6 earthquake on November 30 at 9:15 p.m. 14 km (8 miles) southeast of Waimea at a depth of 12 km (7.5 miles). On Kilauea Volcano a magnitude-2.1 earthquake on Thursday, November 30, occurred 18 km (9 miles) south-southwest of the summit at a depth of 6.2 km (3.9 miles).
Mauna Loa is not erupting. During the past week, earthquake activity remained low beneath the volcano’s summit (one earthquake was located). Extension of distances between locations spanning the summit, indicating inflation, continues at slow rates.]
Visit our Web site (hvo.wr.usgs.gov) for daily Kilauea eruption updates and nearly real-time Hawai`i earthquake information.
They are not measuring the different isotopes. It’s not that precise.
It would be like stating the concentration of fecal coliform bacteria in the waters of Lake Michigan based on readings taken 20 feet away fron the main sewage discharge outlet from the City of Chicago.
Grand Rapids Michigan, one time center of lumber and furniture.
This station takes its name from that activity and goes way back to the pioneering days of radio.
Chicago's discharges it's sewage into the Chicago river which years ago was diverted to flow to the Mississippi.
OK, I'm picky, so sue me.
Who would have thought? Here in Alaska, rivers run into the large bodies of water. My bad!