The SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated "discouraged workers" defined away during the Clinton Administration added to the existing BLS estimates of level U-6 unemployment.
Posted on 04/08/2008 11:25:08 AM PDT by kellynla
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Some members of the Federal Reserve are worried about the possibility of a "severe and protracted downturn" in the U.S. economy, according to the minutes of the central bank's latest minutes released Tuesday.
The minutes show that some Fed policymakers are concerned that the problems in the "housing sector had deepened and that considerable uncertainty surrounded the outlook for housing."
The Fed cut its key federal funds rate by three-quarters of a point at the March 18 meeting, its sixth rate cut since September. The Fed has been cutting rates in an effort to keep the U.S. economy from falling into recession following the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market and resulting credit crunch.
But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress last week that a "recession is possible," although he said he believed the economy is still growing slowly.
Despite the growing belief that the economy is already in recession, the presidents of the Dallas and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks voted against cutting rates as aggressively, a rare amount of dissent on the central bank.
(Excerpt) Read more at money.cnn.com ...
The Fed must be looking through the same glasses I have lately...
Let burn some of our food while we’re at it. i,e, biofuels.
Yeah, that extra cost at the store shelves helps out loads doesn’t it?
The layoffs, 1/4 million in a quarter, will not help slow the slowing.
I invite them to come to Michigan to observe their policies in action - The ‘Severe’ Recession has been here, statewide, for about 1 1/2 years. And Detroit? Forget about it!
I honestly hope we’re not going into a deep, protracted recession or worse. But, given just how dependent US economic activity is, upon consumer spending, it seems like it will be difficult to avoid. Also, so many people have gone into business for themselves, and stated income loans are extremely hard to find now, if not out of existence entirely. Those stated loans were heavily abused, but people with variable incomes, commissioned salespeople, freelancers and independent contractors, were the original intended market for that loan product. Without it, it’s going to be rough going for them to refi or buy a house, and possibly to obtain other types of financing.
We just signed a 1 Billion dollar contract. What glasses do you wear?
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080408/latu047a.html?.v=1
90% of this is media hype, glass half empty anaysis, and the typical doom and gloom the media and especially CNN likes.
“The layoffs, 1/4 million in a quarter, will not help slow the slowing.”
That’s strange, all the illegals in my town seem to be fully employed.
So what is going to happen when we get to 0.00% interest rate????
Moved out of Brighton about 12 years ago and my in-laws were furious about it, they said that Michigan would always be orders of magnitudes better than here.
Seems their house has been on the market for two years and their store is failing, I might let them sleep in the spare room while they get their stuff together again if they admit I was right.
Noticeably fewer here.
One that looks at different markets than you do. Medical is going great, automotive however...
1/4 million is a real number from Dept of Labor.
Sorry to be so realistic about what I'm seeing through absolutely clear glasses.
Umm...I think you forgot a sarcasm tag. How does your wife feel about your attitude towards your in-laws?
Yes I did, but it is a bitter spot for my wife and I both over how they reacted when we chose to move 333 miles away from them.
If anything she is happier than I am to be out of Michigan now, and she is the one who points out how bad Michigan is doing to them when they talk.
They actually told my wife she was welcome to leave me and come back to them if she ever wanted to, so maybe the sarcastic part isn’t all that far from the truth after all.
If 90% is media hype why am I paying a lot more at the grocery store and at the gas pump?
There are always sectors or markets on the decline, even when the general trend line is up.
Recession is by definition two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Anyone who states we are in a recession does not know the meaning of what that term means. Words have meaning, despite what the media thinks.
You'd never know it because there are no ‘For Sale’ signs and the grounds and exteriors are all impeccable.
You will pay more every year, it’s call inflation, get use to it, that is if you were born post 1900.
It’s anybody’s guess about illegals. They don’t get counted either arriving in the workforce or departing.
I think we have been in a Recession for awhile. The statistics will eventually catch up.
That said, we have had a good run, perhaps too good. I think ‘Stag-flation’ is in the cards and I hope it doesn't get beyond the traditional meaning of that term although I wouldn't be at all surprised if it did get much more severe.
I do love my in-laws dearly, but whenever I say anything critical, no matter how mild or inocuous I think the comment, I'm likely to hear:
YOU HATE MY FAMILY!!!!!!!
I greatly miss my father- and mother-in-law, both of whom passed away during the past two years. I'll never forget how happy my FIL would look when he'd be cooking for his grandkids. They'd sit at the table, and they carried on the sweetest of conversations.
It’s time we taxpayers put the government into a recession instead of them doing it to us.
The only way to stop their debt creating, wasteful pork barrel, ear marking spending, is to STOP paying income taxes.
Just say no on April 15th.
I’m curious as to how many “mortgage crises” victims are not going to pay or even file this year?
I heard on the news the other night that we are now up to 15 to 16% of workers that do not file. I’m guessing it will soon be 20% and rising.
I may just join them this year.
They no longer deserve a dime of mine.
The SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated "discouraged workers" defined away during the Clinton Administration added to the existing BLS estimates of level U-6 unemployment.
October 2011: "Financial stocks led the stock market sharply higher today after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate by fifty basis points, to negative fifteen percent. At its peak following the announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up more than 100 points. However, the rally was short-lived, and stocks ended the day where they started. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained two points to close at fifteen."
Those stats that show 12% unemployment and the like always crack me up.
I mean, there should be a lot of people living in cardboard boxes around here somewhere...
The only economic indicator I needed: This is an election year for President. The Democrats are not the party in power. The Democrats want to be the party in power, and the media, being good socialists, will see that all the grim speculation is repeated early and often.
I think the ‘Real’ unemployment rate is much higher than 5% but not 15%
You will never achieve 0% unemployment because even when structural and cyclical (Which we face today a growth in) is negligible you still have frictional unemployment. A normal baseline of 4.5~5% is about as good as it gets, and even just six months ago it was inflationary pressure we were threatened by.
I got along just fine renting for 15 years. I am sure the folks you mentioned can do the same.
0.00% Interest rate - does that mean the NAV on my bond fund will go approach infinity?
10-20% per year isn’t normal levels of inflation.
No kidding?? What was their first clue???
Bad news sells. Media MO.
Bad news helps make more bad news by creating panic. Economic reality - Human behavior.
Some politicians will themselves quickly jump on the bandwagon of any theme, even to the detriment of national security or our nations economic development, as long as it benefits them.
Yes, you’re right. The Democrats even though in control of Congress more or less, will attempt to portray this as a presidential issue so they can exploit it in the Nov 2008 elections.
Same thing they have been doing print more money, that is not worth paying interest on.
http://www.bls.gov/CPI/ (Of course this is not as credible as “shadowstats.com”)
They are, but today it is called HUD housing and fema trailers.
if the economy turns worse, who knows...we may all be living with dads and moms and sistes and brothers and inlaws...like they used to in the "old" days..
Exactly. LOL.
If unemployment rates need to be adjusted upward to reflect the number of "discouraged workers" out there, then they should also be adjusted downward to reflect all the workers out there who are collecting unemployment checks even though they are perfectly capable of finding a job even in a lousy job market.
I'm sure many of us know people who are "unemployed" right now but who will somehow -- magically! -- find a job right around the time their unemployment benefits expire.
No - it requires me to review what I have spent on various items each month for the past several years.
It isn’t creative math that leads to that number it is real world empirical data.
That's exactly right.
Maybe some of you out there have noticed that we've been mired in a "housing crisis" for as long as I can remember. When the housing market is strong, the "housing crisis" involves all those people who can't afford to buy a home. When the housing market collapses, the "housing crisis" affects all those people whose homes are declining in value.
Why doesn't anyone point out that "Crisis" #1 is solved when "Crisis" #2 hits, and vice versa?
1. There's still a grocery store.
2. There's still a gas pump.
3. You aren't stealing your groceries and your gasoline . . . you're paying for them.
Not really. Hand the bank 2 years of federal tax returns and it's no longer a "stated income" loan.
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