Posted on 04/08/2008 3:18:06 PM PDT by halo66
Beginning tomorrow over Texas and Oklahoma and especially on Thursday over Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee, the setup (at this point) looks like a large outbreak of tornadoes, some large. This pattern has many similarities to the 1974 Super Outbreak with the exception of the jet stream, which will be nosing in from the NW US while the 1974 outbreak had a jet stream that was positioned over the desert southwest. Also, with this event, severe storms will likely last all night and well into Friday morning. The SPC already has a Moderate Risk out for Thursday, but will likely upgrade to a High Risk during the revised outlook tomorrow. The only fly in the ointment will be cloud debris left over from the previous nights thunderstorms and the timing of all elements to come together perfectly, which is rare. For sure, the region will see all modes of severe weather. See below NWS and AccuWeather discussions (note: the all caps are from the NWS)
Paducah, KY NWS
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THINGS REALLY GET INTERESTING AS THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH OUR CWA. IF FORECAST PARAMETERS PAN OUT AS CURRENT MODELS INDICATE...OUR CWA IS IN FOR A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS...AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LONG TRACK TORNADOES. THE TIME FRAME OF GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM 00Z FRIDAY (7 PM THURSDAY) TO 08-09Z (3-5 AM FRIDAY MORNING). THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK DURING THESE TIMES.
Memphis, TN NWS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH. LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF BRINGING VERY WARM UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA... SBCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS/WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...60 TO 80 KTS AT 500 MB AND 60 KTS+ AT 850 MB. THEY INDICATE VERY STRONG CAPPING AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING PRE-SURFACE TROUGH...SO NOT CONFIDENT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF A MAIN SQUALL LINE. REGARDLESS...AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SOME HAIL...AND PERHAPS SOME TORNADOES. IF SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE...THEY COULD PRODUCE LONG LIVED TORNADOES. SPC/S MODERATE RISK HANDLES THIS RISK WELL. THE BEST TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE AFTER 4 PM CDT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
From AccuWeather
...Margusity is concerned that the widespread, long-lived tornadoes this week could rival the so-called "Super Tuesday" outbreak that began on February 5 and continued into the next day. Eighty-two confirmed tornadoes were blamed for at least 58 deaths, hundreds of injuries and widespread damage across four states.
The trigger for the explosion of dangerous weather will be the collision of cold air behind the storms and warm moist air flowing out of the Gulf of Mexico. According to the Southwest Regional News story, the outbreak late on Wednesday will erupt from West Texas to southwestern Missouri. During the day on Thursday, severe storms will stretch from the Arklatex to the mid-Mississippi Valley.
By Thursday night, the intense thunderstorms will reach the Tennessee and Ohio valleys, before there will be the potential on Friday for severe thunderstorms along the southern edge of Lake Erie.
The increasingly potent storms this week will spark widespread long-lived tornadoes that could threaten lives and property. Anyone along the track of the storms should review severe weather safety rules, monitor local broadcast outlets or weather radios, especially at night, and be prepared to take precautionary measures at a moment's notice.
I live in S.W. Missoui, will be watchful of this one.
Ironically, this is the week and anniversaries of the Wichita Falls' F-5 (1964) and the F-4 (1979). Historically this is a bad week for tornadoes.
Thanks for the post. Will be following this as we live in the bull’s eye.
as long as it's only a "possible" tornado. Those aren't nearly as bad as the real thing.
“I live in S.W. Missoui, will be watchful of this one.”
Me too. Lots of folks rebuilding from the last one that went through my neck of the woods.
I was working at a motel during the 1974 “super outbreak” of tornadoes. Luckily my area was spared, but I’ll never forget the ominous skies that I saw that evening. The sky really was green, and the low-hanging black clouds looked as if you could reach your hand up into them and pull it out soaking wet. I’ve never seen the sky like that since.
You do that,we’re not up there,though we have property SW of Stockton. Stay Alert
My daughter, 5 1/2 months pregnant, just sold her condo in Hawaii and is flying into St Louis on Thursday. I told her she is moving from heaven to he—.Do you think that they will even be able to land in st Louis on Thursday?
It’s hard to say it this point. They will likely have delays at some point, though.
Bad stuff should stay far south of St. Louis.
We got a heads up from the local Red Cross about this today. They asked us to be prepared in case there is help needed.
Green skies are a major warning sign. I hope to never see skies like that again! Big bump to this thread.
I would not be so sure about that. Check out the below excerpt from the St Louis NWS for Thursday. Time will tell...be safe!
...GIVEN FCST HODOGRAPHS...50-70KTS 0-6KM SHEAR AND +30KTS 0-1KM
SHEAR...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WL BE
POSSIBLE BEFORE BCMG LINEAR AS THE DRY LINE SURGES EWD THURS NGT.
UPR 30S TO 40 K INDICES WUD ALSO SUGGEST EFFICIENT RA PRODUCERS AND
ADDED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
Check out the temperature differential between Dallas/Ft. Worth area (~80 oF), to the OK panhandle (41 oF): 
Below is smack dab in the middle of that temp gradient at this very moment: 
Below is valid 1800 hrs (Central Daylight Time): 
april 10th ‘79 in Wichita Falls Tx saw an f3 tear a new one in town.......horrible stuff
I believe I spoke (wrote) a little hasty. St. Louis may very well get hit also.
Watch this one closely.
More cold global warming?
When do we get the warm global warming?
Prayers for all who are in harm’s way.
One violent tornado reported in Texas and another is about to form from the same supercell.
Another thread here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1999046/posts
Read of reports of damage in Breckenridge, TX.
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