Posted on 04/09/2008 6:37:14 PM PDT by blam
'Well Above-average' Hurricane Season Forecast For 2008
Hurricane Katrina. The Colorado State University team's forecast now anticipates 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Eight of the storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those eight, four are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes. (Credit: NOAA)
ScienceDaily (Apr. 10, 2008) — The Colorado State University forecast team upgraded its early season forecast today from the Bahamas Weather Conference, saying the U.S. Atlantic basin will likely experience a well above-average hurricane season.
"Current oceanic and atmospheric trends indicate that we will likely have an active Atlantic basin hurricane season," said William Gray, who is beginning his 25th year forecasting hurricanes at Colorado State University.
The team's forecast now anticipates 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Eight of the storms are predicted to become hurricanes, and of those eight, four are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes (Saffir/Simpson category 3-4-5) with sustained winds of 111 mph or greater. Long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per year.
"Based on our latest forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," said Phil Klotzbach of the Colorado State hurricane forecast team. "We are calling for a very active hurricane season this year, but not as active as the 2004 and 2005 seasons."
Current conditions in the Atlantic basin are quite favorable for an active hurricane season. The current sea surface temperature pattern in the Atlantic - prevalent in most years since 1995 - is a pattern typically observed before very active seasons. Warm sea surface temperatures are likely to continue being present in the tropical and North Atlantic during 2008 because of a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Also, the currently observed weak Azores High will likely promote weaker-than-normal trade winds over the next few months enhancing warm SST anomalies in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
Additionally, the team expects neutral or weak La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific, which, combined with a predicted warm north and tropical Atlantic, is a recipe for enhanced Atlantic basin hurricane activity. These factors are similar to conditions that occurred during the 1950, 1989, 1999, and 2000 seasons. The average of these four seasons had well above-average activity, and Klotzbach and Gray predict the 2008 season will have activity in line with the average of these four years.
The hurricane forecast team predicts tropical cyclone activity in 2008 will be 160 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2005 witnessed tropical cyclone activity that was about 275 percent of the average season.
The hurricane forecast team reiterated its probabilities for a major hurricane making landfall on U.S. soil:
A 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2008 (the long-term average probability is 52 percent). A 45 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula (the long-term average is 31 percent) A 44 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville (the long-term average is 30 percent). The team also predicted above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.
"The United States was quite fortunate over the last two years in that we had only one hurricane landfall (Humberto - 2007)," Klotzbach said. "None of the four major hurricanes that formed in 2006 and 2007 made U.S. landfall."
The Colorado State hurricane forecast team has cautioned against reading too much into the hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 when Florida and the Gulf Coast were ravaged by four landfalling hurricanes each year. Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne caused devastating damage in 2004 followed by Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005.
"The activity of these two years was unusual, but within the natural bounds of hurricane variation," Gray said.
Probabilities of tropical storm-force, hurricane-force and intense hurricane-force winds occurring at specific locations along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts within a variety of time periods are listed on the forecast team's Landfall Probability Web site. The site provides U.S. landfall probabilities for 11 regions, 55 sub-regions and 205 individual counties along the U.S. coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine. The Web site, available to the public at http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane, is the first publicly accessible Internet tool that adjusts landfall probabilities for regions, sub-regions and counties based on the current climate and its projected effects on the upcoming hurricane season. Klotzbach and Gray update the site regularly with assistance from the GeoGraphics Laboratory at Bridgewater State College in Massachusetts.
The hurricane team's forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions - such as El Nino, sea surface temperatures and sea level pressures - that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.
The team will issue seasonal updates of its 2008 Atlantic basin hurricane activity forecast on June 3, Aug. 5, Sept. 2 and Oct. 1. The August, September and October forecasts will include separate forecasts for each of those months.
Tropical Cyclone Forecast for 2008
(1950-2000 Averages in parenthesis)
Named Storms 15 (9.6)*
Named Storm Days 80 (49.1)
Hurricanes 8 (5.9)
Hurricane Days 40 (24.5)
Intense Hurricanes 4 (2.3)
Intense Hurricane Days 9 (5.0)
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity 160 (100%)
* Numbers in ( ) represent average year totals based on 1950-2000 data.
The entire report is available on the Web at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu.
Adapted from materials provided by Colorado State University.
Ping.
uh-huh.
I want that job: Never right and still have a job!
I will believe it when I see it
Well, they are bound to get it right at some point!
Great...look for even higher gas prices this summer.....
I suppose that if they predict “well-above average hurricane season” enough years in a row, eventually they’ll be right.
Which of course, will prove that Al Gore is right about global warming.
Right??
Same forcast as the last two years. One day they will get it right and can ask Congress for more money to fight global warming.
I hear their supposely going to be 4.00 by this summer...ughhhhh
what global warming lol
Based on the lack of storms in the South Pacific tropic zone this past hurricane season, I have to disagree with these “weather” experts. The seas are unusually cool, and the temperature differences that drive the storms are not typical of conditions that have generated large numbers of hurricane size storms in the past.
I mean, it was so cool this year that many tropical fruit trees didn’t even bother fruiting.
But my prediction will be 3-5 named storms.
What’s the intrade on hurricanes for this year? :).
My forecast.
16 storms
9 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes
We are in a La Nina phase and it is more favorable for the Atlantic. However, I would not rule out that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) goes into Neutral. Neutral seasons have produced some of the most active seasons on record. 2005, 1995, 1933, and 2004 were all Neutral ENSO seasons.
Just like last year and the year before that, eh?
It’s a shame that these people aren’t funded according to their accuracy.....
bush’s fault.
The Gulf of Mexico and Western Atlantic are unusually warm.
And tropical systems (barotropic) are not driven by frontal temperature differences (baroclinic.)
How did CSU get in the Hurricane predicting business? Seems like a University closer to the ocean would be more qualified/interested.
Well, the last two years they have predicted above average hurricane activity and have bombed out, so I guess the third time is the charm. These people have no shame.
Just in case anybody cares, the William Gray referred to here is a global warming skeptic..
cowabunga dude...
We haven't been fortunate, these guys have just been wrong. To compensate they took to naming thunderstorms last year. This year leave the sprinklers on too long .....
LOL...last year they were forced to name every “sub-tropical storm” with winds over 40 mph...not even a good breeze on the High Plains of Texas.
This prediction guarantees another tranquil season, which would be the third year in a row that the weather guessers have missed their forecasts after missing so badly in the other direction in 2005.
After two remarkably quiet seasons in a row here in the U.S.—Florida’s weather pattern the past week has resembled typical mid-May. We’ll know soon enough whether it is a predictor of a frisky 2008 hurricane season.
Yeah, kinda like Dick Morris. These guys have been saying this for, how many years since Katrina?
The Colorado State Group and the National Hurricane Center forecasters are two entirely different sets of people.
It’s even harder to forecast US landfalls than total Atlantic activity. Don’t confuse the two forecasts.
Thats cute, where did ya find that? lol
Bill Gray has gotten into screaming matches with people at meteorology conferences claiming the high activity in the last couple of decades in the Atlantic was caused by global warming.
2006 & 2007 winter and summer were very dry. This winter and spring has been very wet. We'll see.
You know...if you give the exact same forcast every time, eventually, you will get it right...even a stopped clock...
Again?
Yawn....
I wonder if they will make a midcourse correction again this year?
It’s easy and fun. Are you good in physics and calculus?
Today's forecast includes the statement, "These real-time
operational early April forecasts have not shown forecast
skill over climatology" during the 13-year period 1995-2007.In other words, today's forecast has no skill, and should
merely be viewed as an interesting experimental research
product. I like the fact that they are trying to make useful
seasonal hurricane forecasts, but we should wait until
their June 3 forecast before putting faith in their 2008
hurricane season forecasts.
He's also Mr. Hurricane.
OK. I'll take back that yawn.
Where can I stock up on gas?
It will be worse than the devastation of the last two years as the predicted horde of storms ravaged our defenseless coasts.
If you predict above average storm activity every year, some year you might be right and that is supposed to justify and vindicate all the years where you are wrong.
I love seeing the weather people on the TV getting all breathless about “activity” in the Atlantic. Sometimes it seems to be that a breeze was reported in the Azores.
My neighbor plays the same set of numbers in the lottery every week. He won $3.50 with it once recently. He said it showed it’s about to “come up big.”
[Named Storms 15 (9.6)*
Named Storm Days 80 (49.1)]
...and we already have the names picked out and there’s nothing you can do about it.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.