Beam me to Planet Gore !
Posted on 04/12/2008 2:07:41 PM PDT by Sub-Driver
April 12, 2008, 9:16 am Hurricane Expert Reassesses Climate Link
By Andrew C. Revkin
A fresh study by a leading hurricane researcher has raised new questions about how hurricane strength and frequency might, or might not, be influenced by global warming. Eric Berger of the Houston Chronicle nicely summarized the research on Friday. Kerry EmanuelKerry Emanuel of M.I.T. (Jodi Hilton for The New York Times)
The research is important because the lead author is Kerry Emanuel, the M.I.T. climate scientist who in the 1980’s foresaw a rise in hurricane intensity in a human-warmed world and in 2005, just a few weeks before Hurricane Katrina swamped New Orleans, asserted in a Nature paper that he had found statistical evidence linking rising hurricane energy and warming.
That work was supported by some subsequent studies, but refuted by others. Despite the uncertainty in the science, hurricanes quickly became a potent icon in environmental campaigns, as well as in “An Inconvenient Truth,” the popular climate documentary featuring former Vice President Al Gore. The message was that global warming was no longer a looming issue and was exacting a deadly toll now.
The new study, in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is hardly definitive in its own right, essentially raising more questions than it resolves. But it definitely rolls back his sense of confidence about a recent role for global warming. (The abstract is here. A pdf is downloadable on Dr. Emanuel’s ftp page.)
(Excerpt) Read more at dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com ...
So know it’s official: hurricane strength and intensity may or may not be influenced by global warming, which may or may not exist, and which may or may not be driven by human-generated carbon dioxide.
Glad they cleared that up.
The best line I saw about all of these models is that they can’t even predict the past.
“The research is important because the lead author is Kerry Emanuel, the M.I.T. climate scientist who in the 1980’s foresaw a rise in hurricane intensity in a human-warmed world and in 2005, just a few weeks before Hurricane Katrina swamped New Orleans, asserted in a Nature paper that he had found statistical evidence linking rising hurricane energy and warming.”
However he missed the rest of the conversation.
The models are telling us something quite different from what nature seems to be telling us. There are various interpretations possible, e.g. a) The big increase in hurricane power over the past 30 years or so may not have much to do with global warming, or b) The models are simply not faithfully reproducing what nature is doing. Hard to know which to believe yet.
I think they knew that the “global warming “ connection was in trouble when they had to count a storm in Alaska as a “tropical storm” to keep the numbers up...
Global warming list PING!
I think the real problem is, in addition to the basic ignorance about science in the general public (in the absence of which there would not be such uncritical acceptance of any particular theory), there is also a discomfort with ambiguity. In the history of science there have been long periods in which there was ambiguity or contention on critical issues for a long period of time. That is part of the nature of scientific knowledge. Those who argue that there is anthropomorphic global warming should be allowed to make their arguments as a part of the scientific debate, and likewise those who disagree should also be allowed their 2 cents worth. The fact that there is not a clear winner in terms of competing theories is not something unusual in the history of science, and it is not something that should bother those of us in the lay public.
As my HS Physics teacher used to say (in response to some mind boggling question - Why? in thermodynamics): “because that’s the way she [i.e., the nature of things] goes!”
None. Ever. No once.
And, these 'models' are run millions of times trying. Zip.
Guess what?
Run them BACKWARDS!
They don't work that way either. They can not 'remember' the events that were programed into them.
After a few weeks, they run off into junk. All of them. Always.
Fixed
I agree with that!
These so called “scientists” are exploiting peoples ignorance for their own political agenda. With a “crisis” money will poor in for solutions. The left loves to TAX and reduce your standard of living and they are getting away with it.
There is a reason why the U.S. is ranked 25 or was it 23rd in math and science in industrialized countries. Science and math is a weak area and it shows in what people embrace - “global warming” ... CO2 causing it etc..
Simple minded sod! It's easy to find out, just crank up your model and predict the last 20 or so years and compare that "prediction" to the historical record. My guess is that has already been done and the match was so poor they shoveled a load of manure on top of it to keep anyone from finding out just how badly those models work.
My guess is that the models may be pretty fair, the errors creep in when they establish the boundary conditions. Just picky little things, like assuming that the atmosphere is infinitely thick, homogeneous and isentropic.
Regards,
GtG
Shoot, they cn't even get it right when a storm front is rolling through right now.
I'd like to point out that you should have had one more qualifier. How about the following?
...hurricane strength and intensity may or may not be influenced by global warming, which may or may not exist, and which may or may not be driven increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, which may or may not be influenced by human activites.
That's right, one of the fundamental principles of science is that a hypothesis can not be considered even potentially valid, unless it is consistent with all known facts. This means that it must first accurately predict the past.
Anyone who ever lies about his/her area of study cannot really be a scientist, any more than a child molesting priest can be a man of God.
What we saw last season was an upper level wind pattern that pretty much kept the hurricanes that did develop in the Atlantic from turning north into the United States.
The point is, even if ocean temperatures increase (don't know 2007 for Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico), other phenomena, such as upper level winds may have a greater influence on hurricanes reaching the United States.
Where there fewer typhoons in the Pacific/Indian Oceans last year?
Don’t forget Erin which intensified AFTER it made landfall last year. (petered out right afterward)
thanks.. too hard to do the pings from here in mexico..
Yeah. History matching is usually the sine qua non of modelling.
bump & a ping
Sounds like the Times’ Revkin is hedging his bet.
ABC News on the Hour just said hurricanes will grow in intensity due to Global Warming. Eenie meenie minie moe
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