Posted on 04/15/2008 1:42:41 AM PDT by Mount Athos
China has already overtaken the US as the world's "biggest polluter", a report to be published next month says.
The research suggests the country's greenhouse gas emissions have been underestimated, and probably passed those of the US in 2006-2007.
The University of California team will report their work in the Journal of Environment Economics and Management.
They warn that unchecked future growth will dwarf any emissions cuts made by rich nations under the Kyoto Protocol.
The team admit there is some uncertainty over the date when China may have become the biggest emitter of CO2, as their analysis is based on 2004 data.
Until now it has been generally believed that the US remains "Polluter Number One".
Next month's University of California report warns that unless China radically changes its energy policies, its increases in greenhouse gases will be several times larger than the cuts in emissions being made by rich nations under the Kyoto Protocol.
The researchers say their figures are based on provincial-level data from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency.
They say analysis of the 30 data points is more informative about likely future emissions than national figures in wider use because it allows errors to be tracked more closely.
They believe current computer models substantially underestimate future emissions growth in China.
We are awaiting a formal comment from the UK Chinese Embassy, but Dr Max Auffhammer, the lead researcher, said his projections had been presented widely and no-one had raised a serious complaint.
All those concerned about climate change agree that China's emissions are a problem - including China itself.
But China and many other developing countries struggling to tackle poverty are adamant that any negotiated emissions reductions should not be absolute, but relative to a "business-as-usual" scenario of projected growth.
That is why this study is of more than academic interest.
'Truly shocking'
If it becomes widely accepted that China's future emissions are likely to be much higher than previously estimated, that will have to factored into any future global climate agreement if the Chinese are to be persuaded to take part.
In brief, although this study looks bad for China's reputation, it may be good for China's negotiating position.
The Chinese - and the UN - insist that rich countries with high per capita levels of pollution must cut emissions first, and help poorer countries to invest in clean technology.
America's per capita emissions are five to six times higher than China's, even though China has become the top manufacturing economy.
US emissions are still growing too, though much more slowly.
Dr Auffhammer told BBC News that his projections had made an assumption that the Chinese government's recent aggressive energy efficiency programme would fail, as the previous one had failed badly.
"Our figures for emissions growth are truly shocking," he said.
"But there is no sense pointing a finger at the Chinese. They are trying to pull people out of poverty and they clearly need help.
"The only solution is for a massive transfer of technology and wealth from the West."
He acknowledged that this eventuality was unlikely.
Those scientists aspiring to stabilise global emissions growth before 2020 to prevent what they believe may be irreversible damage to the climate may be wondering how this can possibly be achieved.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2008/04/14/nobel-prize-winning-peacekeeper-asks-un-admit-climate-change-errors
U.S. News and World Report had a small “fact blurb” a few months ago that said the coal seam fires in China that get started and are left to burn (well, I think they’re pretty much impossible to put out actually) create more CO2 emissions than all of the CO2 put out by vehicles AND industry COMBINED in the United States!!
Well, as usual I do a search AFTER I post! I may have miss-stated the U.S. News blurbs. Numerous other online articles mention that the China coal-seam fires put out more CO2 than all the cars and light trucks commbined in the U.S.
And this is bad why? At least they signed up to the Kyoto Protocol and have met all their CO2 emission requirements.
Oh wait, that’s right, they didn’t have any emission requirements. That was one of the reasons the U.S. Senate refused to sign up for the stupid Protocol. Thank you Senators. One of the smartest things they’ve done in the last 20 years.
A buddy of mine goes to someplace in southeast Asia once in a while to do computer classes, like Malaysia or something.
Says that in addition to being inhumanly hot and humid, there is no color - none. Everything is gray from the coal smoke.
We’re talking serious bad s*it here. No doubt China, India, and southeast Asia pollute far more than America.
Centralia has been burning since 1962, so I would say they are near impossible to put out. I think you would have to get on the fire very early to end it. Is a shame to waste all that energy.
and what's behind it.
Yes - the key is getting on them early. I imagine the safety at a Mine in China is pretty slack. The amount of coal seams burning in the U.S. was pretty small compared to China. I did a survey back in college over some burning coal seams in Colorado years ago to try to figure out where the fires had been.
I was at a talk where a guy was up in the tundra of Canada (near the artic circle) and he had photos where the smoke was wafting up over the barren rocky land, other-worldly.
I’m sure Chinese industry fouls the air like nobody ever has since the industrial revolution, but it needs to be repeated that carbon-dioxide isn’t a pollutant! That’s for all you Gore-worshippers, including Chicken Little.
This is old news!!! A Dutch study, last spring, found that China had 8% more greenhouse gas emissions than the USA in 2006. The overriding influence in China is cement manufacturing which produces lotsa’ GHG’s to make the klincker.
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