Posted on 04/15/2008 12:10:58 PM PDT by EternalVigilance
At a time when the top two Democratic presidential candidates are caught up squabbling about who's less bitter than whom, GOP insiders say Sen. John McCain's campaign is quietly prepping itself for non-Democratic bumps in the general election road. Those bumps are likely to come in the form of third party candidates like Alan Keyes and former Rep. Bob Barr.
The aggressive former House Republican, turned Libertarian, Bob Barr is making rumbles about running for president under the Libertarian Party banner. Beloved by some members of the GOP because of his ties to President Ronald Reagan and his leading role in impeaching President Bill Clinton, he's seen as a staunch conservative, albeit one with a fondness for civil liberties.
"Sen. McCain has been doing a very good job of shoring up his conservative support so far, but it's been within the dynamic of a two candidate general election campaign," says Dan Schnur, a Republican strategist who was McCain's communications director during his 2000 race for president. "If somebody like Barr enters the mix, it has the potential to create problems."
Meanwhile, former GOP presidential candidate Alan Keyes officially announced his break with the party Tuesday. He's now running for president as a "genuine conservative" on the Constitution Party ticket. Keyes says McCain has a "liberal track record" and doesn't represent the Republican Party well.
And no one in the McCain camp is soon to forget Ron Paul, who was out-fundraising them by large margins earlier this year-largely via online donations. While Paul has said he isn't leaving the GOP anytime soon, his ability to connect with large segments of the electorate was eye-opening.
Brian Jones, McCain's former campaign communications director who now heads Mercury Public Affairs, says the Arizona senator's "iconoclastic" qualities still often upset the traditional conservative establishment.
And Libertarian leaders already know they hold some cards. "[McCain's] vulnerable, but not just because conservatives may boycott him," says David F. Nolan, founder of the Libertarian party. "His main weakness, in my opinion, is that he's a nasty guy with a strange and checkered past. See: Keating Five, McCain-Feingold, bad record on Second Amendment rights, et cetera."
"It's my belief that McCain is very vulnerable on the right flank," adds Stephen Gordon, a former Libertarian Party political director. "Should both Bob Barr win the Libertarian Party nomination and Alan Keyes win the Constitution Party nomination, two of the three legs of the proverbial GOP stool will simultaneously be kicked very hard in November."
Ardent GOPers and Libertarians say McCain could be most vulnerable to third parties in the Rocky Mountain and western states. They also say small northeastern states with sometimes unpredictable contests, like New Hampshire, could be areas that McCain might suffer losses from third party gains.
Gordon says Barr in particular could do especially well in southern states because of his strong support for the Second Amendment, an area where many conservatives are distrustful of McCain's views. And even weak third party candidates could siphon enough votes in such states to possibly affect the outcome of the general election, notes Schnur.
It's conceivable that McCain could be hurt more by third party challengers than Democrats would be from a candidate like Ralph Nader, who's running under the Green Party ticket once again this year.
"It seems to me, most Democrats have grown fatigued of Nader," says Schnur. "Republicans haven't had to deal with this type of situation for many years."
Despite the challenges third parties might cause for McCain, few GOP strategists predict there will be efforts to keep third parties off the general election ballot in swing states. Such moves, they say, could give third party candidates a bigger megaphone and audience to hear their platforms.
"I think the GOP and McCain should allow people like Barr to be on the ticket," says Jones. "I don't think they should go through a procedural move to take him off. I think that would just enable him to get more free media."
Still, Nolan says he "wouldn't put it past" the GOP to try to keep Barr out of states where his candidacy could swing the outcome for the Democrats, but he says "they won't have much success."
"I suspect McCain will ignore [us] as much as possible," predicts Nolan, "but if the race gets tight in critical swing states, he will probably trot out the ‘a vote for him is a vote for Obama or Hillary' argument."
Alan Keyes/America’s Revival/CP PING!
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Alan Keyes to announce break with GOP in Hazleton, PA
HAZLETON, Penn. — Former Republican presidential candidate Alan Keyes has chosen April 15 to make a major announcement of his intentions, following indications he has broken with the GOP.
A life-long Republican who has increasingly cited the party’s failure to match conservative rhetoric with actual performance in the political arena, Keyes said he will reveal his reasons for departing the GOP at a press conference scheduled for 8:30 pm ET, at the Best Western Genetti Inn in Hazleton, PA.
The event will be video-streamed live at Keyes’ website, http://www.AlanKeyes.com .
Keyes added that he is looking to the Constitution Party as a possible home for his future efforts in politics, including a potential run for president in the 2008 general election.
“No other ‘third party’ is as well-established as the Constitution Party,” said Keyes. “They’ve been around since 1992, and have built a significant grassroots presence among patriotic, Constitution-minded citizens — with a registered membership of over 350,000. Conservatives have a home in the CP that they can find nowhere else, given the decline in the Republican Party’s credibility as a voice and vehicle for conservatism.”
Regarding his potential third-party candidacy for president in the fall, Keyes said, “I believe people deserve a choice. They certainly deserve a conservative choice — something neither John McCain, Hillary Clinton, nor Barack Obama can offer voters. All they can offer is empty promises based on liberal track records.”
Symbolic of Keyes’ break with the Republican Party is a caricature of the GOP logo — upside down — on the front page of his website.
The Constitution Party will hold its nominating convention April 23-26 in Kansas City.
According to Dan Smeriglio, a Keyes supporter who is helping to arrange the event, the former Reagan administration diplomat chose to make his announcement in Hazleton because of the town’s strong stance on illegal immigration.
“I understand a good portion of his speech next week will center on illegal immigration,” Smeriglio said. Smeriglio and a group he represents, Voice of the People USA, have been vocal in opposing illegal immigration since Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta introduced the Illegal Immigration Relief Act in 2006 — thrusting Hazleton into national prominence in the movement to stem illegal immigration.
Keyes — who has a Ph.D. in government from Harvard and wrote his dissertation on constitutional theory — served as Reagan’s Assistant Secretary of State for International Organizations, as well as Ambassador to the United Nations Economic and Social Council, where he represented U.S. interests in the UN General Assembly.
The third party concept is becoming more of a fallacy as the GOP continues its march towards the socialist left by incrementally merging its ideology with the socialist Democrats.
ClintObamaCain must be destroyed.
None of which has a snowballs chance of being elected
Care to tell us who that is?
Let's draft a conservative for a refreshing change to run as our candidate.
Puhleeze Alan Keyes may be an intelligent man, but the dude is from another planet. Maybe the Libertarians can get something out of McCain in promises. Don’t think they should run their own candidate this time.
He’ll do.
Vote for restriction of your Freedom of Speech. Yay McCain-Feingold! Yeah, that’s the ticket! < /sarcasm >
A good man.
Is he available, or staying on the R plantation?
If you right click on the picture then go to “properties” you’ll see that it is Harold Stassen.
From “another planet”? I don’t think so. I think he’s from America, as it should be once again.
http://www.renewamerica.us/archives/transcript.php?id=440
MODERATOR: Ambassador Keyes, tell our listeners in the next few minutes why you are running for the presidency of the United States of America.
KEYES: I’m running for president because I think this republic is collapsing. I think our system of self-government is being replaced by a system in which we will be dominated by foreign powers, by globalist institutions, by self-seeking corporations, instead of having a government of, by, and for the people.
This collapse of our national sovereignty and the sovereignty of our people is taking place because we have abandoned the basic moral principle on which this country was founded: that our rights come from God, and that therefore we must exercise them and apply them with respect for the authority of God.
In every area, we are finding that this retreat from principle is leading to the destruction of innocent life in the womb, the collapse of the family structure, the loss of our self-confidence in the defense of our borders, and finally, a misunderstanding of what the war on terror is about, since our aim must be to defeat the forces that disregard the claims of innocent life, in violation of the fundamental principle on which our country was founded.
And I don’t hear anybody else articulating this vision which makes it clear that we are urgently involved in an effort to save our republic, to save our system of self-government, and that effort especially depends on reasserting our allegiance for the basic founding vision and principles that our Founders put in place for this country.
I’m just sick of all the people dancing around it and acting as if we’re dealing with this issue and that issue and the other issue. There is one issue, and all these other issues are like the fissures and cracks in the wall that bespeak the collapse of the foundations.
It’s time we dealt with the real problem, articulated it with vision, and faced it with moral courage. And that is what my effort is about: to call people together on the common ground of our faith in God and our acceptance of the Declaration’s principles, so that we can once again become a government of, by, and for a people who have reclaimed their active citizenship and reestablished real liberty in this country.
Ah.
That's what we're doing.
ONLY AFTER THE DISSOLUTION OF THE DEMOCRATS, FOLKS!
Suffer through four years of McCain with a destroyed national Democrat party (destruction to follow the convention),
THEN
right flank him.
A vote for McCain is a wasted vote that just helps Obama.
Nah. The time to flank the socialists in both parties is NOW.
Exactly.
Apparently it’s Harold Stassen. Had to view the source to find out.
I would cheerfully welcome either of two eventualities:
1. McCain appoints a real conservative as his running mate.
2. A real conservative runs on some third party line.
Unfortunately, neither is likely to happen, at this point. McCain wouldn’t know a real conservative if he tripped over him, and he certainly wouldn’t offer him a spot in his government.
Also, as usual it is the kooks and flakes who always run on these third party tickets. All we need now is Pat Buchanan. It, too, like and admire Alan Keyes, but as a politician he is as dumb as a rock. And Bob Barr sounds more and more like Ron Paul Lite. The problem is that any real, strong, plausible candidate just doesn’t want to throw himself into a third party ticket, much as we might like him to.
That won’t happen unless McManiac is elected and the Republican Party completely disintegrates. But as we’ve seen, they can screw up and screw up, and miss opportunities, and give the dems 20 years of control of congress, yet they just keep plugging on without apparently learning a thing.
So, we are unlikely to have any really good candidates out there in November unless something unexpected happens—which is what I keep hoping.
This is the best hope conservative Republicans have of avoiding a bloodbath down ticket.
Since my vote was going to a write-in anyway, what's the harm? There are plenty of people out there that will not pull the lever for McCain. Now we might just have a place, or two, to show numbers.
But if Alan Keyes is on the ballot, accurately and eloquently tracing the decline of our nation to our rejection of the authority of God ... my conscience may prevail upon me to vote for him.
Thing is, apart from the direct and dramatic intervention of God, he has zero chance of winning ... and everyone here knows it.
He'd likely make a great statesman, but he's a lousy politician ... comes across to most people as angry and arrogant. (Of course if I were twice as brilliant as anyone else on the stage everywhere I went, I would have trouble not coming across as arrogant, too.)
And he'll be running with a party that, rather than growing in influence, has recently had a major splintering over pro-life purity ... and it was a fringe party to begin with.
And the better he does, the more likely Obama will be sitting in the White House.
I'm rambling, but ... aargh ....
Yep, we need another Clinton winning with 43% of the vote. Wouldn’t that be just f’n great?
He's not a politician, he's a stateman.
How are politicians working out for you?
Bingo. You win the prize for most insightful post of the day.
Ooooooh. It’s the Obama-BOGEYMAN! And if you want to keep him out of office, you’ll be sure to vote for the other socialist. You know, the one with the “R” right after his name. (/s)
I wish he won the nomination.
I have NO TIME for McCain.
I won't hold my breath waiting for McCain to reach across the isle to me. He basically shuns conservatives.
I'm wholeheartedly supportive of Dr.Keyes if he can get the nomination in the Constitution Party.
I would support & follow him all the way.
There is no other choice!
I loved Duncan Hunter, but Hunter dropped out.
Keyes wants to give us a viable choice.
“None of which has a snowballs chance of being elected.”
Better to vote for socialism-lite of the GOP candidate then, eh? At least you’ll know what you’re getting.
Barr and Keyes are both real conservatives(as is Buchanan). It’s a darn shame that people don’t even understand conservatism anymore. Even sadder that the things that Ronald Reagan, the greatest president of all time, stood for are considered “kooky” and “flaky” now. I think people dislike Paul, Barr, Keyes and PJB etc.. because what they stand for takes work and principle both of which are in short supply.
Ditto that. :-)
Me too. He's a great American.
Let me know if you want to be on the ping list.
Hmmm...personally, I think it’s everyone else who is “out there” compared to Keyes.
What about a Keyes/Hunter ticket :)
I’d love it.
We’d probably have the fence built in about a week! ;-)
As I noted on another thread, some FReepers' definition of a "kook" is ... someone who publicly and unashamedly stands for what we profess to believe.
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