Posted on 04/22/2008 11:07:43 AM PDT by Jack Black
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I am not an expert or a scholar or an activist. I am more of an eye-witness. I watched the Soviet Union collapse, and I have tried to put my observations into a concise message. I will leave it up to you to decide just how urgent a message it is.
My talk tonight is about the lack of collapse-preparedness here in the United States. I will compare it with the situation in the Soviet Union, prior to its collapse. The rhetorical device I am going to use is the "Collapse Gap" – to go along with the Nuclear Gap, and the Space Gap, and various other superpower gaps that were fashionable during the Cold War.
Slide [2] The subject of economic collapse is generally a sad one. But I am an optimistic, cheerful sort of person, and I believe that, with a bit of preparation, such events can be taken in stride. As you can probably surmise, I am actually rather keen on observing economic collapses. Perhaps when I am really old, all collapses will start looking the same to me, but I am not at that point yet.
And this next one certainly has me intrigued. From what I've seen and read, it seems that there is a fair chance that the U.S. economy will collapse sometime within the foreseeable future. It also would seem that we won't be particularly well-prepared for it. As things stand, the U.S. economy is poised to perform something like a disappearing act. And so I am eager to put my observations of the Soviet collapse to good use.
Slide [3] I anticipate that some people will react rather badly to having their country compared to the USSR. I would like to assure you that the Soviet people would have reacted similarly, had the United States collapsed first. Feelings aside, here are two 20th century superpowers, who wanted more or less the same things – things like technological progress, economic growth, full employment, and world domination – but they disagreed about the methods. And they obtained similar results – each had a good run, intimidated the whole planet, and kept the other scared. Each eventually went bankrupt.
See the rest: HERE
Wow! Two CWII pings in a day! I’m baaack!!
Get a life.
L
Corrected for inflation, the value of most commodities has remained steady for a century or more. Prices have, nonetheless, shot up. Ergo, the value of the dollar is plummeting (~33% drop in 4 years). Additionally, over that century, gov’t confiscation of taxpayer income has gone from about 2% of GDP to 20% of GDP.
How do YOU think that’s going to sort itself out?
The USSR was better to survive a collapse (than America) because...wait for it...it had a bigger more involved government (that then collapsed).
When the USA can not feed its army (like the USSR right before its collapse) and American soldiers are selling arms and ammo to the terrorists to buy drugs...then I would worry.
Sounds like it was written by the DNC and the rest of the radical leftists. On the other hand, if we end up with a Marxist in the White House, and a Marxist-dominated Congress, no telling what will happen to our precious Republic.
They would certainly try to tax it to death without regard for the fact that socialism does not pay for itself, and ALWAYS FAILS.
Did you read through the remaining charts? They are interesting.
The article is demented. The true lesson from history is that Socialism is what causes countries to collapse. (And yeah, enough socialism would indeed kill the US)
Does that make you happy? Now go change your shorts, Mary.
Meanwhile the things we might reasonably expect our government to do, like say protect the borders or expell the 10 million illegals who are bankrupting us they ignore.
Oh, yeah, then there are the actuarial time-bombs FedGov has designed, know are failing, and refuse to fix.
The election features: a Black far-leftist with virtually no resume to justify his run, a Woman leftist who was the wife of the most corrupt President in the history of the USA, and a "Opposition" Senator who has made a career of siding with the leftists on key votes in opposition to party he is supposedly a memeber of.
I think a little humility may be in order.
Thanks for your insightful comment! Look forward to hearing more of your views in future postings. It's people like you that make Free Republic such a great place.
“This is obviously a bit tongue-in-cheek”
No, he is quite serious.
He’s got some good points to make, but he does not appreciate the power of free markets. He thinks like a socialist.
And actually, what makes FR so great is being able to laugh at articles such as these (and AT the people that believe them).
Ah, the cry of the pollyanna: “things are bad? gee, well then I suppose they’ll get hugely hysterically absurdly worse then! Happy now spoilsport?”
The value of the dollar has dropped about 33% in 4 years.
And nobody dares say “inflation”.
Remember: the final actual collapse of the USSR came when the government was simply unable to pay its employees.
Think about that.
If you won’t, I’d like to hear from someone who will.
No, that is not the case. The people of the USSR were better able to survive the collapse of their government and economy because it worked so poorly for so long that they had long ago given up depending on it, and mostly got by without a lot of things working before the collapse.
The last major (kinda?) catastrophy we had was Katrina. A completely foreseeable event, one that we had days of warning about ... still resulted in 1,800 dead. This wasn't primarily a govt. failing (though the local authorities were totally negligent) as many individuals just acting stupidly. "It won't happen here".
Imagine all the supermarkets in your neighborhood or city being closed for a week. Many people would look just like the pathetic people waiting for someone to evacuate them from the roofs of their houses. Many others would look like the looters.
Indeed. 1. The USSR was not an industrial power after WW2. Soviet manufacturing and finished goods exports were not even 1% of US exports during 1946-1991. 2. The USA was predicated on LIBERTY. Progress and economic prosperity were merely byproducts of liberty. 3. No, the USSR's policy was to spread their ideology all over the planet and the policy of the USA was to frustrate the Soviet policy (See "Truman Doctrine"). We won. 4. The USSR exercised political control over many countries by marching their soldiers in (see Hungary, Czechoslovakia, etc.). The USA indirectly controlled/influenced nations but at no time did we ever invade our allies to keep them in our sphere of influence as did the USSR. 5. The USSR was *never* an even match for the USA economically or militarily. It's a delusion to think otherwise. 6. The USSR didn't actually go bankrupt, as if that would be a valid excuse for its failure. The leadership of the USSR simply were no longer able to instill fear in their peasants and the peasants rose up and tossed their masters onto the ash heap of history.
They are wrong.
Orlov figured out how to do a PowerPoint. He also figured out how to get Leftists to pay him to do PowerPoints.
Orlov's solution to the coming collapse? Why....MORE GOVERNMENT!
It's crap.
L
How much socialism do we need?
How far from that are we?
Please consider adjusting your attitude to not insult people who are merely posting articles for the enjoyment of others. If you want to critique the article fine, but please don't make rude comments to me for simply doing what FR is here to do.
Have a great day. LATER!
Much of the problem lies in defining what “collapse” means.
To start with, the Soviet Union wasn’t just Russia. It included most of central Asia. And for all intents and purposes, the Baltic and eastern Europe, which were parasitically used to keep the USSR alive.
Importantly, even with enormous resources, the USSR couldn’t produce the minimum of products its small population required.
This was due to amazing inefficiencies, some of which were holdovers from 19th Century industrialization, such as basing productivity on *weight*, which is why bridge bolts were in abundance, yet watch parts were unobtainable. It was many years before this struck them as an untenable idea.
Even worse was their insistence that socialist doctrine had to be followed, even when it had proven itself worthless and destructive. Their agricultural system produced only a tiny fraction of the food *any* non-communist country in the world could have produced with that much arable land.
Ironically, Ronald Reagan may have caused the collapse of the USSR with mostly just agriculture. He bankrupted their country by selling them as much expensive grain as they wanted. And they were *willing* to bankrupt themselves instead of reforming their agricultural system.
Now compare this with the United States. We are neither ruling nor exploiting any other nation. Granted we have a serious problem with oligopoly corporations in several industries, but they still, at least technically, compete with each other, and try to achieve market dominance. If any screw up, like Bear Stearns or Enron, its market segment is absorbed by its competitors.
Our biggest problem is our overuse of credit, but it may be possible for circumstances to force our government to stop its profligate spending and balance its budget. And from that point, managing the economy becomes easier.
If economic growth is needed, simply cut taxes. A contraction of credit requires much more realism than will permit either socialized medicine or a host of other entitlement programs.
As far as our military goes, there will always be more jobs available for them than we have personnel. So it would not be a bad idea to create an offshore mercenary army of light infantry, mostly to do the dull and unimportant tasks that our military are too good to be doing. This will free up our soldiers for the important stuff. And it will cost much less.
Collapse? No. But there are a lot of evolutionary changes that need to take place as well, that will keep us performing well into the next century.
No, it's not. He is basically a survivalist. Same stuff you see on Frugal Squirrels and lots of other "patriot" sites. Pay off your house, don't play in the markets, etc. His short list of things he'd like the government to do is pretty close to what we asked (or helped) the USSR do when they collapsed. Shut down nuke plants, secure the missles and nukes, etc. His plan for government "doing" is alot samller than the supposed conservative in this race, John McCain, who wants FedGov to prevent the earth temperature from changing!! (And I won't even get inot everything Obama and Hillary want to do 'for' us!!)
Now I've tended to disagree with most of 'the sky is falling' view that these sites have, I think our system has a lot of capacity to right itself. But that capacity is not infinite. The $120 a barrel price of oil and the $1000 an oz. gold are worrisome. The destruction of the dollar is real enough that magazines like Businessweek and The Economist have articles about it.
That you are a FReeper and would take anything this guy says serious is amazing.
Really? Spanish American War? Guatamalan US Fruit coup? Nicaragua and Walker?
Just as free-(markets, enterprise, press, speech, etc.) has proved to be far superior to centrally-planned totalitarianism at generating wealth — freedom will guarantee that any “collapse” will be managed better than it was in the U.S.S.R.
I think a little humility may be in order.
:::::::
The implication of my post was very much that. We CLEARLY are in a heap of trouble already and it is just getting worse. Nothing is getting better, really. We are suffering from a dysfunctional government, at least in the sense of its functionality as a government of a Constitutional Republic, and yes, we are taxed to death — and our corportate tax structure is the highest in the world.
And now we are positioning for more of the same in this upcoming election. How much can the nation stand? Hard to say but the house-of-cards is getting a bit shakey, along with our dollar, and our impressive energy policy — all effecting our economy.
Not a pretty picture, while the pols in Washington are running around worrying about the “global warming” sham.
By the way, most of the other points you make I agree with. His equivilencies are over-drawn.
This is a disturbing but neccessary post. IMO the author has made some very good comparisons between the collapse of large Socialized/Controlled nations. This was in the back of my mind after 9/11 and I thought at that time that the US should concentrate first on ourselves and shore up this country by securing the borders, slowing exportation of jobs and importation of debt as well as forcing our government to stop spending on non-productive entities...
Exactly! Sorry I mis-read your earlier post.
Oil is a perfect weapon in the economic warfare arsenal the Middle East can use against the US. Because the price of oil moves inversely proportional to the value of the dollar, the US is catching a sever cold while most of the rest of the world is just sneezing.
As for me not taking time to "critique" the article - get real! I wouldn't take the time to critique a posted article that defended communism, said the earth was flat or denied that the moon landing took place, either, and this would be no reflection on me. I would probably also blow them off with an "insulting" comment to anyone silly enough to give them any bit of credence (as you clearly do this with this drivel).
I don’t feel being rude is ever appropriate on a discussion forum. Obviously you do. Oh well.
I don’t feel being rude is ever appropriate on a discussion forum. Obviously you do. Oh well.
Be aware that FR’s Jack Black is keeper of the “CWII ping list”, which is concerned with the possible impending collapse of the USA. Of course he’s interested in various points of view on the subject. The lead post, while certainly from a suspect angle, does have some points of interest in those wondering how nations collapse.
As for “alarmist left-wing moonbat nonsense”, I point you to your first reply to me. Further comment is unnecessary.
Really? Compare human longevity from 1920 and today.
Is your computer better than the one you had 15 years ago?
Are the disc brakes on your car better than the drum brakes you had 30 years ago?
Is the air cleaner than it was 30 years ago? How about the water?
We've got some serious problems and here I agree that it's largely a brain dead or outright treasonous Congress that's largely to blame. But saying that 'nothing is getting better' is demonstrably false.
L
Here, I'll say it more simply - I was making a funny!
I certainly apologize for assuming you had the capacity to understand that. Sheeeesh!
Your post is on the USA & the USSR in the post WW2 Cold War period. None of your three citations here have anything to do with your original topic as all three cite events that took place well before the USSR even existed.
Kindly keep your sarcastic retorts within the scope of your topic, hmmm?
But saying that ‘nothing is getting better’ is demonstrably false.
:::::
You took it too literally :-) -— I was clearly referring to our governmental processes and functionality ONLY. :-)
So noted. But his equivalencies are typical of the European mindset that simply cannot understand the functions of liberty in which the government does not control the economy. Russians simply cannot grasp the concept of being free of governmental control. I live in Sacramento with a large Russian population and the ongoing theme of my conversations with these people as we discuss the differences between Russia (USSR) and the USA run to a few key points where in the USA they have to get used to:
* Not explaining to a police officer or a soldier at numerous checkpoints why they are travelling, where they are going, and who they intend to see.
* Not >always< paying bribes to various authorities.
* Not having to hide from the police in the expectation that the cops are worse criminals than regular crinminals.
* Going to a store and simply getting what they want from a shelf, paying for it, and leaving. This simple fact of life in the USA still is a new idea in Russia.
* Trusting the mail enough to put checks in it.
* Being able to tell a cop to his face that you don't like what he's doing and not getting a .17 caliber bullet in the back of your head for doing so.
And the list goes on. The reasons the USSR collapsed and the USA perseveres are legion. Most of the reasons have little to do with our government and most to do with our culture - which values liberty.
JF: Really? Spanish American War? Guatamalan US Fruit coup? Nicaragua and Walker?
PF: Your post is on the USA & the USSR in the post WW2 Cold War period. None of your three citations here have anything to do with your original topic as all three cite events that took place well before the USSR even existed.
Well the implication I got from your original posting was that the USSR was a classic exapansionist empire (the "Evil Empire" in the words of Reagan) while the USA was a more virtuous simple nation. I don't buy into the whole leftists / Chomskyite rant that the USA is an Empire, but neither do I subscribe to the idea that we are wholely virtuous and without imperial ambition and action, on occassion. So while my remark came off as sarcastic, it was meant as a genuine question of whether our actions to expand and hold our sphere of influence may have had a little more in common w/ the USSR than first blush suggests.
Also, to me the fact that some of these took place before the cold war makes them harder to explain away. The Spanish American War sure *looked* like raw imperialism at the end of the age of Empires. The Guatamalan Coup has to be evaluated in terms of the very real cold war we were engaged in with the USSR. One could make a good case that these were defensive actions.
In the post WW2 era I guess one might sight Allende in Chile and the Iranian coup, as other examples. And, again in both cases there is a strong case that the coups were defensive in nature. It does seem that we were able to accomplish more control with less force than team Red Star. We had overthrows that were pretty quiet compared with the "boot on face" style of the Soviets in places like Prauge and Warsaw.
Walker Runs Nicaragua: 1856-7
Spanish American War: 1898
Russian Revolution: 1917
Guatamalan Coup: 1954
I agree with your points about our superior culture of liberty. I do worry though that the government is working hard to obliterate it.
Again, the saddest thing in New Orleans were all the able boddied people doing NOTHING to save themselves, but waiting for the government to save them. An able bodied man can easily walk 3 miles an hour. Small groups could easily have evac'd crippled neighbors with out any assistance from the mayor or anyone else. In many other parts of the USA this would have happened.
I fear we are continually creating more and more New Orleans in our nation. What percent of Americans now rely on FedGov for their income? 50% according to this article in the Christian Science Monitor.
I think the authors point was that because the USSR government didn't work people had already the habit of surviving without (or in opposition) to them.
We are actually closer to building the WORKING Socialist State than the USSR ever was. Because our system does work (ie: 50% of people get income that is worth something from the Government) perhaps they are less prepared to deal with that Government going away.
One imagines most people in the USSR were very happy to see the statues of Stalin come tumbling down. I think there are a whole lot of people in the USA who would be absolutely crushed, angered, crying if FedGov, for whatever reason, stopped acting like FedGov.
bump
On the other side, the Supreme Court's anticipated pro 2nd Amendment decision is expected to help roll back the assault on liberty...at least for a while.
In fairness to the people in New Orleans, after Katrina the town was made into a concentration camp. Able bodied citizens were prohibited from leaving the city and several police have now been prosecuted for killing people who were merely trying to leave. The authorities wanted everyone concentrated at the football stadium to await aid which arrived way too late for too many people.
The reliance of too many people on government aid is an expression of government control. As I used to say, liberals fear most the people who do not need them.
Good point- all you did was post it, which is a good idea so that one can see how the “Pretend Kafka Intellectuals” present agendas for facts.
The one difference the author failed to discuss is the basic character and historical differences between the Russian and the American. All of our sins fit into a tea cup while theirs fill a lake. All of Russian history , not some of it, is filled with murder and repression. They are use to hardships. The weak have been bred out their society. Just do a little study on Russian History and one comes up with the Russians are not happy being happy.
He implies we have grown weak of which he has a point. I do believe the individual Russian is tougher than the average American with that being the real reason for their easier adjustments to a So-Called-Collapsed-Economy. Compared to the USA they were always poor. I was there and saw it for myself.
I don’t believe America is on the edge of disaster even if the economy collapses. It hasn’t been so long since the depth of the Great Depression that we don’t carry some memory of dealing with poverty. Bread lines, soup lines, hobo camps in the woods. We can get by without everything invented since 1950, which is everything in the electronics section of the grocers. Don’t need it. We’ll have to move out of the cities, but once the power and water go out nobody will want to stay in the city. It will not be easy at first, but we can handle it.
Inflation?!?!? What inflation?
In 1964 a newly minted Quarter could buy a gallon of gas.
That very same silver quarter can still buy a gallon of gas 44 years later.
Interesting read... Thanks for the Ping!
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