Skip to comments.Hillary Builds Her Case - Trying to prove Obama can't win.
Posted on 04/23/2008 9:20:32 AM PDT by The_Republican
FORGET DELEGATES AND the popular vote for the Democratic presidential nomination. The most important thing Hillary Clinton gained by winning the Pennsylvania primary yesterday was a better argument--indeed, a much better argument.
Chances are, Clinton will trail Obama in the delegate count when the primaries end on June 3, as she does now. And while she may cut into his lead in the popular vote in the Democratic contests, she's not likely to exceed his vote total. So the only way she can capture the nomination is by convincing roughly 300 uncommitted super-delegates that Obama cannot defeat Republican John McCain in November but she can.
This isn't an easy case to make, especially with the super-delegates who will provide the margin of victory for whoever captures the 2,025 delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination. And at the moment, they appear strongly inclined to back Obama if he leads in delegates when the primary season is finished.
But after Pennsylvania, Clinton's argument that she's a stronger opponent against McCain will be impossible to ignore or dismiss. And it's not just because Clinton was outspent by nearly 3 to 1 by Obama and got tougher coverage from the media, yet trounced him by a substantial margin in a state that the Democratic presidential nominee must win in November.
The key was how she won in Pennsylvania. She clobbered him among the voting blocs that are critical to a Democratic victory: union households, women, Catholics, working class and downscale voters, and those who didn't attend college.
The Democratic nominee who doesn't win a solid majority of these voting groups is all but certain to lose in November.
In fact, she ran stronger among these voters than she had in Ohio, another state where she topped Obama. Ohio, too, is a must win state for the Democratic nominee in November.
And there was a telling number from the exit poll of voters. Nearly one-third of Clinton voters said they wouldn't vote for Obama if he's the nominee. Now, it's likely many of these voters will change their minds. But a sizeable number may remain alienated from the nominee and vote for McCain. A smaller percentage of Obama voters said they wouldn't vote for Clinton if she wins the presidential nomination.
Clinton, of course, will stress this point. She'll emphasize how important the Democratic groups she won are to the party's coalition. And she will point to her pickup of around 200,000 more popular votes than Obama in Pennsylvania--an impressive margin.
If the votes in the Michigan and Florida primaries are included, Clinton actually is ahead of Obama in popular votes. For now anyway, the Democratic National Committee has ruled that the Michigan and Florida votes won't be counted because the states voted too early.
Her argument boils down to this: I can hold the traditionally Democratic voters critical to winning the general election and he can't, and thus I can defeat McCain and he can't. Sure, he's ahead in delegates, but he won many of them months ago, before the halo over his campaign was knocked off.
In the Democratic debate last week, she said "yes, yes, yes" when asked if she thinks Obama can defeat McCain. But, in private, she and her allies make the opposite argument: Obama can't win.
Before Pennsylvania, Clinton made the same argument, but her case was weaker. Now it's not only stronger, but it's changed the political environment. Clinton is no longer a hopeless underdog. Yes, she's still an underdog, but one with an argument and a prayer.
Personally, I believe that she is right.
Hopefully, the democrat machine will be incapable of acting to remedy this because the only person who can actually defeat the democrats this year is Obama.
The big question coming out today..........Is McCain a fall guy and going to take a dive to elect Hillary President? He’s pretty tight with the Democrats.
Surely you aren’t serious?
Of course she’s right, which is why “chaos” was dumb from day one.
Ditto that. We need Obama on the top of the ballot and Hilary off sulking somewhere.
First - full disclosure: John McCain is my Hero.
Second, just to give you one fact - Say whatever about McCain but you have to acknowledge one thing - he has giant EGO.
Guys like that don’t roll-over for nobody.
He is not cozy enough with anybody to not want to win. You can take that to the bank.
Coming out today? Who has said this other than yourself?
Agree with you on McCain’s ego. His is legendary just in Republican circles.
And we witnessed his arrogance on illegal immigration. Even when he backed down to save his candidacy, he’d come back and try to defend it.
You are right he won’t back down for the top job. He’s wanted it for too long.
First, one would think Fred Barnes is smart enough to know that it’s not where the numbers are today but at the end of the vote totals.
Obama is most likely to increase his delegate (and popular vote) totals by June 3.
When that happens he will be within as much as 100 or as little as 50 Super Politician Delegate votes claim the nomination.
He announced today another committed SPD vote today. Out of the 300 outstanding, how can Shrillary possibly claim two-thirds or more of that at the end of the day.
Gee, Michael Barone should give a call to Fred Barnes and straighten him out.
Of course he’s series... and stop calling him Shirley. ;)
That is the stupidest question I have heard in ages... anyone who thinks McCain is going to “take a dive” just needs a frontal lobotomy, or has already had one.
no way...now how...that the Democrat Party will pick a white woman over the “HOPE” of black Obama.....the Kennedy’s have already spoken.
I just got this in an email.
Why haven’t we thought of this........
‘We in Holland cannot figure out why you are even bothering to hold an election.
On one side, you have a bi+** who is a lawyer, married to a lawyer, and a lawyer who is married to a bi+** who is a lawyer.
On the other side, you have a true war hero married to a woman with a huge chest who owns a beer distributorship.
Why is there even a contest here?’
Hahahahahaahaahahahahaha!!!!! Gonna pass it around!!!
That’s what I have been saying. She had the UNBEATABLE COALITION (Women who think she is a Femminist + Conservative Voters) and on top of that she deployed RACE CARD to win what she herself referred to as “LUNCH-BUCKET-DEMOCRATS”, not too long ago.
However, this is NOT necessarily good news for us.
All this shows is that Klintons are able to convince anyone of anything.
Is not even thinking about convincing 300 super delegates that a candidate who has more regular delegates and popular vote count all BS?
There is simply no way that the democrat party will allow hillary to pull this off - reject a black man who has more delegates and votes......
This entire discussion seems like nonsense to me, although sort of fun and with funds still being spent on the demo contest it seems like less money will be readily available in the general.
I do wonder what hillary will look like in 4 years when she tries this again. A lot more pancake makeup will need to be applied.