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How We'll Know We've Won
The Weekly Standard ^ | April 26, 2007 | Frederick W. Kagan

Posted on 04/26/2008 6:25:52 AM PDT by moderatewolverine

The president's nomination of generals David Petraeus and Raymond Odierno to take command of U.S. Central Command and Multinational Force-Iraq, respectively, was obviously the right decision. By experience and temperament and demonstrated success, both men are perfectly suited to these jobs. Given the political climate in Washington, however, their nominations are likely to be attacked with the same tired arguments war critics used to try to drown out reports of progress in Iraq during the recent Petraeus-Crocker hearings. So before the shouting begins again, let us consider in detail one of the most important of these arguments: that no one has offered any clear definition of success in Iraq.

Virtually everyone who wants to win this war agrees: Success will have been achieved when Iraq is a stable, representative state that controls its own territory, is oriented toward the West, and is an ally in the struggle against militant Islamism, whether Sunni or Shia. This has been said over and over. Why won't war critics hear it? Is it because they reject the notion that such success is achievable and therefore see the definition as dishonest or delusional? Is it because George Bush has used versions of it and thus discredited it in the eyes of those who hate him? Or is it because it does not offer easily verifiable benchmarks to tell us whether or not we are succeeding? There could be other reasons--perhaps critics fear that even thinking about success or failure in Iraq will weaken their demand for an immediate "end to the war." Whatever the explanation for this tiresome deafness, here is one more attempt to flesh out what success in Iraq means and how we can evaluate progress toward it.

(Excerpt) Read more at theweeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: iraq; jihad; oif; petraeus; terror; victory; wot
Frederick Kagan is definitely one of the better writers on Iraq today.
1 posted on 04/26/2008 6:25:53 AM PDT by moderatewolverine
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To: moderatewolverine

bump for later


2 posted on 04/26/2008 6:36:10 AM PDT by Christian4Bush ("41-David, you are clear for end of watch." Rest in Peace, SWAT Officer Randal Simmons.)
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To: moderatewolverine
Success will have been achieved when Iraq is a stable, representative state that controls its own territory, is oriented toward the West, and is an ally in the struggle against militant Islamism, whether Sunni or Shia.

Excellent article but I think we need to be careful about what we expect them to do. Iraq's government should be doing what is in the interest of Iraq. I'd like to think they would an ally akin to Turkey but, like every country, they need to do what is right for themselves.

3 posted on 04/26/2008 6:42:00 AM PDT by Straight Vermonter (Posting from deep behind the Maple Curtain)
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To: moderatewolverine

bttt


4 posted on 04/26/2008 7:01:02 AM PDT by Mrs. Don-o
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To: Straight Vermonter
"Excellent article but I think we need to be careful about what we expect them to do. Iraq's government should be doing what is in the interest of Iraq. I'd like to think they would an ally akin to Turkey but, like every country, they need to do what is right for themselves."

Excellent point! A good example is when the U.S. set a Benchmark that required "top down" political development. The Iraqi people ended up doing it from the "bottom up".

5 posted on 04/26/2008 7:01:10 AM PDT by LZ_Bayonet (There's Always Something.............And there's always something worse!)
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To: moderatewolverine

We will know we’ve “Won” when Muzzies around the world denounce the jihad and start putting their own terrorists to the sword. Until then its still open season on all the rest of us infidels. Don’t look for this to happen anytime soon.


6 posted on 04/26/2008 7:01:41 AM PDT by Don Corleone (Leave the gun..take the cannoli)
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To: moderatewolverine
Virtually everyone who wants to win this war agrees: Success will have been achieved when Iraq is a stable, representative state that controls its own territory, is oriented toward the West, and is an ally in the struggle against militant Islamism, whether Sunni or Shia. This has been said over and over. Why won't war critics hear it? Is it because they reject the notion that such success is achievable...

And is being achieved.

These things don't happen overnight, but there is definitely forward progress continually being made on all of these objectives.

7 posted on 04/26/2008 7:04:28 AM PDT by Allegra (Tehran delenda est)
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To: moderatewolverine

Why don’t we demand the same benchmarks and proof of success in the War on Poverty, the education system, and myriad other socialists programs that are expensive quagmires?


8 posted on 04/26/2008 7:46:47 AM PDT by Mind-numbed Robot (Not all that needs to be done, needs to be done by the government.)
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To: moderatewolverine

Ain’t nothing gonna matter if either of the two democrat idiots get elected


9 posted on 04/26/2008 7:59:58 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: moderatewolverine
"Why won't war critics hear it?"

Because to these people,Bush is the enemey and if we have to lose the war for them to beat Bush, that's OK with them.

10 posted on 04/26/2008 8:27:33 AM PDT by wny
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To: aflaak; TXHubbard

ping


11 posted on 04/26/2008 9:16:03 AM PDT by r-q-tek86 (If you're not taking flak, you're not over the target.)
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To: moderatewolverine
Success will have been achieved when Iraq is a stable, representative state that controls its own territory, is oriented toward the West, and is an ally in the struggle against militant Islamism, whether Sunni or Shia

It doesn't even have oriented to the west, it just has to be not against the west.
12 posted on 04/26/2008 9:44:28 AM PDT by stylin19a
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To: stylin19a
Yes I agree. I would change my expectations and if Iraqi is eventually ruled by a strongman who is not hostile towards the West, that's okay with me.

At this moment, democracy in Iraq is a pipe dream.

13 posted on 04/26/2008 9:59:17 AM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

“At this moment, democracy in Iraq is a pipe dream.”

No, I agree with the article. Which part of the following do you disagree with:

[we should note that the overwhelming majority of Iraqis continue to manifest their desire for representative government, as evidenced by the 8 million who voted in the last elections, the 90 percent of Sunni Arab Iraqis who tell pollsters they will vote in the upcoming provincial elections, and the sense on the streets that anyone who tries to eliminate representative government will do so at his peril. ]


14 posted on 04/26/2008 3:41:59 PM PDT by death2tyrants
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To: moderatewolverine

bump


15 posted on 04/26/2008 7:42:06 PM PDT by Dajjal
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To: moderatewolverine
let us consider in detail one of the most important of these arguments: that no one has offered any clear definition of success in Iraq.

Simple.

For the Republicans success in Iraq is if we win.

For the democrats success in Iraq is if we lose.

16 posted on 04/26/2008 7:57:06 PM PDT by oldbrowser
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To: oldbrowser
"For the Republicans success in Iraq is if we win. For the democrats success in Iraq is if we lose."

Except that by any reasonable definitions, we're already winning, and mostly have been.

But the more things improve in Iraq, the more Dems say it's all just a big mess, Bush's war, we've lost, no victory possible, withdraw immediately, etc., etc.

For them, the math is pretty simple: victory means more Republicans elected to office, defeat means more Dems. Solution: define "victory" up, define "defeat" down.

And with the media's eager cooperation, that's Dems playing their game their way...

17 posted on 04/27/2008 12:52:11 AM PDT by BroJoeK (A little historical perspective....)
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