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Poll: Democrat Ahead In Louisiana Special Election
tpmelectioncentral ^ | 05/01/08 | Eric Kleefeld

Posted on 05/01/2008 7:21:49 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3

Poll: Democrat Ahead In Louisiana Special Election A new SurveyUSA poll in Louisiana shows Democrats on track to win this Saturday's special election to fill the vacancy of former Rep. Richard Baker (R), who resigned in February to become a lobbyist.

The poll shows conservative Democrat Don Cazayoux with 50% support, with 41% for GOP candidate Woody Jenkins, a longtime controversial fixture in Louisiana politics.

This seat has not been held by a Democrat since the 1970s, and the district voted 59% for President Bush in 2004, so a Dem win here would be big news indeed.


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Louisiana
KEYWORDS: cazayoux; jenkins; la2008; louisiana; surveyusa

1 posted on 05/01/2008 7:21:49 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3
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To: TornadoAlley3

This cannot be a good sign for us in 08.


2 posted on 05/01/2008 7:30:21 AM PDT by bill1952 (I will vote for McCain if he resigns his Senate seat before this election.)
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To: TornadoAlley3

How conservative is a conservative democrat?


3 posted on 05/01/2008 7:32:12 AM PDT by stevio (Crunchy Con - God, guns, guts, and organically grown crunchy nuts.)
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To: bill1952
This cannot be a good sign for us in 08.

Perhaps, but I wouldn't count on LA politics being a harbinger for national elections. They're just plain 'ole weird in LA when it comes to politics.

4 posted on 05/01/2008 7:32:41 AM PDT by numberonepal (Don't Even Think About Treading On Me)
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To: TornadoAlley3

terrible news.


5 posted on 05/01/2008 7:32:54 AM PDT by obamahorror (Obama)
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To: All

Why was such a weak candidate recruited for the GOP side?


6 posted on 05/01/2008 7:36:22 AM PDT by Owen
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To: TornadoAlley3

Don Cazayoux: A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing

http://www.nrcc.org/news/default.asp?ID=256


7 posted on 05/01/2008 7:36:49 AM PDT by JUMPIN JEHOSPOHAT
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To: bill1952
This cannot be a good sign for us in 08.

Perhaps. I don't have stats, but it seems that special elections aren't real good predictors for November. BTW: The guy resigned to become a lobbyist? He should be billed for the cost of the special election.

8 posted on 05/01/2008 7:37:06 AM PDT by Minn (Here is a realistic picture of the prophet: ----> ([: {()
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To: bill1952

Just imagine what will happen in the ‘08 election after Rush Limbaugh gets the nom for Hillary, and she names Obama VP. Coming soon...


9 posted on 05/01/2008 7:37:13 AM PDT by devane617 (My Kharma Ran Over Your Dogma)
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To: TornadoAlley3

We’ll see, but in my opinion this is what comes of EVERY republican going on every show and stating with certainty this is a bad year for republicans. Have you ever seen the democrats be so stupid?


10 posted on 05/01/2008 7:41:44 AM PDT by Williams
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To: devane617
I don't have to imagine, I know. If Billary snatches the nomination from Hussein and then tries to throw him (and the blacks) a crumb like the VP slot, the blacks will turn away in DROVES as will the youth vote whom they are countiong so heavily on.

I have a black neighbor 3 houses from me with whom I have discussed this very scenario. According to him and his friends they will in great numbers do exactly as I have said here.

11 posted on 05/01/2008 7:45:23 AM PDT by Vio24
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To: TornadoAlley3

We should get Dr. Dean to run the GOP. He is running more conservative candidates in Southern States than the Republican Party.


12 posted on 05/01/2008 7:46:20 AM PDT by MeSpikeLibs (God help us this election!!!!)
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To: bill1952

If winning the Governorship in LA was a big deal for Republicans nationwide then why is the liberal ahead in this race? And if he really is ahead and manages to win, then why is THIS race a harbinger of things to come when the much more high profile Governors race was not?


13 posted on 05/01/2008 7:47:42 AM PDT by Vio24
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To: bill1952

If winning the Governorship in LA was a big deal for Republicans nationwide then why is the liberal ahead in this race? And if he really is ahead and manages to win, then why is THIS race a harbinger of things to come when the much more high profile Governors race was not?


14 posted on 05/01/2008 7:47:45 AM PDT by Vio24
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To: TornadoAlley3

Hell, John McCain was recently in LA assailing the Federal government’s [read WH] handling of Katrina.


15 posted on 05/01/2008 7:50:55 AM PDT by kabar
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To: Vio24
There has been a lot of happy talk by the McCain supporters about the upcoming election. The reality is that all signs point to a huge Dem victory. With 30 Reps retiring from Congress this year and the early Dem wins in picking up seats from the Hastert retirement and possibly this one, there is plenty of reason to worry.

The Stupid Party nominated its maverick as its standard bearer. Once the focus is on the general election and McCain starts spouting off on comprehensive immigration reform, global warming, closing Gitmo, etc., Rep turnout is going to be depressed. And the Dems WILL emerge with a unified party with Obama as the nominee and possibly Hillary as the VP. All of the turmoil and infighting in the protracted Dem primaries will serve the Dems in good stead as they set records in participation and generated voter networks in state after state.

Elections like these are the canaries in the coal mine.

16 posted on 05/01/2008 7:58:09 AM PDT by kabar
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To: TornadoAlley3

I used to live in this district. I would vote for Pete Aranyosi(I) if I could. Even though he is crazy as a loon, it would be a real hoot to see him try to give morning speeches on C-Span.


17 posted on 05/01/2008 7:59:25 AM PDT by Augustinian monk (You going to pull those pistols or whistle Dixie?- Jose Wales)
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To: TornadoAlley3

“Michael Jackson, who lost in the Democratic runoff, is running television commercials not to endorse his party’s nominee Don Cazayoux but to declare to supporters that he is running again in the fall. He told me he intends to seek the full term whether or not Cazayoux wins the special election, which is less likely without a strong black vote that Jackson is doing nothing to encourage.

Jackson sees little point in running again as a Democrat, since local and Washington contributors overwhelmingly favored Cazayoux in the primary and the runoff.

“Why endure the primary process when they (white candidates) have the advatnage?” he said. “Why not make it one run?”

John Maginnis
Democrats Brace for November Revolt
entire article
http://www.lapolitics.com/column.php


18 posted on 05/01/2008 8:02:34 AM PDT by JUMPIN JEHOSPOHAT
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To: stevio
http://jeffsadow.blogspot.com/

also links to some stories about Jindal being against tax cuts in LA, wth is going on, I thought Jindal was conservative.

20.4.08
Republicans supporting Cazayoux disregard his liberalism

Curiously, some self-identified (whether all are registered as such is another matter) Republicans publicly have announced support for Democrat state Rep. Don Cazayoux in the May 3 special election for the U.S. Sixth District. They point to his beliefs “being pro-life, pro-gun and his ideas for national security” as the reason why. Therefore, one only can conclude they remain ignorant or deluded about his record in the state Legislature that does not support causes traditionally aligned with Republicans.

A review of the past three years of Cazayoux’s votes shows a legislator more than willing to raise taxes and fees to fund big government, to spend taxpayers’ dollars on wasteful projects, to neglect wise spending choices, to introduce greater government control over the economy, and to reduce citizens’ economic choices, among other things. Some of his more outrageous examples follow:
Regarding his views on government intervention into the economy, in 2005, he voted to put a floor on gasoline prices, artificially raising them, and in 2006 voted to increase them again potentially by mandating the use of alternative fuels at a certain point, for increasing the minimum wage which would have hurt business and the economy, and for allowing local government passing through revenue-raising on cable television bills and to restrict consumer choice in that area, and last year voted against the privatization of the state’s troubled insurer.
Concerning his record on taxing and spending, in 2005, he voted to increase taxes on health care providers, that enabled increased government spending, which would have been passed through to consumers, while last year he voted to authorize building of a palatial replacement for New Orleans’ charity hospital that would facilitate continuance of Louisiana’s present costly, inefficient indigent health car provision regime.
Reviewing the kinds of spending priorities he favors, in 2005 he voted to enable more money to be spent on the dubious “economic development” projects around the state, the building of reservoirs, in this case in Morehouse Parish, while in 2006 he did the same for the existing Poverty Point reservoir.
Last year, on several measures designed to reduce government spending that could have led to a tax cut, to cut the size of government through eliminating long-term vacant positions, and to prevent pay raises going to these “ghost” positions, he voted against all of them.
While a vocal of supporter of banning types of free tickets to legislators this year, in 2006 he voted against an almost-identical measure.
In 2006, he voted to extend government protections to practitioners of homosexuality, which would have embroiled government in needless litigation.
Finally, he practices enthusiastically what many are growing to dislike, earmarks, a practice that his Republican opponent Louis “Woody” Jenkins says he will stop.

What also should be causing severe cognitive dissonance for these Republicans is Cazayoux has had a fairly populist and liberal record overall in the Legislature. Over the past three years his scores on the voting scorecard produced in my Louisiana Legislature Log gives him numbers (where 0 is “perfectly” liberal/populist) of 44, 30, and 10. Either these Republicans are not very bright or are willfully ignorant if they cannot see Cazayoux does not believe in the ideas that Republicans typically do.

These wayward GOP identifiers are playing right into the hands of Cazayoux’s campaign which is trying to portray Cazayoux as more conservative than he actually is so he does not seem as out-of-touch which the district as much as he really is. Just because you cherry-pick a few conservative positions does not make you one, and if these Republicans themselves are conservatives they should know that.

19 posted on 05/01/2008 8:23:58 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3 (Everytime McCain reaches out to conservatives, conservatives get poked in the eye.)
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To: TornadoAlley3

I’ve heard Louisiana politics are, shall we say different? Anyway, thanks for the heads up.


20 posted on 05/01/2008 8:32:21 AM PDT by stevio (Crunchy Con - God, guns, guts, and organically grown crunchy nuts.)
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To: kabar

We had the same thing happen recently in a special election for the state legislature in Florida. The state GOP poured a bunch of money into it, and Crist even did some campaigning for the guy, but he still lost to the Dem by a fairly large margin in a solidly Republican district.

I have a friend in the state GOP, and they weren’t happy, to say the least.


21 posted on 05/01/2008 8:37:07 AM PDT by LadyNavyVet (The NC GOP is McCain's maverick.)
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To: TornadoAlley3
When this guy turns into just another reliable liberal vote for plastic face to use to destroy America I hope these voters can connect the dots.
I am an optimistic person by nature, but yes this does look bad for the fall. The rat convention does, however, have the potential to bring down their whole ticket.
22 posted on 05/01/2008 8:44:57 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatives live in the truth. Liberals live in lies.)
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To: Vio24

why is THIS race a harbinger of things to come when the much more high profile Governors race was not?

Straw argument.
Losing a long held GOP seat is a bad sign no matter what other arguments you bring in.

Ping me after election day in November if I am all wrong.


23 posted on 05/01/2008 8:57:22 AM PDT by bill1952 (I will vote for McCain if he resigns his Senate seat before this election.)
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To: TornadoAlley3
If McCain campaigns poorly against a unified ‘Rat party, it will be a wipeout from top to bottom, with the government looking more like it did from ‘64 to ‘66 than anything else. If McCain turns out to run a strong campaign and manages to squeak in against a divided ‘Rat ticket, we may limit the damage, but we're still going to lose yardage in the Senate and the House, based on retirements and number of defended seats alone.
24 posted on 05/01/2008 9:12:40 AM PDT by chimera
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To: kabar
You are wrong on every point and have no basis for anything you say except pure opinion and, I believe, a real desire to see the libs win.

You haven't a clue what McCain will have to say about immigration or anything else in the general; and you also have no isdea what the effect will be on the lib Party if and when Billary steals the nomination from Hussein. You seem to be saying that contrary to the Rep, the Dems have everything under control and all their chickens will magically come togetjher no matter what disasters await them at the convention.

You have been gloom and dooming all this board for months and frankly you haven't a shred of independent information to back up anything you say. I asked you weeks ago to post some links to sources you may have used to come to your conclusions but you ignored my request.

Personally I think you're a liberal.

25 posted on 05/01/2008 1:33:23 PM PDT by Vio24
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To: bill1952

Straw argument? The Democrats have won 32 of the last 36 elections for this office and in one stretch held the office from 1877-1996.

Maybe you should do a bit of research before posting.


26 posted on 05/01/2008 1:40:37 PM PDT by Vio24
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To: Vio24
You haven't a clue what McCain will have to say about immigration or anything else in the general;

I spent four days each in SC and FL driving almost 2000 miles dogging the McCain campaign protesting against his amnesty bills. I have heard his stump speech over a dozen times. I have it almost memorized including the jokes. I know exactly what he has said and will say about immigration.

and you also have no isdea what the effect will be on the lib Party if and when Billary steals the nomination from Hussein.

First, that is not going to happen. But if it did, judging by the statements of people like Sharpton, the black turnout will be depressed. A significant portion of Obama's base would consider that the nomination was stolen from the black guy who won the most delegates thru the ballot box.

You seem to be saying that contrary to the Rep, the Dems have everything under control and all their chickens will magically come togetjher no matter what disasters await them at the convention.<

You heard it here first. Hillary will drop out prior to the convention. Pelosi, Reoid, Dean, et. al. will make her an offer she can't refuse, i.e., she will be told that they have polled the superdelegates and she doesn't can't win.

You have been gloom and dooming all this board for months and frankly you haven't a shred of independent information to back up anything you say. I asked you weeks ago to post some links to sources you may have used to come to your conclusions but you ignored my request.

I have no idea what you are referring to. What specific "conclusions" are you referring to?

Personally I think you're a liberal.

I attend CPAC regularly, including the past two years. I am a Rep delegate to the VA state convention. I have been a Rep poll watcher and worked as a Rep volunteer at the 2004 Inaugural Ball. I am a staunch conservative and I will not vote for McCain under any circumstances. I will not be complict in voting for someone whose policies will destroy this country. I will vote my usual straight GOP ticket and leave the office of President blank. My wife and daughter are doing the same thing.

27 posted on 05/01/2008 2:16:22 PM PDT by kabar
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To: Vio24

Maybe you should do some research in logical thought before posting a posit that a GOP loss is inconsequential to the November 08 results and outcome.

You sound like a liberal loon.
This is very bad and the GOP is in for a crushing defeat this year.


28 posted on 05/01/2008 3:22:36 PM PDT by bill1952 (I will vote for McCain if he resigns his Senate seat before this election.)
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