Posted on 05/03/2008 5:00:58 AM PDT by wildbill
The American economy lost 20,000 jobs in April, the fourth consecutive month of decline, in what many economists took as powerful evidence that the United States is almost certainly now ensnared in a recession.
But the number of jobs reported lost by the Labor Department on Friday was significantly smaller than most analysts had predicted, and the unemployment rate nudged down to 5 percent, raising hopes that the economy may not suffer as severely as once feared.
“It strongly argues that this downturn will be mild and short- lived,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “As long as businesses hold the line on their layoffs, the economy will weaken, but it won’t unravel.”
On Wall Street, investors bought into that thinking, bidding stocks up sharply in morning trading before pulling back in the afternoon, pushing the Dow Jones industrial average up 0.4 percent for the day, to close at 13,058.40, a new high for 2008.
In total, the household survey offered a counterpoint to the rest of the report, finding a net increase of 362,000 people employed in April.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
They found a way to make some good news look bad.
First time ever! [/s]
There is no doubt in my mind that the business reporters at the NYT have Freightliner on speed-dial, seeing that heavy truck (tractor) manufacturing is one of the most economically-sensitive and cyclical industries on the planet.
I heard on the radio that the increase was much smaller than expected, as evidenced by the rise in the Dow.
Except it isn't. What a quandry...
LOL, I guess the standard now for powerful evidence is being almost sure. Kind of fits in with leftist idiot's MO does it not.
“In a recent international auto race, the Russian Lada finished second while the American Ford finished second to last.”
Sounds like the NYT has been taking lessons from Pravda.
The dollar has gone from a record low against the Euro of $1.60 to almost $1.54.
That’s almost six hundred ‘pips’ to currency traders and is significant as an indicator of what the big boys of finance think about the U.S. economy against the rest of the world.
Not to mention how the strengtheing dollar directly affects the price of commodities such as oil.
The rest of the employment numbers don’t support it.
If we did have a real net increase in people employed, we would see a greater than inflation increase in wages and a decrease in the number of part time workers.
One of the problems with economy being dependent on the housing bubble is many people were “self-employed” (handymen, house flippers, RE Agents, etc) or under the table. And when you are self-employed, you can’t file for unemployment insurance.
The two driving factors to this recession is the “weak dollar” and the Credit uncertainty.
We still aren’t sure of the extent of the bad loans. The banks are still trying to keep this house of cards going and until we figure out what our exposure is (and it’s everybody’s risk now) the economy is going to still be sluggish.
Here is a little secret...the so called experts that make economic predictions every month are always wrong. The markets move based on just how wrong they were. The whole system is rediculous.
Just because the job loss number was less than expected doesn’t mean that 4 straight months of job losses isn’t negative.
Here is another secret, they revise the actual numbers that come out when they have all of the data in. So, the actual economic data numbers that move the market based on just how wrong the experts were are wrong as well.
Don’t be surprised if when they revise the GDP number, it comes back negative.
Wishful thinking doesn't make it so.
the big economist the slimes is citing is that dope paul krugman who is right less often than a stopped watch!!!!
if this is how bad the economy is now....just wait until either the piaps or b. HUSSEIN with piglosi & reid are running everything!!!
Here’s the comparable AP headline and first line.
Economy shows resilience; jobless rate falls as dollar rises
Friday May 2, 4:42 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Economy shows unexpected bounce: Jobless rate declines, dollar shows a bit of muscle
“In a recent international auto race, the Russian Lada finished second while the American Ford finished second to last.”
Sounds like the NYT has been taking lessons from Pravda.”
Like the story of how George Bush was boating one day on the Potomac, got out of the boat and walked on water all the way to the shore.
The next day the headline in the NY Slimes was, “President Bush Can’t Swim.”
Journalists ought to study economics rather than marxist pornography.
>>>>>”many economists took as powerful evidence that the United States is almost certainly now ensnared in a recession.
The MSM was salivating for recession numbers on Monday.
Now that they have nothing of the kind, they simply make it up citing “many economists” (akin to Katy Couric’s infamous “some people say”).
It’s hard to express how utterly despicable is the American press.
The household survey is one of the two ways of estimating employment. It includes people working but not necessarily earning a wage that week. I believe that 60,000 households are surveyed.
The establishment survey is based upon the number of people employed and earning wages at businesses. I believe that 400,000 businesses are surveyed. (200,000?) These figures are almost always adjusted up or down.
It's the same argument every time employment becomes an issue. To wit, household survey v. establishment survey.
LOL!
“sound like the nyt has been taking lessons from pravda.”
the nyt IS pravda. it has been translplanted from soviet russia.
imho
Just a few years ago the controversy raged. My favorite talk show hosts -- who surely know better -- railed about MSM distortions and Bush bashing when it was reported that 16,000 jobs had been created despite official government figures showing that 400,000 jobs had been created.
The stuff below is from BLS definitions.
An employment definition difference:
Household includes the unincorporated self employed, unpaid family workers, agriculture and related workers, private household workers, and workers absent without pay
Establishment survey excludes all of the groups listed above, except for the logging component of agriculture and related industries
The payroll [establishment] survey sample does not include new firms immediately. They are incorporated with a lag.
The payroll survey provides a highly reliable gauge of monthly change in nonfarm wage and salary employment. . . The payroll survey offers industry and geographic information at very detailed levels.
The household survey provides a broader picture of employment including agriculture and the self employed, as well as detailed information on the demographic composition of the employed and the unemployed.
Yep, their drive to make it happen hasn't achieved the impact that they so desired.
The MSM is losing their power of coercion and they don't like facing reality. : )
They both tote the same agenda...
Just D#mn!
Of course being hit the hardest is a relative conveyance.
Journalist's?
Hit 'em hard...Git 'er done! IMO
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