Skip to comments.Major Arctic sea ice melt is expected this summer
Posted on 05/04/2008 10:45:34 AM PDT by kingattax
WASHINGTON - The Arctic will remain on thinning ice, and climate warming is expected to begin affecting the Antarctic also, scientists said Friday.
"The long-term prognosis is not very optimistic," atmospheric scientist Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University said at a briefing.
Last summer sea ice in the North shrank to a record low, a change many attribute to global warming.
But while solar radiation and amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are similar at the poles, to date the regions have responded differently, with little change in the South, explained oceanographer James Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
What researchers have concluded was happening, was that in the North, global warming and natural variability of climate were reinforcing one another, sending the Arctic into a new state with much less sea ice than in the past.
"And there is very little chance for the climate to return to the conditions of 20 years ago," he added.
On the other hand, Overland explained, the ozone hole in the Antarctic masked conditions there, keeping temperatures low in most of the continent other than the peninsula reaching toward South America.
"So there is a scientific reason for why we're not seeing large changes in the Antarctic like we're seeing in the Arctic," he said.
But, Overland added, as the ozone hole recovers in coming years, global warming will begin to affect the South Pole also.
The briefing covered data being reported in a paper scheduled for publication next week in Eos, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.
Overland said he used to be among those skeptical about the effects of global climate change. The new findings, which he termed "startling," were developed at a recent workshop, he said.
There is agreement between weather observations, the output of computer climate models and scientific expectations for what should happen, added Francis.
All the evidence points toward human-made changes at both poles, she said, a conclusion that "further depletes the arsenals of those who insist that human-caused climate change is nothing to worry about."
Climatologist Gareth Marshall of the British Antarctic Survey said that while the term global warming is widely used, things are more complicated at the regional level.
In the Antarctic, he explained, climate change strengthened winds blowing around the continent, helping trap colder air. But that will decrease in the future, allowing warmer conditions to begin, he said.
And, Marshall added, all studies now show that human activities are the drivers of climate change in the Antarctic.
Asked if this summer will match last year's record low sea ice in the North, Overland that is likely.
"The tea leaves point to a minimal amount of sea ice next September, that would be the same as we had last summer, 40 percent loss compared to 20 years ago," he said. Overland added that the winter freeze got a late start last fall.
Francis added: "Over this entire fall, winter and right up 'till today the ice concentration, the amount of ice that's floating around on the Arctic, has been below normal every single day."
"All arrows are pointing towards, certainly not a recovery, something like we had last summer and possibly worse," she said.
Sunlight shines just after midnight on a fjord near the Norwegian Arctic town of Longyearbyen in this April 26, 2007 file photo. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir
Great! Maybe the Canadians can start raising corn and wheat in the Northwest Territories and help with the food crisis. It couldn’t come at a better time.
Didn’t the “so-called” experts predict a warmer/dryer winter too?
They have to keep the HOAX going somehow.
How about conditions a thousand years ago when it was warmer than it is now?
Ice melts in summer who knew ?!
Who knew -Oh, and they already warned us that the mid-west desert is getting warm - WOW
So that's where the global warming scientists are getting their information.
LOL...this discovery will stand modern 'science' on it's ear
“all studies now show that human activities are the drivers of climate change in the Antarctic”
What at crock!
Overland added, as the ozone hole recovers in coming years
Now it’s recovering?
Somehow the article managed to avoid mentioning that more Arctic sea ice developed this winter than in about 100 years.
I wonder why?
Just another sad consequence of Global Warming.
Uhhhh . . . no, you don’t. You really don’t.
Yes, interesting, it kinda melts in July and August in the northern hemisphere, and then it kinda melts in December and January in the southern hemisphere. This is a perplexing scientific mystery. //sarc//
Was talking to a moronic moobat last night. Showed him the spaceweather.com photo for the day showing no sunspots. His response? Spaceweather.com is run by the government, which is owned by the oil companies, so the picture was a fake. Not kidding, he really was that stupid. Sad thing is he votes...
Even leaving aside the absurdity of trying long-term prediction of a chaotic dynamical system, it seems the climate models left out the negative feedback effect of Arctic ice melting: the extra moisture falls as snow on land (of which there is a disproportionate amount in the Arctic, sub-Arctic and northern temperate zones) increasing the albedo of the earth, resulting in cooling sufficient to produce a colder and longer (in weather terms) winter.
(I’ve been pointing this flaw out for years to anyone who would listen, but then again I’m just a pure mathematician, so what could I know about mathematical models?)
Next headline: Major arctic sea ice freeze is expected this winter.
(Too bad they'll never write that article.)
"atmospheric scientist?" Try ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR of marine science. http://marine.rutgers.edu/~francis/
According to a US Fish and Wildlife person I spoke with- the Bering sea ice in the winter of 06-07 was further south than in the past 20 or so years- he attributes some of the warming seen in the past few years to the lack of significant volcano activity for past 10- 15 years- also, increased solar activity could be responsible but both instances are temporary- maybe so- who knows?
Terribly sad photo, that desperate polar bear clinging to an ice cube.
But I’m not convinced about Global Warming, as here in the Pacific Northwest, we’ve had exactly two sunny days in the last six months and I’m still bundling up in woolen scarves and mittens. Much too cold and wet here to even attempt to put in a garden. That polar bear might do well living on my lawn catching squirrels and raccoons for dinner.
Only until GLOBAL COOLING becomes the mantra (as was the case 30+ years ago)!
That poor polar bear.
We must do all we can to stop carbon emissions immediately.
If another ice age came tomorrow, they would still blame it on “climate change.”
Climate Change is the perfect theory...no matter what the weather, it can always be blamed on capitalism.
There’s another consequence of Global Warming that I’ll bet no one around here has thought of. The Blob!
I just watched the 1959 movie the other day, and because the Blob becomes dysfunctional in freezing conditions, they airlifted it to the North Pole. If we have Global Warming, then the Blob will thaw out and come and get us all!
So that's where the global warming scientists are getting their information.
My general impression is that tea leaves yield much better predictions than the climate scientists.
Sheesh murron, first we have this horrifying article about Siberian Perma-Frost Farts, then you go and scare the beejeebers outta me even further by reminding me of the 1959 "BLOB" disposition.
Why didn't those guys in '59 think about what Gorebull Warming would unleash upon their grandkiddies?
Little change in the South ice?
The ice is growing in Antarctica at a pretty good clip last I heard.
I keep asking the question on who plugged it but nobody can give me an answer.............
It seems like that would depend on where you live(?)
New sea ice is salty — that’s why it thaws at a much cooler temperature than fresh water ice.
After about a year, the salt leaves the ice & it now becomes “old sea ice”. Old sea ice is much harder to melt — because it’s no longer brackish.
It’s a safe bet that a lot of the “new ice” formed last winter will melt this summer (it always does). Any that doesn’t melt this summer will become “old ice”, and be much more difficult to melt in future years.
In other words; the Arctic ice cover could be rebuilding — and this has the global warming alarmists; well, alarmed.
Next, we’ll be hearing about the beluga whales that are dying, because there isn’t enough open water for them to surface for breathing. It’ll be blamed on “climate change” due to SUV drivers.
Too late. The Blob has already thawed out and is very active in Massachusetts and Washington, DC.
I’m surprised Sheila Jackson Lee has not brought this up.
Some half-brained associate professor fresh out of college throws an alarmist press release out, some half-wit journalist picks it up, interviews the associate professor, gets an article published.
Two weeks later, some “Institution” calls said professor and offers them a grant to further study the end of the world being brought on by man. Scientist gets money, journalist gets headline, priest of Global Warming gets more influence.
The scientific community must eat. And they know who butters their bread. I suggest you all read about Dr. Roger Revelle to understand how this works.
I'd venture that what Overland found startling was the profitability to be found in the manufacturing of koolaide.
Not even close!
Be careful what you wish for. There have been very few sunspots since the first of the year. Some of them are from the old cycle, and only a couple from the new one. The longer we have a dearth of sunspots, the more likely we'll be going into a 'sunspot minimum'. Previous minimums, such as the Maunder Minimum, in the Middle Ages, and the Dalton Minimum, in the late 1700's and early 1800's caused much colder than normal temperatures. In fact, the Maunder Minimum is considered a Little Ice Age.
I'm proposing, if we, in fact, are heading into a sunspot minimum, it should be named the Al Gore Minimum, just to emphasize what a goober he truly is for pushing this Global Warming carp!
What an unmitigated idiot!