Posted on 05/06/2008 7:51:17 AM PDT by Sam's Army
Unintentionally funny, because of the sheer arrogance.
Right now, the United States has about 105,000 ventilators. Of these, 100,000 are needed in a typical flu season.
This means if H5N1 maintains anything like its 60% mortality rate, *with* ventilators for the other 40% infected, it is likely that mortality could rise to 75%, *without* ventilators.
And since the adults, from age about 20-40 are hit worst, much of the world that remains will be under 20 and over 40.
That is, there will be a “lost generation”.
Granted, because there will still be significant mortality among the under-20 young and over-40 age group, the situation will develop:
1) Doctors can tell from a lung X-Ray who will live and who will die.
2) The under-20 young will be more inclined to survive *with ventilation*, so they will get priority care with ventilators.
3) Adults over-40 will probably not have much access to ventilators except the politically powerful and wealthy, but the majority might be able to reduce the severity of the disease with immunosuppressant drugs. This age group will also be most likely to survive by disease avoidance through self-segregation.
4) People in the categories of the article might actually be better off than most, especially if they have older health care providers. That is, younger people will be out and about more, exposing themselves to the disease; but older and infirm people would have to have the disease transported to them.
All told, the very idea of triage in such a pandemic is almost laughable. It will NOT be up to doctors as to who will live and who will die. All they can do is look at the X-Rays, and give those young children who can survive the ventilators they need to survive.
As a final irony, those who survive the disease will to a great extent have lifelong severe lung damage. So there will be lots of survivors who are as crippled as people who have emphysema. They will be the long term victims of the killer influenza.
I suppose the only plus side will be after the plague is done, there will be many years of great prosperity around the world. High wages, low prices, much less government, and fewer and smaller wars.
Shortages and rationing are an inevitable end result of socialized anything.
Under normal circumstances, yes, but in a disaster they have the training, the ability, and the legal authority to decide who will benefit from treatment, and will therefore survive with treatment, and who will not.
With scarce resources (there are only so many doctors, rooms, medicines and hours) not treating the walking dead is essential for the survival of the maximum number of people
In a disaster, really.
It's not so much denying care to patient A who will die regardless, nor denying care to patient B who will live regardless, it is making sure that patient C who will only survive with treatment gets treatment.
There are some green weenies who want to do just that. Only it is a lot younger than 85.
That, and there are abundant resources to treat everyone who walks, crawls or is wheeled into an ER on any given day.
It's only when resources are scarce (think socialize medicine or a disaster) that real triage (as opposed to scheduling) becomes a necessity.
I'd put good money on them being able to regrow health lungs in 20 years.
bump
I’d not heard the term “Electric Strawberry”, but it does fit.
My late father stood guard during the Cold War (1955-1956) in Hawaii with
The Tropic Lightning.
After being drafted at age 26 (and married), then put through
hotter-than-hell summertime basic training at the ironically-named
Fort Bliss...a year in Hawaii
WAS PARADISE!
http://www.25idl.army.mil/divhistory.asp
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