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Obama may declare victory on May 20
Herald Sun ^ | 9 May 2008

Posted on 05/08/2008 5:20:18 PM PDT by Aussie Dasher

DEMOCRATIC White House hopeful Barack Obama said today he could declare victory over Hillary Clinton on May 20, when Kentucky and Oregon may put him over the top in terms of elected delegates.

"If at that point we have the majority of pledged delegates, which is possible, then I think we can make a pretty strong claim that we have got the most runs and it's the ninth inning and we have won," he told NBC television, referring to the final inning of a baseball game.

"But, you know, I think it is also important for us to, if we win, do so in a way that brings the party together," said the Illinois senator, who has refused to join calls for Senator Clinton to quit the acrimonious race.

"One of the obvious big concerns that all of us have is making sure that we focus our attention on the Republicans in the fall, and we're in a strong position to do that," Senator Obama said.

According to his campaign, Senator Obama needs just 33 more pledged delegates to reach a majority of the Democratic nominating officials, 1606.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.com.au ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Kentucky; US: Oregon
KEYWORDS: 2008; ky2008; mrsbj; or2008; osamaobama; rats
This bloke does realise he's up against the CLINTONS????
1 posted on 05/08/2008 5:20:19 PM PDT by Aussie Dasher
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To: Aussie Dasher
"If at that point we have the majority of pledged delegates, which is possible, then I think we can make a pretty strong claim that we have got the most runs and it's the ninth inning and we have won,"

Does Obama know nothing about how the game of baseball is played? Being in the 9th inning with a lead is no guarantee of a victory.

2 posted on 05/08/2008 5:23:04 PM PDT by pnh102 (Save America - Ban Ethanol Now!)
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To: Aussie Dasher

Never count out the Clintoons, even when mathematically eliminated they are a threat, and maybe that is when they are at their worst.


3 posted on 05/08/2008 5:23:31 PM PDT by rdl6989
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To: Aussie Dasher

He’s asking for umpire Howard Dean (and the MSM) to call a rainout in the 8th...he may get it...


4 posted on 05/08/2008 5:24:08 PM PDT by scrabblehack
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To: Aussie Dasher

He can declare all he wants....wishing don’t make it so.


5 posted on 05/08/2008 5:24:30 PM PDT by yldstrk (My heros have always been cowboys--Reagan and Bush)
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To: Aussie Dasher

We all hear how "close" the Democratic Primaries are and how much Obama is so dominant in the hearts and minds of the average everyday Democratic voter.

Well if we looked at the Obama v. Clinton match-up in terms of the electoral college - we'd see a very different outlook.

Presidential elections are won or lost based on Electoral College votes, not based on "delegates", "superdelegates", party caucuses or total popular vote.

States that hold Primary Elections allow the VOTERS to choose their candidate, as opposed to states that hold caucuses in which voters don't go to the polls but rather Party-insiders do the voting.

And so to get a clearer picture of the Democratic outlook - I looked through the lens of Primary Election results only and then counted those results in terms of Electoral Votes for each of those states to see whether Obama or Clinton would have an easier time gaining the 270 necessary Electoral Votes to become President.

And so by tallying up the States won in the Primary Elections (where voters decide the result, not party-insiders) by Obama and Clinton based on their Electoral College votes - here are the results:

STATE - Electoral Votes (Primary Election Winner)
Alabama - 9 (Obama )
Connecticut - 7 (Obama )
Delaware - 3 (Obama )
District Of Columbia - 3 (Obama )
Georgia - 15 (Obama )
Illinois - 21 (Obama )
Louisiana - 9 (Obama )
Maryland - 10 (Obama )
Mississippi - 6 (Obama )
Missouri - 11 (Obama )
North Carolina - 15 (Obama )
South Carolina - 8 (Obama )
Utah - 5 (Obama )
Vermont - 3 (Obama )
Virginia - 13 (Obama )
Wisconsin - 10 (Obama )
148 Primary Electoral Votes For Obama.

Arizona - 10 (Clinton )
Arkansas - 6 (Clinton )
California - 55 (Clinton )
Florida - 27 (Clinton )
Indiana - 11 (Clinton )
Massachusetts - 12 (Clinton )
Michigan - 17 (Clinton )
New Hampshire - 4 (Clinton )
New Jersey - 15 (Clinton )
New Mexico - 5 (Clinton )
New York - 31 (Clinton )
Ohio - 20 (Clinton )
Oklahoma - 7 (Clinton )
Pennsylvania - 21 (Clinton )
Rhode Island - 4 (Clinton )
Tennessee - 11 (Clinton )
Texas - 34 (Clinton )
290 Primary Electoral votes For Clinton.

Woah! Looks like Clinton has a HUGE lead when it comes to where it counts state-by-state - 1) Actual voters and 2) Electoral Count.

Oh - well - what about the Caucus states. Shirley all the states won by Obama would make a big difference wouldn't it?

Okay - let's add in the Caucus states and add up those Electoral College Votes too. However - an odd thing happened in Texas, they had a Primary AND a Caucus - and the results were split between Obama and Clinton, Clinton won the Primary and Obama won the Caucus. So to be fair, I'll give EACH of them the full amount of Texas Electoral Votes:

STATE - Electoral Votes (Caucus Election Winner)
Alaska - 3 (Obama )
Colorado - 9 (Obama )
Hawaii - 4 (Obama )
Idaho - 4 (Obama )
Iowa - 7 (Obama )
Kansas - 6 (Obama )
Maine - 4 (Obama )
Minnesota - 10 (Obama )
Nebraska - 5 (Obama )
North Dakota - 3 (Obama )
Texas - 34 (Obama )
Washington - 11 (Obama )
Wyoming - 3 (Obama )
103 Caucus Electoral Votes For Obama.

Nevada - 5 (Clinton)
5 Caucus Electoral Votes For Clinton.

And so what's the grand total - in terms of Electoral Votes for each?

Clinton: 295 Total Electoral Votes
Obama: 251 Total Electoral Votes

* remember, Texas is counted in for each candidate because they each won there.

Personally - I actually happen to think the State Primary Election results are FAR more telling than the party-insider polls done for State Caucus elections.

ETA: And if you look just at "swing" states who had Primary Elections, those states that are going to be the main battlegrounds and ususally determine the outcome of the elections:

Ohio - 20 (Clinton )
Pennsylvania - 21 (Clinton )
Florida - 27 (Clinton )
New Hampshire - 4 (Clinton )
Wisconsin - 10 (Obama )


Bottomline: Don't quit Hill! You can still win this!! LOL!



6 posted on 05/08/2008 5:25:48 PM PDT by The_Macallan
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To: Aussie Dasher

I was thinking today he ought to start acting like this is over - like he’s the nominee. He’s been trying to be conciliatory and humble, but enough is enough. He ought to announce his VP and start proposing his presidential cabinet/advisers.

It made a huge difference in public perception when Bush did just this during Florida 2000.


7 posted on 05/08/2008 5:25:48 PM PDT by randita (I'm a "typical white person" and I voted for Lynn Swann.)
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To: rdl6989

The Clintons are like a dead rattle snake. You had better bury the head after you kill it.


8 posted on 05/08/2008 5:29:55 PM PDT by unkus
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To: The_Macallan
Clinton: 295 Total Electoral Votes
Obama: 251 Total Electoral Votes

Winning the majority of the democrats in a state has nothing to do with winning the majority of the popular votes. Flawed logic.

9 posted on 05/08/2008 5:34:41 PM PDT by zeebee
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To: Aussie Dasher
So, like all Affirmative Actions policies, the bar is lowered for Senator Obama as he declares victory without the required number of pledged delegates; the super delegates won't be counted till the convention.
10 posted on 05/08/2008 5:36:14 PM PDT by TexasCajun
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To: Aussie Dasher
majority of pledged delegates?

Looks like the dems want to disenfranchise their own voters.

Operation Chaos members,the word is; "Cardinal",I repeat, the word is "Cardinal";)

11 posted on 05/08/2008 5:36:37 PM PDT by mdittmar (May God watch over those who serve,and have served,to keep us free)
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To: Aussie Dasher
The MSM will go orgasmic over this event. They will give Obama tons of coverage and Obama will leap to a big leap in the polls. The race will be on. Hopefully McCain will be able to recover.
12 posted on 05/08/2008 5:43:18 PM PDT by Uncle Hal
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To: Aussie Dasher

13 posted on 05/08/2008 5:44:38 PM PDT by The_Republican (Ovaries of the World Unite! Rush, Laura, Ann, Greta - Time for the Ovulation!)
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To: mdittmar

What is “Cardinal”?


14 posted on 05/08/2008 5:47:20 PM PDT by unkus
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To: Aussie Dasher
RUSH: Mrs. Clinton needs to demand counting the popular vote in Michigan and Florida. She needs to demand this! She then perhaps should do what liberals always do in the end and take the whole matter to court. As for the votes in Michigan and Florida, I have a question: Will the Democrat Party become the party of disenfranchisement? Will it become the party that denies millions of people the right to participate in their own electoral process? Will it become the party where some votes count more than others? Will the Democrat Party become the party of back-room deals? The Justice Department civil rights division should investigate the Democrat Party's rules, and Mrs. Clinton should call for this. Those rules disenfranchise millions of voters, including minority voters in Michigan and Florida, and the Democrats are very concerned about the minority vote, and there's a bunch of minorities in Florida and Michigan whose votes are not going to matter a hill of beans to the nomination process.(cont.)



RUSH: Stay in the Race, Mrs. Clinton; Investigate the Undemocratic DNC!
15 posted on 05/08/2008 5:48:36 PM PDT by Miss Didi ("Good heavens, woman, this is a war not a garden party!" Dr. Meade, Gone with the Wind)
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To: Aussie Dasher

Interesting political move.

Obama has just claimed victory by saying that he intends to.

Clinton has got to be in meltdown...perhaps even homicidal.


16 posted on 05/08/2008 5:49:01 PM PDT by Gator113 (Obama is a member of the Far Wright Conspiracy.......)
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To: The_Republican

“Here’s to send all your stupid white asses to “camp”.


17 posted on 05/08/2008 5:49:10 PM PDT by Stentor
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To: randita

Obama cabinet:

Secretary of Defense - John Vietnam Kerry
Secretary of State - Nancy Pelosi
Secretary of Education and Swimming - Ted Kennedy
Secretary of Homeland Security - Osama Ben Ladin


18 posted on 05/08/2008 5:49:24 PM PDT by ExTexasRedhead
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To: The_Republican

19 posted on 05/08/2008 5:50:39 PM PDT by Miss Didi ("Good heavens, woman, this is a war not a garden party!" Dr. Meade, Gone with the Wind)
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To: Aussie Dasher

“Obama may declare victory on May 20”

A bit presumptuous is this dark-skinned fellow, eh?

- John


20 posted on 05/08/2008 5:51:04 PM PDT by Fishrrman
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To: Miss Didi

Obama was seen partying with Mariah Carey? What a scandal!


21 posted on 05/08/2008 5:53:54 PM PDT by GnL
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To: unkus
What is “Cardinal”?

Did you recieve your decoder ring and map?

22 posted on 05/08/2008 5:59:46 PM PDT by mdittmar (May God watch over those who serve,and have served,to keep us free)
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To: mdittmar

“Did you recieve your decoder ring and map?”

Not yet.
Special courier to arrive tomorrow at 10:00 AM, MST


23 posted on 05/08/2008 6:03:05 PM PDT by unkus
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To: Aussie Dasher

Note to Obambi - you don’t tease a rabid dog backed into a corner.


24 posted on 05/08/2008 6:10:41 PM PDT by Apercu ("A man's character is his fate" - Heraclitus)
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To: Aussie Dasher

This Hillary Quote from USA Today (FR doesn’t allow posting USA Today Articles):

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-05-07-clintoninterview_N.htm

“I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on,” she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article “that found how Sen. Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me.”

COMMENT:

WOW! Who would have thunk that someon could say that. That guys is not good because his WHITE SUPPORT is weak. Imagine a Republican uttering those words.

Klintons, they will destroy Dems! I almost want to say God Bless them! LOL!


25 posted on 05/08/2008 6:10:43 PM PDT by The_Republican (Ovaries of the World Unite! Rush, Laura, Ann, Greta - Time for the Ovulation!)
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To: unkus
There will be no further communique.
-30-
26 posted on 05/08/2008 6:11:25 PM PDT by mdittmar (May God watch over those who serve,and have served,to keep us free)
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To: Aussie Dasher

I’m sorry but I just don’t see Kentucky or WV going to BO? Oregon maybe but not either of the first two states.

I also think after the super delegetes see their FBI files they may not be singing BO tune anymore, that is right after the Clinton’s drop the other shoe on them. I truely believe that if she doesn’t get the nomination that BO will be so damaged that only the eggheads and blacks will vote for him, There is afterall always 2012 for Hil.


27 posted on 05/08/2008 6:13:23 PM PDT by chris_bdba
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To: Aussie Dasher
Mission accomplished, right MSM? Oh he's not GW He's your chosen one.
28 posted on 05/08/2008 6:18:31 PM PDT by truegris (Vote for the lesser of three evils I always say.)
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To: GnL
As another FReeper pointed out today, notice how he's gazing at her cleavage.
29 posted on 05/08/2008 6:21:26 PM PDT by Miss Didi ("Good heavens, woman, this is a war not a garden party!" Dr. Meade, Gone with the Wind)
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To: Aussie Dasher

“referring to the final inning of a baseball game”

(for all you Democrat voters out there)


30 posted on 05/08/2008 6:29:46 PM PDT by Ghost of Philip Marlowe (If Hillary is elected, her legacy will be telling the American people: Better put some ice on that.)
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To: chris_bdba
I also think after the super delegetes see their FBI files they may not be singing BO tune anymore, that is right after the Clinton’s drop the other shoe on them.

unless the MSM is willing to go along the files are worthless
31 posted on 05/08/2008 6:32:57 PM PDT by uncbob
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To: The_Macallan
Bottomline: Don't quit Hill! You can still win this!! LOL!

That is a STUPID analysis.

You can't count by 'electoral college' votes. That is not how the Democrats primaries are setup. They are actually voting along CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT LINES and not along STATE lines. By the way - Caucuses are NOT just for party insiders - they are for any voter that cares to show up. SO THAT POINT IS ALSO ABSURD. At the Democrat primaries in Texas, they had known Republicans in with the Democrats. The only qualification to get in was a desire to vote and to be willing to spend the time to do so.

THE ELECTORAL ANALYSIS IS ALSO ABSURD. If there was a state with exactly 3 democrats in it and 10,000,000 million Republicans in it. Lets say Hillary gets 2 votes and Obama gets 1 vote. When the general election comes along, the vote will be 10,000,000 to either 3, 2 or 1 !!! So just because somebody 'wins' a state, it doesn't mean that they are going to win that state in the general election and gain those electoral college votes. Just because somebody lost a state in the primaries, does not mean that they will lose that state in the general election.

PLEASE TAKE THAT 'CLINTON SPEAK' SOMEWHERE ELSE.

32 posted on 05/08/2008 7:15:50 PM PDT by Pikachu_Dad
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To: zeebee; Pikachu_Dad

First of all, you guys know nothing of intent of "Operation Chaos".

Second of all, Clinton won the states that the Dems NEED to win (Big States, Swing States). Who cares if Obama can win a bunch of Party-insider Caucuses and small states (most of which aren't gonna be in play for them anyway)?

Thirdly, lighten up Francis.

33 posted on 05/08/2008 7:26:15 PM PDT by The_Macallan
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To: The_Macallan
First of all, you guys know nothing of intent of "Operation Chaos".

Oh right... Rush has talked about his intent for months. Give it a rest. And frankly, it is UNETHICAL to mess with another parties nomination process.

Second of all, Clinton won the states that the Dems NEED to win (Big States, Swing States).

Again - primary elections give no clue as to who will take a particular state when the general election starts. Most of those voters are democrats and will vote for their candidate when push comes to shove in the general. Who cares if Obama can win a bunch of Party-insider Caucuses and small states (most of which aren't gonna be in play for them anyway)?

Again, caucuses are open to all voters not just insiders. They are an extremely valid method of selecting your parties nominee - even more so that general votes.

As for the small states - they count and are just as important as the large states. Citizens of this country do not become second class citizens just because they belong to a small state.

Thirdly, lighten up Francis.

34 posted on 05/08/2008 9:09:40 PM PDT by Pikachu_Dad
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To: Pikachu_Dad; The_Macallan
And frankly, it is UNETHICAL to mess with another parties nomination process.

Tough cookies to the Democrats, who've been meddling with votes and engaging in vote fraud for years. Maybe now we'll finally make a push for closed primaries on BOTH sides.

35 posted on 05/08/2008 11:11:07 PM PDT by Ultra Sonic 007 (Look at all the candidates. Choose who you think is best. Choose wisely in 2008.)
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