Why the Cyclone in Myanmar Was So Deadly

National Geographic News ^ | 5-8-2008 | AP - Michael Casey

[blam]

Why the Cyclone in Myanmar Was So Deadly

Michael Casey in Bangkok, Thailand
Associated Press
May 8, 2008

It was Asia's answer to Hurricane Katrina—though with a reported 100,000 killed, it was many times more deadly.

Packing winds upward of 120 miles an hour (193 kilometers an hour), Cyclone Nargis became one of Asia's deadliest storms by hitting land at one of the lowest points in Myanmar (also called Burma) and setting off a storm surge that reached 25 miles (40 kilometers) inland.

"When we saw the [storm] track, I said, 'Uh oh, this is not going to be good,'" said Mark Lander, a meteorology professor at the University of Guam.

"It would create a big storm surge. It was like Katrina going into New Orleans."

"Cyclone" is the name given to a hurricane when it occurs in the northern Indian Ocean or, as is the case with Cyclone Nargis, the Bay of Bengal (see map). (Get the basics on hurricanes/cyclones.)

Deadly Path

Forecasters began tracking the cyclone April 28 as it first headed toward India. As projected, the storm took a sharp turn eastward. But it didn't follow the typical cyclone track, which leads to Bangladesh or Myanmar's mountainous northwest.

Instead, the cyclone swept into the low-lying Irrawaddy River Delta in central Myanmar. The result was the worst disaster ever in the impoverished country.

It was the first time such an intense storm is known to have hit the delta, said Jeff Masters, co-founder and director of meteorology at the San Francisco-based Web site Weather Underground.

He called it "one of those once-in-every-500-years kind of things."

"The easterly component of the path is unusual," Masters said. "It tracked right over the most vulnerable part of the country, where most of the people live." When the storm made landfall early Saturday at the mouth of the Irrawaddy River, the cyclone's battering winds pushed a wall of water as tall as 12 feet (3.7 meters) some 25 miles (40 kilometers) inland, laying waste to villages and killing tens of thousands.

Most of the dead were in the delta, where farm families sleeping in shacks barely above sea level were swept to their deaths.

Almost 95 percent of the houses and other buildings in seven townships were destroyed, Myanmar's government says. UN officials estimate 1.5 million people were left in severe straits.

"When you look at the satellite picture of before and after the storm, the effects look eerily similar to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in how it inundated low-lying areas," said Ken Reeves, director of forecasting for AccuWeather.com.

The Irrawaddy Delta "is huge, and the interaction of water and land lying right at sea level allowed the tidal surge to deliver maximum penetration of sea water over land," Reeves said.

"Storms like this do most of their killing through floods, with salt water being even more dangerous than fresh water."

The delta had lost most of its mangrove forests along the coast to shrimp farms and rice paddies over the past decade. That removed what scientists say is one of nature's best defenses against violent storms.

"If you look at the path of the [cyclone] that hit Myanmar, it hit exactly where it was going to do the most damage, and it's doing the most damage because much of the protective vegetation was cleared," said Jeff NcNeely, chief scientist for the International Union for Conservation of Nature.

"It's an expensive lesson, but it has been one taught repeatedly," he said. "You just wonder why governments don't get on this."

Global Warming?

Some environmentalists suggested global warming may have played a role.

Last year the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that warming oceans could contribute to increasingly severe cyclones with stronger winds and heavier rains.

"While we can never pinpoint one disaster as the result of climate change, there is enough scientific evidence that climate change will lead to intensification of tropical cyclones," said Sunita Narain, director of the India-based environmental group Centre for Science and Environment.

"Nargis is a sign of things to come," she said.

"The victims of these cyclones are climate change victims, and their plight should remind the rich world that it is doing too little to contain its greenhouse gas emissions."

Weather experts, however, are divided over whether global warming is a factor in catastrophic storms.

At a January conference of the American Meteorological Society, some experts postulated that warmer ocean temperatures may actually reduce the strength of cyclones and hurricanes.

Masters, at Weather Underground, said Wednesday that, in the case of Nargis, the meteorological data in the Indian Ocean region "is too short and too poor in quality to make judgments about whether tropical cyclones have been affected by global warming."

Unnecessary Deaths?

Despite assertions by Myanmar's military government that it had warned people about the storm, critics contend the junta didn't do enough to alert the delta and failed to organize any evacuations, perhaps resulting in unnecessary deaths.

"Villagers were totally unaware," said 38-year-old Khin Khin Myawe, interviewed in the hard-hit delta town of Labutta.

"We knew the cyclone was coming but only because the wind was very strong. No local authorities ever came to us with information about how serious the storm was."

The India Meteorological Department, one of six regional warning centers set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), began sending regular storm advisories April 27. The information appeared in Myanmar's state-run newspapers, on radio, and on television 48 hours ahead of the storm.

But the international advisories said nothing about a storm surge. And Myanmar, unlike its neighbors Bangladesh and India, has no radar network to help predict the location and height of surges, the WMO said.

There also wasn't any coordinated effort on the part of the junta to move people out of low-lying areas, even though information was available about the expected time and location of landfall.

"How is it possible that there was such a great death toll in the 21st century, when we have imagery from satellites in real time and there are specialized meteorology centers in all the regions?" said Olavo Rasquinho of the UN Typhoon Committee Secretariat.

Bangladesh has a storm-protection system that includes warning sirens, evacuation routes, and sturdy towers to shelter people—measures that were credited with limiting the death toll from last year's Cyclone Sidr to 3,100.

Atiq A. Rahman, executive director of the Bangladesh Center for Advanced Studies and a disaster specialist, said Myanmar's death toll would have been lower if it had had such a system.

"Taking some action to move people from affected areas would have dramatically helped reduce the numbers of causalities. Absolutely," Rahman said.

But junta officials and some weather experts said evacuating a large area with millions of residents would have been nearly impossible, given the poor roads, the distance to some villages, and the likely refusal of some families to leave.

"Even if they warned them, they can't go anywhere. Or they are afraid to go anywhere, because they are afraid of losing their property," said Lander, the University of Guam professor.

"It is debatable how much of a mass exodus you could have had."

[b4its2late]

Bush’s Fault.

[blam]

Before And After Photos Of The Delta

[Billthedrill]

Mr. Casey tactfully refrains from admitting that at least part of the problem is that the Burmese junta refuses to allow relief workers or supplies into the area. Better to blame global warming.

[Bean Counter]

When did Ray Nagin move to Burma??...

[inkling]

If you want to help, click here.

[MetalHeadConservative35]

you forgot the part that karl rove made the weather machine attack the poor in myanmar for bush so that way bush can invade unopposed

[muawiyah]

"....a wall of water as tall as 12 feet (3.7 meters) some 25 miles (40 kilometers) inland"

This was in the most populous part of the country.

The UN estimates that about 1.5 million people are without housing or cover as a consequence.

All of which is pretty bad as it is, but with that wall of water, and the distance it traveled, in the most densely populated part of the country, the death toll is probably TEN TIMES today's estimate.

Just empty houses ~ frankly, pictures on the ground look like a vast area was raked by large numbers of CAT 5 tornados ~ not just the flood.

Not that I want to start a pool here, or minimize the devastation, but there may not be many people left to aid ~ and I suspect the Burmese army is probably not in good shape either. An enterprising Thai colonel probably ought to see how far he can get before encountering resistance in the area. Bet he can make it to the Iriwaddy estuary.

[hinckley buzzard]

"How is it possible that there was such a great death toll in the 21st century, when we have imagery from satellites in real time and there are specialized meteorology centers in all the regions?"

Because, you moron, you're dealing with a goverment run by a military junta who couldn't care less about their pathetic subjects. Geez. UN, grow up.

[Eye On The Left]

Al Gore Calls Myanmar Cyclone a 'Consequence' of Global Warming

"Using tragedy to advance an agenda has been a strategy for many global warming activists, and it was just a matter of time before someone found a way to tie the recent Myanmar cyclone to global warming.

Former Vice President Al Gore in an interview on NPR’s May 6 'Fresh Air' broadcast did just that. He was interviewed by “Fresh Air” host Terry Gross about the release of his book, 'The Assault on Reason,' in paperback.

'And as we’re talking today, Terry, the death count in Myanmar from the cyclone that hit there yesterday has been rising from 15,000 to way on up there to much higher numbers now being speculated,' Gore said. 'And last year a catastrophic storm from last fall hit Bangladesh. The year before, the strongest cyclone in more than 50 years hit China – and we’re seeing consequences that scientists have long predicted might be associated with continued global warming.'"

http://www.businessandmedia.org/articles/2008/20080506160205.aspx

[ApplegateRanch]

"It's an expensive lesson, but it has been one taught repeatedly," he said. "You just wonder why governments don't get on this."

Because they can't get blood out of turnips, and can't get taxes out of mangrove swamps.

[Whispering Smith]

As we all knew, it is our fault.

[JimSEA]

When you think of the houses that these folks live in and which are normally perfectly adequate, you can understand the death toll. This is a tropical river delta. All you need for a house is a platform on posts above most of the periodic floods, a roof to keep the rain off you and some light material (woven bamboo) for the sides to give privacy. Actually, it is so hot and humid that you don't want any more. Additionally, the delta is only ten to twenty feet above sea level so a storm has little in its way as it sweeps over the rice fields.

Add to the the incredible fact that the f***** generals refused to pass any warning on to these people even though they had it a week in advance with timely critical updates. The same generals have sat on their hands with their troop in the street to preserve order.

Global Warming my a** Human perfidy and evil more likely. That and one hell of a storm.

[Thrownatbirth]

"..their plight should remind the rich world that it is doing too little to contain its greenhouse gas emissions."

I knew we'd be blamed somehow.

[Blood of Tyrants]

Some environmentalists suggested global warming may have played a role.

Last year the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that warming oceans could contribute to increasingly severe cyclones with stronger winds and heavier rains.

Except that the oceans are COOLER THIS YEAR, Nimrods!

[sam_paine]

Subject: G3) How might global warming change hurricane intensity, frequency, and rainfall ?

Contributed by Chris Landsea

In November 2006 the global community of tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters as met at the 6^th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones of the World Meteorological Organization in San Jose, Costa Rica. They released a statement on the links between anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change and tropical cyclones, including hurricanes and typhoons. The following is a summary of their report.

1. There have been a number of recent high-impact tropical cyclone events around the globe. These include 10 landfalling tropical cyclones in Japan in 2004, five tropical cyclones affecting the Cook Islands in a five-week period in 2005, Cyclone Gafilo in Madagascar in 2004, Cyclone Larry in Australia in 2006, Typhoon Saomai in China in 2006, and the extremely active 2004 and 2005 Atlantic tropical cyclone seasons - including the catastrophic socio-economic impact of Hurricane Katrina.
2. Some recent scientific articles have reported a large increase in tropical cyclone energy, numbers, and wind-speeds in some regions during the last few decades in association with warmer sea surface temperatures. Other studies report that changes in observational techniques and instrumentation are responsible for these increases.

Consensus Statements by International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones-VI (IWTC-VI) Participants :

1. Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.
2. No individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.
3. The recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.
4. Tropical cyclone wind-speed monitoring has changed dramatically over the last few decades, leading to difficulties in determining accurate trends.
5. There is an observed multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones in some regions whose causes, whether natural, anthropogenic or a combination, are currently being debated. This variability makes detecting any long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity difficult.
6. It is likely that some increase in tropical cyclone peak wind-speed and rainfall will occur if the climate continues to warm. Model studies and theory project a 3-5% increase in wind-speed per degree Celsius increase of tropical sea surface temperatures.
7. There is an inconsistency between the small changes in wind-speed projected by theory and modeling versus large changes reported by some observational studies.
8. Although recent climate model simulations project a decrease or no change in global tropical cyclone numbers in a warmer climate, there is low confidence in this projection. In addition, it is unknown how tropical cyclone tracks or areas of impact will change in the future.
9. Large regional variations exist in methods used to monitor tropical cyclones. Also, most regions have no measurements by instrumented aircraft. These significant limitations will continue to make detection of trends difficult.
10. If the projected rise in sea level due to global warming occurs, then the vulnerability to tropical cyclone storm surge flooding would increase.

A PDF version of the official report is available here.

---

Revised July 2, 2007

[tbw2]

That’s a lot of land that is just gone, underwater. The death toll is only going to be an estimate.

[blam]

Thailand is not without damage itself.

[SuziQ]

There also wasn't any coordinated effort on the part of the junta to move people out of low-lying areas, even though information was available about the expected time and location of landfall.

Sounds like Ray Nagin and Ma Blanco.

[SuziQ]

"And as we’re talking today, Terry, the death count in Myanmar from the cyclone that hit there yesterday has been rising from 15,000 to way on up there to much higher numbers now being speculated,' Gore said. 'And last year a catastrophic storm from last fall hit Bangladesh. The year before, the strongest cyclone in more than 50 years hit China – and we’re seeing consequences that scientists have long predicted might be associated with continued global warming."

Algore, the climate whore, has spoken.

[blam]

"Global Warming my a** Human perfidy and evil more likely. That and one hell of a storm."

Do you have any reports about the magnitude of damage in Thailand?

[Dick Vomer]

[Eye On The Left]

This just in from the scientific journal Nature:

Nature 453, 84-88 (1 May 2008) | doi:10.1038/nature06921; Received 25 June 2007; Accepted 14 March 2008; Corrected 8 May 2008

Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector

The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic1, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America2, Europe3 and northern Africa4. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known (5, 6, 7), the lack of subsurface ocean observations8 that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions (9). Here we apply a simple approach—that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations—to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state (10), particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast:

Over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged.

Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7191/abs/nature06921.html

[JimSEA]

There are warnings out to all the Central and Northern provinces about excessive rain and likely mudslides but it seems unbelievably mild when you see what happened so nearby.

[NonValueAdded]

There also wasn't any coordinated effort on the part of the junta to move people out of low-lying areas, even though information was available about the expected time and location of landfall.

Ah, so they were Nagin'ed to death.

[blam]

Good. Thanks for the report.

[Eye On The Left]

Gore makes the dishonest claim that it was CO2 that warmed the earth to get us out of these past 4 glaciation periods above (roughly every 100,000, the result of periodic changes in Earth's orbit and spin axis), yet one can clearly see that temperature increases (the blue line) actually PRECEEDED CO2 increases (red line) all throughout this 400,000 year time interval that Gore repeatedly refers to as the 'proof'. In fact, temperature increases precede CO2 increases by an of average 800 years! There really isn't any evidence in the geologic record that CO2 has caused significant global warming. Water vapor, by far, is the most important of the greenhouse gas, accounting for around 75-95% of the GH effect -another "inconvenient truth" Gore left out of his sci-fi flick.(BP = before present).

[Yardstick]

"Storms like this do most of their killing through floods, with salt water being even more dangerous than fresh water."

Why would salt water make a flood more dangerous?

[blam]

"Why would salt water make a flood more dangerous? "

Don't know.

[oneolcop]

When the clothes dry they’re very chafing.

[RobbyS]

Kind of puts Katrina into perspective.

[tet68]

Why would salt water make a flood more dangerous?

Destroys the ability to grow rice?

Not to mention sharks with frikin lazer beams on their heads.

[wafflehouse]

do you water your plants with salt water?

[Yardstick]

do you think they’re talking about plants?

[SuziQ]

Kind of puts Katrina into perspective.

In a free society, people can access information to keep themselves informed. Most folks got themselves out of the path of Katrina, because they heard radio and TV reports about the coming storm.

The ruling junta in Burma didn't bother telling the people in the path of the storm of the danger coming their way, and they didn't have access to other information. The only folks who knew the storm was coming their way were the ones who had access to radio stations beamed into the country, on the order of like Radio Free Europe. The government just flat didn't care how many died.

[wafflehouse]

im no expert, but im thinking theres probably a lot of rice on the menu there. are we not counting the damage or loss of farmable land as destruction?

[JerseyHighlander]

Found these maps and several more made yesterday by www.UNOSAT.org :

http://unosat.web.cern.ch/unosat/asp/prod_free.asp?id=66

Estimated Total Population Living within Flood-Affected Areas, Myanmar
 International Charter Space and Major Disasters

Product ID: 1177 - 6 May, 2008 - English

GLIDE: TC-2008-000057-MMR

Product FOOTPRINT (LAT x LONG, WSG84 Geographic, decimal degrees)
TopLeft: 18.3 x 94.13
BottomRight: 15.6 x 97.75 This map provides an estimate of those potentially-affected people living directly within flooded areas of southern Myanmar. Red areas shown in the map represent standing flood waters identified from MODIS satellite imagery acquired on 5 May 2008 at a spatial resolution of 250m. Population estimates have been aggregated by township using the LandScan 2005 database. This flood detection is a preliminary analysis & has not yet been validated in the field. Map scale for A3: 1:1,200,000; Projection; UTM Zone 46 North; Datum: WGS 1984

Source(s):
Cyclone Data : NOAA, Un.of Hawai‘i, Tropical Storm Risk
GIS Data : USGS, NGA, ESRI, Respond/Keyobs
Population Data : LandScan 2005
Satellite Data : MODIS-Aqua & Terra
Imagery Date : 5 May & 15 April 2008
Resolution : 250m
Flood Analysis : UNOSAT (5 May 2008)
Map Production : UNOSAT (6 May 2008)

UNOSAT_Myanmar_Nargis_PopulationEstimate_Overview_Lowres_v1.pdf (1.1MB),
UNOSAT_Myanmar_Nargis_PopulationEstimate_Overview_Highres_v1.pdf (2.7MB)

[dfwgator]

Not to mention sharks with frikin lazer beams on their heads.

And the ill-tempered sea bass.

[21twelve]

I had read where Myanmar was an exporter of rice (to India and somewhere else). I imagine what is now left will stay home. Amazing and terrible the amount of land (and lives) that is gone looking at that earlier satellite photo.

[Yardstick]

the article is about how the flood managed to kill 100,000 or more people the other day. i don’t see how the saltiness of the water would’ve been a factor in that.

u dig?

[RobbyS]

Even if the government cares, these storms can overwhelm any defences, and if people are in the way, they will die. Can’t blame even the most negligent government for an event of this magnitude. Of course, one can blame them for their poor responses and the general undevelopment of the country.

[RobbyS]

If they were dependent on local supplies of fresh water, then these would inundated. The land will be spoiled.

[yankeedame]

I had read where Myanmar was an exporter of rice (to India and somewhere else). I imagine what is now left will stay home.

No necessarily. At the height of the Soviet famine(s) the government regularly exported Russian grain for cash and/or weapons, leaving international relief agencies to feed the starving.

[21twelve]

Thanks. I think. Well - not really. Now I have to get rid of this pit in my stomach and the disgust in my mouth out. It really does piss me off as I think you are probably exactly right. And our aid will of course be distributed by the junta to “those most deemed in need”.

[wafflehouse]

i suppose you are correct.

"It was Asia's answer to Hurricane Katrina—though with a reported 100,000 killed, it was many times more deadly."

how do you suppose it could be 'many times more deadly'?

[rontorr]

The same generals have sat on their hands with their troop in the street to preserve order
..............

the only thing that they have their attention on is the farce election tomorrow, maybe on Sunday or monday, after a few thousand people die they will give visa to all non American aid workers

[rontorr]

I have not heard about anything happening that was attributed to the cyclone, just some of the usual thunderstorms that cause caused some damage, but in limited areas and that is normal for this time of year

[rontorr]

those warnings were about some monsoons building up in the gulf, and the south china sea, and yesterday, they were speculating some other storms might follow in the wake of nargis

[rontorr]

And our aid will of course be distributed by the junta to “those most deemed in need”.
..............

Which in the case of the Junta means only them and their friends

[Yardstick]

I would say that killing 100,000 versus killing 1000 or so qualifies as being many times more deadly (I can’t remember the official count after Katrina but I think that’s about right - in fact it may have been less than 1000). Or am I missing something here?